OIL CHARTS

OIL CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

INDEX CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

STOCK CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

CURRENCY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

ENERGY CHARTS

 

Category Archives: NASDAQ

Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

Nasdaq 2000-2017 Alternate Elliott Wave Count Review!

The big wave pattern of the Nasdaq has always been an issue from my perspective.  One of the main reasons is the great looking impulse that formed during the 2000-2002 decline. This single looking 5 wave impulse decline just does not fit very well, as it makes the 5 waves of a C5 pattern extremely short. (Running zigzag)  From the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom would have to be 5 waves in Minor degree.

 Any running zigzag breaks all descriptions of what a zigzag should look like. They should by all accounts, travel well below  the “A” wave bottom, which it never even came close to doing in 2009. 

Another pattern I show that I have, also does not fit well and that is I have the 2002 to 2007 rally as another zigzag. A small zigzag correcting a big zigzag, is extremely rare and I rarely count them out this way.  Just by moving the positions from 2002 to 2007 around, I can easily produce a running flat in a 4th wave position. 

Any bottom trend line is just a rough guide as a potential Cycle degree 4th wave decline could slice through this trend line with ease. 

In the long run the 2009 bottom still ends up as a 4th wave in Primary degree, after which 5 waves in Intermediate degree must follow. Any Cycle degree 4th wave correction once completed, would have to produce 5 waves up in Primary degree. It would still take Cycle degree wave 4 until 2020 or so to complete, so things should get very interesting in the next 2-3 years.  Solar cycle #25 is also due to start at the 2021 time period, so all bearish opinions and moods will be crushed at that time. 

This wave count is just an alternate wave count, as I prefer the 2000 peak as a potential expanded “B” wave top.  That 2000-2002 decline also shows what can happen when markets get repelled by the solar cycles. In the case of the 2000 peak, it was solar cycle #23 that killed the stock market. In 2014 the peak of sc#24 only produced a market correction.  I will bet that very few market analysts can tell you from memory, what caused the 2014-2015 correction. 

Chances are good I will use this wave count only for a very short time, as I may create my original expanded pattern again with a bit more detail.

All stock indices point towards a Cycle degree wave 3 top, but there still may be a bit of fooling around as only small degree bearish patterns may still be forming.

Mini Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2009-2017 Bull Market Review

This morning the Nasdaq hit another record high of 6334 but may still add on more points before another correction is due. One trend line is all we need as two of them will not fit well.  Look at the angle of the bull market, and how it cuts very close to a 45 degree angle, or corner to corner.  How long this market can keep gyrating without a major correction is uncertain at this time, but markets do have a knack of fooling us with surprise moves.  I like to catch as many of the surprise moves that I can but it doesn’t always work that way. 

From my perspective, I have a clear vision of a single idealized wave count, and I use this idealized picture as my reference point, for all the different simple corrections that we may find. Most of all it is important to eliminate 2 of the corrective waves, but also to get the highest degree of this correction.  This helps in keeping all wave positions within Cycle degree, so we don’t  end up with the  SC or GSC degree forecast. Unless all Cycle degree peaks are found we can’t move forward into the next highest degree. 

The Nasdaq is about the best forming impulse wave, when compared to the others, but any 5th wave can be very choppy due to diagonal wave structures.  In 2016 we did have an expanded “B” wave top pattern, and it did not let us down as another leg up materialized.

Then from 2016,  the bull market started to go crazy which works best with extending the last 5th wave in Minor degree. It makes wave 1 and wave 5 about even, with wave 3 still being the longest and the extended wave. 

Harry Dent, who is just a book writer says the DOW will fall to 5000. When we actually go look we can see there is nothing down there, but it would take us back to 1996 price levels.  1996 coincides with the end of solar cycle#22 and the start of solar cycle #23, which just kept the bull market going. 

Now if the Nasdaq were to fall along with the DJIA then the Nasdaq could fall to 600-700. Again, there is nothing down at the 1996 price level to support anything,  so I know those numbers are arbitrary numbers,  picked out of thin air. Manipulating the masses with fear is very normal as it sells books. 

All this can take the next 3-4 years to play out and to surprise us again, the Nasdaq could stop well short of the 2009 bottom, before a brand new bull market starts with the start of solar cycle #25. 

