OIL CHARTS

OIL CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

 

Category Archives: Gold

Gold Intraday Gyrations Update

After a great run, gold has now started to back off.  Any top trend line I could use is useless as it would be a race to see which trend line will get sliced first.

Sure, gold can keep right on trucking, but there could be a bigger correction than what the majority is anticipating. A “Flash Crash”,  type of a move would be the perfect outcome. The markets always love to try and fool as many experts as it can and gold is no different.

On other occasions we could see a %61 net crash of a single wave 1 which would be a pretty normal correction. This would be closer to the $1278 price level. It may never happen, but corrections can go very deep with commodities. On the positive side gold can just keep grinding higher, brushing all the corrections to the side until a really big gold correction surprises us all.

When all the gold bulls are making bullish calls, then that’s when the gold market can start a reversal. There may be a bit of a gut move by day’s end, which only gives us until the end of the month for a turning window to show up.

Gold Intraday Bull Market Review

Gold has had an amazing run, with a net move of about $100.  This great gold bullish phase could be coming to an end if  another wave 1 is getting close to completing.  Depending on the strength any wave 2 can dip back down with a net 60% retracement. This would make the 1270 price level a target. There is also no way of knowing how bullish the correction can be, especially if we get a flat of some kind. Running flats are a part of the wave landscape which can produce extreme moves to the upside.

The bottom trend line is just a guide as any correction bigger than expected, will slice right through this trend line.

Gold Rocket Rally Update

10 charts that show why gold is undervalued right now | MINING.com

It’s amazing that analysts have just figured out that gold is undervalued, when the gold price is pointing up.They sure didn’t come up with any undervalue charts when gold was at $1125. Matter of fact, they were downright bearish when gold hit a bottom in December of 2016. They were dumping gold for Bitcoins was the main theme at that time. Who needs that ancient relic in our portfolios,when stocks are still going up?

Gold bullion should always be part of any holdings, but we should never buy gold when it is pointing up. Buying high destroys any cost averaging advantage and most of all it defeats any protection that gold offers against inflation. In 1999 gold investors also ignored gold as a hedge against inflation, but they sure loved gold as an inflation hedge when the gold price touched $1920.  Emotional investors have not changed one bit as they still love to buy high and then sell low in disgust when gold heads back down.

The short story is that the majority always does the wrong things at the wrong times, just like they are doing now. Due to this rapid rise, I think gold needs to correct, but picking correction bottoms usually doesn’t work, due to the fact we could be on another diagonal run.  We could get a very fast reaction, after which the bullish trend will just return and carry on.

Maybe the gold’s rise is all about the rise in the minimum wages this year? They are calling a $15 per hour a living wage, which only a few states are trying to implement. In my province, we are at about a $10.50 CAD minimum wage. This works out to about, a USD (.25) gold gram per hour, or two gold grams per 8hr day. ($84) per day.

Increase in wages does translate into more inflation down the road, but in my working days we got 20% pay raises per year for 4 years in a row. That really kicked in the inflation in the mid 70’s, but our wage increases couldn’t keep up with the rate of inflation. Eventually the middle class got wiped out during the 80’s and wages stagnated. In 2-3 years’ time, when gold touches $1600 US,  you would have to earn $200 per day just to keep up with inflation.

When the gold price shoots up, but the wages refuse to follow, then we are always falling behind in the rate of inflation. Having gold assets mitigates this effect when money becomes worth less in our future.

Gold On A Run Update: Time For A Rest?

It seems like gold is on a marathon run, hardly taking a breather. No trend lasts forever, even at these small degree intraday levels. This rally changed from bigger wave corrections to smaller corrections that we can hardly count out.  This has the classic diagonal wave structure signature, so until better subdivisions come along, this will have to work as an inverted zigzag.

It could be a slow correction or a mini flash crash like move, with no real firm retracement level in sight. Even though it looks like a vertical move on the daily scale, in this intraday scale it has a bit more of an angle to it.

We are coming up to a potential H&S setup so this may add some resistance as well.  We’ve seen these types of H&S setups many times before, with most of them ending up being extremely bullish.  I don’t expect, this time to be any different.

