Silver Weekly Chart, Elliott Wave Count Review

It would be fantastic if commodities moved just like stocks do, but the sad fact is that they don’t.  Fear dominates everything in commodities, and the massive leverage all commodities have is one of the main drivers of this fear.  This fear creates the wild spikes that flip flop around, like a fish out of water.  

I have been reviewing my larger degree wave counts, as Cycle degree wave 3 for 2011 may have been too aggressive, and therefore too early with the Cycle degree top. The entire silver bull market, which started in 1993, is one of the best examples of a diagonal run that you can find at this time, which keeps any idealized 5 wave impulse on the endangered species list. 

2016 is now a potential diagonal 4th wave in Intermediate degree, and technically we should get another zigzag to new record highs. This is also when a double top could form with only marginal new highs. That scenario would still be far away, so we do have time before we need to make a major decision.   

With silver it will be a real challenge,  as I don’t think I can switch to 5 diagonal waves up in Minor degree at this time. Switching to a wave count that may be marginal, will help to eliminate it, as any far off wave count will surely fail.

These changes do not necessarily distort any long term bullish view I already have, which is a good thing.  Knocking a Cycle degree wave 3 top down to an Intermediate degree wave 3,  is a change of 2 degree levels.

The mid 2016 peak I show as a wave one in Minute degree, but I may have to change that to a Minor degree. Any time we put a wave count up, it is prone to fail sooner or later, but we have to run them until they no longer make sense. 

I may change gold and oil as well, as all my Cycle degree wave 3 positions regarding commodities, need reviewing.