I checked the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and it was 4.94. It took 4.94 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, which is the most expensive ratio I have recorded in the last few years. The record expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have,  is about 4.  To get real cheap this ratio would have to get closer to 1.18 again. 

Nasdaq Intraday New Record High: Going For The Moon!

Once again the Nasdaq soars to a new world record high. This morning the Nasdaq peaked at 6180 before it started to correct again. As we can see the Nasdaq has gone, “Vertical”  this morning.  These moves can never be maintained for very long, as a vertical move also represents speed. Besides that we have a 3 wave rally that has been pushed to new record highs.  It’s not 5 waves until waves 3-4-5 show up, and push it much higher one more time. 

Diagonal waves behave just like this so we have to wait it out to see if a 4th wave is going to form. Even bad trend lines will not help us very much as any 4th wave may find support at the 6120 price level.  We have about 3 trading sessions before the end of the month, so this market could still fool around by trying to go higher. If the last move is part of a zigzag, then a complete retracement can happen.

Do you think a bunch of traders were clicking “Buy Orders” this morning because they all reacted to some news all at the same time. Logic does not make the stock market go up and down, as raw emotions do. Even with computer trading and robot algorithms running the show, humans will interfere and usually screw things up. 

Besides a few scary intraday crashes, nothing became of  the 30 year 1987 crash anniversary date. Maybe Halloween will scare investors again, but it’s a pretty scary thought,  if this drags out until 2018.  What we are witnessing is a tech mania that can only end badly. The talking heads will use every excuse under the sun to ignore the fundamentals, and keep reminding us there is nothing to fear as we are in a secular bull market with many years left to go.

I doubt that can happen as insiders have left the “Building” in May of 2017. Only the emotional traders are left in this market, and they could be trapped, because they all can’t get out at the same time.   

Nasdaq 1998-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

What we do know is that the Nasdaq walks to a different drummer compared to the other 4 indices. The main issue is that great looking 5 wave decline from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. This sequence cannot fit into any present zigzag we may want to have, and the 2007 peak sure does not fit into a truncated pattern.  I sure don’t feel comfortable using the 2007 peak as a truncated pattern, but this 2007 peak fits well with all the other main indices I cover.

What it all means from my perspective is that we need several alternates going at the same time.  I also show a Megaphone pattern at this time, that may mean nothing in the long run. I would be producing false trend line expectations, if I use two parallel lines.  The question will remain, what is the most likely degree level and wave position, now forming in October of 2017?

The Nasdaq just finished a 6010 peak, with no guarantee that it will stop tomorrow or the next day.  A general guideline how deep the next bear market  can get is what we think is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  This would be that the Nasdaq can retrace most all of its bull market since the 2009 bottom.  The first price level when the Nasdaq enters this previous 4th wave would be at about the 2000 price level. 2000 can be a happy even numbered target, as the markets just love even numbers.

I believe that the 2002 and the 2007 bottom of the Nasdaq represents a major base with the 2002 bottom crashing to the 1996 market lows. 1996 and 2008 are two solar cycle lows and if the markets ever cross both of these lows, I would be very surprised. It’s the markets job to fool everybody all the time, and it would not surprise me if the 2009 bottom never gets retraced by more than 100%.

This future 2000 price level would also come very close to completely retrace, the stock mania that started in 2011. Years ending in 7 can cause great turmoil in the markets, like it has done many times before. The VIX will also move as fear comes back into the market place.

The majority may only be expecting a short correction, but that will never happen if our degree levels are off by one degree.  There is a big difference between a Minor degree wave 3 peak or a Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Only time can eventually confirm a wave count, which may take until solar cycle #25 starts in the 2020-2021 time period.

So far the Nasdaq is one index that can give us a lot of grief.  Once the majority hates stocks again, but insiders are buying as a group, then we could see a surprise reversal back into a bull market.

Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Review

The markets decide where they want to go and obviously still too early for the beginning of a bear market. This is only a quick count in what could be an ending diagonal, with the last part being a poorly formed 5th wave. Other indices are also getting very close to new record tops so there is still life left in the stock party.   We ended on a nice little spike this morning and a correction should be expected.  Of course, any bigger decline would be welcomed, and 2 or three obvious support levels must eventually be completely retraced. 