This gold rally got help from the US dollar decline, causing stupid emotional investors to jump on the bandwagon.  Many investors only care that something keeps going up, as they couldn’t care less about any fundamentals. Without those trend chasers, contrarians have nobody to pick on, or no gold bulls to sell to in the future.

The big bull market in gold is still in progress, and it could take all of next year before it becomes more clear to a greater majority. That day has not arrived, even though gold is pointing up, like what we would see in a final blow-off situation.

The main price level of $1375 still has to get retraced in the short term, while longer term the Gold/Gold-stock ratios, will need to shift to the expensive side.

Gold 2011-2017 Review

Since the 2011 peak, gold suffered a bearish phase for about 4 1/2 years before it exploded in 2016.  In general, when a wave count just doesn’t fit well at certain points, then I try and work it from a lower degree perspective. I know that the majority of participants work only from a price perspective, and I get that, but the sad truth is that contrarians don’t work on price. They work on crowd psychology. They also never waste their time drawing a bunch of useless trend lines, nor do they spend their time drawing numbers and letters on any chart. The majority of the trading world works on “Price”, and short term trade setups. One main reason that there are so many short term traders is because they have no clue what the big trend actually is, or what it’s going to switching to.

Gold is extremely cyclical and the contrarians love this. In the cyclical gold market, “If your not a contrarian you become a victim”. Buy Low, Sell High is the contrarian way. When insiders in gold companies are buying their own shares back, then this has to get reported. The same applies when they are selling. In 2013 the gold news was full of insider buying reports and even now gold stock insiders of gold companies are buying into their own shares. I have a contrarian friend I visit regularly, and he constantly looks for insider buying before he takes any positions in any single gold related company.

Ignoring this public information, ignores a great contrarian indicator that helps us in forecasting a bull or bear market in gold and gold stocks.

Any real contrarian cannot afford to miss any big bull market in gold stocks. Sure, many times they are getting in too early, but high net worth individuals need that extra time to accumulate large positions. The idea that we should never add to a losing position is irrelevant to any contrarian. In the contrarian world, it’s all about accumulating positions in preparation for the bullish phase still to come.

I dropped the 2011 top down to a lower degree wave 3 in Intermediate degree. A lower degree level is far more sensitive than higher degree levels are, and the 2011 peak is a prime example. Many were calling for a Gold Supercycle to go to $5000-$10,000, yet gold did the opposite thing and crashed to $1050. For a Cycle degree  wave 3 top in 2011 to be in play, the $1050 price level is not nearly low enough for a Cycle degree correction to be over, but a $1050 Intermediate degree bottom, could fit.

For now, and maybe a bit longer into the new year I will look at the commodity bullish market from an Intermediate degree perspective. Since that $1050 bottom gold jumped 130% before another bearish phase kicked in. This bearish phase that ended in late 2016, is not part of the bigger bearish phase, but it’s part of the new bullish phase that started in 2016. If this is reasonably close, then eventually gold will travel above the $1919 price level. Even if doesn’t perform that well and never makes it to a new high this time, then it will do it at another time in our future.

It would be pretty exciting to see a potential diagonal set of 5 waves develop in gold, but we have to keep our options open as well.  Any big bullish phase in gold will not end just because of a big bearish dip in price. They end when the majority display extreme optimism.  Not owning bullion when the stock market is pointing up, is a constant mistake investors do and have done many times in the past.  When stories come out that investors and fund managers are dumping gold to jump into Bitcoin, it tells me investors have learned nothing about gold. Emotional investors jump on anything that’s going up, and they jump off when it’s going down.

I will try and get a few Gold stock related reviews in,  but will take a break until next week.

Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

“Gold On A Run” Intraday Bullish Action Update.

So far our December, 12th bottom is still holding which is a good thing. Any price move can mean nothing in the bigger scope of things, if we don’t understand the type of pattern that has ended. Recently, many analysts have been bashing gold, as the majority have been selling and running away from the gold markets. Dumping gold and running to Bitcoin or stocks will backfire like it has happened many times before. Calling Bitcoin the new Gold 2.0 is a silly brainwashing tool. Gold, has been around for thousands of years while Bitcoin is only 7 years old. The antics of the herd will never change when emotions take over.

