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Category Archives: Mini SP500

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

The SP500 is now developing a small degree double top which I can fit into a diagonal 5th wave.  Even now another spike to the upside can still happen.  A correction is coming and it will be bigger than the majority are expecting.  The “Market Gremlin” will raise a shit storm in the next few years as a financial earthquake is coming.  All those pretty “Green”  numbers in a bull market,  turn to “Red” in a bear market.  If you think that a few $300-$400 billion going up in smoke in the Cryptos is a big deal then, you haven’t seen nothing yet as $20-$30 trillion will go up in smoke once the markets hit the “Real” bottom.

Just for starters the entire 2018 rally has to get retraced, followed by retracing the entire Trump rally as well. Two years worth of gains will disappear in a blink of an eye, so don’t fall asleep being complacent with the majority. Investing with the majority will get you the same results as the majority get when the “Big Bear”comes a knocking. The real bears are not going to be so nice, as there will be no knock as they will just smash through the front door.

In this world you are a contrarian or you become the victim, so you do have a choice.

SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday the markets suffered a min type of a crash. It is also a move I like to see coming off another major peak. Due to its sharp decline, there is still the potential left for the markets to charge higher.  All of the January 2018 rally would have to get completely retraced just for openers,  followed by  retracing the entire December bull market as well.  We have to get a decline big enough for the markets to no longer have the time to create a new 2018 record high.

So far we topped off at the 2808 price peak and remains the number to beat in the near term future.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is well into the extreme side, sitting a bit over 2:1 this morning.

Mini SP500 New World Records!

I normally take a break on any US or Canadian holiday, but occasionally I will break that rule. Soon we will be starting in the third year of a single 5th wave in Intermediate degree. At this time the markets show no signs that they want to slow down, but reversals can happen coming as a complete surprise to the majority.

We can’t have our noses stuck in the intraday level as we always have to look at daily and weekly charts on a regular basis. At the monthly chart scale we are dealing with a vertical move, where we can barely see any of the corrections above. On faster moves we can’t see any corrections on the bigger scale. Extensions happen all the time as they are a fact we can’t deny. Just because we have a single tall 5th wave, doesn’t mean we are jumping into higher degree levels.

We are still in the running to a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so until that happens, I will remain extremely bearish.

Tomorrow will be a new moon date, which can produce amazing reversals, when they feel like it. It could still take until the end of the month for this to play out, but I look at mid week times as potential turnings as well. The longer and higher this goes, just means it has much deeper to fall when the next bear market arrives.

Crude oil may crash along with the stock market, so we have to be aware of that potential situation as well.

Today the Gold/SP500 ratio is still around 2:1,  which it has been for 3 months. When a ratio is at an extreme and it seems to be stuck there, then I look at it as a warning for a major double top in the Gold/Sp500 ratio. In the end, we want to use less gold to buy a single unit of the SP500, which is close to,  (.75:1) Not until we get close to this cheap ratio again will the markets become oversold again.

Here’s what could trigger a 30% stock-market melt-up, says investor Bill Miller – MarketWatch

The markets breaking all these record highs are starting to bore me to no end! 🙄  Enough already! It sounds like the market analysts are stuck on repeat, or they are getting creative in calling for another melt-up.  It’s amazing how they can call higher and higher bull market targets when they didn’t even see the bull market coming back in 2009.

The higher calls mean nothing in the big picture as nobody knows what the markets will correct down to once those targets have been hit. Nobody is saying, ” Oh BTW, once SP500 reaches 2800, then expect a correction to 700″! Identifying bull and bear markets “after” they have turned means nothing in the big picture as the herd is always late getting in and late getting out.

Forecasting big price moves means the fundamentals are going to change as well. This is why, “fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

I’m sure that at the next bear market low, we will see dramatically different fundamental news come out, and I will be very surprised if we are not in a recession as well. I mean a recession, not a depression!  When all the analysts are in consensus agreement that a recession has arrived, it will be over. A new bull market will start again and eventually move 500%, not this boring 400% 5th wave move, we are presently in.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday this SP500 also peaked at 2760, after which it plunged in price and has now experienced a mini rally. Just like any other potential peak, we need a set of 5 waves in the impending decline, as 5 wave sequences point the way to a bigger trend move. Even on flat corrections we could get a smaller zigzag correction first, and a zigzag has two 5 wave sequences in it.  When the markets are pointing up and the mass media paint us a very rosy picture, they there are not too many players left to jump in.