I don’t have a better wave count at this time, but a new world record high is always important. In line mode the new high looks more like a double top but still registers a higher peak by just a fraction of a point.  Short term this produces a bad pattern to count from. The VIX has kept on with its decline and is now approaching the $10 price level. Bear attacks always come as a surprise to most and I’m sure the next bearish move down will also be a surprise. 

Short term we can still see this bullish action, but long term I’m bearish as insiders left the building a long time ago. Not until the contrarians report that insiders are once again buying as a group will it be “safe”. Other indicators would have to come together as well, and the markets will become massively oversold before we reach any major bearish bottom.  Many reported that the Nasdaq touched 6000 but this happened with a spike. In line mode this turned out to be about 5991. 

Nasdaq Intraday Update


This morning the Nasdaq spiked and then reversed very quickly. It looks like a nice run that can keep right on going to the moon, but emotions have a real problem of infecting others, when they are sealed in a space suit, so emotions going to the moon is not an option.  😯 

If the bigger bearish phase is in control, then it’s not rocket science that the Nasdaq has to fall below 5560. Of course, if you’re a climate scientist, then anything goes, until you’re caught manipulating the numbers. 

So far the Nasdaq has been leading the way on a sliding path heading south, in what could be a Cycle degree 4th wave correction. This Cycle degree could take until the 2021 time period to play out, as 2021 could be the start of  solar cycle #25. The last thing we should be at the start of any solar cycle is to maintain a bearish outlook. All bearish opinions and bearish wave positions at that time, will get terminated, just like what happened in 2008-2009.  2021 is also 89 years from the 1932 bottom, so from my perspective it has significant meaning. 

Looking 3-4 years ahead in the markets is never a certainty, but the only certainty is that the majority can never take advantage of it, when another major buying low presents itself. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Update

Since the bottom of the 15th of June, the Nasdaq has rallied which counts out as 5 waves. Since the 4th wave overlaps any first wave, this throws out any impulse, we may think we have.  Any impulse, that we could still be in must be an extended wave 3, as we would have to switch this move to a wave 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count.  Any impulse count would send the Nasdaq into new record highs, with very little problems. 

Insider Selling Skyrockets in May

Insider selling soared in May,  which does not bode well for the stock markets to continue into outer space.  I’m looking for some type of 5 wave decline as they indicate the direction of a new trend. The Nasdaq has not broken anymore world records for well over 2 weeks. When the markets do not keep on making record highs, investors and day traders will get pissed off and sell, if they no longer see that they are making gains in a stock bull market. Of course the bull market may have ended already, but since the herd is pretty slow, they may not figure this out, until the markets reach that popular 20% correction price level.  

When they do realize that the 20% dip is here and they claim a 20% bear market, then I would expect this market to make a huge counter rally. That could take the rest of the year to play out, but the last few weeks in October could give us a market crash much like 1987 did 30 years ago.   It only took 3 years for a major bear market to play out from 1929 to 1932, so why should a bear market with one lower degree, be any longer?

Of course doom and gloom is the name of the game as fear is a tool to control the masses. By far the biggest use of fear is done in man-made climate change theory. 

Nasdaq Intraday Review: A Leading Indicator?

All the stock indices I cover will be moved to the September months and no more June contracts will be posted.  At this time it sure looks like the Nasdaq is still leading a charge heading down. Even though it looks great, as the start of a potential diagonal decline.  We have to remain vigilant because these declines can roar back in spectacular fashion.

Not until we see consistent inverted zigzags or flats, will we know that a bigger decline is in store for stocks. Many times flats  or complex flats develop in the “B” wave of a zigzag so flats can provide the half way pattern between the A5 and C5 set of waves.  

I would love to see any peak hold just so we can work on a different trend than this rambling on and off again bull market. 

That may be too much to ask for, so the rest of this week and next week could help confirm that our recent tech bubble top will hold.  All my work is done with Cycle degree being the largest degree I’m working. This makes all the Primary and Intermediate degree moves extremely important turning points. Minor and Minute degree waves can be the degree that shows up from hiding when patterns extend.  If you think that wave degrees cannot hide, then just look at gold in 1999! 

I may not have the time on Friday to get in updates but I will add a few postings later in the day or Satuday morning.  

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash Review On A Full Moon!