Gold is the “Real” money, as we can exchange into any other currency when we need to. Gold retains its value over time as well. Sure, it swings widely in price, but that just shows how much the price can be compressed into one ounce of gold. Back in 1999 gold had an extreme low price of $253 an ounce, and the majority of all experts hated gold at that time.  Then 11 years later gold’s price had exploded to about $1919, a 758% gain. The hype to own gold in our investment portfolio at the peak was the strongest, yet they didn’t give a shit about owning gold in 1999, when they were calling it the “Ancient relic of the past”.

Recently the fund managers have been throwing gold away (selling), not knowing how much the gold ounce can compress in price.

Chasing a bull market is sheer greed and fear, plus it wrecks havoc with your cost averaging ratio. Any gold bull market is not over until the US dollar starts on a new and very bullish path, which must break 2016 highs. Well, maybe the US dollar implodes to new record lows instead,  like it did from the 2001 peak.

It’s always good to own gold bullion, but only when you buy it when it’s pointing down.

When investors start to see that the Nasdaq and Cryptos are starting to head down, and gold is heading up, what do you think the emotional investors’ reactions will be?

“Nobody Cares About Gold” Commentary

‘Nobody cares about gold’ as hedge funds seek thrills elsewhere – MY Stock 118

The present stories about the Non Commercial traders dumping gold to join the Cryptos Mania is nothing new folks. Back in 1999 when gold was $260, banks were dumping gold, individual countries were selling gold, which they called the, “Ancient relic from the past”. Stocks were peaking as well, so nobody wanted gold. At that time you could only find 14% bulls present, as published in the Market Vane Reports.  From this ugly bottom gold turned and soared 730% as the majority again never saw it coming.

I documented that turning very well in 1999, as even hedge fund managers were dumping gold when it was $260 an ounce.  Back then, mining companies were switching to the Dotcoms which was also called a “New Era”. Just switch the name Dotcoms for Cryptos and voila, we have another “New Era” 20 years after the first one. “New Era”,  are keywords that come in a bull market just before the stock market starts to turn bearish. . In the end, what we did get was the “Old Era”, bear market and small recession.

The sad part about this news is everybody thinks, that the hedge funds (managed money), is the smart money.  Sad to say, but the media is reporting to you what the dumb money is doing, not what the Commercial traders are doing. It’s the Non-Commercials that chase the markets up and down, and they eventually always get into a trap. Last week it was the Commercial gold traders that closed off their gold short positions and, added to their long positions. Commercial trader activities hardly ever get mentioned in the media, so a one sided reason, just sends fear into the hearts of gold investors,

As soon as the bad news for gold came out, gold soared $20 per ounce.  The problem is, nobody studies gold history anymore, and the herd can’t remember anything as a group, so these cycles happen over and over.  Gold is one of the most cyclical markets on the planet, and the real smart people are the contrarians, buying what so called professional “money managers’, are throwing away! Even the ETF GLD has to sell gold to reduce their shares.

My bet is that when gold crosses $1355, we will read the news about managed money buying gold again. When the emotional investors realize that the stock market and Crypto prices are starting to head down, but gold doesn’t  then what do you think they will do.?

It would be a real pleasant surprise to one day see, gold spiking like Bitcoin has. Most people think price is everything, so when the see the gold price falling they think gold is losing its value. In reality the gold price is going back and hiding in the gold ounce. In 1999 nobody could forecast that a $260 priced gold ounce actually contained $1920 cash.  Right now gold has been pointing down while the US dollar and the DOW have been pointing up. This all looks great for an impending reversal for 2018.

