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Category Archives: Mini DJIA

Mini DJIA Intraday Double Top Review

Yesterday morning the DJIA produced another record high of 26,149, after which the mini started a decline. From the beginning of January we’ve had a single move containing 5 waves in Subminuette degree. Subminuette degree is 4 degree levels above the rocky bottom of my degree list, which I cut off at Miniscule degree.   Not using a lower set of degree levels helps to judge potential extensions, and keeps me from wandering into a higher degree, before its time.

Recently the Mini DJIA topped at 26,149 with a square looking top that. I’m not jumping up and down with joy at the thoughts of a small double or even triple top wave structure. It’s the nature of the beast and I have to use several different wave peaks to count from.

It sure would be nice if the DJIA doesn’t break another world record, which the analysts are so good at counting and reporting back to the mainstream.  All I can say is, “Enough already” as we can only listen to the constant squawking parrots for so long.  “Who are all these analysts broadcasting to”? Day in and day out they broadcast to the world looking for the secret group to invest in these markets at record highs.

In reality, there is no secret group, as they are called, ” Retail investors”  which always buy in at the top.  There is something about this group that has bought in at every record high since the 2000 peak.

FUND FLOWS: Concerns Over Frothy Markets Not Stopping Investors

Doing the same thing as the herd will get you the same results as what they are going to get. The, “High Buying” retail crowd, doesn’t have the stomach and the account “headroom”,  (net cash),  to survive even a medium correction, nevermind a Cycle degree correction.  All the DJIA Titanic has to do is list to its side and the retail investor will start to panic and pull monies out again. The professional contrarian and insiders are long gone, this market, only the emotional investors are left to jump in.

In the last 17 years, investors have learned nothing about buying low and selling high as no amount of broadcasting has taught them anything.  Constantly trying to forecast how much higher this market can go, is all Smoke and Mirrors. They have no clue how deep a Cycle degree bear market can go down to but when it does, these same experts will claim how much deeper the markets can crash.

I’m very bearish on all the 5 main stock market indexes, that I cover, but we may have to put up with these intraday gyrations for a bit longer.

At a very minimum the entire Trump rally will get completely wiped out which may only be an Intermediate degree correction, nevermind the Cycle degree correction that we are supposed to get.

Mini DJIA Record High Update

In the last day the DJIA charged up and then instantly reversed heading south. So far we have another world record peak at 26,061 but we have to be aware that it also can still make another mad dash to the upside. In order for the markets being over on the bearish side already, we can keep on getting new record highs. Every new record high can be the last record high, which could mean that the 26,061 price level will end up being the last high of 2018. The VIX has also spiked to newer highs with many gaps opening as well.

Fear is starting to reverberate through the bullish ranks, but this must continue once the markets hit a brick wall.  We need some good looking 5 wave declines  to form,  as 5 wave sequences are the pointers to a new bigger and longer trend.

In the bigger scope of things I’m very bearish even if we get another record high. Not until the majority, (more than 80%), of my contrarian indicators show up, will I turn bullish.

Solar Cycle #24 And DJIA 1975-2018 Elliott Wave Review

The sunspot number has now been updated to the December end of 2017. The majority couldn’t care less about any influences our sun has on the stock markets back here on earth. Many have researched this connection, as I have done for the last 20 years. Each black dot is a month end calculation of sunspot activity.

We had two major peaks in sunspot activity, one correlated well with the 2011 gold peak and the January 2014 peak coincided before my wave 3  in Intermediate degree ended.  The 2002-2008 sunspot count starting to decline, but the markets loved it at least until 2007.

It may still take a full 3 years until sc#24 ends, and when sc#25 starts from this 2021 time frame, then the markets should follow suite.  Many times the markets experience great upheaval just a year or so before the solar cycle hits a bottom. With the Fed change coming this February, there is usually some upheaval in the markets as well, especially if the markets have already crossed over to the bearish side.  In the end sc#24 produced the biggest bull market since the depression, lasting well over 8 years now.

In the next 2-3 years the stock bears can do a lot of damage, but once 2021 rolls around and the sunspot polarity has started to flip, then we had better look for a brand new bull market to start. If you think investors are any smarter today than what they were with the 2000 or 2007 peaks, then you are sadly mistaken. The average majority will never learn that the “majority” can’t win at this game of accumulating wealth.

The sad part about the solar cycles is that even the wave analysts ignore them, as in March of 2009 they still had very bearish wave counts still to be completed.  Yet the markets turned up in 2009 and never looked back as the bearish wave counting herd were caught in a bear trap. When we are caught in any type of a trap we are ill prepared for what comes next. The markets were already showing signs of an impending reversal in late 2008.

 

I just love to show readers the linear version of the DOW as the bullish phase from the 2016 bottom to our present top is one of the most vertical moves I have ever  tried to count. I show 2 sets of 5 wave sequences in Intermediate degree, with no other degree levels labeled. I use no other indicators or prices, and I spew out little or no fundamental reasoning when markets go up or down. Markets will always act in such a fashion to never let the majority win. Sure, during any bull market it is perceived that the majority are winning, but that is only wealth on paper. During a big bear market, all this paper wealth starts to disappear and years of bullish progress go up in smoke.

The first set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree,  are much bigger physical moves. The 2015-2016 bearish phase contained a much smaller intermediate degree 4th wave. There is nothing wrong with that as there is a one degree difference between the two 5 wave sets. There are 2 sets of wave 3 positions not labeled which is deliberate, so it will force any wave analysts to scratch this time, wondering what is supposed to be between the 2 sets of 5 waves.