This morning the markets peaked and then proceeded to decline with gusto and a sense of purpose. It is still declining as I post so hopefully we will get more than just another simple correction.   Until we see a clearly defined sequence, all options are still open.   From here on it will be important to follow the intraday patterns to figure out early if we are heading down with diagonal wave structures.

The top was more like a pure diagonal 5th wave slightly extended. Hopefully we have a long anticipated new trend to look forward to, as this so called bull market is getting pretty boring. I love bear markets as they are a real challenge and the thought of a Cycle degree 4th wave correction will keep us busy in finding the turnings, in a market that can have 3 variables. A zigzag, flat or a triangle, are the simple choices with the triangle being the very last pattern I would expect.  It make take a while, but Cycle degree wave 3 should be our new largest degree top. 

We are not in SC or even GSC degree as those wave counts are based on 4th wave bottoms which are all 5th wave extensions. All my Elliott Wave work is on a wave 2 base. In other words wave threes must be the longest wave in the general stock market. 

Besides 5th waves are always the weakest an only rarely does the 5th wave extend. 1987 to the 2000 peak was a 5th wave extension in Minor degree. 

I looked at the date and saw that today is the full moon, which is usually bullish for stocks. This time the full moon gave us an exact turning day. This does not happen consistently, but the moon dates sure can give us potential reversals.  

Nasdaq New Record Highs Again.

Once again, the Nasdaq sets another record, and it still might not be finished.  The big 5 wave sequence, I’m presently working,  had its start back in March 2017. In mid May the Nasdaq crashed again with a fast sudden move to the downside. That May crash, fits very well as a 4th wave, so looking for the 5th wave peak is the task at hand. Of course they rarely cooperate as extensions can come out of hiding at any time. 

Even though the 5th wave rally is 5 waves in Minuette degree, there would still be a full 4 degree levels that can come out of hiding, which can make any sequence take longer in time and higher in price.   The say June can be very bearish for stocks, but I haven’t seen any evidence of that just yet.  There is no way we can rush the markets, and no amount of fundamental excuses will turn any market before it is time.

We could work this with very bullish wave counts and then suddenly the markets will make their last highs and then proceed with a new trend heading back down. 

Right now this market is still heading up, and wild moves should be expected. 

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini, Another Great Intraday Top

Early this morning, the Nasdaq created yet another spike to new record highs, before it slumped again. Until stocks start to show  a consistent declining pattern, we are never sure that this peak will hold.  I would love to see this market start heading much  lower during the rest of this week, as it is long overdue for at least another correction,  or the end of the big 8 year trend. 

Just like all the other indices, the Nasdaq should eventually peak at a Cycle degree wave 3 top as well.  Finding the exact wave that makes any top is very important as all other wave counts are based on it. Of course, those pesky expanded flats throw a monkey wrench into any wave count. 

Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update: Down To The Wire

Once again the Nasdaq is down to the wire before breaking to  a new record high. The sharp drop in May could have been part of an expanded pattern which, if it is true always sends the markets to newer highs. Apple, which is the big elephant in the room will not maintain its price no matter how many freaking iPhone 8 models that the experts figure it can sell. 

On this Thursday we are going to hit the new moon date, followed by a holiday on Monday. The new moon dates can produce dramatic reversals in stocks, plus we are getting closer to the end of the month as well.  If we reach a new record high, then the next correction should go much deeper, than what we have had so far. The entire rally that started back in mid April would also be completely retraced. Eventually the entire Trump rally will also be left in the dust, which the US dollar has already done.  

A new record high will force the Cycle degree wave 3 to be moved to a new home.  All my work on this blog is dedicated to tracking and confirming all the historical 5 wave sequences in Cycle degree.  My goal is to find a permanent home for Cycle degree waves 3-4-5, as without them no SC or GSC degree wave patterns can develop.

My work is at a minimum 2 degrees lower than what the majority of expert wave analyses is working with, and back in 2000 my wave count now is a minimum of 4 degree levels lower. 

 

 

Nasdaq Intraday Review: Charging To New Record Highs!

 

In just a few days the Nasdaq had finished a correction before it charged up, breaking yet another world record at the 5687 price level.  Warren Buffett will become a god again as his purchase of Apple stocks proves to be correct.  Have they ever thought about it,  when Warren Buffett stops buying?  I’m sure we will see a reaction with the Nasdaq, as it can produce rather dramatic reversals. 

