Crude Oil Intraday Correction Update

Since my last update on oil, it was heading for another high, followed by another correction.  At this time it looks like the correction needs more time to play out.  A little bit of panic selling and crude oil could create a nice spike to the downside, which happens many times just before oil reverses again.   Gasoline futures are also declining, and it looks like it is in a correction with as well. 

Back down at the June 2017 low, I’m using a 4th wave in Minor degree as a position. This is only a temporary position, and it would require that this wave count to end on an “A” wave in Intermediate degree. This $60 price level seems to be providing a strong resistance price level.  I’m sure the oil price will still have some problems bumping its head on this invisible $60 ceiling, but it will eventually push higher.

When we check the Gold/Oil ratio this morning we are at an even number of 22:1. This is a bit more expensive when we use gold as money, but not anywhere near crazy enough, like they are in the 5 stock market indices I track.  

Oil could spend most of 2018 rolling around acting like the bull market has come to an end, but many times it also takes a “C” wave to go vertical before a bull market dies. 

Until the time when the crude oil ratio starts to compress much more, or it compresses  with high speed, then another bearish trend can start, or it will be the end of this oil bull market. 

I always go back and look at the oil charts that started in 1850, and oil has shown diagonals wave structures for the entire time. It’s not entirely a puzzle why the markets are so choppy.

Refineries have to switch to winter fuels as summer driving demand has curtailed. Hurricane season has also ended in December so refineries had the time to get back their production to normal winter levels. I don’t trust any fundamental reasoning why markets go up and down, as they can change as fast as the wind.

We still get analysts that say oil is going back down to $40 while others say oil is going to $80! At least the $80 price is closer to my $89 forecast. For those who are supply and demand freaks, remember that this oil bull market started from a massive world oil  glut. I bet no expert can point to any single fundamental news story, that triggered the oil bull market.