Category Archives: E-Mini Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq Also Having A Bad Hair Day!

The Nasdaq also carried on with its bearish decline which is dominated by the big four monsters called the” FANG” stocks.  FB is the worst and leading the way while FB, and GOOG may have completed their tops. AMZN is one stock that is still hanging on for dear life.

The Nasdaq is also on a different wave count, so out of the 5 I cover I have two wave counts that are dramatically different. In the end it may mean the difference of a few weeks when all indices start to bottom.  I have two downside breakout lines drawn out and each one can provide temporary support, but ultimately will not hold if the bigger bearish picture has taken hold. Total retracement below the 6200 price level would be required, but in a Cycle degree correction any bearish move will crush the markets. The majority will call it a bear market, but from a Cycle degree perspective, it’s just a correction, a “Big” correction.

Any market that has corrected in the past,  has always seen the markets push higher once the bull market resumes.

Ultimately the Nasdaq could fall below the 2011 lows, which is around the 2000 point level.

Nasdaq Intraday Record High Now Visable In The Rear View Mirror!

Finally the markets have started to succumb to bearish forces again. It started last week and now looks to carry on with its bearish trend until at least after the Fed announcement this week. The white elephants in the Nasdaq, like Facebook, also managed to execute a swan dive this morning.

I will also be forced to move my Cycle degree peak over, but I will wait on that until this decline starts to pick up more steam.  Those who have never done any historical stock market research will repeat all the mistakes of the past, thinking that markets can’t crash when the fundamental analysts paint us a rosy picture.  Hate to break it to you, but markets always end when the majority think it can’t. When those two words like “New Era” get regurgitated by all the parrots in the world, then the big party is over.

Back at the peak in 2000, the new era mantra was also repeated many times, so it’s nothing I haven’t heard or read about before.  In Britain and the USA it was called the “Canal Age”, until the railroads came along and produced the new age of train travel. When the majority call it a great new age, then it is usually over and a market crash ensues with recessions or even depressions. In 2007 they had no clue that a recession was coming, but it sure arrived in a hurry.

Then, under the worst fundamental conditions, like in late 2008 the market turned by early March 2009 and then soared for another full 8 or so years.

The other indices have to follow and until they make a clear effort to join the bearish party, I use caution just incase we have another fake correction.

High Flying Nasdaq Getting Too Close To The Sun!

At the rate that this Nasdaq keeps pushing higher, Investors should be careful not to get their wings singed. Yesterday the Nasdaq peaked at about 7210 before it started into another decline. I show two trend lines, but they mean little as the markets spill well outside the top trend line. Due to the choppy pattern most of these patterns do not form between pretty trend lines, but they act more like zigzags.

I believe the run that started from the middle of last month is all part of a bigger diagonal 5th wave move, but we need more evidence that a bigger decline is coming.  The earliest sign would be when the bottom trend line gets sliced in two.  After that we  have two price bottoms that need to get completely retraced.  The February 9th bottom of 6200 ended with a set of diagonal 5 waves. We may have to wait until the Nasdaq falls to the February bottom, before we get all excited about the beginnings of a major bear market.

The longer this all takes to start, the steeper the angle of the decline should happen. Last month the solar cycle sunspot activity increased which also buys us more time before any early bottom solar cycle bottom.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio managed to squeeze out another new record, smashing up against the 5:1 barrier 4-5 times this year already.

This acts like a brick wall on the bigger scope of things, and it will do the same when we get to the next major bottom. Just like the Nasdaq gave us a different 2000-2002 crash, this time I’m sure that the Nasdaq is going to give the wave counting crowd, surprises never encountered before. By charging too a new record high, the Nasdaq is now walking to a different drummer, again.

This forces me to  start looking for a new set of 5 declining waves in the coming few weeks or so.

The SP500 and the Dow 30 are still well behind the Nasdaq, and Trump would have to pull off an amazing feat, to get those two to catch up to the Nasdaq.

Nasdaq New World Record Highs!

As I’m posting the Nasdaq has hit 7111 already and there still seems to be some momentum behind this move. All other indices I cover need to play catch up, but we know that the Nasdaq can march to a different drummer. In the end we may end up with a completely different wave count, for now.

