Category Archives: S&P Midcap 400 Index

E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Index Bull Market Review

This is the cash, futures price chart, expanded to a weekly chart with 1500 bars. I kept the wave count fairly simple, but the most important question is, “what degree and pattern is our present bull market”?  Starting back at the peak of 2000, we had a sideways, and then a fast down move which is a flat. From late 2002 to 2007, the markets gave us another bullish phase lasting close to 5 years.

By mid 2007 this market was ready to implode, and sure enough the world was embroiled in a financial crisis, which it’s still trying to recover from today. I have the early 2009-2018 bullish phase as 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, terminating at a 5th wave in Primary degree.

If this 2009-2018 rally suddenly becomes a 5 wave set in Primary degree, then anyone with this wave count has transported themselves into the future a long time ago. One simple large degree being in the wrong place, can move us around in time by 100-200 years.

Moving wave positions around with no respect for the sequential math involved, is the fault of consensus analytics, it’s not the failure of the EWP.

If our wave counts cause us to miss complete bull markets, then it’s “high time” to throw out our original premises and start again.  The general guideline I use is, “if a Primary degree 5 wave set fails in any direction, then at a very minimum, you have to completely recount all wave structures going back two higher degree levels”.

A Primary degree failure must force us to review all past SC, and Cycle degree positions. Any kid with a hacked EWP book can baffle us with the mindless use of numbers and letters. What good does trying to count all the mini, mini, micro mini wave structures, if we end up missing an entire 8 year bull market? Sure, I count the small intraday wave structures, but I do that with my finger pointed at the screen or from a printout.

In the next 2-3 years, it will be important to recognize a large “ABC” pattern when it starts to finish, as after this “ABC” pattern has completed, another 8 year bull market would be ready to rise from the ashes again. Below the 2011 low of 400, is the minimum retracement that we would need. More downside than that is not a problem for any impending bear market. I like to be specific in what I must have or must get, so it becomes easier to notice early when we are wrong.

S&P Midcap E-Mini Record High Review

Since the mid August bottom this mid cap cash, futures chart shows a bullish leg that moved vertical in the last few days. A vertical move and new record highs, is a clue that, at a minimum,  a correction is coming.  The million dollar question is how big of a correction, we should expect.  A Cycle degree crash is still a correction, even if it loses 80% of its value.  

It is the majority of analysts that will call it a huge bear market, but they will not find out until everybody parrots the same consensus opinion over and over. Until this chart takes out or slices the bottom trend line we will not know for sure that a big bearish phase is already in progress. 

Every decline I start with, I look for a set of 5 waves, because they are pointers to a new direction. I already have the idealized wave count up for a Cycle degree correction, and most markets may stop well before any 2009 lows. If you are still super bearish by that time, then markets will leave you in the dust, as the solar cycle #25 bull market starts. 

Nothing that hasn’t happened before, as 2009 is a perfect example what the upswing of solar cycles can do. 1932 was also the bottom of a solar cycle, so it has happened many times before.  

We can still have a full 3 years for this mythical correction to play out, and investors will be fleeing the markets in fear. I’m sure the markets will be in an over-sold condition long before any major correction finishes. 

When the conditions are right then insiders and the seasoned contrarians will be the main buyers. Insider buying of public companies must be reported, so this is not some secret information available to just a few people. 

E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Index Intraday Record High Update.

Since mid August 2017 this Midcap 400 index soared to new record highs once again.  So far the tops between all the other indices are fairly well synchronized. That also means then can crash together when the time is right.    A steep run like this is not normal as bull riders just want to pile on because it is going up. Most of these moves have little to do with fundamentals, but have more to do with chasing a bull market. Retail investors just love to buy high and ride the extremes, but as history has shown us, no trend ever lasts.

Single vertical moves always run out of steam and the very least we should get another strong correction. We have many open gaps below so all these gaps make for a great target price. I would love to see 100% retracement of the entire 5th wave rally, but that would act just like a bee sting. We need a big correction that will cause the majority of analysts to wonder what is happening.

How deep can a Cycle degree 4th wave go? I will be surprised if the Midcaps don’t fall lower than 800. This would take the next 2-3 years to play out and the markets have to give us a clear sign that they are ready to do so.

E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Index (EMD)

This S&P Midcap 400 has also pushed to newer highs but is still far away from breaking any new world records. We were about 44 points away from an upside breakout, but in the process a few critical waves overlap that makes them next to impossible to fit into an impulse wave count. By early next week we should know more if the Midcaps breakout.