Any decline will happen in stages, as the last thing we will get is some big 1987 one day super crash. Since 1987 many new circuit breakers have been  installed. Sure, big down days will happen once they see there is no more hope for this bull market. I will remain bearish for the foreseeable future,  until the majority joins us with their bearish mood. When that happens the markets will turn and soar once again. Any bull market top is also planting the seeds for its own destruction, as all the greatest fools are in, convinced that they can find another sucker down the road. As the media spends time looking for those suckers down the road, it may turn out that the fingers are pointing back at themselves.

SP500 Intraday World Record High Again!

 

For awhile the SP500 started going sideways  late last year, but has now charged up to new world record highs.  This morning we are staring at the highest peak of the SP500 in all its recorded history, and it still may not be at an end.  One good thing is that I like to see a well defined top, which can make it much easier to count down from, when it starts to happen.  Any new record high, can also turn into a potential turning point, which still could take this week to play out.

Employment reports come out on the first Friday of the month, so this still could send the market into a wild frenzy in both directions during this week.

We need some decent looking impulse like declines, because 5 waves point us towards a new direction. Any nice 5 wave decline will never last all that long, as it can turn into a zigzag very quickly.  We are witnessing a 5th wave extension alright, but remember, 5th waves are never that strong from a fundamental perspective.

The big goal is to find a permanent home for a Cycle degree wave 3 because without it, we can’t find the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, and we would certainly not find the Cycle degree 5th wave peak as well.  The reason we are just approaching a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree is because the majority of wave analysts all are working from a 4th wave base, while all my work is done from a wave 2 base.

Working from a 4th wave base always puts us into a higher degree long before any wave structures have been confirmed. Working at degree levels too high, makes us very insensitive or prone to wait for the “big one”, when we should be fully loaded for the bull market to come. When our future wave counts are telling us more downside is to come, but insiders are buying their own stocks back, then that bearish wave count, has no chance in hell of ever being achieved. I’m not talking about any company share buy back program, which I see as a complete waste of shareholder money.

In the next day or two we could see another reversal, but until we see a single spike to the upside remain, anything can still happen in the short term.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

Mini SP500 Intraday New Record High Update.

The markets keep breaking the world record highs, and the SP500 is no exception. After every 5 wave run, even at this small Micro scale, we should expect a change in direction. The only thing that ever changes, is the degree where we think we are counting from. In my case I’m dedicated to finding all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, not SC or GSC degree locations.

SC and GSC degree price commentaries and forecasts are irrelevant in a Cycle degree world.  Everything starts with a wave zero location, and in this case 5 waves up in Cycle degree, started in 1932. By 1937 the markets were finishing a Fibonacci 5 year bull market, which started right in the middle of one of the biggest depressions in stock market history.

Now look back to the 2009 bottom, when the markets ignored all the bearish fundamentals, and proceeded  to soar, leaving the majority in the dust without any strong positions.

In the next 2-3 years we could be facing another major bear market, and you can bet the majority will be left in the dust empty handed again.

Getting caught up in our present euphoric, “New Era, Bitcoin world”, we must keep in mind that bull markets end when the majority are telling us that they can’t end. We have more price bubbles in the world today than we can count on all our fingers and toes, which also indicates a rather high degree top is in play. One degree higher than the 2007 peak to be exact.

Mini SP500 Record High Update.

This morning the Mini SP500 recorded another new record high at the 2675 price level. This does not mean that some wild move higher cannot happen, but my sequence of  5 waves sure looks like it’s coming to an end.  Stocks and the US dollar are pointing up while gold is pointing down, if that does not give you a clue on what is going to happen next, then nothing will.

This has happened so many times in market history and yet the majority can’t see it being set up. The year 2000 is a prime example what can happen after gold was pointing down in late 1999.  Real seasoned contrarians like Steven Jon Kaplan,  know this very well and in the future this situation will reverse once again.  I have discussed the impending bear market in an email exchange with Mr. Kaplan, and it didn’t take me long to realize that none of my future wave positions or outlook, needed any changes.  

SP500 2009-2017 Bull Trap Review

This is the March 2018 contract extended to see it as a weekly type chart. I did not include any Minor degree wave positions because I want to look at it from a bigger scale. At this record top the SP500 is working towards a small double top, which may still take the rest of this week to clear up.