The February decline sure can fit as a single 5 wave decline which could be part of an expanded top. From the February bottom I believe we have another diagonal wave structure, which created the new record high this morning. Everything seems to be rosy for the majority of investors again as chances are good this, “Tariff War” was just a lot of hype, or any real tariffs on steel and aluminum don’t matter much.

Since the late 2015 bottom we had a massive 5th wave extension which borders on being a diagonal wave structure.  In our EWP book they call it an “Ending Diagonal” but they do not count out the zigzags that make up any diagonal move.  The 4th wave in Intermediate degree is one warning, and a diagonal 5th wave is another, so this ethusium will get replaced by pessimism again.

One thing good about this new top, is that it hasn’t created a double or even triple top. When we do get them, then it is much harder because we have to work out where the decline starts from. In a Cycle degree zigzag, we can’t have the markets soar to new highs, as that breaks every rule in the book, but flat corrections sure can produce “B” wave highs, before they plunge.

Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Update

Since the Nasdaq bottom on February, 9th the Nasdaq turned in a very bullish performance, that has gone above and beyond any wave 2 rally. The Nasdaq is now about 100 points away from breaking a new record high, so until this proves otherwise, I have to keep an open mind that a wild spike could still push the Nasdaq higher.

I’m confident that the 2015 correction, was an Intermediate degree wave 3-4, (Expanded). Wave 5 in Intermediate degree did extend  which makes it about even with wave 3 in Intermediate degree. Only 2 out of 3 sets of 5 waves can extend, with wave 1 always been one of the shortest. If it looks like wave 1 is long and or extended then chances are extremely high that it is just an “A” wave.

From the bottom of wave 4 in early 2016 I can fit the entire bull run into a diagonal but I had to move wave 3 in Minor degree up.

All the other indices I cover have to play catch up to the Nasdaq, but we know that they have done this in the past. If something has happened once, then I look for and use these moves with all degree levels. We only have 3 trading days left before the end of the month, and on the 1st we also have a full moon! Any moon cycles can be turnings, but they are unreliable in the direction they want to turn.

The longer any  bullish phase carries on, the shorter our time period to the end of solar cycle #24 will be. This could happen in late 2020 or 2021.  Overall, we could still get a 3 year bear market, but anything shorter is not a problem. What has to happen is that the scientists that track the solar cycles tell us, that solar cycle #25 is poking through in the northern latitudes parts of the sun. Solar cycle bottoms are bear market and wave count “Terminators”, and it will happen again with the start of solar cycle #25. The solar poles are not flipped until the magnetic polarity of the sunspots also change.

Mini Nasdaq Comes Back From the Dead.

The Nasdaq plunged to record lows on the 9th of February but came alive and then soared in a stunning rally.  Today is a new moon date, which in the past have produced some stunning reversals. There is never any guarantee of a reversal as it has never been reliable enough, to use on a constant basis.

What the media calls a 10% correction is just a Minor degree move in the language of Elliott Wave. That’s just a “Little Dip”  in a world where the “The Big Dip” can show up. A Cycle degree “Big Dip” can still take a few years, but many time markets have crashed just before the bottom when solar cycles arrive. This may take until 2020 or even 2021 but it sure will not be some obscure 600 year bear market.

Until all the 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, there will be “NO” SC or GSC degree bear market. It is sequential and mathematically impossible to be in a SC or GSC degree wave count, without all the Cycle degree peaks being found first.

Yes, the Nasdaq has a few quirks that produced a different pattern, but we can still use it as a 5 wave count since the 2009 bottom.

The counter rally was very powerful but most of that came from protective buy stops that were in place. Protective sell stops are piling up below present prices, and they sure are not “buying the dip orders”.

We could still see the markets rally a bit further, but sooner or later investors running with the bulls will become tired and drop out of the race. If they don’t drop out,  I’m sure the sharp horns of the bulls may change their minds.

Any counter rally like we are in, would get completely retraced, if the big bear market is going to come back and haunt us.

Nasdaq 100 “Big Dip” Update.

The Nasdaq did not display a double bottom as it crashed well below the previous low, followed by a wild rally as well. We could be on the second set of a 1-2, 1-2 wave count, and a small third 1-2 wave may also show itself.  After that, any 5 wave structure will be harder and harder to see, but we would also be running out of degrees after a wave 4 in Minor degree has finished. This could take all of February to play out, so it’s not going to happen overnight.

