Friday, Crude Oil Intraday Update.

From late May to now, crude oil has been brutalized by the bears, as they are convinced that the “Oil Glut Experts” are right.

Fundamentals can change as fast as the winds can shift them, and just when we finish reporting how bearish crude oil is looking,  crude oil will surprise us, and soar the exact opposite way. I’m not saying this will happen first thing Sunday night, but we are at about a 5.5 month bear market already. 

A big double bottom helps to make a bullish case, as well as the H&S that has now also completed.  I’m looking at the decline as a potential triangle, as too many key waves have overlapped.

 Sure, there are small runs of impulse waves, but they also contain runs that are very hard to justify as impulse waves.   When waves overlap, it also indicates that some type of correction is taking place, and in this case it may be a  triangle “B” wave correction. 

Expecting a triangle in a potential “B” wave correction usually indicates a termination of a bigger trend yet to come. A triangle in this position tells us that only a “C” wave is still to come, and we should not expect any wave 3-4 of Minor degree in our future. 

Mind you the “C” wave could be a long drawn out affair created to make us think, a much higher degree run is taking place. 

When any anticipated rally turns very choppy, then we have to be aware that the bearish decline has not finished and another bearish down leg is still to come.