Palladium Weekly Chart Review




I have been working on palladium for many years, but it represents a pattern that does not conform to good looking impulse waves, so I look at it from a diagonal pattern perspective.  If late 2008 was my 4th wave bottom, then the bullish phase and the subsequent correction look out of sync. It looks like a very long first wave, followed by big choppy sideways pattern between the two trend lines. 

This choppy pattern makes an extremely good fit as a triangle or as an ending diagonal. Which way I can use it will be determined if our recent little correction is going to finish, and then creates one more push to the upside. Right now I’m showing a smaller triangle inside a bigger triangle which I have never counted out or seen before. The triangle would be perfect if the resulting decline fits into a 5 wave impulse decline. 

Palladium did not reach its extreme high in 2011, but its major top was in 2014. This would be very normal for an expanded “B” wave pattern in an expanded flat. 

The start of the 2016 bull run can be a fake, but to keep any bulls trapped, it could add on one more small leg, before palladium swings back down. Right now palladium is in a small degree 4th wave triangle which also serves as a warning. I’m not convinced that palladium is in some secular bull market at this time, but that it has to finish an older bull market first.  A zigzag 5th wave would be the ultimate outcome, and the “B” wave bottom would be the end of this so called correction.  

It all depends how high this 2016 move is still going to go, but I think one more push is highly likely. It may take the rest of September to find out, but gold, silver and oil should follow as well. The 5th wave in Intermediate degree, and the 5th wave in Primary degree would  have to finish before the wave 3 in Cycle degree can find a home.  If Platimum crashes into a $400 low, then I’m sure that palladium can still soar over $1100 for a Cycle degree top.