Usually all 5 waves play out in a rapid fashion, but then this market will give us a hard time once an “A” wave in Intermediate degree has finished. There are still many variables that can happen, so until a new record low is achieved, this market can give us a hard time.

As I post the Nasdaq is pushing higher, but mid week can also be great reversal days.  Between the 5800 and 5600 price levels we could run into some strong resistance, so any 5th wave in Minor degree should be ending at that time as well.

Nasdaq Intraday Downside Breakout!

The Nasdaq decline, we’ve had in the last few days, not longer fits as an impulse very well. I started to get some 3 wave moves, that work better as zigzags, so it’s better to switch to diagonal wave counting for now. There is the potential for a downside breakout situation to end at another “A” wave in Minute degree. We may have to wait until next week before this starts to play out, but there are many sell orders being stacked up below present prices, especially at any potential double bottom.

When the market has switched to the bearish side, then bad news should keep forcing the markets lower. Over time the “Bad news” will no longer work driving the markets down, but instead they will start to recover shortly after the “Bad news” comes out. This usually means we are going to be switching back to a bullish cycle.

With this market crash, fundamental analysts see no change in the fundamentals at all, so they remain very bullish on this market. Fundamentals don’t drive prices, but prices change fundamentals.

Predict a price crash when great fundamentals exist, and you will see the economic fundamentals change after the price change.  The fear of rate increases could be the new “fundamental problem”,  even though they already have known about the higher rates for months already. The biggest fundamental change is that Janet Yellen is “out” and Jerome Powell is “in” which happened on February, 5th, 2018

The Fed – Jerome H. Powell, Chairman

The markets had already started to crash as Jerome Powell stepped in,  so maybe the markets will hate what the new “Fed” still thinks it has to do.

All that money that was dumped into the markets in January 2018, has now been wiped out! Sent to a digital graveyard, in a puff of electronic smoke. The majority has no clue what’s going to happen in the next 2-3 years as they think just a simple 10% correction is going to happen and then the bull market will continue on its merry way.

Good luck with that, as in order for that to happen, we need the majority to hate stocks again. The public is still, “in love” with stocks so we are far away from any meaningful correction being completed. At a very minimum the Nasdaq should travel well below the 4000 price level,  and that’s just to get warmed up, as some simple minded 10% or 20% correction will not do it.

Nasdaq Bubble Deflating?

After a little rally the Nasdaq has now turned down again. I’m looking for this trend to continue if we switched over to the bearish side.already. The majority are looking just for a correction as they have no clue on what is going to happen in the next few years. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets, so it is very important that we have a single top that we can count from.  I will always start using Submicro or Micro degree as it is easier to change to a higher degree when we need to. After a few months or so the small degrees will go back into hiding and you would need an electron scanning microscope to see them.

Folks, the higher the index goes they start to extend and all the smaller degree levels start to show. The hobby and expert wave counters do the exact opposite as they keep adding higher and higher degree levels. Some still have Primary degree wave 3 ahead, which means they are about as bullish on the markets as they can get. 2015 was a 4th wave correction in Intermediate degree, which means there was one move left in Minor degree.

As long as they give you some long drawn out complex wave structure they can flip wave counts around with no consequences. They can turn the worst wave count in the world, to another new and improved version and claim to be right.  Flipping numbers and letters around with no idea what they mean is “cosmetic” wave counting which the majority of all wave analysts practice.

We could get a big Primary degree crash, and I bet the experts will still show you a bearish wave count, when in fact an “ABC” crash is about as bullish as I can get.

Over the years the EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool which is useless for the serious millionaire contrarians in the world today. If any wave count causes us to miss the biggest bull market since the depression, then this wave count has to be tossed out as soon as possible.

Sure the Nasdaq has a different pattern, but in the end it will also end at a Cycle degree wave 3 top.

Nasdaq Intraday Record Highs Update: Still Going To The Moon!

This morning the stock bulls must have been hit with a tazer, as the markets jumped a bit. Well, this has been going for the full Month of January already, and it may last until the end of the month. I changed the wave count to a big zigzag, with what I show containing a long wave 1. I normally never count it his way, but in diagonal waves this could work as an ending diagonal as well.