December, 15,2017, Gold Daily Chart Update

Our recent gold crash, seems it has turned a corner about 3 days ago, and so far so good.  A wild move in both directions is still possible, but if we just finished an “ABC” correction, then gold, “Must not”, fall below July 2017 lows.  From the July 2016 peak of $1375, gold also created a deep zigzag crash, which eventually must get retraced. Now from the 2017 peak, we have another zigzag looking crash, which “must” also be completely retraced. To say the least we have an interesting setup for gold to rally well into 2018 or longer. 

We have higher lows, through much of the bearish phase, which is a sign of a bull market. “C” wave bull markets can extend past any realistic expectations, because bandwagon jumpers just love to buy high, thinking that a greater fool will take these assets off their hands. We are not anywhere near this euphoric stage, so we have a long way to go, before the big bullish scenario has completed. 

We have two major price hurdles for gold to cross next year, which is the $1355 and $1375 price levels. 

Gold Intraday Bottom Update

Gold hits a bottom at the $1237 price level, and has now started to charge back up. I use the smallest three degree levels to start with, but over time will adjust as each degree level starts to materialize.  In this case I would need 5 waves up in Minute degree, so I make a rough calculation in what I think I may need. For now we have come off a wave 2 in Minor degree, but this may also get changed. The big thing to remember is that gold is in a bigger bull market than what we can imagine at this time. No, gold is not going to $5000 $10,000 this trip! Gold is very cyclical 

Nobody has the patience anymore, to play these bull/bear cycles, but when gold goes vertical like a Bitcoin, then you will see investors jumping on the gold band wagon.  They just love to buy high in a cycle and the contrarians love to sell to them.  The gold bullish cycle could last a lot longer than I originally was thinking, but if 80% or more of my indicators show up earlier than expected, then we have to have a serious second look. 

Gold is a hedge for inflation, so when we forecast the price of gold to go up, we will see inflation numbers rise as well. To make gold work as an inflation hedge you have to buy gold “before” it starts on a bull market, not after everybody has already jumped in. 

Gold Crash Daily Chart Update.

 

Last week gold took a beating along with many of the related ETFs.  Does this mean that the bull market in gold has ended? No, not at all as    bull markets don’t end when their charts are pointing down, they end when the related charts are pointing up.  Since the start, in 2016 this has only happened 2 or 3 times, while the gold market has dipped down many more times than that.   We can see that a lower high has also formed in September of this year, so that can be used as evidence that gold is in a bear market. 

Since the January 2017 start, we still have higher lows that are forming so that is the conventional explanation for a bull market still in progress. In the last week or so I have reworked my entire gold wave count starting back with that questionable bottom during 1999-2000. 

I always had a problem with that major bottom as we all tried to force a wave 1-2 onto it. I found it very hard to believe that the starting wave 1, contains 5 waves in Intermediate degree. I even looked at it with a magnifying glass and all I could see is five waves in the smallest degree. 

If the 2011 gold top was Cycle degree or higher, then a correction to that $1050 price level is not nearly deep enough for the correction to have completed. From my perspective the gold bull market can fit much better into a wild diagonal, which would make our late 2015 bottom plenty deep enough.  Just like the crude oil bull market, in 1999-2008 which soared as a 3 wave pattern, gold can do the exact same thing, but just one degree lower.

Any “C” wave bull market in gold’s future can produce a stunning run. The real contrarians will keep holding their gold stock related assets  until the herd of gold bulls comes rushing back in.  Regular stocks have been pointing up, along with the US dollar, while gold is pointing down. This is a no brainer for a reversal from my perspective. During the past week, I’ve been in e-mail contact with Steven Jon Kaplan, and he is very generous with his information. He has made it pretty clear that gold related assets still have a long way to go. 2018 could be a banner year for the commodities sector, while the stock markets and Crypto Currencies, crash and burn. 

For the rest of the year, or even longer I will be working gold as an Intermediate degree, diagonal 5th wave bull market. 

Even though gold has taken a beating I’m bullish in the long term as the gold bull market is far from finished. 

Gold Crash From A Daily Chart Perspective

That choppy November rally sure looks like it can fit into a running “C” wave.  Gold is on the borderline where an expanded bottom will not work anymore. Presently we do have a small spike to the downside that formed, but that may only bring us another correction. Gold could dip closer to $1220 before it stops, but that is not written in stone.

