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Category Archives: Nikkei

Nikkei 1990-2016, Mother Of All Bear Markets Review!

 

nik-oct-25-2016

 

On my old blog I had worked on the Nikkei many times as I think this huge looking Nikkei bear market is actually a triangle.  When I look back in time to the 1990 peak, I show a Cycle degree wave three top, which I have not changed in many years It still remains as a Cycle degree wave 3 today.  Just because it is a mega bear market does not mean we can suddenly turn it into a SC or GSC bear market.  

In fact the exact opposite happens as only smaller degree levels come out to make a wave count look bigger than it actually is.  Until this bear market is completed, I cannot label any wave count that is bigger than a Primary degree letter. Staying in the sequence is the biggest requirement when trying to figure out where we are.  

There is much more to this Nikkei bear market than meets the eye, especially when we look at the length of this in terms of years. I mentioned that 2021 could be another major low, but the Nikkei is already 26 years old and it looks like there is more to come before this Cycle degree 4th wave is completed.  By 2021 it would have lasted 31 years!  This matches very well to a 30 year cycle so 2021 could also be the end of this Nikkei bear market and US stock bear market.  

There is also a very unique coincidental wave count that I noticed, and that is the present “D” wave in the Nikkei matches our present “D” wave top with the US dollar.  This makes it very likely that the US dollar and the Nikkei will bottom about the same time and even with the same triangle wave count.  I have many Idealized triangles posted so it is just a matter of labeling them for a Cycle degree triangle. We also know from these idealized drawings what should happen once Cycle degree wave IV is located. 

I used monthly spacings for the chart above which filters out more of the little wild waves and highlights the important turnings a bit better.  

From the 2009 bottom the Nikkei sure did not follow the US markets, but made a very choppy 3 wave bullish move to the 21,000 price level. This move alone is enough to make us think another “bear market rally has finished”, which usally means a new world record low for the Nikkei, will happen. 

It also tells us that US stocks are not going to crash to some crazy DOW 1000 price range dating back to the 70’s.