The Nasdaq is just a bit short of 6980 which would be the number to beat. That could happen as soon as I post, but we should be setting up for another correction. We need this market to leave a nice vertical spike in the daily cash charts, as the weekly and monthly charts already have these huge spikes very visible.

We need a correction big enough so it can never come back and soar to record highs this year. The media will always focus on how much higher this market will go, but only a few talk about how low it can go.  Any 20% correction is the public definition of a bear market, but I know markets can correct 40% and 60%.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at a bit over 5.22:1 which means it takes 5.22 gold ounces to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. This 5:1 range has not changed all that much as it may be double topping as well.  One day this Gold/Nasdaq ratio will shift again where it could reach a 1:1 ratio. This still could take a few years, but until it does this market is overbought and very expensive.

If you’re not a contrarian then be prepared for the stock bulls to trample you as they run for the exits yelling,” Fire”

Nasdaq Surges To A New Record High

This morning the Nasdaq and the other indices all seemed to hit new record highs. This could still go on an on but every new record high also calls for a correction. How deep or long the next correction will be all depends on the what wave position and the degree we are presently soaring too.  Since that 2015 bottom the markets have surged in one big move that had very small corrections in it. This is producing a vertical move that even the roaring 20’s can’t match. Even the DJIA has a vertical ascent with only small corrections. Eventually all trends come to an end, as bull markets plant the seeds of their own destruction.

When the worlds analysts are constantly blasting out the bullish hype to the rest of the world, “Who are they talking to”?  Only the emotional traders are playing this game and I’m sure the protective sells stops are all starting to bunch up below present prices.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is sitting at a bit above 5:1 which means it takes 5 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA. It has been rolling around this 5:1 ratio since December 2017, so it seems to have run into a potential ceiling. When it does reverse, the Nasdaq ratio will start to compress and eventually start heading back down to a 2:1 ratio.

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

A week or so ago, they found a huge problem in most chip designs and they have been scrambling to get some type of patches out to all the operating systems.  It is important that you take all updates as soon as they come in. Apple has already updated its iPhone OS and the Mac OS, but there may be more to come. All this just adds to the breakdown of fundamentals in the tech industry.

Chinese Workers Abandon Silicon Valley for Riches Back Home – Bloomberg

This exodus out of Silicon Valley takes some American made ideas and exports them back to China. They can become millionaires much easier than in the USA.

Bitcoin Could End Up Using More Power Than Electric Cars – Bloomberg

I laughed when I read about the power consumption used in Bitcoin mining, which just goes to show that power outages can wreck havoc in the tech sector.  Any wild CME from the sun also creates power outages, so this tech world is highly susceptible, not just from hackers.

Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Update

This morning stocks surged up again, as the Nasdaq touched 6690 at its highest point. This small degree 5th wave has widely overlapping moves, that suggest another diagonal 5th wave is developing. It ended with a small spike so we will have to wait latter in the week to see if this peak holds. Sooner or later this January 5 wave sequence, has to correct.  Eventually, it should retrace the entire January rally, before another strong leg up can occur.

There isn’t that much action in the early part of the week, but I would expect things to change by Wenesday.

I have posted most of the 5 indices I cover with my largest degree wave count, and have the idealized version up as well. The bull market, we are tracking started in early 2009 and since then has been on a huge bullish phase that must also come to an end.

At this time any new record high will illicit a counter rally containing a set of 3 waves. Unless, we are ending a bigger degree phase, where stocks can move down with 5 wave patterns.  Longer term I’m very bearish even if another leg gets added on, as the smart money is not entering this stock market price bubble.

The longer the general markets take to pop, our time window to a 2021 bottom becomes shorter as well. Somewhere we would need to get a very steep drop to help speed the process up.

Stunning market declines produce equally stunning bull markets as this Nasdaq has generated about a 640% gain since the 2009 lows. Of course, if we were waiting for the Nasdaq to go much deeper in early 2009, then the bull market started without us. This was barely enough time to take a token position, never mind trying to disperse a larger net worth position that smart money has available. The EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool, that long term contrarians would never use. Big cycles are a fact of life and choosing to ignore them will be detrimental to our investment accounts.

