Euro 2008-2016 Bear Market Review




Great looking crash, right? Having a very bearish wave count in sympathy with all the other Euro bears will never work, as  downside would be limited at best.   When we look at the commercial traders positions and we find they have  very big net long positions with their Euro, then this puts up an invisible roadblock, that not too many people ever see or even look for. Analysts use the speculators as the smart money as they are being quoted the majority of times. Speculators belong to the managed money crowd or the hedge fund owners.

When was the last time we heard about hedge funds making money consistently? Overall, they are dropping like flies and can become extinct if they refuse to change. 

Not only are the commercials net long in the Euro, but they are also net long with the CAD,  Swiss Franc, Mexican Peso, and GBP.

Numbers like that make it pretty tough for the Euro to create one more big leg down, We may get more downward moves,  but these should be limited in scope.

Either way the top trend line should get sliced if we are in an “E” wave type move.   When all the euro trader’s positions invert, then we know that the Euro will either correct or just head into another bear market.  

From the May, 2011 peak, the Euro declined in one ugly move, that I can only call a diagonal 5 waves down, as we have some very choppy waves, that make the US dollar waves look pretty mild in comparison. 

You may hear many stories about a nuclear war coming from Russia, but some of that rhetoric is designed to rattle US voters and the new incoming president.  When I was a teen nuclear bombs were being tested all the time. 

Here is an excellent time lapsed video to give you an idea, how bad it was in my younger years.