We have a huge open gap below, which will be the first price target area, before the gap will get closed off.  This last little 5th wave is so choppy that it can only fit into another diagonal or a stretched out ending diagonal will also work. Apple is inside the Nasdaq, but this morning Apple also reached a new record, with the Gold/Apple ratio.  A new extreme ratio this morning touched 7.85. This means that one ounce of gold can only buy 7.85 Apple shares. This is the most expensive ratio I have calculated since I started tracking the Gold/Apple ratios.  Today it takes about 4.67 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq, so that is also breaking a new record.  

Folks, we are at record breaking historic market highs, which will not end well. I’m also very confident that the majority of  expert wave analysts,  are one or two degrees higher than all of my work. EWI and others see a depression coming, as chances are good, that new records below 2009 lows will happen. Any single degree can put us off by 61%, which is the (. 618)  Fibonacci ratio. 

Can this still drag out and go higher? Sure, it can but overpriced stock mania bubbles have a tendency to go pop! 

At best we are at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree, and therefore we should get a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom. This is not Elliott Wave rocket science as our little blue book tells exactly what is supposed to happen, after a 4th wave in Cycle degree has completed. My take on this is that the markets have one main job,  and that is to fool all the wave analysts. There is a very good chance that the markets will “never” go below 2009 price levels, just to try and fool all of us.  Hell,  the markets will already be in a massive oversold condition,  before price levels will ever get close to that 2009 bottom. 

Nasdaq Intraday Review: Soaring To Record Highs

 

Since mid April the Nasadq has gone nuts, which any sane wave analysts would label as a small 5 degree impulse wave.  The fact is that most waves are not pretty impulse waves, but they can be diagonal waves instead. Diagonals are when zigzags are connected together.  In the bigger scheme of things the 5th wave is always the weakest and only rarely the longest.  This rally has nothing to do with power or excellent fundamentals, but it has more to do about fear of being left behind. 

Yesterday the Nasdaq hit a new record high at the 5640 price level, and now sure looks like it has started another potential diagonal set of waves heading down.

It is also a good idea to take a Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation, which sits at 4.50:1. It takes 4.50 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq, which is the most expensive reading for all of 2017 so far.  At anytime a new record high, can be the last record high which would then knock the Nasdaq over onto the bearish side.   It only takes the smallest degree for this to happen, and then the markets are very vulnerable to bad fundamental news.  A great  fundamental reason, why stocks are going down can always be exploited with the, “Geopolitical” excuse.  Of course, they will dream up also sorts of other reasons when you give the mainstream more time.

All the bullish forecasting in the world, can turn out to be very useless, when the Greatest Fool has already bought.  The Market Vane report has hit record highs as well, so this sure chokes of any smart money left to come in. 

To say the least I have a very bearish slant, so I will look for these waves that help support that outlook. The last thing I’m looking for is any SC degree or any GSC degree wave counts.  All the Cycle degree peaks must be labeled first, and then they must hold, with a very high degree of confidence.

Imagine if we crash to a SC degree 4th wave bottom, what is the idealized wave count that we would need or that must come next?  The book tells us exactly what we need, and that pattern would be 5 waves up in Cycle degree.   All that would have to happen before we even get close to where GSC degree wave counting is required. 

Nasdaq 2000-2017 Elliott Wave Count Review

I’m sure we can find places of contention in the above wave count, especially from the 2000 peak to the 2002 bottom. By all means this decline can be counted out as a fairly good declining impulse.  Easy wave counts are for suckers as the markets will always send us some easy wave counts. The easy wave counts are the traps, making us think we found the next best thing, since sliced bread! 

I have looked at the 2000 peak as an expanded flat, but then the rest of the waves will not fit very well. I can work the decline as a double zigzag, followed by a “D” wave bull market, to the 2007 peak. Another 3 wave crash into the depths of 2009, which did not go to new lows.  What are we going to do with that odd ball 2008-2009 crash?  I use it as a running triangle “E” wave, and from that  2009 bottom, the Nasdaq blasted into an 8 year bull market.

It formed closer to a good impulse than any other market I keep wave positions on, as this wave count is also relatively zigzag free. 

