Euro 2008-2016 Review: Has It Gone Far Enough?



It is always important to review back as far as we can when the short term moves are foggy. At the 2008 peak, I am going back to a potential Primary degree wave 3, and creating the bear market with a diagonal set of waves where waves overlap more, but they still have a basic impulse form to them.

The Euro rallied for 2016, but that was a very choppy rally and waves like that usually retrace themselves completely. For this rally to turn into a “C” wave decline, I do not want to see the Euro hit a new record low but stop short, and give us a double bottom.  This would allow a flat to complete, meaning a powerful “C” wave bull market would follow.

Any bull market in the Euro is a good thing for gold as it is one of the inverse currencies that I watch, with the CAD and the AUD being the others.  I have no time to maintain a good wave count on the AUD, but will try and post something on three of them. USD, CAD, EURO.

If the Euro did break to new lows by a small margin, then this would be considered an expanded pattern, and any rally we would get would have a limited life span as well.  Any future rally can break into my wave 1, which would be very close to the top trend line as well.

Every posting, I will try and include or create a Parent category, where I can add several other asset classes of the same type.

I am still getting used to this editor and I end up making errors, but the short story is that all the single currencies that I do look at, should be under the Currencies parent category. I will also include Tag words, but will start to back off using “Elliott Wave Count” as everything on this web site is Elliott Wave related in some way 

Since I am expecting a decline, then in the short term this would not be good for gold and gold stocks. 

The commercials are still net long on the Euro but they added to their short positions last week. I take that as a bit of a bearish signal. In my old bullish consensus reports the Euro hit a low of only 10% bulls, which in the longer term, is very bullish.