Like Rick Rule says, ” you’re either a contrarian, or you become a victim”. The Elliott Wave principle is a contrarian system, because if we have a bullish wave count, in sympathy when the bullish majority, then our wave counts will be wrong. 

The 2009 bottom is a prime example where wave counts were as bearish as the herd was, so the expert wave analysts never saw the “Biggest bull market since the depression coming”. Steven Jon Kaplan sure did, as this quote is credited to him. 

At that time I was still brainwashed with SC and GSC degree delusional thinking, and I thought about an 80% retracement would happen. Of course, all those wave counts were trashed. What the wave position is at the 2009 bottom must be clear, as all it takes is one wave position to be wrong, then all our future forecasts will never work. 

I show three important levels in this SP500 chart, which will help to paint the impending bear market.  Think about our present top for a minute and ask yourself, “who is left to come”? What tribe is coming out of the jungle, and says, “Yes, it’s a good time to buy high to invest for the long term”?

We are in what I described as a Cycle degree wave 3 bull trap in stocks, and what’s coming will surprise the majority. No arbitrary 20% dip in the markets will do it, as 20% will just start to get the bulls angry. 

At a minimum the 2015 lows must get retraced, and then eventually the 2011 lows should get retraced as well. This leaves us with  the 666 price level that the markets would have to beat. What if the SP500 never gets close to that 2009 bottom, but stops around the 700-800 price range?  Ok, maybe I’ll be wrong when the SP500 stops at 699 instead. 🙄  We are looking about 3 years ahead so exact price levels will be hard to measure.

At this time my bet is still a 3 wave Primary degree correction, with the “B” being anything. It could move fast or slow, or be so well disguised we wouldn’t know where the Primary degree “B” wave ended. 

For those who are just starting to read my blog, I would like to stress that my wave counts are “never” higher than Cycle degree.

It’s mathematically impossible for us to be in “any” higher degree, until the 5th wave in Cycle degree is found. All SC or GSC degree comments and future fundamental forecasts mean “nothing” in a Cycle degree world. Not a single part of  SC or GSC degree wave counts have ever been confirmed by anyone, since the 2000 peaks. 

Mini SP500 Intraday: Surprise Moves!

It’s been about 3 trading sessions, since the Mini SP500 had its last record high. In order for this bullish top to hold, we need lower highs and lower lows to continuously form.   We are only Micro degree waves from a top, so there is lots of room left, in this market to soar. 

I try never to put many alternate wave counts up in one chart, as it’s all about eliminating other alternates first.  There are always 5  simple patterns that can happen in any specific degree, so we have to knock those 5 choices down to 2 choices.   The faster we can come up with alternates the better. In this case one more “C5” bullish wave can happen, so until all December lows have been completely retraced, it’s still a wild west show. 

This is just a quick update, as the markets could move very fast and another option shows up.  A big bear market is coming as it seems Bubble Mania has infected all the investors. I started counting how many bubbles we have in 2017, and I think I can come up with about 10 myself. Probably more,  once we include all the world real-estate bubbles.  It would not surprise me if all these bubbles burst at the same time, and when that happens, trillions of US dollars will go up in electronic smoke. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Review

I have to remind readers, that any move always has 5 options or 5 probabilities in any move the markets might take. The only difference is the level of degree.  I don’t like to draw multiple different wave counts on one chart, as that does nothing to eliminate other probabilities. 

If the top is real then, it’s not rocket science that the markets cannot go above that peak, but eventually they have to turn and head south again. Even now the markets can retrace 70-80% of the entire decline we just had.  When the crazies are playing in the markets, wild moves can amaze and surprise us when we least expect it.

My “ABC” pattern can be the start of a diagonal drive, but it also works very well as a potential 1-2 wave.  A potential wave 3-4 is not nearly long enough to make a great fit, so it may take until the end of the week, before a better picture emerges.  On this intraday chart the move looks very big, but on a daily chart, it’s just a little bee sting.  

I would like to see the counter rally expire sooner than later, but this pattern can sill soar to a new record high as a “C” wave.  If this market heads lower by the end of the day, that would be nice.  Make some room in your fridge, because the bears have sharp claws, and they are looking for some good bull meat to slice up! 