At this time gold is leaving that $1375 price peak in the dust, but longer term gold will eventually exceed that $1375 price level.

As I post gold is still crashing as it’s at $1246 already. I’m sure the gold bears just love it for now, but eventually they will get into a bear trap, when this downward trend starts to end.

 

Gold Intraday Crash Review

Since the November peak gold has developed a pretty good long impulse to the downside. Gold is on the border line of a downside breakout, as another little 5th wave may need to play out. Any new downside move can now work as an expanded flat pattern with the potential for a “C” wave bullish run still to come. 

I switched to a Minor degree diagonal wave 3 at the September peak, but it’s not chiseled in stone at this point.  In this potential rally we have to let the full run play out. The higher it goes the better, as the declining “C” wave, will then be shorter. 

Gold Intraday Crash Review

Gold’s correction started out very choppy so that gives a certain amount of confidence that only a correction is taking place. The leading pattern was a diagonal, and we are now on the invisible bottom trend line as I post. Silver also took a bit hit today and I can understand it if the majority, still see stocks as a bullish investment.  Many think Bitcoin is an investment as nobody in their right mind can use something that swings as wild as Bitcoin does. 

This morning it took 8.75 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin after which it proceeded to crash about $1800.  Bitcoin is “Not Gold” and it will never replace gold, even though they show you pretty golden Bitcoins,  as a brainwashing technique.  

Gold Intraday Top Review

Since the October low, gold has been in a rally, but I must admit gold has been in one “ugly” rally. Pure impulse waves are virtually non existent, except for very small degree runs.   Another new move to the upside confirmed that the deep crash on the 18th was just a correction.

Gold ended with a spike to the upside at my Subninuette “A” wave peak and gold looks like it has started into another correction.   Another “C” could develop so gold is not dead just yet.  We have to stay open minded as and correction could go much deeper than we might be expecting.  At $1310, gold could form a small double top, as a higher degree wave 1 in Minor degree. 

I will have to adjust my degree levels and wave counts, but at this time I have nothing better to offer. The worst case scenario is, if our present rally is just a “B” wave rally. This could send gold crashing to the $1220 price level. 

Any stock decline could help gold become a safe-haven asset, as any US dollar decline has not helped gold all that much. 

Gold, Intraday Choppy Rally Update

Since last months low, gold has attempted to make a comeback. The problem I have with this rally is the severe overlapping wave structures. Short term it leaves too many options as this could just end up being a bearish counter rally.  A diagonal wave 1 would be nice and we would get no more new lows in the short term. The traditional gold buying from India has evaporated in the last few years, which has at times pushed gold into a bull market at the end of November. 

I made some changes at the September top, but it is not secure by any stretch of the imagination.  I calculated a few Gold/ETF ratios and there is nothing to suggest that gold stocks are in the expensive range. When gold stock ratios compress much more, and gold stock insider selling becomes public knowledge, then it would be time to follow these contrarians and do the same thing.  

Gold Intraday Crash Review

Since the October bottom gold started back into a rally, (sort of). This rally was so choppy that there was no way I could count any clean impulse waves, except for a few very small 5 wave moves.  The invisible top trend line touched many peaks before gold started to crash  last night.  The chance that this is a diagonal first wave can still handle some downside,  but gold must not break to new lows for this work. We could end up with a double bottom or even a bit lower, but then the entire decline can work as a flat.

Flats have a real chance of pushing the next leg up dramatically, which could take the rest of the week to play out. The Thanksgiving Day holiday is this Thursday,  and I usually plan no updates during many of the holidays.  All this looks very bearish, and in the short term gold may just keep showing us bearish moves that we don’t like, but in the long run any gold bullish world is still to come. 

I’m sure gold is displaying an inverse relationship with the general stock markets, but once they head down, the run to safety can happen. The US dollar just pushed to another new high this morning, so that alone could’ve been the cause of gold crashing. These types of crashes are not really a concern, as in a bull market, they are just part of corrections.  The majority cannot tell the difference, as they only care if something goes up or down. 

