DOW 30 1984-2018 Review

Since early 2016 we had a massive move to the upside where we can hardly make out any wave corrections. This is a classic 5th wave extension, which we’ve had before. From late 1987 to 2000 was nearly a 13 year Minor degree 5th wave extension which makes our present two year run look kind of mundane.

What is dramatically different between the two sets of 5th wave extensions is our present 5th wave in Intermediate degree is in a near vertical position which I have never counted out before even when we go back 200 years or so.  The difference in angles is dramatic, but wave analysts are ignoring this fact as many of them keep adding higher and higher degree levels.

From my 4th wave Intermediate degree bottom, we would still have 7 smaller degree levels that can come out of  hiding. After the wave 4 bottom in Minor degree, (2017) we still would have 6 hidden degree levels, that could come out. I had  to use the remaining 6 hidden degree levels, and during the last degree, we run out of visible 4th waves.

Elliott wave is much more than making simple mindless trade setups, as it is our perception what the Idealized pattern looks like that is the problem. Those pretty impulse waves they show us in the EWP don’t exist. You can search for them all your life and you will not find them. Why? Because all waves are never even.  Until we go back to 1929 and start a fresh wave count will we ever fix this problem of missing bull markets or even bear markets using the EWP.

Missing a bull market should never happen, and frankly the contrarians do a much better job of reading tops and bottoms. The short version is, when our wave counts, are still bearish after reports of insider buying are all over the news, (like 2008), then our wave counts will get trashed. This happened at ever major bottom of 2002 and 2008 leaving the wave counter with nothing but token positions, if that.

In the next few years, chances are good we could hear about DOW 5000, 3000 or even 1000, but don’t believe that as solar cycle #25 will certainly destroy those price forecasts.

I gave up on all high degree wave counting when I saw EWI still being bearish on gold when gold was at $1000.