Euro Bear Market Daily Chart Review



For close to 21 months the Euro has been going sideways with some death defying crashes thrown in to keep us all guessing.  I look at the euro as a big zigzag drop, and this sideways pattern is just a wave 3-4 still playing out. 

From the May 2016 top, the Euro has declined in one ugly set of waves heading down.  These are not impulse waves, as they don’t even come close, even though I have no critical overlapping.

There may be more downside to come in the short term, but longer term we could see the Euro rally if the US dollar starts on a huge decline. This wave is also very short but wave 1-2 and there are evenly extended. When two waves are extended then the last 5th wave has to be the shorter one. This sure seems to be the case at this time. The commercials have been net long for a long time, but this trend chasing speculators, have been net short for just as long. They both can’t be right and in my experience it is more important what the commercial traders do, than what the emotional trend chasers and money managers are doing. The majority of the time the mass media reports to us, what the trend chasers are doing.  Emotional analysts reporting on emotional speculators, is not what we can base any investment ideas on. 

The Euro is just the flip side of the US dollar, so unless some huge diverging action is about to happen, I can see that the Euro has to go up, while the USD declines.