DJIA Index Update

This is the DJIA index, which does not move during the night sessions, but only moves during the day. Todays decline does not match the Mini DJIA, but it sure is forming waves that are  better to count out.  The commercial traders are net short the DJIA but not to anything I would consider extreme.  If commercials are net short the DJIA then this does not give us confidence in thinking that some super bull market is about to take off!

Ultimately, this February rally should get completely retraced, then we may have more analysts turn bearish.  Sure, we may not hear about the fundamentals that are causing this decline, but I’m sure the media will find the reasons and then they will all sound like parrots  regurgitating the fundamentals why this market has trashed.  Any, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% or even a 60% correction may not complete a Cycle degree correction.  Price is sure not going to help, as we would need to see a very big corrective wave structure completing first. In my world, pattern dominates price any day of the year.

Death Cross

With this particular chart and settings, the “Death Cross” happened at the 25,500 price level, which is far too late to do much with it. I looked for other potential “Death Crosses” in other indices, but was hard pressed to find any that would show up reliably.  Any “Golden Cross” is very bullish but it too happens on the late side.