The majority of wave analysts had the most bearish wave counts at the 2009 bottom, but yet the markets soared beyond anything imaginable in  2009. They tried the exact same wave count in 2000-2002 and that bear market also failed. I’m sure nothing will change the next time, when we arrive at another major bearish bottom.

This market is one of the most hyped up markets we have seen in a very long time, and my bet is that it will be a Cycle degree wave 3 top, and not some SC or GSC degree related pattern. 

To stay within a certain degree level you have to count out all the idealized wave structures, as  you would need them to help us to confirm our location. The difference between an Intermediate degree set of 5 waves, and a Primary degree set is huge, (. 618) or 60% as it is the cutoff point between two different worlds.  Being out by 60% between degree levels is not my idea of having fun wave counting. 

The Nasdaq is at record highs, which makes it still vulnerable to a surprise bull attack. It may still take this month before we find out for sure, but the writing is on the wall.

Updated March, 18, 2017

 

 

I thought I would add another version of the Nasdaq in Linear scale. Linear scale shows the stock bubble in a more dramatic fashion. I believe that the 2009 to 2017 stock bull market showed more of a pure impulse than any other wave pattern I have been working. The only way this will work at this time, is that the bear market from 2000 to 2009 ended with  a running triangle.  As of March 2017 we can be very close to another major top  that would give us a Cycle degree bear market.  I looked over the COT reports, and it looks like the commercial traders have net short positions, with most of the indices, I keep wave positions on.  These are bearish indicators, besides the Market Vane Bullish Consensis Report, is coming off fresh record highs as well.

At this time it is far too early to give an accurate, Cycle degree 4th wave bottom price target, as we don’t know if a zigzag or a flat is going to happen. If the early declines look like a set of 5 waves, then this could work as part of the leading zigzag to a flat. 3-3-5. My least favorite bear market pattern would be a triangle, as we would not have enough time, to complete a triangle by 2020, or even in the next 3-4 years.

By that 2020 time frame, solar cycle #25 is going to trash every bearish mood and every bearish fundamentals we can dream up. Especially all high degree bearish wave counts. 

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom does “NOT” have to fall below the 2009 lows, but can stop well short of that bottom as well.  I can imagine all the expert wave analysts calling for the markets to go much lower when in fact, they should be accumulating major bullish positions.  Just like the 2009 bottom, the contrarians have figured this out a long time ago, while the wave counters were still dicking around, making a bunch of mindless numbers and letters. 

The EWP is a very powerful analytical tool, but very inefficient if we ignore all the sentiment and ratio readings. 

 

Nasdaq 100 Intraday Bull Market Record High Review

 

As usual, The Nasdaq walks to a different drummer. It has push higher at the intraday level, creating this new record top. So far we ended at about the 5440 price level, before the Nasdaq made a mad reversal.  These are the types of tops I look for, and hopefully no double top comes along and tries to make it more difficult.  In the end the markets will always react in such a fashion,  to never allow the majority to make any money. Some cry manipulation right away, but then the “manipulators” must manipulate the Elliott Wave Principles as well.

It is impossible for the majority to make any money from the very majority that are trying to do the same thing.   They think they are up and in the green with their portfolios, but in the end that is where the paper profits stay for the majority.

If this continues down this week and next, then I may have room to find a home for Cycle degree wave 3, otherwise we have to take one day at a time. 

This 8 year bull market with the Nasdaq, fits into an impulse much better that any other index.  Even a good expanded wave 4  in 2015 was thrown in for dramatic effect.  

I have been recording many Gold/Nasdaq ratios which work a bit differently, by figuring out how many ounces it takes to buy one unit of the Nsadaq.

The more ounces it takes to buy the Nasdaq, the more expensive it becomes.  This ratio is sitting at 4.40:1 today.  One of my lowest readings was a ratio of  1.18:1. This establishes two extreme ratios, we can use. Using ratios is a more objective approach in looking at the markets, and I have integrated them into my version of the EWP.  

Many of the stats today, are far worse than any top since 2000 so that alone can make this market become very bearish. 

I also receive a weekly report from Market Vane  which started in 1964. They survey many participants to establish how many bulls are in the market on any day.  These sentiment readings also have extremes which show during the last 24 month period. Out of 100 %,  we will never get zero, or 100% readings.  A low bull count can be anything below 10% and a high count can be anything above 90%.  Basically at the high end all the bulls are in, and only the stragglers are left.

