Nasdaq 1998-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

What we do know is that the Nasdaq walks to a different drummer compared to the other 4 indices. The main issue is that great looking 5 wave decline from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. This sequence cannot fit into any present zigzag we may want to have, and the 2007 peak sure does not fit into a truncated pattern.  I sure don’t feel comfortable using the 2007 peak as a truncated pattern, but this 2007 peak fits well with all the other main indices I cover.

What it all means from my perspective is that we need several alternates going at the same time.  I also show a Megaphone pattern at this time, that may mean nothing in the long run. I would be producing false trend line expectations, if I use two parallel lines.  The question will remain, what is the most likely degree level and wave position, now forming in October of 2017?

The Nasdaq just finished a 6010 peak, with no guarantee that it will stop tomorrow or the next day.  A general guideline how deep the next bear market  can get is what we think is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  This would be that the Nasdaq can retrace most all of its bull market since the 2009 bottom.  The first price level when the Nasdaq enters this previous 4th wave would be at about the 2000 price level. 2000 can be a happy even numbered target, as the markets just love even numbers.

I believe that the 2002 and the 2007 bottom of the Nasdaq represents a major base with the 2002 bottom crashing to the 1996 market lows. 1996 and 2008 are two solar cycle lows and if the markets ever cross both of these lows, I would be very surprised. It’s the markets job to fool everybody all the time, and it would not surprise me if the 2009 bottom never gets retraced by more than 100%.

This future 2000 price level would also come very close to completely retrace, the stock mania that started in 2011. Years ending in 7 can cause great turmoil in the markets, like it has done many times before. The VIX will also move as fear comes back into the market place.

The majority may only be expecting a short correction, but that will never happen if our degree levels are off by one degree.  There is a big difference between a Minor degree wave 3 peak or a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Only time can eventually confirm a wave count, which may take until solar cycle #25 starts in the 2020-2021 time period.

So far the Nasdaq is one index that can give us a lot of grief.  Once the majority hates stocks again, but insiders are buying as a group, then we could see a surprise reversal back into a bull market.