This market has soared since the 2016 bottom, but it also shows next to no corrections from a monthly chart perspective.  This is a bad omen in the bigger scope of things, as the markets do correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DOW 15,000 price level is a previous 4th wave alright, but it’s the previous 4th wave of a Primary degree that a Cycle degree has to correct down to.

In 2009 the markets went a bit lower than the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which has no real meaning or future implications at this time. Many 4th waves travel below previous 4th waves of one lesser degree. Besides the markets have a tendency to fool the majority of participants and so to piss off all the mega bears, the markets will “not”  go below the 2009 lows again.  They could  turn earlier than expected, and start to soar. You can thank solar cycle #25 for the next big bull market, as those investors that follow or believe in the “grand” or “super” theory will be left empty handed again.

I see this as a massive missed opportunity, which makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient,  if we keep on missing major bull markets. As long as wave analysts are happy painting mindless numbers and letters on the charts, then they will never enjoy catching a 5 or 8 year bull moves when they do come.

Every failed wave count must be followed by a serious look at the “entire” wave structure. A minimum of two higher degree levels than the failed wave degree must be initiated instantly.  In 2009 Primary degree wave 1 failed so the “ENTIRE” 5 wave sequence in Supercycle degree must be counted again. Modern wave analysts have refused to do this as it’s just too much like work. If you spend your time looking at many other wave counts, virtually every wave position today is still spewing out SC and GSC degree wave counts.

For the last 5 years I have shifted to Cycle degree wave analysis. Until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, “NO” SC or GSC degree wave counts can find a base.

Mini DJIA Record High Bull Trap Update

This Mini DJIA contract reached a peak of 25,414 yesterday, followed by a wild counter rally that also looks like a counter rally. It may take the rest of the week to clear up, but if this counter rally is over on the bearish side already, then no new record highs should happen.  One main reason is due to the many extensions we have had, but also another main reason is that we are in a much higher degree level than the 2000 and 2007 peaks were. Even a normal correction would retrace this entire small degree 5th wave before the next leg up can occur.

Any bigger correction will have no problem in trashing the 24,650 price level. Any previous bull market low can provide limited support, but eventually we need to end up with a 3 wave Primary degree correction that would send the markets into a very deep bear market. Markets always tend to head back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and sometimes they even go “under” the previous 4th wave. In this case the previous 4th wave bottom would be the 6500 price level. That 2009 crash bottom went well below the previous 4th wave in Intermediate degree, so technically the markets could do the same thing again.

Markets do have a twisted knack of fooling all the players and non players alike, so just to frustrate us this time around,  the 4th wave will “not” dip below 2009 levels. 😉 Even if it does, it will mean nothing in the big scope of things.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is just a bit above 19:1 where it’s been for over a month already. It takes 19 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA, and it’s  the highest expensive ratio I have on record.

DJIA Intraday New Record High Update

After a choppy sideways move, the Mini DJIA stock bulls decided they had enough of that and then charged up in another little choppy leg to the upside. This sideways action can fit into a small triangle fairly well, but we may not end up with a big “trust”. The markets are generally getting weaker from a fundamental perspective. That doesn’t mean that the markets can’t push higher, as emotional investors can do amazing things when they catch bullshit fever.

At the time of this posting the DJIA had spiked to 24,986 already, and it could still take until noon PST  before a reversal may happen.

From the March 2009 bottom to our present top, the DJIA has seen a gain of 384%. Not bad considering the majority of experts just figured out that we were in a recession in 2009.

From 1921 to the peak in 1937, there were two 5 wave type bull markets, one gained 595%,  and the other gained 473%. Yet the majority never saw the bull market coming.

Even the expert wave analysts were still calling for DOW 1000 in early 2009, but yet the market turned and started to soar. The contrarians of the day were very bullish as insiders were already buying in late 2008. Insiders don’t buy their own stocks back on a “whim” and they sure don’t sell on a “whim”. It may take them years before they decide to sell again.

The last thing that will work is a bearish wave count after insiders have been buying for many months already. We just finished the bottom of  solar cycle #23 so the big bearish cry babies never had a chance, as all bearish wave counts were doomed.

The chart below is a bit old, but the end target for Cycle degree wave 3 position is still the same.

All the wave counting in the world will mean nothing if we have no clue from where we are counting from. Even though the majority of  wave counting failures has happened since 2000, none of the expert wave analysis went back to 1929 and started a new wave count. When we point our fingers to the wave that was in the middle of the depression, all we can see is a single spike to the downside. This was a wave 2 SC degree crash where the “B” wave counter rally lasted about 5-6 months.

This was a Cycle degree “B” wave bull market lasting a very short time, so I’m sure a “B” wave rally in Primary degree could even be shorter.

In the middle of the depression the market turned up and soared 473% in 5 years, completely ignoring all fundamental conditions at that time. The market also did this in 2002 and again in 2009. Bull markets end when the majority have contracted “bullshit fever”. Only the completely brainwashed bulls love to buy high, and sell higher. The smart money has left the building a long time ago and they will not be back until they see their company’s prospects are going to turn around.

The Gold/Dow ratio helps in determining how expensive the markets really are. This morning we were at about 19:1 which is a bit below the average for December of 2017. It takes 19 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, and we would need to get closer to an 8:1 ratio before the DJIA becomes cheap again.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Update

During the last 10 days or so, the Mini DJIA has produced a choppy sideways pattern on the verge of breaking to a new record high at any time. Of course the idea of a nice clean single top,  has been quickly trashed. Not until we figure out which peak still belongs to the bullish side and which peaks are over on the bearish side can we build a better picture.