The $1375 gold  price level has not been achieved and if any “C” wave bull market is still to come,  then this $1375 price level must get retraced by a wide margin.

Gold Intraday, Taking Another Hit

 The gold rally from late October sure was a very choppy affair, which is not the kind of rally we want to see at the start of any bull market moves. Today we are having a very fast move to the downside, which is bullish in the short term. This could be a 5th wave zigzag decline,  which only works for diagonal wave structures. 

With this wave count, gold must create a downside breakout below $1259.  Gold could even end up looking like a double or triple bottom, but that would leave the C5 wave rather short.   

Gold Intraday Crash Update.

Since the October peak gold has been in another choppy world that defies any normal clean impulse. Except here and there, we can get extremely small impulse runs. Gold has not cleared that October 4th low so any bullish phase at this time would be a diagonal sequence. If the diagonal run is true, then the present decline, “Must Not” fall below my wave 2 position. Not by any amount!  When or if it does break much lower than my wave 2 in Submicro degree, it should trigger another review process.

Silver looks a bit better as a bullish move, but it also took a hit along with gold. If the majority thing that stocks are still on a path to the moon, then yes gold will not be looking so much as a safe-haven asset class.  That can all change very quickly as we just can’t trust the emotional crowd playing this game. 

Gold Intraday Gyrations Update

 

From the tail end of October, golds attempt at a rally is not inspiring to say the least. As choppy as it has been, does not mean gold can’t rally as diagonals can start just like this and start to soar.  Until gold soars and clears my 4th wave top, by a wide margin, this bearish rally can resume another leg down even though it could be very short in length.  If gold grinds higher and then creates a 4th wave double top, it can also be just a bearish rally.  This could take all of November before we know more what gold wants to do in the near term. 

Silver is more impulsive looking so in that respect silver has more energy than gold. Silver and gold don’t always follow each other exactly, so many times they don’t confirm each other at all.  This is nothing new as silver is one of the most diagonal markets you will ever run across. Actually, most commodities are diagonal markets with Live Cattle, Cotton, Lumber, Crude Oil, T-Bonds and the VIX. I’m sure the list is bigger. 

Short term gold is undecided in which way it wants to go, and no amount of wishing and hoping will make it go any sooner.  

Gold Crashing Again! Intraday Update

The October rally in gold is an odd looking impulse type wave that could be a 4th wave rally. The decline that we are in is pushing all the bearish buttons. Any wave two correction I started with is not forming well at all, so the chance of another new bearish low is real.  Even if gold hits another low it may not fall that far,  before it cranks up again. The US dollar is still looking to break out with stocks still playing the topping game.  This is all part of  the stock mania, on a smaller intraday scale.   To help gold along the US dollar needs to decline and today this is just not happening. 

This could take until next week before we know if gold has its downside breakout. $1261 seems to be the double bottom floor at this time, and at $1260 any bullish hallucinations I had are instantly trashed.  

Gold Intraday Crash Update

Since October 16th, gold has been in a steady decline. In order for the top to be a wave one, gold cannot break below the $1261 price level. We are getting closer all the time as every bottom has not held, for very long. The waves are much bigger than the initial decline was, and they overlap each other. This suggests a zigzag decline which can also travel to a new bearish low.  If that happened then the wave 1 top will not work and a Potential “B” in Minute degree would have to replace it.  All the gold bears love this decline, but emotional traders can turn quickly if a surprise fundamental report comes out. 

Fundamentals cannot explain the choppy decline, and if you showed this chart to an expert they could not tell you what made the rallies. The US dollar is the wild card, as it broke to a new bullish high today, keeping the downward pressure on gold. I have another few wave counts available, but they are short term bearish as well.   Only the best wave counts survive as we constantly put the best wave counts on the chopping block.

In the long run there is still a huge bullish phase to come, but from today gold has to move well over $110,  just to get near that $1375 price level again. Until we do gold is still in a corrective state. Which will come first, the bearish $1050 bottom or the bullish $1375 top? 