Solar Cycles drive the business and expansion cycles on earth, and it wasn’t until solar cycle #23 ended until stocks turned and headed north again. By 2021 we should have started solar cycle #25, which will produce another 8 year bull market. Anyone caught with a bearish wave count at that time will get their wave counts shredded, leaving the surprised empty handed again as a new leg starts back up.

It matters little how bearish of a price bottom we may get by 2021 but the next big bull market will leave that Nasdaq 6690 price level in the dust.

Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Record High Update

The last part of December, 2017 we saw the Nasdaq decline, but this decline didn’t last that long once 2018 rolled around. The bulls still dominate this show, but with the wild gyrations going on we know this market is becoming unstable.  At this time we have two previous 4th wave bottoms, where we can find support. Where it stops is unknown at this time, but we also know that markets can travel well below any previous 4th wave bottom.

For any correction to have meaning, this Nasdaq must crash well below 6240. That will just barely get the Nasada bears warmed up, never mind completing a full correction.  How deep the Nasdaq bear market can, or will go, all depends on the degree level, that we are presently ending.

The Nasdaq is also coming to a Cycle degree wave 3 end, but it sure can fool us in the short term. At this intraday scale the charts can blow low degree moves very quickly as the market patterns are pretty sensitive. If all those expert wave analysts are counting the Nasdaq as a 5 wave structure in Primary degree, then they are too early by at least 2 degree levels. They will also be late in calling a bottom when it does arrive, just like what happened in early 2009.

I may not know at any specific time, as to the exact wave count I may be on, but I do have a very strong idea when I see a wave count, that it will never fit or work.

This morning the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was a bit above 5:1 which is the highest ratio I have recorded in the last year or so. One day we will kiss this 5:1 ratio goodbye, and start heading down to 2:1 again.

Mini Nasdaq 100 Bearish Phase Update.

It sure looks like the Nasdaq is leading a trend south. All the other indices are not even close to following the Nasdaq down, but they can always catch up in a hurry.

This Nasdaq bearish phase can still backfire, but there is only one full trading day left for 2017, which does not leave enough time for one more push to the moon.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has dipped below 5:1 again and this should keep on compressing as any Nasdaq bear market intensifies. When this Gold/Nasdaq ratio becomes stupid again, which could take several years or to that 2021 time period, the markets will be ready for a new bullish phase. Until that day comes all the bullish trading accounts will show a major color shift to the red!

Nasdaq Intraday Bubble Top Review

This morning after reaching another record high of 6545, the Mini Nasdaq plunged, but has now started to rally again. Any  big bearish phase should produce lower highs along its journey heading south. At this time it’s not a done deal, as we know that these markets can make violent moves to the upside as well.

Diagonal wave declines do make zigzag crashes like this as well, so until that recent world record high holds, anything can still happen in the short term. In the long run the 5 main indices I cover, will all terminate at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree. From any wave 3 top we know that we have 3 idealized possible corrective patterns, which I have been posted for many years already. We could get a big flat or zigzag, with a long drawn out triangle being the last of my choices.

I have so many idealized triangles posted for several higher degree levels, but the chances are good they will never materialize. My search for all 5 waves in Cycle degree is very important, as without them no SC and GSC degree wave counts can exist. All fundamental forecasts based on any SC or GSC degree wave positions  will never work as well.  Sure, we can get a deep recession and if you believe the fundamentalists when they are bearish, then just look back to the 1932 bottom and the huge rally that followed ending with the 1937 peak.  That bull market was a huge 5 year and 473 % gain, in one of the worst depressions in American stock market history.

Some believe this Nasdaq bull has a long way to go, due to some income tax reduction. That idea will have great difficulty in materializing from a price bubble peak. It worked for Regan, when a bull market was just starting,  but It will not work for President Trump!  The odds are much better that in the end, Donald Trump will be blamed for any crash of the stock markets. Just like 1932 or 2009, any bearish bottom towards the 2021 time period will be the breeding grounds for the next big bullish phase.

Having a very bullish wave count in sympathy with the crowd will never work, just like a super bearish wave count in sympathy with all the bears, didn’t work in 2002 and 2009.