This will take some time to sort out as 4 of the indices I cover are still lagging behind the Nasdaq by a large margin. If a sudden spike to a new record high happens then this is a good thing, as it would be nice to see a better defined top.

Today is the last trading day of the year and if the market stays up for the rest of the day, it pretty well tells me that investors have no fear of the future. “The future is rosy ” mantra, is usually a bad sign. The consensus forecasters are all preaching to the converted, so there is nobody left to come in.  If the average Joe investor can’t convince his buddies that this is a perfect time to get in, then you know this market is already saturated.

Stock funds see biggest weekly outflows in more than two years – MarketWatch

Fund flows do get reported which are mostly ignored by the majority, but the majority can never benefit from this information as the herd moves too slow for all of them to jump ship at the same time.  This is pretty typical at major tops, so it’s nothing new from my perspective. Capital preservation is most important at market tops and this time, “It’s no Different”.  Fund flows preceded every major peak since 2000.

Gold, Silver and Oil have all been soaring, as the US dollar implodes at year’s end. When investors see their paper assets declining, they could look for refuge in gold related assets.

I wish all my readers the very best and a “safe” 2018.

My postings will be curtailed until the 2nd of January 2018.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Review

At this time we have a mini type double top with one record high at 24,896. This is a far cry from when the DJIA touched 6500.  It has now gained about 383% and many experts say it will last forever, as we are in a secular bull market. They hated stocks in 2009, but now they love them. This has happened at every major top that we’ve had since the 2000 peak. That is just recent history, as the same mood was present in 1929! Each euphoric top produced a pessimistic bottom, before another major leg up occurred. “Is it going to be different this time”? I doubt it very much!

Remember that when you are listening to all those rosy fundamentals, think about it as,  “Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

Short term this could still be just a correction, but even then the DOW could fall to a previous low of 24,200.  Right now the Mini DJIA is sitting at the bottom of the trend line, which technically will not hold when a bigger correction starts. At this point all we can do is take one new record high at a time, as record of records are being broken.

The Dow just set a record for setting records – MarketWatch

One day the DJIA will break all records of consistently lower lows. I found a very good chart that shows the psychological impact of the market swings from a very bearish low, then back up to a bullish top, and back down again. It is a very high quality chart, and all those readers that don’t understand the big swings I talk about should print it out in full color.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Anatomy_of_A_BullandBear_Market_with_Money_Flow_0930.pdf

The Gold/Dow ratio is a bit more expensive, but not by that much, as it’s presently sitting around 19.77:1. It takes 19.77 gold ounces to buy the DJIA today. Below is another high quality chart, that shows this Gold/Stock relationships.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/DowJones_GoldPrice.pdf

As you can guess I’m bearish for the long term which could last until the 2021 time period.

Mini DJIA Creates Another “New Era” Record High

Markets just keep on extending and the DJIA sure doesn’t want to be left behind. I’m sure that the fear of missing out is driving some of this mania, with Bitcoin mining, playing a huge part in the rise of the DJIA. In short the DJIA blew past any short term expectations, which means that extensions are dominating the markets right now, with most extensions being in a 5th wave.

Since the 2015 bottom, and looking at a monthly linear chart, the DJIA has created a vertical move that will get completely retraced, but the exact timing for a real top is still hard to calculate. Many times these markets would carry on into the following year, so at this point anything can still happen in the short term.

To show us another sign that a bigger correction is in progress, we need this DJIA to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction and then fall below all November lows.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at its highest it’s ever been at a record of 19.71. It now takes 19.71 Troy ounces of gold to buy the Dow. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio was only at 15.4 so it has some ways to go to match the Gold/Dow ratio.  The new moon has arrived but that can just trigger a reversal. Sooner or later investors will start taking year end profits as all the paper gains must be captured before it can become real money.  At these lofty highs,  capital preservation is most important. In the next few years you will see how many of these millionaires today, will no longer be millionaires. Trillions of dollars of paper wealth will go up in electronic smoke and disappear.

Insiders have already captured their cash as they have sold out in May of 2017, but the average investor is still hanging on waiting for better times. In late 2008 insider and contrarian buying helped to put a bottom to the stock markets along with the start of solar cycle #24.  This situation will happen again, but it will never happen when the majority is in a jubilant bullish mood.  A deep bearish mood has to develop first, as bear market bottoms are the breeding grounds of bull markets.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High And Decline Update.

The Mini DJIA soared to a new record high and ended up a bit above 24,700 before the DJIA started to tumble.  One little stumble doesn’t mean much just yet, but for a bigger, more serious meaning, the DJIA has to slice through my bottom trend line with a sense of purpose or conviction. 

When a bull market corrects it sends fear into the minds of the bulls and they start to question everything. Many know this is going down, but they figure they can get out in time to save their trading accounts.   One expert says that the Nasdaq can still rocket to 8000, what price  do you think the DOW will go to?  I doubt very much that the Nasdaq can soar to 8000 and the DOW crash down to 8000! Plain and simple the extreme rosy outlook has everybody committed already, in other words,” Who is left to get in”?  Where are those greater fools hiding, to give present market bulls the huge gains, that the experts are forecasting to happen?   When all the analysts and smart financial reporters see nothing but good times ahead, then this bull market will go south.  Euphoric bull market peaks are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and until we understand this then we will always get caught up in the bullish sentiment of the day. 