I’m staying with my starting degree level, but a new breakout would definitely change that. If this is part of a counter rally, then without a doubt the Midcap 400 must still crash below that 1685 price level. This week should be the end of the September contracts, but the December contract looks ugly at this time. I will see how December looks, in the chart detail it gives me, but I may have to stop the wave counts on this Midcap for awhile. 

S&P 500 Midcap Intraday Rally Update.

This Midcap chart has also tried blasting off to the moon, pushing the index further than I wanted to see. This is not the start of some impulse wave which would soar to new record highs, but it has far too many overlapping wave structures. The “C” wave bullish phase is very typical with the big difference being the degree  level that we are dealing with.

This rally is getting into the previous high, but can go above the 4th wave if need be. To confirm that this rally is just a bearish rally,  the Midcaps have to crush that 1685 price level, by a wide margin. Another zigzag would work just fine, helping to keep this index as a leading indicator. The VIX is headed to $10.50 reflecting the sudden mood of complacency. When investors become complacent again, you know the markets are getting ready to deal a blow to the  bulls egos again. 

Once a decline becomes more obvious to the majority, then we could see the pace of any decline pick up and waves starting to smooth out again. 

S&P Midcap Intraday Update.

This Midcap chart decline, sure looks very similar to the Russell 2000 decline giving us two indices that seem to be leading the bear charge heading south.  This is a good thing as we have a few indices that the majority has been ignoring. When the media wake up and starts paying attention, then chances are good the Midcaps will be ready to rally. 

The next leg down should also be a single zigzag with alternating A5 and C5 wave structures. It could be a short decline, but we have to see how the pattern starts to unfold, before we jump to conclusions. 

At this time the Cycle degree wave 3 is up, but this may be temporary if I’m still far too early. If I’m way out in left field I assure you the markets will ‘force’ a major review, where I have to find a better fitting location. For over 15 years these markets have force reviews on all my early wave counts. Constantly going back in history to find what you missed, takes a long time to do, which many of the expert wave analysts have never done. 

For now I’m bearish until this rally is completely retraced, and a new record low is regurgitated by the parrots. This is harder to determine at this intraday scale, as this index is not on the radar screens in the first place. 

S&P Midcap Intraday Review: Still Leading!

Last month the Midcap futures contract hit a major peak. It has since been rolling downhill followed with about  a  2 day rally. I would love to see my wave 2 top hold, but we have to keep our choices open, just in case it can still rally to my previous “B” wave top.   Some indices do  take the lead while the rest of the planet is focusing on the record highs that the DJIA and the SP500 have been making.  

It’s the classic magician trick, by causing a distraction in one area, the real decline could be well advanced in other less known indices. I’m sure the same thing will happen at any major bottom when the long term base can give us an early bottom before anyone clues in. 

At the 2009 bottom the Midcaps were at 400 which left no room for any major 5 waves to still play out. At the same time they were screaming DOW 1000 yet the exact opposite happened. From a 400 base and the worst fundamental conditions the markets performed a miracle and started  to rise. It ended up being the biggest market rally since the depression, leaving the majority scrambling to get out while they should be doing the exact opposite. Insider buying had already been in full swing by late 2008, so a bottom was already fast approaching.

Insiders made their mass exodus in May of 2017 leaving the retail investor holding overpriced assets as they head into the markets. In the long run they will pay the price as the concept of buying low and selling high is a strange idea to most. 

S&P Midcap E-Mini Bearish Decline Review

The S&P Midcap is another index that seems to have started its decline a bit earlier.  I try to isolate the single most important wave at any top, so we can have a clear wave to count from. Yes, I started with a small impulse, but that will be adjusted once this decline lasts longer or becomes bigger in the next few months. 

The last peak was about 1794 in July, yet the mainstream media was hyping the record highs that the DJIA and SP500 provided. This is an old magician’s trick to keep us fooled,  thinking that the stock market is still in some big bull market. 

At any time we could switch into diagonal waves as the first 5 can look like innocent impulse waves, but the next five could get real ugly. Waves may get physically bigger and start to overlap dramatically if the wave 1-2 I show, is a flat in a “B”wave connecting a zigzag.

In the bigger scope of things we want to see this trend continue putting a lid on that July peak. That July top would eventually be the Cycle degree wave three top, and to correct this Cycle degree wave 3 top, we need a 3 wave correction. They will call it a bear market once it gets going. 

Yes the label “Bear Market” sounds impressive and scary, but in reality, it’s just another correction in a bigger bull market yet to come. This bull market may not be ready to start until 2021 or so, so don’t get into a panic by buying on any dip now. 

Many may think it’s a good time to get into the stock market, but record highs can also be a good time to slaughter all the sheep that follow blindly. What possesses investors thinking it’s a good time to get into the markets at record highs,  is a lack of investor willingness to do their homework. Investors just getting in are buying into what could be another 1929, 1987 or 2007 like peak, after which this market could suffer a 70% decline.

