Crude Oil Intraday Highs Updtae

Crude Oil is struggling higher and is now creating another small spike to the upside. The October rally has been very choppy, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon.  No real clean 5 wave impulse waves seem to last for very long, so any bullish phase can be part of a bigger bullish phase still to play out. When the markets are this wild, then sudden crashes can happen when we least expect them to. 

Crashes usually produce a new set of 3 wave declining patterns, which are just corrections in a bigger bull market still to play out.  Oil still has to cross that $58 price level, with this December contract. That would just confirm that what we did have since the 2017 peak, was a correction.  Switching between chart time periods does distort the charts, which distorts any wave count we can produce. 

Many times when the oil price does drop, many can get into a panic thinking it’s all over. It takes more than just a price drop to kill a bullish phase, as more bulls need to be on board pushing oil to a very expensive Gold/Oil ratio. This has not happened in any sense of the word, but could happen once crude oil breaks out and heads much higher. At 23.27:1, the Gold/Oil ratio is just not enough at this point, to help forecast another crude oil price crash. 9:1 and 17:1 where the two ratios that oil crashed from.

What it will take this time, is uncertain, but an average between the two extremes is about 13.5:1.  It still could take a full year for this to play out, and fund flows will show up when it does. Steven Jon Kaplan is very good at tracking fund flows, but the media will also report fund flows.  We will only know about it, if we are listening or paying attention to these contrarian indicators.