There is a big chance that Bitcoin and other Cryptos could crash right along with all the other big indices, which will not be pretty. 

At this time the DJIA has to dip well below every bottom you see on the chart above, to wake up the bulls.  How these markets have been behaving, you don’t want to underestimate the ability for this market to spike higher. Maybe it will just screw around for the rest of the year, as markets can reverse at month’s end, or in this case at year’s end. 

DJIA Intraday New Record Top Review

This world has many price bubbles in it, far too many to name from memory. From my perspective, I can name a dozen or so, but that’s about it. In the impending bull market bust, many of these bubbles will pop together, including all those most popular Cryptos coming out. I watched a video of Peter Schiff, and he says there are close to 1000 digital currencies coming out. 

I’m sure Bitcoin and the DJIA will crash together in the next few years, so be smart and stay away from this Crypto madness. 

This market refuses to go down, which could mean it will last into 2018.  I’m sure year end profit taking can still happen, but even then the DJIA has to dip very low, so it can no longer come back this year. 

Somewhere I have to find a home for my Cycle degree wave 3, that will last forever, and never be dethroned!  The impending bear market is not SC degree nor is it anywhere near GSC degree, as these two degree levels have “NEVER” been confirmed by anyone! 

At a very bare minimum, since the 2000 peak, we should have had 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, yet in the last 17 years not a single set of 5 waves has developed, except for the Nasdaq, which  is questionable.  GSC degree needs at least 1, 5 wave run in Primary degree,  yet they have never materialized as well. To put it bluntly, it’s impossible for any SC and GSC degree world to exist, until “all” Cycle degree peaks are found first.  

Mini DJIA Intraday Record Highs Review.

So far the December, 4th peak of 24,542 has not been retraced just yet.  All futures contracts will be the March 2018 contracts. The DJIA produced a small double bottom and then took off in the northeasterly direction, the second bottom traveled to new lows by the slimmest of margins, so this makes it a potential expanded pattern.  This market can still head to new record highs, but with the same breath another new leg heading south can happen.

We are at very small degree levels so I start with the Micro degrees,  to look for impulse or diagonal waves.  Stocks are in a bubble, and investors love them, but the DJIA is not as crazy like Bitcoin is. Real stock manias happen in wave 3 peaks, and not that much in the 5th waves.  From the 2011 lows to about 2015 was “stock mania” as well, and that was a wave 3 move.

Once it becomes obvious that the markets are heading down, will they run to Bitcoin or gold as a safe-haven? Stocks, US dollar and Bitcoin chart prices are pointing up, as gold is pointing down. This situation has happened throughout market history, so it’s nothing new if we’ve done our market research. Being brainwashed into thinking a “New Era” has arrived or saying, “It’s different this time”  is a myth, as the only thing that is truly different is “Time.”

DJIA New Record High Update

Early this morning the Mini DJIA created a new record high of 24,531 and has now backed off a little. From the mid November low at my Minuette degree 4th wave bottom, the DJIA exploded. This is not an impulse 5 wave run, but is a diagonal 5 wave run, with a few extensions thrown in to add to this 5th wave extension. 

We also have a huge open gap just below this peak, so it should not take too long for this gap to get closed. The peak number to beat now sits at 24,531. If we add another 1.382 to this peak we get close to 33,901. This is about as close to 34,000 that we get get, but that target will never get hit on this trip, which started in March of 2009. 

From my perspective, it is extremely important to know exactly where we are counting from, otherwise we really can’t figure out where we are. My concern is the entire set of 5 waves in Cycle degree, as without those locations being found, it is impossible for us to be in any higher degree. SC and GSC degree forecasts will mean nothing as  those numbers, is just a number picked out of thin air.  Forecasting doom and gloom is designed to strike fear into investors’ hearts, so they can sell more subscriptions. 

I have seen wave counts in the DOW starting with the peak of 1929 which has about 9 locations with unknown wave positions labeled on it,  yet it is a very popular site.  All it takes is one questionable wave count in our past, but nine?? Give me a break people!!

For those that just love to take the SC and GSC degree punishment, then my site is not for you. I maintain about 10-15 Gold/Ratios which is a big help when we have to judge when some asset class is expensive or cheap.   This morning the DJIA reached another record extreme at 19.27:1, which means it takes 19.27 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, and it is the most extreme expensive ratio that I have calculated out. On the cheap side of the DJIA,  we need to get closer to 7.19:1, which may still take about 3 years. 

 

Shooting For The Moon: Min DJIA Melt-Up!

This vertical move which started at the mid November lows works best as a diagonal move, as I have too many overlapping waves at critical places.   Today we are finishing another vertical move, after which I expect one of two things to happen. One is a bull market correction, with limited downside, but the other is the start of a much bigger correction with no real support.

At a minimum the DJIA should slice my bottom trend line before I get too excited as violent reversals seems to be the norm in the stock markets.  Usually a 5 wave sequence has to build heading down as they point the way of any new trend. The big difference is the degree level, that we are expecting. Cycle degree, SC degree or GSC degree. My vision is all from a Cycle degree perspective as the rest of the world is in SC or GSC degree. Three completely different worlds and only one can be right!      

DJIA 2009-2017 Bull Market Update.

 

This is the March 2018 contract at this time, which we will be going to when the December contracts stop trading. I stretched this wave count a bit, but it can still be adjusted at a few other positions. The most important wave count is always the 4th wave and in this case the 4th wave is in Intermediate degree.  The 5th wave in intermediate degree fell apart as an impulse, but another diagonal must be considered. One single zigzag to a new record high would work, but then the entire bull market that started in 2009 must also be a diagonal. 