Markets are not fond of years ending with a “7”, as 7 seems to be an unlucky number for stock markets. This may take until 2021 to play out, and until that year arrives, this market can make many twists and turns that will boggle our minds.

In the next 4 years or until solar cycle #25 starts to appear in the Northern Hemisphere of our sun, we could be in a giant flat or zigzagI prefer a flat as this would be the opposite of  what happened in wave 1-2 in Cycle degree. We don’t have enough time to complete a high degree triangle, which seem to be very rare as well. 

S&P Midcap E-Mini 2009-2017 Review


Since the 2009 bottom this Midcap SP500 futures chart, has been in a massive bull market containing many wave patterns that just don’t fit well once we try and count it as a true impulse.  It has now lasted well over 8 years, which rules out the possibility of it being a giant bear market rally.

Any real bear market rally would contain far more extreme moves in both directions than what we see now. I see it as a diagonal wave,  which develop in 5th waves regularly. Even if I changed it to a potential single zigzag, it still can be a 5th wave. 

From 1921 to 1929 the same pattern can be seen, but at that time it  came from a Primary degree diagonal 4th wave, which is not the case this time.  The goal is a Cycle degree wave 3 peak, after which we should get one move in Cycle degree, containing 3 moves in Primary degree. 

The present top sure can fit into an ending diagonal, with moves getting violent, but still very small compared to the other wild moves we’ve had. 

In the next 2-3 years, we can expect one of 3 possible simple corrective wave patterns, with any triangle being down at the bottom of our choices. This puts a zigzag or a flat in the running for choices,  with a flat being the top contender at this time. 

Two main price levels that any deep correction can take will retrace the entire rally that started in early 2016, (1200) while the other critical price requirement will be at the 2011 lows. (750) I’m sure the markets will eventually travel much further south than that, but it can also stop well short of the 2009 lows (400).  I’m sure the markets will be in a massive oversold position long before the real bottom arrives, but the majority will be selling as fast as their little algorithms, or mouse clicks can act.    

Of course, as everyone is screaming to get out of the markets, a miracle will happen, as the market hits a bottom and starts to soar on another 8 year journey heading north. 

Be prepared for all this to take at least as long as solar cycle #24 is still alive, but after solar cycle #25 starts by 2021 or so, then all  bearish forecasts will get trashed with no sympathy or mercy. 

At present the intraday markets are still gyrating, so hopefully this will start to clear up sometime soon as we have a bit over 3 months before the 30 year anniversary date of the 1987 stock market crash. Come to think of it, the 1987 crash bottom was also the bottom of solar cycle #21. The markets and our entire planet run on Fibonacci ratios,  and Fibonacci even numbers, so we can’t run and hide from them, but should take advantage of them. 

SP500 Mid Cap Stock Review



This cash contract has not seen new record highs since December 9th 2016. Unless a new bunch of Trump followers come out of their caves and bet on the Trump Bump, I can only see this Mid Cap grinding its way down.  The January rally was a three wave move and they have an extreme chance of getting completely retraced. 

Just to get back down to November 2016 lows, there are three gaps that have to get closed off, so anybody staying on the bullish side will get hammered hard, in the next few months. 


S&P 500 Midcap Intraday Bubble Top Review



At this time it sure looks like this Midcap index topped on the 8th of December ahead of  the DJIA and SP500.

The media reports on what is sensational, as this Midcap chart is ignored. This an all good as this chart can work as a leading indicator many times. The SP500 has backed off today as well, so we have to see if that continues as well.  

Diagonals always seem to be present, which can really throw a monkey wrench in the wave counts. I try to start with low degree numbers, to avoid jumping into a higher degree where I should not be. Once any decline becomes more obvious to the public, then any short term degree adjustment will have to be made. 

Longer term I’m very bearish, but short term things can remain irrationally bullish.  

E-Mini S&P MidCap Stock Mania Review




This chart is in linear form which makes the bull market look more impressive. Since the 2009 bottom we had a rocking bull market that most wave analysts missed. This has turned into a 400% gain, which nobody was prepared for.  The real rotation into stocks got going in 2011 and we know this because gold stocks started to implode, and the US dollar was also ready to fly. 

It makes no sense to me to believe that we are starting some great move into stocks, from an already very bullish top. We also have a very vertical move breaking to new all time record highs.  A major top may have already been in a few days ago. So how long will it take, before market observers change their minds and become bearish again?  

The entire bull market has been a diagonal 5 waves, which includes many overlapping wave structures that will not fit into impulse waves.  