Bitcoin Power: Nasdaq Soars To New Record Highs

Many times I can’t help it,  but to look at this insane market from a science fiction perspective.   We have a Bitcoin mining driven induced mania, that could be putting a huge strain on the demands of electrical power. Without the Nasdaq or tech industry, there would be no Cyrptos, as most of the high flying Bitcoin mining stocks are in the Nasdaq. Ask yourself, “Will these Bitcoin miner stocks keep going up while the Nasdaq crashes?” More and more stories are coming out about the huge power requirement for Crypto mining operations. It’s  getting to a point where you have to build a small nuclear reactor attached to the mining rig for power and cooling demands.  Even the demand for coal for power generation has increased.

The next thing we may read about is that, “97.5% of experts agree Bitcoin mining is the cause of global warming”. They blame the industrial revolution caused global warming, yet a Bitcoin mining revolution draws more power, than the entire industrial revolution ever used. They say that even coal demand is driven by Bitcoin mining. Coal was also used to power the industrial revolution, so what’s the difference today?

Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise – Bloomberg

How Energy Investors Are Getting In On The Bitcoin Boom | OilPrice.com

One day the grid will get overloaded,  triggered by some wild CME from the sun. Many Bitcoin mining operations would come to a grinding halt including many electric cars and trucks.

The Stunning Energy Cost Of Tesla’s Semi-Truck | OilPrice.com

When a new record high is in the making, then I look for a potential correction to materialize. Another correction in a bullish phase can’t go that deep as it would then break out through any trend lines. At a minimum the Nasdaq would have to crash below the 6250 price level, but getting there may not be that simple as this market refuses to die.

Nasdaq And Bitcoin Mania, Two Peas In A Pod

While the Nasdaq gyrates around, and investors have long forgotten the 2009 bottom, then it’s always a good time to look back to the 2009 bottom. 

 Bitcoin Wave Zero, started in July 2010 about 15 months after the Nasdaq  turned around in early 2009. It’s silly to think that this crypto mania  is special or the start of a new era. There is nothing new about it as the markets have crashed when new electronic equipment was installed. 

While there is only one Nasdaq, we can’t say that about the Crypto Mania that’s going on.  Some think there are about 1000 different cryptocurrencies in the process of being created. Shit, that’s far more varieties of cryptocurrencies  than there ever was in different types of Tulips!

We are in a tech driven world, but so was the dotcom boom in 2000.  My bet is that once the Nasdaq starts to turn into a bear market, then Bitcoin will follow right along with it.  A  little 25%,  Nasdaq flash crash will not do it, nor will a 60% retracement do it!  We are going into a bear market that very few investors know that’s coming.

When all the experts are painting you a rosy bull market picture of the future, then “Who is left to get in”?  Like Rick Rules says, “Don’t confuse a bull market with brains”! Only emotional people buy in at the top, and they will run as fast as they can once the markets and Bicoin start to head south again. 

Yes, the pattern from 2000-2009 is ugly, but we know where the 4th wave bottom in Primary degree ended. The 5 waves up in the Nasdaq look like the closest to a well formed impulse that you can find. Many smart contrarians know this market is heading down, but we will never know exactly where it will find the real bottom. If I say the Nasdaq will eventually land at 1300, it will go to 1200 just to prove me wrong. 

Nasdaq can rocket to 8,000 and beyond, says Bank of America analyst – MarketWatch

                                                         This news link is a prime example, how bullish experts are at stock market peaks.

Mini Nasdaq 100: Still Heading South!

It seems that  the Nasdaq is still heading south with the final peak about the last day of the month. The markets also turned south on a full moon, which is supposed to be very bullish for stocks. Most of the time all moon cycles do,  is provide a potential turning point. The Nasdaq  did not follow the other indices to new record highs, but has been heading down since the end of the month. 

Yes, I would like to see more 5 wave sequences develop, but I started with a potential diagonal. The “A, B, ” I show can also work as an impulse, but I would like to see more before we will know with a higher degree of confidence. The further south the Nasdaq goes the less of a chance it will be, for the Nasdaq to push for a new record high. 

6430 seems to be the number to beat which also establish a new record Gold/Nasdaq ratio of 5:1 It now takes 5 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nasdaq. That is a huge difference from the days when the Nasdaq was the cheapest at the March 2009 lows of 1.18:1.  It may never reach this extreme ratio again, but we may see closer to 2 or 3:1 again. Just like the other indices,  I’m expecting a Cycle degree correction, which the majority will end up calling a bear market.  By the time the analysts figure out that we are in a bear market or recession, it will be getting close to finishing. 