The 4th wave in intermediate degree has not been moved and at this time, it is still safe at its present location. We already have doom and gloom forecasters, and we will get many more,  when this market gets serious in correcting. Many will get shocked, when the market dips lower than expected. At 21,000 the DJIA will be stepping outside the 2016-2017 trend line, which may barely give us a Minor degree correction, never mind a Cycle degree correction.

There is nobody that knows for sure what degree of a bear market we will get, and at what price level it will finish at!  I have been saying that we could turn at 7000,  while another popular number is DJIA 5000, plus a depression thrown in to crank up the fear factor.  I am very confident that when it comes down to the wire, solar cycle #25 will trash “all” those bearish price forecasts, as the market soars in another 8 year bull market. Markets will always leave the majority behind, as they will be ill prepared when they constantly waste time, figuring how much lower the markets will go. 

When we use the Gold/DJIA ratio it tells us that as of today it takes 18.3 gold ounces to buy just one unit of the DOW.  This is one of the most expensive Gold Ratio readings I have calculated in the last year or so.

Mini DJIA Intraday High Update: Is The DJIA Tired Of Breaking Records?

My iMac operating system has been upgraded this morning to “High Sierra” Version 10.13.1. So far so good, but my bookmarks were doubled up in the process, forcing me to rebuild them. I even lost one of my fonts that I use, or it’s hiding at this time. 

On November the 7th, 2017, the DJIA saw its last high at 23,557. As much as I would love to start posting a bearish wave count, this market has not declined enough to make the case  for a large bear market just yet.   We just slipped off record highs and I use Submicro and Micro sequences to make sure I start off small. The worst mistake we can make is to start with a much higher degree, which seems to be the popular thing to do. The higher the degree the more they can manipulate us by using fear tactics, with insane forecasts. 

By midweek this rally may top out, if not sooner and another leg down should happen. Worst case scenario is that a triangle is still going to form, which can push this market higher again. 

The majority will be looking for support, but when they do we know they just have a market correction in mind.  The only real support that will mean anything is the one that finishes the anticipated Cycle degree bear market,  as all other price support  levels will just be wishful thinking.

Just to get the bulls scared enough, we need the DJIA to fall below 15,500 which is just the previous 4th wave of Intermediate degree. The intermediate degree doesn’t correct a Cycle degree bear market, as at a minimum, we need the previous 4th wave of Primary degree.  Without a doubt, markets can fall well below the previous 4th wave, which the super bears are already predicting. DOW 5000 seems to be a good number to rant about, but what if it never gets there? 

Many missed the bull market that started in 2009, leaving a gain of 360% on the table. Many are convinced that this market is still going to the moon and have been brainwashed to believe a new era has started.  At the next major market low, you can bet the same setup will happen as what happened in late 2008 and early 2009.  Only a very small minority will see the writing on the wall when money flows start.  When the insiders start buying their own stocks back again., then a few months later, stocks will start to reverse. 

No matter how bearish of a wave count we may have at that time, our bearish wave positions will get trashed and the SC and GSC degree wave followers will be left behind again, or at best have a token position. 

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Review

Even though this market is pushing all my buttons in the short term, my perspective from a Cycle degree point of view has not changed. We can use any excuse we can come up with to stay with the bullish herd of investors. Traveling as a group makes us feel safe, until they panic, and then it’s every man for himself!

Last night the DJIA topped at a new record of 23,557 after which the DJIA quickly reversed and plunged.  I’m looking for the last high of 2017 where it has to correct deep enough so there is no longer any time left to break another new record high. It could take a downside move for the rest of this month before we know for sure.  The low in October is the minimum just to retrace this potential diagonal 5th wave.  Some spikes don’t show in Line type so most of the time I will double check it.  If we get close to a double bottom with the chart above, then a small expanded 4th wave could also be finishing.

In February Janet Yellen is out, and Jerome Powell is nominated. The changing of the Fed chiefs can produce some uncertainty or unexpected changes in policy, which could just add to the uncertainty that already exists. As much I would like to see any deep correction this bull market can come back with a vengeance at any time.

Mini DJIA Intraday Gyrations Update And The DJIA 5000 Forecast

We had some wild moves in the last day or so and there is a chance that this chart can touch another record high before it is ready for another correction. 

The DJIA can also push our buttons and stop just short of a new high, in which it would be just another wave 2 rally. The spike did travel further, but it does not show with a line type setting.  Since the first October peak, choppy waves have made any impulse pattern as rare as a dinosaur.

These gyrations sure can fit into an ending triangle, but it will also work as an ending zigzag from a larger degree diagonal wave. Any new low below 23,200 without pushing to a new new record high would help to quash any bullish scenario I have right now.  Today there are no net gains since that mid October high and if this keeps up,  traders will no longer get their Dopamine rush!  

Hopefully by early next week, we will know more as the full moon is this Friday. Full moons can be very bullish but many times they also do the exact opposite and the markets plunge. 

Here comes Dow 5,000, warns the guy who’s been sounding the alarm for years – MarketWatch

The forecasts for a DJIA bottom are starting to come out, and in the article about we have a DJIA 5000 forecast. Nothing really new here as they have called for this a few years already. 5000 is an easy number if you draw a line across three bottoms.  Any 5000 calls would mean that the DJIA will have to fall through 2 major solar cycle bottoms of 1996 and 2009. This has never happened since the 1932 depression. I’m sure all high degree wave analysts will love this 5000 forecast as well, as they have moved the goalposts many times already. The markets job is to fool the majority all the time and this DJIA 5000 forecast as an easy group consensus they can feel safe with. 