Gold Intraday Rally Review

The decline to the October 6th low fits better as an impulse. Then the rally and another decline can give us a zigzag correction, but the ending “C” wave is rather short. I like to see deeper “C” waves, but then we have very little room to move lower, before that $1162 support is breached. I can also work this as a new set of declining 5 waves, so there could be some strong downside still to come.   Silver also reacted this morning, which has a different wave count than gold. 

From the December 2016 low of $1125, the rally was about as wild and choppy as we want to get which sure looks much like a triangle has completed at the $1355 price level.  Since that $1375 price level has not been exceeded, gold has been in a bearish phase ever since. One good thing is that from that mid, 2016 high, (daily chart) gold displayed a pretty good zigzag crash, which should eventually get completely retraced. 

The SP500 is still heading down as I post so we will find out if investors are going to run to safety in gold. Gold stocks have not really dipped as much as gold has, which is a bullish sign. Some will even suggest that gold stocks will play catch-up, but that has been a false assumption most of the time. 

It may take the rest of this week before we know if more gold bearish moves are coming. 

The latest gold forecast has been for gold to soar between $3000 and $5000 in the coming years, but how many times have we heard these wild forecasts before? Back in the late 70s the $2000 price forecast was constantly used, yet gold has never reached it. 

If the present gold/oil ratio stayed where it is then a $5000 gold forecast would mean a $200 barrel oil price.  

Gold Intraday Review: Still Heading Down?

At this time gold seems to not care about any violent moves in the stock markets, but still seems to be wandering down. Gold is just a little bit away from making another low, and if the expanded pattern I think I have,  then gold must still  fall well below $1260. This would give us very little room before the $1205 price level gets breached.  Any breach of that July 2017 $1205  low, would instantly turn Minor degree wave 1 into a Minor degree “D” wave top.

In the last month any bullish wave counts have failed in the short term, so I have to keep bearish wave counts as alternates.  Gold stocks have also been sluggish at best, so they may also have some more correcting to do. 

With gold, a potential Intermediate degree zigzag could be in progress, ending at a Primary Degree “B” wave top. Even oil and silver have had lethargic price moves, which  still can bring us lower prices in the short term.  

Gold Intraday Crash Review

At the October 7th bottom I increased my degree level by one degree, which makes a potential wave two bottom in Minor degree. It seems like a simple change, but in reality, most wave positions since the 2016 bottom must also be changed. The speed of the decline is related to the steep angle as they are one in the same most of the time.   This mini crash sure looks like a nice zigzag but we could be fooled if some bigger correction is still pending. 

The US dollar has also moved a bit higher than expected, but has now started to correct or started another bearish phase this morning. Any downward pressure on the US dollar will help to give gold the extra push needed for the gold bulls to once again feel smart. 

Gold fought with the $1300 price level, but then got pushed back again to the $1282 price level. Silver imploded about the same, but silver has a different path it has to fight with. 

Gold stocks did not react so dramatically like gold did, which is a very bullish signal.  Any Gold to gold stock ratios do not show any extreme values at this time, but when it does, then it would be wise to increase the frequency that we make those ratio calculations. 

Intraday Update, The Golden Turkey Rally!

 

Gold futures have not stopped trading during Thanksgiving and Columbus Day. Did the majority suddenly want to buy gold in the last few days, or is the threat of WWIII causing gold to rise? I like to think it’s just a Turkey related gold rally, but you never know until this rally shows that it keeps right on going. Short term, there is never any way to really know if this rally is a fake.  It can work as a single zigzag which could also terminate at a wave 1.

I always start off with the small degree levels, as the degree level can be adjusted as the pattern develops. Any anticipated correction can act very violently and be over and done in a flash. So far the US dollar has been cooperating as it seems to be in the mood to go down helping to push the price of gold up.

Silver has also been on a good bullish run, and it is starting to correct as well.  There could be a gut reaction where gold and stocks head down together for a short period of time, as that did happen on a larger scale in 2008.

Gold cleared those ugly high speed moves back in early Oct and it may have something to do with futures expiration dates as well. Fundamentals can change rapidly, and it will drive you nuts if you let yourself get caught up in what the majority thinks.