 

SP500 Intraday Stock Market Crash Update.

It’s amazing how one politician’s confession to the FBI, can crash all the stock markets at the same time. The SP500 sliced right through the bottom trend line, followed by another strong rally.  The steep angle of the crash suggests that there could be a single zigzag that has developed. This could be just another correction, but we know diagonals do start this way as well.

If the stock party is over then we know that no new highs can happen, otherwise another low will this month. I don’t see any big degree expanded patterns at this time, as that may happen only with a “B” wave in Primary degree. Even that scenario is doubtful at this time. I’m looking for the A5 wave to be a zigzag,  which will contain many 5 wave sequences with connected zigzags.

The counter rally is still soaring as I post, so we have to wait until next week before anything gets confirmed.

When the markets get this violent we know it is becoming unstable. Any 5th wave can be very unstable as it is never the strongest wave, even though a 5th wave extension has happened with Intermediate degree wave 5.

In the case of the SP500 counting from the 2009 bottom, waves, 1 and 5 are about even with wave 3 still being the longest between the 3 impulse waves.

Mini SP500 Vertical Spike Update.

At the rate the SP500 is soaring we will be in the stratosphere before too long.  Of course, investors will freeze to death long before this can ever happen.   The VIX hasn’t crashed, but has joined the SP500 for this rally. If the bears attack stocks again, then the VIX could keep right on going north for much longer. 

When a new vertical high is forming, I look for another potential reversal to be setting up.  A bull market correction would have its downside limit, but must establish a low, from which another leg up would have to develop.  Just incase a much bigger degree correction is lurking inside the crystal ball, all the support prices we can invent, will never hold.  

At a minimum a good sizable correction will go “off” the charts heading south not north. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High: Shooting For The Moon!

Once again the markets have pushed to a new record high this morning, peaking at about 2609 so far. 2610 could be within reach after which I expect another correction.  We need a much bigger correction than what we’ve been getting. We need a correction so big, so there is no hope of any recovery in 2017. At a minimum, we need the markets to retrace back down and below, the early November low. This might be far enough where any wild counter rally will no longer break new highs. 

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much, and it has been hovering around the 2:1 ratio for most of November. It seems this extreme ratio has been hitting this  2:1 brick wall, which is what I would like to see with other ratios when they become due as well.

The (.75:1)  ratio makes the SP500 extremely cheap, which means it takes less than an ounce of gold to buy one unit of the SP500. 

The return to “cheap” stocks will not happen overnight, as we have to be prepared for the long haul, until 2021 if need be. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Review

From the bottom on the 15th of November, the Mini SP500 has started on another leg up which has now pushed the Mini SP500 to about 2603.  If this holds for the rest of the day I will be surprised, but every new record high the markets give us is followed by a correction.  We had a serious overlapping problem which killed the impulse idea, but it works as a diagonal at this time.  So far the DJIA has not followed through, and has a bit of catching up to do, while the Nasdaq seems to enjoy a pretty good  looking impulse. The VIX stopped at $9.40 so far, with a big GAP still left open.

All those smart investors that just love to buy high see no downside risk in the world today. Some crazy news story can send the crowd into a mini panic which we’ve seen many times before.  How long these gyrations can keep happening, is always uncertain, but the end of the month can always prove interesting. 

In the big scope of things this market will take a big hit, and if it goes fast or slow is irrelevant at this time. Just a little dip is not enough to do the trick, so at a minimum the markets need to retrace all  previous 4th waves of smaller degrees. When it stops closest to the previous 4th wave in Primary degree, then a real bottom may start to form. The big bears think that the DJIA will fall to 5000, which would give us the 1996 solar cycle base.  If markets retrace to the 1996 prices, then this would put the SP500 at 500-550. 

Markets are born to fool everyone so if the SP500 stopped between 700-800 it would not surprise me at all.  When this bearish scenario, even gets close, stocks will already be oversold, yet the only people buying would be the contrarian insiders. 

It takes two gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500, which is on the extreme expensive side, which has not changed that much in the last week or so. 

Mini SP500 New World Record High!

Any bearish wave count I had, didn’t last very long. From the November bottom and  then followed by a 4th wave crash, created an overlapping pattern that technically would not be an impulse. In this case I will use it for a short period of time and see if a few more wild moves, turns this last run to new highs, into a diagonal wave.  The Nasdaq broke the diagonal pattern and produced a nice impulse so far. 