The sad part about this DJIA 5000 forecast is if the market is already oversold  by the time it reaches 7000 or solar cycles #25 starts. If the DJIA does not reach its lowest point by 2020-2021 then the DOW 5000 forecast will never get hit. Waiting for DOW 5000 when it’s going to soar to 34,000 will leave the majority of investors holding wooden nickels again.  Waiting for a DOW 5000 wave count while insiders are buying like crazy or the Gold/DJIA ratio has exploded, will ill prepare us for the major bull market to follow.  

November, 1, 2017 Here We Go Again, Another Record High For The DJIA

From the November, 24th peak the pattern crashed with a zigzag, and then started another phase that also just looks like another zigzag. Diagonals can end like this as well, but I have to look at this top in the DJIA as a potential expanded pattern as well.  Any correction still in progress, can retrace my 4th wave support before it starts to crank up again.  

Only when any correction falls deeper than expected can we look for that last top ending wave. Every excuse is used to keep this bull market game going, but that can only last for so long. 

It’s still not safe to put up any Cycle degree wave 3, but that does not mean we ignore any impending Cycle degree correction. 

It will not be one big Cycle degree crash, as the 7% circuit breakers would kick in, (maybe)  :roll: Any panic is just the majority of participants all coming to the same conclusion at the same time, and we see that on a smaller degree scale many times.

Fear levels can never be maintained, for long, as stress will wear them out, or force them to drop out of the bull race. 

 

DJIA Intraday Crash Update

Since my post yesterday the DJIA only travelled a bit higher before it succumbed to another bearish decline. Yes, we have a steep decline this morning, but we do have very small degree counter rallies.  How many times have we tried this before, but failed.  In the last year or so there were no real healthy corrections of any degree size.which has produced a massive single spike in the DJIA charts.  There is a potential for an impulse decline, which have an extended wave 3. Any 5th wave can also extend so, we could get a double whammy.   We are not going to get an 87 like crash, as circuit breakers are supposed to kick in after a single 7% drop. 

That sure does not rule out any smaller fast moves down, like this morning. 

At any major top, it is a good idea to review the biggest degree level, so we don’t come up with a DJIA 1000 forecast. 

This is a linear chart posted October 8th, and it shows a very clear long spike trying to reach to the moon. The spike up top is the opposite of the long spike at the 2009 bottom, so buying on a dip is going to give you nothing but headaches. Yes, many will expect the markets to go below all 2009 lows. But I think the markets will try and fool the majority again, by doing something else. This bearish phase can stop well short of any 2009 lows between the 7000-8000 DJIA Price level. 

I have posted my simple idealized version of a Cycle degree correction, which contains a flat. Triangles are the last of my picks as we don’t have enough time in the next few years for a triangle to play out. After 2021, we could run into another 8 year bull market, which would have to be part of a triangle.  The last thing US markets are going to get is an eight year bear market rally. 

DJIA New Record High: Chasing The Bull!

One minute we think this stock party is over, it surprises us  and soars to a new record. The SP500 and the Nasdaq are lagging a bit so they may still surprise us as well.  Every new record high will also be the setup for another correction as emotional traders just love to chase a bull market. The last high was about 23,414, and it still may not be finished.  They really don’t care about fundamentals, as they only care about not being left behind. There is a mix of impulse and diagonal waves, but at this 30 minute intraday scale, there is little room to label them. 

How long this nonsense can keep on going, could stretch to the end of the month. Obviously, a simple single crash is not going to do it, because we need a more sustained decline to lock in any major top.  This market has gone much higher in the Elliott Wave sequence than the 2000 peak, followed by another higher peak in 2007. Each major peak is separated by one degree level, but they must all be kept in sequence as well. Just because this 2009-2017 sequence is much taller and longer than what the majority expected, does not mean we are jumping into a Supercycle degree world. This may not happen until 2029 when a 100 year cycle has completed. We sure are running out of time where we can say that years ending with a “7” are bearish years, but the same thing happened at the Oct 2007 peak. 

Mini DJIA Intraday, Crash, Bang, Boom Review

On the exact date of the 30 year 1987 crash, the markets did crash, but then turned around and soared to new record highs again. I’m sure that many market bears were already shorting the markets, but many of their stop loss orders were triggered. It seems pretty ironic that the markets moved the exact opposite way that many 1987 crash watchers were thinking.

I had to move my smallest degree levels up one degree which extends this insane market a bit more. Did we just have a mini violent 87′ crash? Maybe, but many 4th wave crashes also give us a warning, with the only difference being what degree level we think we are working in. Sure the 1987 crash was a big deal at that time, and most wave analysts called it a Primary degree 4th wave crash. If we look back in chart history the 87 crash looks like a little bump compared to what we have had since the peak of 2000.

Once all the markets have been extended, the 1987 crash was a  Minor degree wave 3-4 crash, which is a full 2 degrees lower than any Primary degree crash. A 2 degree difference,  can throw any wave count out by 2.618 times. Worst of all, the wrong count for the 1987 crash pushes us into SC and GSC degree wave counts much sooner than we should be.

After the 1987 crash the markets soared as a 5th wave extention, that turned into another stock market mania. As I post the markets are still pushing higher  so this rally still wants to head up.