With the Nasdaq we have registered 91% bulls, with a high of 87 last week. I think that this 91% number is it, and that we are going down the slope of  the disappearing bulls.  Just like all gold ratios, the Market Vane Bullish Concensous Report is also another objective method to use, when looking at the markets. 

Nasdaq Index 2000-2016 Review

 

Nasdaq-Aug-18-2016

 

The Nasdaq has always been a wave counting headache, as it diverged dramatically from all the other 2 or 3 indices.  The 2000 to 2002 decline looks like a great impulse heading down, but when we think about it, this can’t be part of a bigger zigzag like many wave analysts think it is. Besides the Nasdaq has already passed all major highs which kills the idea of a big zigzag instantly.  Also the fundamentals after the 2009 bottom were too good to be called a “C” wave bull market. 

The  1998-2002 pattern I tried as an expanded pattern which makes sense for another wave 3 top in 2007.  From 2009 we have another diagonal type wave with the Nasdaq displaying the closest thing to an impulse.  This is all good, but we still have an issue of what is happening with our present top.  I sure can give you all sorts of bearish wave counts, but until the real top is in, we still have options that we have to explore, before Cycle degree wave 3 can find a permanent home.

I am not using the EWP, just for trade setups, but I am actively searching for all of the 5 waves in Cycle degree.   At this time I’m sure that the 2000 peak is not the home for Cycle degree wave 3, and definitely not the 2007 peak as well. This can still put Cycle degree wave 3 into our future provided we don’t head down into a Minor degree “E” wave. 

Right now the Nasdaq looks like it crossed to new highs with a 3 wave pattern, and may even “hang” until we get closer to elections.   Any Cycle degree wave 4 correction will not be 5 waves down, but it could be another zigzag or even a flat type correction. I don’t think we will get a long drawn triangle and I’m sure the Nasdaq will not go as deep as all the super bears want or need. 

The big bears are all saying it’s going to be much worse than 2009, so if that were the case, then the Nasdaq should go below the 2009 lows. Either way, it may take the markets until 2021 to find a real bottom, before the next major bull market can start again. (5 waves up in Primary degree)

The last thing we want is to have a very bearish wave count anywhere near that 2020-2021 time period. Solar cycle #25 will start and solar cycles are bear market terminators. 

Nasdaq 100 2007-2016 Review

NQY00-Aug-13-2016

 

It took me a long time to understand the 2007 peak, as my Primary degree wave 3 location.   Once I accepted the fact that 2003 was actually an expanded “ABC” wave bottom, than the 2007 is no longer the shorter peak. It makes a much better sequential fit this way. Many times it only takes 2-3 months for us to find out our wave counts are wrong. I assure you that the markets will force me to change that 2007 peak if I am completely wrong. The fact that the Nasdaq had such a strong showing, was sending a clear message that the other 3 indices, were also in a bullish phase, and not just a big bear market rally.  

Taking 8 years to figure out that a specific wave count is wrong, is a huge under utilization of the power of the EWP. 

Of course, many will think this is 2007 peak is crazy, but it is one wave count that explains the huge bull market from the 2009 bottom.  There are no places I have ever counted a bear market rally that was longer than 7 years long, within the last 100 years.

This makes this bull market a much easier target as a potential diagonal 5th wave.  Many are very bullish on stocks as they say, “Technical analyst: Stocks have come through an ‘internal bear market’”. What is an “internal bear market”?  Something that they have no knowledge about or something not caused by outside bearish news sources. In the end it is just another way of saying, “I have no clue why the markets went up and down in the last year or so.”

If we went back to the 2009 bottom, there would be nobody that can give you the real reasons why the market went up and down for those years. We have had far bigger corrections and they all came back stronger than before.

From my EW perspective crashes and declines are just corrections in a bigger bull market, or the finishing of an old  bull market. Cycle Degree wave 3 should be still ahead of us, which will produce and entirely different bear market pattern, and with it bring entirely different bottom support prices. My favorite 2 patterns for Cycle degree wave 4 would be a flat or I will even take a zigzag. The last thing I want is a triangle!