Old record highs have been left in the dust on most of the key indices that I follow, but we have to keep an open mind that we could be topping at another wave 3 peak. At these intraday levels, the markets are moving violently in both directions. To keep the bears piss off, this market could wobble around like this for a long, or even last out the entire year!  

After every record high, the markets will at least produce another correction, but we have to wait and see how deep any correction will go. 

Markets love even numbers so the 2600 price level would fit the bill perfectly.  What is not so obvious is that 2584 is an even Fibonacci number and if we count backwards, a 61% decline from 2584 will get us the next even Fibonacci  number of 1597. (1600) Even that number barely comes close to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, so a Cycle degree correction would have to fall much deeper. Any 987 (1000) price level would certainly fulfil part of the Cycle degree retracement requirement, as it would also retrace to 2011 market lows.  

The VIX has also crashed, and is getting very close to closing off the lowest price gap. The VIX doesn’t have to close this gap, it just would be nice to see it closed off before the VIX cranks up again.

Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update.

At this time it seems that the peak of November the 9th is still holding. How much longer that peak, can claim to be the last high, is up for debate.   I start with small  degree levels and at this level, moves like this can seem like mountains and deep canyons.   I can count out a zigzag decline, but that could be the start of a diagonal run as well.  Even the rally from last week’s bottom can still develop into a diagonal 5 waves, but that would mean the top trend line will get sliced in two.  The bearish option would slice the bottom trend line in two, but even that would not be good enough.

Eventually any bigger bearish move would have to trash every conceivable support price level.  The 2015 bottom would have to be the bare minimum that this market must retrace back down to. It will never happen in one day, as there are many 7% circuit breakers in many of the stock asset classes. In other words, they will just shut down the exchanges, giving any  wild market a chance to take a few deep breaths.

The SP500 is still pushing higher as I post, so anything can still happen. It may take the rest of the week for this to play out. Thursday the 23rd will be the US Thanksgiving Day, and there will be no postings during that time.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update: Soaring Like An Eagle

 


The SP500 crashed down to 2556 and then reversed and has been soaring all morning. We know these fast moves cannot keep this up and another correction should be coming soon.  If this turns out true, then it could still take most of next week to play out waves 4 and 5 in Subminuette degree.

At its worst, the correction could fall to the 2573 price level, which is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The Russell 2000 and the SP500 Midcaps are two indexes that are not playing this game as of this morning. These two indices could be leading indicators which has happened before, so they may no longer reach a new record high.

Violent moves like these are not normal, but combined with a diagonal market, violent moves in both directions seem to be the new normal.

Mini SP500 Intraday Progress Review

The Mini SP500 decline seems to be in the shape of a zigzag. One zigzag at this small scale does not make a complete sequence just yet.

Even though the markets have plunged a bit more as I post, we can still take a bit of downside if a diagonal 4th wave is still in progress.  Just in case this is a diagonal 4th wave, then the SP500 October low must not be breached by any amount. Being part of a bigger ending diagonal, is not ruled out, but it may take the rest of the week to remove the smoke inside the crystal ball.

At the October base, we would also be in a H&S position,  so that can give stock bears a rude wake up call.

Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Update

Early last Thursday, November, 9th, 2017, this SP500 chart peaked and has now been working its way down again. That price peak was a bit above 2594 and if this bull market is not dead yet, then the obvious must still happen. What might not be so obvious is a persistent decline that will start to make the bulls a bit uneasy as fear creeps into the markets again.  Safety in numbers will only work if they don’t bolt in every direction, otherwise the bears will have easy pickings shredding the stocks bulls dreams. 

The markets are at a small triple bottom right now, and a good downside breakout sure would help. We are at very small degree levels, which are impossible to see on a weekly or even daily charts. 

The reasons for any decline may bit exist right away, but you can be they experts will come up with a reason. 

Maybe it was the announcement of the end of the world by thousands of scientists that has investors spooked?    Who pays these guys?  Obviously, these scientists haven’t heard about the science of Agroecology. 

Even though markets could be wearing out due to exhaustion, analysts must come up with a reason “why” markets go up and down. Oil was due for a correction and is reacting or declining in sympathy with stocks. Until the markets get past the point of no return, this market can always make a fast U-turn and surprise us. 