DOW 23,000 You Got To Be Kidding!

I never thought that the DJIA could hit the top of the trend line for the third time, but sure enough it is close to doing just that. Three trend lines can give us a price level where we cross over to a higher degree than what the 5 diagonal waves were. Any decline below the middle trend line would push this market into the Primary degree world. 

Most trends like this also produce about the same angle, from the bottom left corner, to the top right corner. Any market that has a sustained bullish phase, can switch into a blow-off situation. Long tall skinny wave structures can do the trick, but this has been going on for some time already and it seems it’s not ready to die just yet. Of course, when the bearish crowd throws in the white towel and gives up, it turns and crashes. 

When the intraday charts are fuzzy then it is best to review the daily charts. In February of 2018 Donald Trump may bring in a new fed chief as Janet Yellen could be leaving her post. If and when it happens, this can bring turmoil into the markets and hasten any Cycle degree 4th wave decline. 

Mini DJIA Intraday New Record High Update

I’m not happy with this DJIA intraday wave count as I’m using cosmetic wave counting methods. Either way we are looking at diagonal waves where critical wave structures constantly overlap. So far the entire month of October has been this way, but not nearly as flat as what the SP500 is developing. It all fits into the diagonal wave structure bordering on being an ending diagonal as well. 

Today the DJIA created another little spike to the upside pushing to the 22,946 price level. How many times this has happened, I’m not sure, but we know that’s also breaking records. In the long run, we are headed for a Cycle degree wave 3 top, and to correct a Cycle degree bull market we have a choice of 3 simple patterns, and these patterns must have a specific wave count based on an idealized pattern. 

Of course, if our perception of an idealized pattern is not clear we can create any wave counts we think that we see. Expert wave analysts thought they saw a wave 1 in Primary degree back in 2009, but were proven to be completely wrong.  Can this happen again at the next market crash bottom? It sure can as many think we are in SC degree or even GSC degree.  

It is medically impossible for markets to be in SC degree, without finding “ALL” the 5 waves in Cycle degree first. It may take 2-3 years or so, but when the big bearish bottom arrives, nobody will be ready for it. Only the seasoned contrarians will be ready and that only makes up 3-4% of the investors. 

As I post the markets are charging higher once more so I expect a new set of record highs will be created again. 

Mini DJIA Intraday World Record High Update!

In the last day or so the futures market was still active. This morning the DJIA made another violent move to the upside and then instantly reversed and started heading back down. This wild swing produced a DJIA high of 22, 799 so far. I like to see reversals like that, but we have seen quite a few other reversals in the last few months, and the markets pushed higher after each reversal.

We need the markets to go down longer and with a lot more conviction before a longer and bigger correction shows itself.   Any previous sideways pattern can become support,  but those are all very small wave degree levels. I like to see the DJIA drop below the 22,680 price level for starters, but ultimately the entire October rally must eventually get retraced.  I show the wave count as an impulse type wave, but skipping one wave is about the same as diagonal wave counting.

Yes, the VIX joined in as fear returned to the market place, but the VIX now has another big gap open below. If this gap in the VIX still needs to get closed off, then only time can answer that question. The 10th of each month can produce turning dates, and the only question is for how long this spike will hold.

Virtually every stock index that I cover, is recording new record highs today.  From my perspective, you can’t get better synchronization than that, at least in the short term.

Mini DJIA Another Intraday Record High

As the world churns, the DJIA keeps on breaking new record highs.  The news about any new record high is starting to wear out, or should I say “Who Cares”?

I admit that this stock market top has been much harder to get right,  than the 2 previous major peaks of 2000 and 2007. One major reason is that we are 2 degree levels higher than the 2000 peak and only one degree higher than the 2007 peak.  To really frustrate all the wave counters this market can keep going higher and higher. So far 22,631 is the number to beat and that it is happening mid week  is also a big plus. 

When a new high is reached, then there is always a big chance for another correction. One day it may be the correction that keeps right on going south,  surprising most of us in how deep it has traveled.  Any wave 4 correction, which must be specific to the degree, gives us at least 3 options of the different simple corrective patterns.  Any triangle is at the bottom of this list, with a flat being at the top of my list at this time.  Yes, I would like to see 3 corrective waves in Primary degree, but a worst case scenario could produce a straight down pattern, with very small wave subdivisions.

We are still years away from this playing out in its entirety as we have until solar cycle #24 ends. This may take until the 2020-2021 time period to play out, followed by a 5 wave bull market in primary degree. The 2009-2017 bull market was only 5 waves in Intermediate degree, and then a diagonal 5th wave as well. 

Bear market rallies don’t last 8 years as I have never seen them in 200 years of market history. From 1929 to 1932 was only 3 years for a SC degree correction, so there is no way that any future SC or GSC degree bear market is going to last 100’s of years.

The first major hurdle any bear market will need to retrace is the entire Trump rally, and then there is a high degree possibility of a crash below the 2011 lows.  Any 2011 lows will also retrace the entire “Stock Mania” bullish phase. 

Mini DJIA Intraday Another Boring Record High!

These record highs that the markets keep giving us, just keep on going, and going, and going. Just like the Bunny Rabbit in the battery commercials. They must be Lithium batteries because even now we have a bit of sideways action which could lead to another record high.

So far the 22,554 price level is the last high, but the VIX also spiked up with a huge gap, which could mean more upside can still happen. From last months dip in the markets, the pattern has been choppy to say the least, suggesting it is struggling with another diagonal pattern. 

