E-Mini SP500 2011-2016 Review

 

 

ESY00-June-6-2016

 

In the last year or so this SP500 index has not made any real progress forwards as it would only be about 30 points down. That sure does not qualify as a bear market from my perspective, yet everybody was talking about the bear market. Does this mean its over and stocks are going to fly to the moon? I doubt that as well.  Still, we are faced with numerous peaks which eventually have to be sorted out and put into the bullish wave count or the bearish wave count.

It is foolish to think that and record high is the real top, or to even think we have a truncated 5th wave. I think there are far less truncated waves than what experts count out, as truncation can be the solution to a wave count when we are stuck. Most of the time we can make any truncated pattern fit.  This all boils down to a very high probability that the “B” wave in Primary degree has been completed or we are still fooling around with the tail end of the 5th wave. 

It may be a triangle, but where is the “trust” that usually happens following a triangle?  Stocks would have to fly much further if a triangle were still in progress.  Markets are very slow and lethargic which does not fit into a triangle pattern as well.  At this time it is still prudent to keep the wave counting options open, as things can change very fast when they want to. Sure, an upside breakout can still happen, but this close to record highs, can make for a very tempting short position.