Mini SP500 Record High Short Update

Just a quick update this morning, but will try and update later today.  The SP500 thrashed around record highs again and touched 2594 before it turned south.  It is important to know which wave is or was the last high, otherwise our wave count will never even get close. I started with the second smallest Submicro degree, but we need  this market to leave the new record in the dust, otherwise it could be just another correction.

One thing we can say is that in the last week or so, the rally was very choppy.  This usually indicates a potential 5th wave may have finished.

The big thing is that the secondary top is a higher high, which makes it much easier to start a count from.

Mini Sp500 Intraday Record High Update

This morning the SP500 broke another record high of 2593, before it started to back off and turn lower quickly. We are stuck with what looks like a double top, but the second peak was lower and it looks like a set of 5 waves could be starting. Sometimes markets reverse on Wednesdays, and further downside would help  keep the top from being surpassed yet again.  We know for the last month or so that it is futile to label a potential 5th wave like an impulse. Connecting them with zigzags is a different story as that can make it a triangle or a diagonal.  Many times there is no room to label them effectively, but we must know the difference between the two types of waves and where they develop most often. 

It would not take much for this to drop well below my bottom trend line and if it did then we have to open minded that a small expanded pattern may also be in progress.   We are working with very small degree wave structures and from that October 4th wave bottom in Minuette degree, we only have 4 degree levels left to use.  I won’t be happy until that October low is completely retraced, and by the sounds of all the Perma bulls, that will never happen. 

Some analysts even sound like some mysterious group of cavemen are all of a sudden going to invest in this market.  Only the emotional investors are in this game and they will jump on any bullish move in fear of being left out, or left behind. Running with the herd can make you feel, “safe”  but then the results can be the same as what the majority gets.  

So far this top is holding as I post, but we need much more downside to establish the last record high of 2017. We need the markets to drop so low, so there is no longer any chance for this market to hit another record high.  One full month of downside should do it. 

The Gold/Sp500 ratio is sitting at 2:1 which means it takes two Troy ounces to buy one unit of the SP500. This number should compress as stocks become cheaper again. This could take until a 1:1 ratio or even a (.75 :1)  ratio gets hit.  

Mini Sp500 Intraday Record High And The Stampede Into Stocks

Five important reasons why a stampede into stocks may be just getting started – MarketWatch

A  stampede by any group or herd always suggests some type of panic is also involved.  What seems like a logical explanation is usually always an emotional decision.  The fear of being left behind is one of the main reasons why markets go up, it has nothing to do with reason or logic or fundamentals.  “Good News” must constantly be streamed, because what will happen once the good news stops coming?

Sure, this can keep going, but any new record high can also be the last one.  This morning the SP500 touched 2587  and may still add points for the rest of the day.

The VIX also crashed to a $9 low, but has a small gap to close off,  before it can soar higher. Record complacency as investors see no fear from any  large degree market correction. Any potential recession is hardly on the radar screens, but there are some that just love to push the idea of an impending depression.

If you look at the charts of the last great depression, the markets started on a major bullish phase right after the 1932 bottom. If the history books never told you about the depression, then the stock charts would not give you a clue that a depression ever happened. Harry Dent has come up with a DJIA 5000 price forecast and when we calculate that bottom for a time period, we come up with 1996!

In 1996 the sun was ending solar cycle #22 and about to start solar cycle #23, which gave support to all other USA based indices. In the next few years, solar cycle #24 will end, and solar cycle #25 will start,  just like the sun has done many times before. Each solar cycle bottom was followed by a bull market in stocks, so by 2021 the so called next, “great depression”  better be starting to wrap up, because solar cycle #25 will produce a minimum of a 5 year bull market or even 8 years.

So far solar cycle #24 has produced well over a 8 year bull market. The short version is that, “Any” bearish mood, including “all” bearish wave counts will get crushed, once  solar cycle #25 starts to crank up.

November, 1, 2017 Intraday SP500 Record High Update

This morning the Mini SP500 spiked to the 2585 price level and has started to back off.  There could still be more upside by the end of the day, but another correction should happen. We have what looks like a great double bottom at the 2542 price level and a 4th wave bottom in Minuette degree.   A complete reversal of the 5th wave, would give me the clue that one complete degree has moved at this small scale. 