To help confirm that the Cycle degree wave III has a good home, we know that the markets have to drop fairly deep, well below any 2015 lows. At this time a flat or even a zigzag can happen, but any triangle is pretty low on my list.  Any bear market has to finish at about the same time as solar cycle #25 starts. You never want to bet against the power of the sun by being bearish at that time as it could turn into a 5 or 8 year bull market once Cycle degree wave IV has completed. 

We had a run of 5 diagonals waves in Intermediate degree, so there is no hope of ever getting 5 waves down in Primary degree as we would go to zero if that was the case.   They tried that magic act back in 2009 already, but I’m sure they will try and repeat the same mistakes again. 


E-Mini SP500 Intraday Review




From the September 23rd peak the pattern that the Sp500 has made down into the October 13th low has the look of a zigzag decline.  If this is the case, then this market can still break above that $1275 price level and still go higher. Mind you it will be a choppy ride all the way,  so be prepared for some wild swings still to come. 

All this could be due to the uncertainty of the US  elections, in which we still have to wait until the 8th of November to find out. This election will also take place during one of the most volatile weeks as all sorts of employment reports will come out by the first Friday of every month.  It matters not who wins, as this market is going down regardless who gets in.

 From my personal point of view, I do not want to see Donald Trump, win the election, as it sure seems like he is a big cry baby, and Hillary Clinton has too many skeletons in her closet. 

When the winning president takes over on Inauguration Day, Friday, January, 20, 2017, is when all hell can break loose as all the new minions will kick out most of the old guard.  With a lot of back stabbing, and scores to settle, which will create policy changes that can cause huge problems going forward.

E-Mini S&P Midcap Intraday Elliott Wave Count Review.




From the spike bottom in early 2016 the markets reversed dramatically, but had started to slow down in the last month or so. The reversal in January 2016 are the wave patterns I like to hit with my wave counts as they provide sufficient power behind them to reduce the risk. Any deep correction scares the traders out quickly as protective stops get nailed, just in time to reverse and go higher. In theory sell into vertical spikes, and buy into bearish spike bottoms when they occur. 

Of course it is hard to buy when the entire herd is pushing bearish forecasts. I was bullish in early 2016 and about the same time Kaplan issued a HDGE sell to his members as he switched when he saw a bull run coming. In general, any wave count we can produce should correspond with what the best contrarians can do. This also happened at the 2009 bottom, so it is not just luck that this happens, as luck should have nothing to do with trading.

All those that had extremely bearish forecasts in 2009 paid the price as the contrarian signals were already pretty clear,  in late 2008.  Eventually we may have to  do the same thing again, but at a much different price level. In the next 3-4 years we may have to hit several more bottoms with the big one being at any Cycle degree wave 4 bottom.  Any anticipated Cycle degree 4th wave bottom will see maximum bearish resistance at the 400 price level. Any price level above that bottom will be very acceptable, as nobody may expect a “C” wave bottom higher than what the mega bears will tell us.

In other words the high degree wave counters will be missing the next biggest bull market in history again! My younger readers will live through this as my Goggle Analytics demographic tracker,  is showing me at this time. This is all good as far as I’m concerned, as many may have no interest in the markets until they are in their early 40’s. The earlier the better is always the best way.

This Midcap index supplies a much more well formed EW pattern, and it is a good index to track as I think it also represents the fundamentals of the economy much better. Fundamentals are breaking down already, as many of the best analysts have mentioned already.  The Wells Fargo fiasco is just one example. I follow a few good analysts on Twitter so that saves me a lot of work.  

Debt loads are soaring again, and Canada also has major issues that are catching up to us. Real Estate has popped this year in Canada, and the oil crash has plunged our GDP.

We will be fine as long as our fearless leader keeps up with his great photos and selfie opportunities. 😉 Justin Trudeau seems like he is playing the fiddle as Rome burns! 


S&P Midcap E-Mini 2000-2016 Review




I always like to remind readers that a very high majority of my postings, are made fresh everyday. Once reason I do this is to always get in a good habit of reviewing the past, as without the past, we have nothing to wave count with, or at least anything that makes sense. This Midcap index has a fascinating pattern as it is so close to being a perfect impulse that it is a joy to work with. 

If we start at the 2000 peak, and then the markets crashed produced a flat that even included an expanded pattern. Then from late 2002 the bull market until the 2007 peak, formed a very good impulse as well. That 2007 peak ended up with a wave 3 in Primary degree followed by another flat type crash.

Now at the bottom of 2009, this chart hit another ending triangle, before it started to soar up again. From the 2009 bottom to our present top is a pattern that does not follow the basic impulse script, but I think it follows the Diagonal5 script very well at this time.

