Category Archives: HEMP

HMMJ Marijuana ETF Update.


This marijuana related ETF is what I use to track the hemp related companies. Since its vertical move HMMJ has been in what looks like a correction. Sure, there may be more upside, but over all the marijuana market has been swamped with growers getting into the action. This has produced a legal marijuana glut in Canada and the wholesale price of hemp has been crashing for two years already. The best days are already gone even before they seemed to get going.

There is not much difference between the hemp industry in Canada and Bitcoins. We had our “Hemp Mania” blow its top earlier this year not that far apart from the Bitcoin Mania. The days of easy money are over, and it will take a considerable amount of time doing due diligence to figure out which companies still “may” soar!  I don’t have the time to do all that work, as I have my hands full with maintaining all my wave counts.

I kept the degrees small and started with a Minuette degree 3 wave zigzag, followed by two sets of 1-2 counts. The second 1-2 wave is two degrees lower, but I use that as if a wave 3 extension is coming. If this ETF deviates from its internal impulse structure, then this wave count will get instantly thrown out.

We may be in a triangle, but then we need three more zigzags to confirm it. In this potential triangle the second zigzag would also have to go much higher and add onto the “C” wave. At times there is very little difference between an “ABC” count and a “1,2,3” count, so we have to see if this scenario plays out.

Reefer Madness, Canadian Style!

The Marijuana market in Canada has imploded as the legal supply side has already caught up to the legal demand side. New growers have flooded the markets, and most of them will disappear if their growing costs cannot compete with the top growers.

The wholesale prices of marijuana have already been crashing for several years, which is a main indicator that supply is flooding the markets.

The vertical move of HMMJ was suspicious the first time I saw it, as it’s not a good thing to jump on a bullish bandwagon after it already has gone vertical.

HMMJ has just about reached the previous 4t wave dip I had mentioned, but this all means very little in the big scope of things. This could all “flat line”  if it turns into a one hit wonder. Tulip Mania was a one hit wonder so Reefer Madness could also be another one hit wonder.

Marijuana ETF, HMMJ Update And The Supply Surge!


Legal Marijuana Prices Are Plunging in Colorado, but Not for the Reason You’d Expect — The Motley Fool

Pot wholesale prices dive as growers flood market

The coming marijuana crash | Vancouver Sun

Wholesale pot prices hit new low as legal weed market sees surge in supply – Washington Times


The landscape of our new budding industry is turning at the wholesale price levels. It’s the price per gram or the price per pound that has been crashing since 2016. This means that the legal supply is catching up to the legal demand, faster than we thought would happen.

This also means that any producer who is not the lowest cost grower will have little chance of making it big, if they survive at all.  Once the government forces packaging regulations on growers, then the cost of growing marijuana increase as well. Electricity costs are a major factor where growers will set up operations. Much like Bitcoin mining, indoor hemp farming takes up just as much power where you grow 24/7.

This wholesale price crash is far from over, but really has not translated into lower retail prices. It was scary the first time I saw this HMMJ ETF and that hasn’t changed any when I look at it now.

HMMJ, Another Look At The Marijuana Related ETF

I’m going to make this HMMJ ETF the mainstay ETF that I will track the high flying marijuana stocks. It’s in Canadian funds but there is a US dollar version out as well. The last time I mentioned that the vertical move this ETF has made could not be maintained, and this correction is a result of going too fast, too far.

I will not post intraday results, but only post when a strong turning can happen.

It can take years to build a decent wave count, but the rally between my two arrows, is one of the best real world examples of an impulse, I have seen. Wave 1 subdivided very nicely with wave three also extending as it contains a perfect 1-2, 1-2 and a third 1-2 wave structure. The last 5th wave did the real heavy lifting as it extended dramatically.

The near perfect 5 wave sequence suggests that there are no leverage products involved, so these moves are organic and no slippage or other detrimental leveraging tools seem to be present. From my perspective, this is a very good thing. Is the dip down to $19 enough of a correction or is there a bit more to go down to the $15 price level?  Gaps are present, but if gaps appear under more volume than I will use them.

From the bottom arrow to the top arrow, there was over a 300% gain in just 5-6 months. I manage to catch most of a single stock for a 660% gain, but will look at buying in again with 3 other hemp related growers.  Some of the single marijuana stocks are moving like Cryptocurrecies have moved, which is a unique opportunity for investors with Canadian funds. Jumping on any bandwagon could be the end of a run, so as soon as a person buys in, it dramatically corrects.

It may take the rest of the month before the correction is finished, but it could end early and the bull market would resume without me.

I am also starting to track the Gold/HMMJ ratio and so far it has been fluctuating in a pretty crazy fashion. The bottom low was close to a 150:1 ratio with a top ratio touching 51:1. Today it sits at 62:1. I don’t have enough history just yet to make the Gold/HMMJ ratio useful, but over time the ratios should become  very useful.

HMMJ, Hemp ETF Bull Market Update.

This chart is a bit old, but this morning’s action doesn’t change any of the wave counts. HMMJ is already at $20 this morning.

Talk about a wild ride with this Hemp related ETF. It peaked at $25.56 before it reversed in a dramatic fashion. Any move like this cannot be maintained and it must correct. To go vertical it does so under high speed until no more suckers are left chasing a bull market. As a herd they have to take a break form buying as well.

I counted the bottom as a truncated 4th bottom, but with a small degree. If there is more to this bullish phase, then we should get some type of a 3 wave declining wave structure, much bigger than any correction we have seen. We have gaps open well below present prices, but they can’t be trusted for potential reversals at this time. If we are in any type of a wave 1 top, then a 50-60% correction could happen.

The $13 price level is my previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which also matches the bottom trend line. On Monday I sold my Hemp stock after going ballistic, but I will buy it back once a sufficient correction unfolds.

Finding a great bottom with this HMMJ ETF will not be a walk in the park, as we can be far off the mark when it happens. Now if the 6 o’clock news is full about crashing Hemp stocks, then chances are good any bearish phase has ended, and a reversal would be near. Of course we have no clue at what price level that can happen at.

Our entire planet runs on price and fundamental analysis, but everything I do is pattern related. The pattern has to show itself first, as it matters little if a wave 2 bottom is $5 or $50

HMMJ, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (ETF)

I do not give “Buy or Sell” recommendations on any ETF or single stocks. I can only relay my feelings if I’m bullish or bearish at any given time. I have several Marijuana related stock positions myself, but which ones that will move into a bull market, takes many years of due diligence. Or you trust someone that has done his due diligence already.  I have some people I meet that want to jump on the Hemp bandwagon, but yet when you ask them if they have a Canadian trading account set up, they say, “No”.  These kinds of investors are jumping in with an emotional decision and are many years behind or late.

These types of investors that are getting in because they hear about the Hemp bull market in Canada from friends and news networks, are far too slow or late.

The HMMJ,  Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (ETF) is a prime example of a well advanced bullish phase. HMMJ can keep right on going, but chances are good when you jump in, a correction ensues and this ETF could drop 30-40% in no time at all.

Sure Canada has a great new bull market, but all this hype could end once the legal supply and demand numbers get filled. Unless the numbers tell me different, Canada’s hemp users are not growing by leaps and bounds, but the numbers could eventually run into a brick wall with no new users trying the product.

Any grower has to follow strict Canada Health Board regulations, so there are major hoops that any legal grower has to abide by.