One of these days, these markets are no longer going to keep going up, and this cycle of constant new record highs will vanish, never to be repeated again.   By any stretch of the imagination we are in a bullish mood matching the crazy  Dot.com bust of 2000.  

Warren Buffett’s favorite market metric suggests investors are ‘playing with fire’ – MarketWatch

Warren Buffett’s metric confirms this which is, the opposite of the rhetoric he used just recently about the DJIA going to 1,000,000 in the next 100 years.  Maybe it will,  but not without some serious corrections or bear markets along the way. 

Sure, we are going to get major bear markets and recessions, but I don’t think we are going to get some insane deflationary depression, that many wave analysts have forecasted. The Boomers are going to fade away while Gen X and the Millennials rule the world.   

As I post the SP500 has returned to a downward swing, but we have to see what kind of staying power it has. 

I will always remain bearish in the bigger picture until the majority of investors also feels the same way. When they do, then I would turn bullish at least in the short term. 

Mini SP500 Powers To New Record Highs: Again!

I have made a few wave count changes as the Mini Sp500 powered up to a new record high today. It still may not be finished, but a correction is due. Just about every time a new record is broken, a correction will happen. How deep, is pretty hard to tell at this time, but a zigzag decline could get us another triple bottom at the 2445 price level.  To be over on the bearish side, this SP500 has to dip well below any October lows. Under the September lows would be better as then it may not have enough time to break another 2017 record high.  

So far the markets have not been scared of any bad fundamentals percolating from anywhere in the world. Investors see no fear even when many analysts are talking about taking caution. Like they are going to listen, as there is fear of being left behind with a market that can melt-up. After every meltup, a meltdown is certain to follow. We are at all time record highs in the entire history of stock markets, and what wave count this will end at will be critical. 

The SP500 is still on a tear as it keeps pushing higher as I post. 

This is the big chart going back to the early 1800s with now wave count labeled at this time. I already have many SP500 charts up that start with the 1929 peak as a wave 1-2 in SC degree.  I looked for all the extensions which eliminated the 70s bear market as a 4th wave in Cycle degree. The majority of all expert wave analysts counts the 5th waves as the extended wave, which is impossible for several reasons, 5th wave extensions do not travel across multiple generations or seasons. 5th waves are the shortest, most of the time,  and they can be loaded with diagonal waves as well. 

The move from the 2009 bottom to our present top has many waves that are best counted out as diagonal moves, not as pure impulse waves. 

I follow the same idealized pattern that I use for the DOW  and we should be approaching Cycle degree wave 3 this year. 

 

 

Mini SP500 Intraday Crash And Rally Update

From the October, 23 peak the markets crashed and did end up with a long single spike before it reversed. The SP500 has now been to a rally, and has recovered  some of its  losses. There is a good chance that diagonal waves are forming, as another inverted zigzag wave 2 in Micro degree. For the market to show what side it’s on (bull or bear side),  it only has two choices at this time.  Soar to new highs or soar to newer lows! 

Halloween is coming on the 31st, so maybe the markets are playing  Trick Or Treat” already with investors.  It would be nice for the markets show us what it’s going to do long before the end of the month, but we know how uncooperative markets can be.  This pattern is starting to bunch up again, but it is more important to see if it crosses these two situations as a 5 wave run or a 3 wave zigzag type run. 

We are looking at a top that may be the last of the record highs and it is very important to see the last wave of the bull market, so we know which wave we have to start the new count from.   If we are oblivious to this fact and expecting many more years of returns, investors will get a huge shock, as the markets start on another decline. 

Some of the tech stocks are getting hammered with news of bad earnings, or surprise bad earnings report.  Even as a small degree potential rally, it still has room to move up. Worst case scenario would be, a triangle is starting to form, and we are heading up to a “B” wave. Chances are good that this will not get resolved by closing time on Friday, so we have to keep an open mind until this move is confirmed.  

Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Update

As much as this decline looks promising to a  start of a bearish phase decline, I would like to see a few of the first set  of 5 waves completed. I started this decline in Micro degree, which can always be adjusted as we climb up the degree stack for a bear market. Many will be looking and betting on a support price level, but a support level for what? 

Is this decline going to be just another blip on the radar screen or is there more to this decline than the majority expect. Markets go up and down all the time, but  it all depends on the degree level we are in. 