I would love to work a new bearish wave count, but the markets are never that accommodating and easy. The easy wave patterns are usually traps, putting us into the wrong pattern,  and wrong degree, at the wrong time.

If this peak holds, we surely would want to see a substantial move to convince us that the next bearish phase has started. At 21,750 we have an open gap that needs to get closed off, but that is still rather far away. The 22,150 price level would be a near term price target that would have to get retraced. 

Eventually the markets would have to go deep enough so they can no longer recover in 2017 to create another record high. All these new record highs would all have to go the way of the dinosaurs, as constant new record highs are associated with the extra higher Cycle degree peak.

I’m sure any bull market correction would also present a few extra problems, if we tried to call the end of a bear market too early. 

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Review.

At this point we are still just off record highs so anything can still happen in the short term. I started in Submicro degree, but now have moved into Micro degree for the next anticipated sequence of moves. The VIX has a gap that is open below, which I think still must get closed off before fear returns to the stock market.   The top could represent wave 3 in Cycle degree, so any anticipated large correction could go very deep before any strong oversold condition may  present itself. 

Warren Buffett has recently posted extremely bullish forecasts where the DJIA could see a million in the next 100 years. He says anyone shorting the US markets are crazy. Well, he has enough money that he can ride out any market crash, which regular investors can never do. Sure, in the long term I’m very bullish as well, but it is crazy to think it will travel up for the next 100 years without any major corrections. (Bear Markets)  There will be wild bullish and crazy bearish cycles that will be extremely hard to imagine if we just have a short term memory. How did the popular buy and hold bullish investing strategy,  work for you from 2007 to 2009? Even from 2000 to 2002 when many of the dot.coms were wiped out and even disappeared. 

Warren Buffetts comments are just bullish feelings reflected by the crowd. Staying extremely bullish in the face of absent insider buying or any insiders owning stocks is futile. 

The Nasdaq has also made some downside progress, but it needs to show us that this can be maintained. 

Mini DJIA Intraday Peak Update

A wild move to the upside and then a wild move to the downside, which just goes to show how the emotional traders are being whipped around by this market.  The question will be if this market can maintain any downside at all as it seems to be roaring back this morning. The last record high seems to be 23,387, which may or may not hold.

The 21,750 price level could be a temporary gap support level, with 21,555 being a setup for a downside breakout. I like to see more downside to come, but we are at the mercy of the markets. Since the 2009 bottom, this market charged along no matter what bearish wave counts, we may have had at that time. 

From the 2009 bottom up to this present 2017 peak I consider it as being “one” move, subdivided into a diagonal 5 waves in Intermediate degree. Since the 1942 bottom the 2009-2017 bull market is the third set of Intermediate degree sequences. If we end up having many more, than 3 sets, then we know our wave counts are definitely off by a mile.

The EWP is not just about flipping numbers and letters around, as counting the many sets of these waves is just as important. In the big picture all may wave counts are based on a Cycle degree wave 3 bull market, but we have to remember that we are also under the influence of wave 3 in SC degree, wave 3 in GSC degree and the really big one of wave 3 in Submillennium degree. 

All three sets of idealized waves 3-4-5 have been posted for some time already, so the Cycle degree rants, should come as no surprise. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record Top Review And The Impending Bear Market.

The SP500 topped out on September, 20, 2017.  The last record high price I have is 2507 before the SP500 started to turn down again. We’ve had so many of these record highs, I don’t waste my time counting them all. The little move down is nothing in the big scope of things, but we will see if a bearish wave count can be maintained. There are too many overlapping waves which makes the September rally an ending diagonal, with a 5th wave extension.

Many analysts were expecting a bearish September, but instead this market has given us a 2 month rally. Still, we need more downside evidence to help confirm the next bearish phase. There is an open gap below at the 2460 price level, with 2415 supplying temporary support. 

As I post the SP500 has been on a rally with some vigor, so it would not surprise me if another record high gets created. This constant breaking of new record highs will stop, once the SP500 and many of the other markets have flipped over to the bearish side. 

Sometimes the markets would stop dead for hours before moving again, which makes it about as exciting as watching paint dry!  😎 

As much as I see the majority being in a giant bull trap, does not mean that this bull market will not go down without a fight. I will maintain my bearish mood even though the markets could still move higher. 

Mini DJIA Intraday Update: Still Breaking Records.

All the historical wave counts I have done, I don’t recall any of the peaks to continuously break record highs month after month. Now the diagonal 5th wave has extended, with the “C” wave sure looking like an impulse type wave. This morning the DJIA also made a swift reversal, creating a spike in both directions at the same time. The DJIA is still on a rally and has now pushed to 22, 314. Tomorrow is a new moon, which can produce some wild turnings. The problem with any moon cycles is that they are not reliable enough.

A long skinny run like this, is not very stable and can implode or wilt away like some dried out flowers. I sure hope these gyrations do not last to the end of the month, as I would love to start a bearish wave count instead.   This bull market has now been running well over 8 years which still makes for a perfect Fibonacci number. Besides long generational bull markets, many other bullish markets have run 5 years and 8 year bull market phases. 

After 2021 I’m sure we will get another 8 year bull market that may take the markets to that 2029 time period. 2007 to 2017 is only 10 years, but that is usually the time between crashes and recessions. We still have 3-4 years before solar cycle #25 starts so anything can still happen. Every scientific satellite will be focused on the sun at that time, and a very specific event should happen. When the new sunspots come out on the northern limb of the sun, they will have switched their polarity.