I have tried every other bearish rally wave count, and they just kept falling apart and therefore should have been abandoned a long time ago. For the last 16 years not a single SC or GSC degree pattern has been confirmed. Not a single set of 5 waves down in Primary degree has ever happened.  There was never any room for an additional 5 waves down in Intermediate degree after the 2009 bottom.    

If only all the wave counting experts were screaming bullish warnings at the bottom of 2009, we would have some rich wave counters around. I figured we would get about an 80% recovery, but this proved out to be way too conservative. 

So where does that leave us now as the markets wobble at major highs?  The potential for the markets to be at a close “D” wave top, is just too hard to ignore. Until that triangle is confirmed or fully discredited, the potential for wave three in Cycle degree is still ahead of us. We could swing widely right to 2017 when the 30 year 1987 anniversary date is due. Years ending with a 7, are bad luck numbers, not good luck, as the markets can take a big beating in those years. 


S&P Midcap Bull Market Review: Break On Through To The Other Side!





This S&P Micap stock has now reached another major high by the slimmest of margins. About a 10th of a point.

This is not decisive enough at this time as it would be nice for this market to still go higher. I believe there is still the 5th wave to go, as the this Midcap created a very good looking zigzag. A zigzag correction inside a zigzag is rare so this could be wave 1-2 just as well as it could be an “AB”.

One big pattern that we can see once we apply the invisible top line, is the huge H&S pattern. Will that be a bullish H&S, or will this market permanently tank from this H&S pattern? I’m betting that this H&S will eventually be a bullish indicator.   This market could still fool around until early 2017, after the new government minions take over control, but I hope not.  The diagonal 5th wave is still alive for this index as well. 

If the wave 3 in Cycle degree is still ahead of us, then we can already formulate some simple 4th wave corrections and have them ready to go. Of course we would have to come up with 4 different wave patterns as we have to add a few complex wave structures as well. I do not favor a Cycle degree triangle so that leaves at least three other choices.  Only the flat will allow a single 5 wave sequence down the “C” wave, as another zigzag can have two.  All of them would be no higher than Intermediate degree.

Of course, all the big degree wave counters, will count any 5 wave decline one degree higher than what I would need. Not reviewing the entire wave count, would just carry all the same problems into the future, as it has done since 2000. 

This Midcap had a major bottom around the 400 price level, so when it ever gets close to that again, you have to ask yourself, “Is it going to zero”? Are you going to buy at another bottom or are you going to be fearful and believe the super bears. I know what my contrarian contacts will do if faced with that situation again.  

E Mini S&P Midcap Brexit Aftermath.




The Midcap index always seemed to shape an impulse very well. It also reacted negatively to the Brexit hype, but it sure looks like a single zigzag correction is in progress at this time.  This crash is only part of a correction and even thought it looks great as a zigzag there could be an expanded pattern down at my “A” wave in Minuette degree, and this would then make it a flat correction.  

This Midcap  chart would have to run and run if the “big one” is here, so the next week should give us more time to confirm a potential correction.  There is a small gap way up higher which would also get filled in another bullish phase. I have typed well over 1500 words today, so I need a break, but I will look at gold stocks and HDGE and post them this weekend. 

E-Mini S&P Midcap Intraday Bullish Phase Review




This market just seems to want to push higher as it is getting closer to a record new high every few weeks or so.  Friday saw an excellent drop later in the day, but we can see it ended with a very steep decline.  This sure has the potential to only be a correction and if this is true, we should see yet another leg up develop, in the next week or so. 

I would be chasing an inverted 3 wave bull market as a zigzag, and we would still have two thirds of the move left to play out.  This should not take too long to confirm as there is little room to wiggle around in. We have to look for a correction, but a straight down move can work as a correction at any time.   

E-Mini S&P Midcap Intraday Review


I also made some changes to the S&P Midcap index, as it has one of the best fitting impulse waves that I have run across.  It looks like it has turned the corner  in late April as well, so now we have to be patient to see if the trend continues.  The short story would be a 5 wave decline in Intermediate degree finishing a potential Primary degree “B” wave top. 

The only way this will work is if the rally since the 2009 bottom was in fact a bearish rally, which would make it an expanded pattern. Expanded patterns are extremely bullish after the 5th wave decline has been fully exhausted. This must be lower than the 2009 bottom, even if it is only by a few points. So if this is all real, and I’m not chasing another mythical dragon, then this S&P Midcap could end up closer to the 400 price level, when it is all done. 

Of course, anything can still go wrong and hopefully we will be alert enough to catch any big mistakes.