S&P Midcap E-Mini 2009-2017 Review

 

Since the 2009 bottom this Midcap SP500 futures chart, has been in a massive bull market containing many wave patterns that just don’t fit well once we try and count it as a true impulse.  It has now lasted well over 8 years, which rules out the possibility of it being a giant bear market rally.

Any real bear market rally would contain far more extreme moves in both directions than what we see now. I see it as a diagonal wave,  which develop in 5th waves regularly. Even if I changed it to a potential single zigzag, it still can be a 5th wave. 

From 1921 to 1929 the same pattern can be seen, but at that time it  came from a Primary degree diagonal 4th wave, which is not the case this time.  The goal is a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, after which we should get one move in Cycle degree, containing 3 moves in Primary degree. 

The present top sure can fit into an ending diagonal, with moves getting violent, but still very small compared to the other wild moves we’ve had. 

In the next 2-3 years, we can expect one of 3 possible simple corrective wave patterns, with any triangle being down at the bottom of our choices. This puts a zigzag or a flat in the running for choices,  with a flat being the top contender at this time. 

Two main price levels that any deep correction can take will retrace the entire rally that started in early 2016, (1200) while the other critical price requirement will be at the 2011 lows. (750) I’m sure the markets will eventually travel much further south than that, but it can also stop well short of the 2009 lows (400).  I’m sure the markets will be in a massive oversold position long before the real bottom arrives, but the majority will be selling as fast as their little algorithms, or mouse clicks can act.    

Of course, as everyone is screaming to get out of the markets, a miracle will happen, as the market hits a bottom and starts to soar on another 8 year journey heading north. 

Be prepared for all this to take at least as long as solar cycle #24 is still alive, but after solar cycle #25 starts by 2021 or so, then all  bearish forecasts will get trashed with no sympathy or mercy. 

At present the intraday markets are still gyrating, so hopefully this will start to clear up sometime soon as we have a bit over 3 months before the 30 year anniversary date of the 1987 stock market crash. Come to think of it, the 1987 crash bottom was also the bottom of solar cycle #21. The markets and our entire planet run on Fibonacci ratios,  and Fibonacci even numbers, so we can’t run and hide from them, but should take advantage of them.