When gold heads down bearish fundamentals get reported, but when the price of gold goes up, then all the bullish fundamentals get reported. Many of the mainstream fundamental forecasters don’t have the confidence in the bigger gold bull market so they will swing with the markets most of the time.

The gold stock ETFs are still relatively cheap when compared to gold, but until all the ratio numbers reverse, the bigger gold bullish phase is still alive.

Gold Intraday Reversal Review

This morning gold executed a reversal. How big any counter rally can be depended if these wave structures have completed. Time and the depth of the September peak fits very well, but we have to see if any rally can still be a fake.  $1335 could be resistance for another “B” wave top, but we still have a huge gap open to the $1290 price level.   If gaps start to open up as this bullish phase plays out, then the odds increase of gold being in a fake run. This is my least desirable outcome, as on the daily charts we have a pretty straight decline, which can happen in wave two declines. 

Not until gold soars past the $1355  price will we know for certain, that last month’s decline was just a corrective move. The US dollar turning south again would certainly help to make this gold bullish case.

The stock markets took a nose dive this morning as well, so a run into safe-haven assets like gold would also help make a bullish case. 

Gold Intraday Crash Update

The heavy dark wave pattern we see has wrecked havoc with the wave counts, sort of.  What else is new? Wild news can create some pretty crazy wave patterns as well. 

I think these waves are generated by computer executed algorithms, but there is never any real way of confirming it. It will be interesting to see how long this carries on for before, we get wave structures we can  some space between. On the trip down this morning, gold produced a huge gap, which I haven’t seen happen in gold in a long time. $1272 seems to be a bottom right now, but there is a good chance an expanded pattern is still in progress. 5 waves in Micro degree would give us a potential “C” and “B” wave top of a zigzag.

I could be completely wrong here, but I have to use it to try and eliminate it. We could see a peak of $1335, but the gap down, could have finished a diagonal 5th wave as well.   In other words wave 2 may have finished and gold is set to soar another leg up.  Either way, this huge gap will get filled sooner or later. At the very least, gold should be ready for a counter rally.  

Gold, Intraday High Speed Algorithms At Play?

In the last few days the gold chart pattern has displayed, what looks like high speed trading or Algorithms running amok. I’m only posting this because I do see them, with slightly different variations. The reason for this pattern could also be a month end activity, as traders could be positioned for a gold rally. It will be interesting to see if the markets go up, after this pattern shows up. Short term I have a bullish bias outlook, even though there is no way of counting all the waves. Diagonals have a habit of doing this, but at the same time expanded patterns act much like diagonals as well. 

It’s not a big deal, as other single month gold contracts do not show this pattern at all. 

 

This is the silver cash price, which has displayed the same pattern as the intraday gold pattern has. There is also a declining H&S pattern here, which can be very bullish in the short term. 

Gold Intraday Crash Update

With this wave count I moved the degree level up by one degree, making this a potential wave 1-2 in Minute degree. Gold has retraced well into a previous gully, and could be setting up for a H&S type pattern. It does not mean that this price level will hold, but at this time there sure seems to be a full set of 5 declining waves with a regular extension for wave 3. 

If we are landing at a potential “A” wave, then we should expect another bullish move, that can go back up by 60-80% or closer to the $1335 price level. 

Depending how high any counter rally will eventually go then the “C5” wave may not crash as deep as any zigzag suggests. Any zigzag can look like a flat as long as it shows a 5-3-5 wave structure. One thing I always try to look for, is an alternating pattern between the A5 waves and the C5 set of waves. 

The “C”wave could crash without any clear subdivisions showing up, or the “C5”  wave can be so choppy forcing us to pull out our hair trying figure out what the hell it is. Many wave counts will not make any sense if we don’t have a clear picture of where we are counting from. 

In the case for gold we have a clear picture, even though we may have to change the count itself again. In the long run gold still has to leave the $1375 price level in the dust, as without gold crossing this price peak, the entire gold correction from the July 2016 peak, will not be confirmed.