There is a big difference between a Cycle degree correction and Minor or Minute degree correction. Any 4th wave Cycle degree correction is not going to happen in just one day, as it could take 3-4 years to play out. The 1987 crash anniversary date, was just late by about 3 trading sessions, but it needs to travel much deeper for the rest of the year. 2577 seems to be the peak of this 2017 high. Was that the last high of the year? It could be, but has something to say about that.

I have described it in great detail what can happen in a Cycle degree correction. Many will try and buy on the dip, but that is a bull market mentality that will not work in a bear market.  Investors tried to find the dip in 2000 and 2007.   All those bullish rosy forecasts will vanish once any decline becomes obvious to the majority which is only a matter of time. 

A SC degree crash from 1929-1232 only took three years, so I don’t see a Cycle degree correction lasting 100’s of years. 

The VIX is also making good bullish progress with no gaps open below present prices.  

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

This morning the SP500 bounced around another record high, even showing a double top in Micro degree. The way these markets have been behaving, we could get a decline thinking that the stock bull market is over, but in the blink of an eye, they can come back and trash those bears as stops get hit. 

Leading up to the mid October crash, the pattern was super choppy, before it crashed. This was a 5th wave as most of the waves overlapped at critical times. On Oct, 19th  the markets delivered a crash all right, but it was a “Mini, Mini, Micro Mini degree” 1987 like crash. Translated it means very small!  :roll: 

Short term I will not spend so much time on stocks, trying to keep wave counts on 1/2 dozen stock indices, as I need to spend more time on my commodity wave counts.  At the beginning of the week things are a bit boring, but by the time mid Wednesday rolls around, things can dramatically change. 

At this time the peak of 2577 is still holding, but how long that will last is just a best guess scenario. The October 19th dip matched the new moon exactly, but never even lasted out the day. The next day the SP500 broke another record high. Some are even calling these sequences of record highs as, “Record, Of Record Highs”. Wall Street will always find some catchy name or slogan that the public just loves to repeat. 

It takes 2 gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500,  which is one of the most expensive ratios that I have measured in the last few years. 

Mini SP500 Intraday 4th Wave Violent Market Action

The markets tried hard to play the repeat of the 1987 crash, but in the end it was just a token move, as the early bears were caught in a trap. Options expiration dates probably had more to do with this crash than any other logical reason. If the market crashes more than 7% in one day, the exchanges would shut down and give pause to any emotional moves. 

I don’t think any safeguards are fool proof as computer trading can create a lot of damage in the short term. It looks like it was a  wave three crash alright, but not even close to the degree that the 1987 crash was.  This crash was at least 5 degrees lower than what the majority of the SC and GSC degree wave analysts use.  This is a massive difference in opinion between forecasters, and until that gets fixed we will make forecasts that will never happen. 

As I post there is still some bullish life left in this party, so another small degree 4th wave may be in progress. 

Any violent move like this is not going to give us a clear wave count,  as spikes in the charts  were created that do not show up in line mode.

Continuously breaking new record highs is becoming old and boring news. The 5th wave I have in Intermediate degree is extended, and from a monthly chart view, it is virtually a straight up pattern. No vertical move will last forever, and when it starts in another bearish phase, this huge spike will be clearly visible for years to come.  

Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Update With VIX Commentary

Finally, The markets have reacted to the October, 19, 1987 stock market crash. It’s not any yearly anniversary date that the markets might react to,  but it’s the 30 year anniversary date that is the important time period. 

We do need more evidence that this decline has more downside legs to go, as any initial reaction can be still part of the bullish cycle. It is important that I find the last bullish wave otherwise, any wave count will have little meaning. Since the initial decline was rather steep, we could be looking at the start of,  diagonal wave structure as well. 

The spike to the upside is not a good bullish signal, but the markets are still struggling trying to head back up. Any analyst can give us support price forecasts, but when they do, they think they are just in another correction. The only real support we will find is the final one of a bear market low, as all others will just be temporary stops. 

That’s not going to happen anytime soon, if a potential Cycle degree peak has just completed. I’m looking for the top that will hold, as these record breaking highs may have come to an end.  Until this market is firmly controlled by bears, the risk of another bull attack are always present. 

The VIX has also soared, but created a few open gaps as it surged.

This VIX cash chart is very different from any November or December contracts. So far we have the potential for a zigzag to be completed, but that can always be the start of a diagonal set of waves as well.