The majority always wins in a bull market, but in a bear market the majority will always be left holding worthless paper. They don’t take the time and effort to capture the paper gains, like the seasoned contrarians do. In this world you’re either a contrarian or you become a victim of the stampeding mob! Many realize that a top is near, but they think they run for the exits before the mob gets to the door. Good luck with that,  as that has never worked at any major peak in the last hundred years. 

A SC degree correction from 1929-1932 only took three years, so there is no logic in calling for a 600 year bear market, especially if we ignore all solar cycles.  Wave analysts ignored solar cycle #24 in 2009,  and they will ignore when solar cycle #25 starts in 2021. 

The 2009 bottom has a much higher bottom in 2009 so at this time I don’t think that, that price level will ever get hit. Below 2011 lows is my target at this time, which gives us a range between Nasdaq 1000 and 2000.  

Nasdaq Intraday Crash update

Still having chart data problems, but sometimes a chart will show up. In this case it was the Nasdaq as it took the biggest decline when compared to others.  Any previous low can supply temporary support, but it will not tell you if temporary support is just a simple correction in a bull market. 

Even though this was a great move down, we need more evidence that any new trend is sustainable. In other words the Nasdaq has to fall off the cliff, and disappear below all October lows.  We need this just to see if we can establish some decent set of impulse waves. When the markets want to go higher, then sideways choppy patterns should start to happen.  In the end, it’s all about where we start our wave counts from and our perception of what an idealized chart should look like. 

The younger speculators have no clue on what’s coming, as many think this is a generational bull market that will never end.  When players that speculate with Bitcoin are 34 years and younger, why would any investor want to sell the Nasdaq at record highs?

Bull market peaks are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and it matters little what or if,  any fundamental news turns out to be the trigger. 

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Quadruple Record High

Since my last update, the Nasdaq managed to push higher, but only by about 11 points. 6425 seems to be the number to beat at this time.  We also have a very small degree quadruple top, which can work like a small diagonal 5th wave., or another ending diagonal.

On other indices, this exact same impulse did not happen, and a diagonal wave must be used. This has happened many times before, but at this small scale nobody will notice or even care. 

What it can mean is another potential correction is coming, but how big of a correction is uncertain at this time.  This market has dipped many times before, so we need a substantial correction, for the markets to not have enough time to make another record high in 2017. 

That point of no return may be at the 6000 price level, which is off the charts above.   The previous little 4th wave just will not be deep enough to make a difference. 

The SP500 is pushing higher, so it would not surprise me if the Nasdaq added on another record peak. 

Nasdaq Intraday Correction Update

So far the Nasdaq  correction seems to be happening, or lets say anticipated correction. Its not a correction until the Nasdaq pushes higher one more time. This may happen by mid week.  Of course, if the 3 wave rally is all that we are going to get, then a triangle “D” wave could still play out.  I will keep this short as there is not that much I can add until this short term move gets cleared up. 

Nasdaq Intraday New World Record!

Here we go again as the Nasdaq seems to be the leader as it crossed to new world record highs. All the other indices seemed to be lagging in their quest to add another record high. Next week could be critical as we are approaching the new moon this Saturday. There is a chance we may not get the 4th and 5th wave if the present pattern is just an extended single zigzag.  The 20th of the month can also produce violent reversals, due to expiration dates of options.  Of course we never really know what the sensitive, emotional investor will do.  There can be more fundamental reasons than degree levels we have in the EWP, why markets go up or down. Frankly, markets  have a bad habit of ignoring fundamentals, which is very easy to confirm when we look at the 30’s depression and the 2009 bottom.

As long this Nasdaq refuses to die, there is no chance of Cycle degree wave 3 finding a permanent home.  

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Update

The Nasdaq has already started to rally, which could mean that a correction has already ended. The entire move from the top down, can fit as a zigzag with this mornings bottom. What else is new! I can’t completely rule out further downside as a bigger bearish diagonal move can also still be in play. It may take until the end of the month before we know for sure, but a violent move sure can shorten the time it will take.

My expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio was about 4:1 and a week ago we were at 4.94:1. This means a new record extreme where it now takes 4.94 gold ounces, to buy just one unit of the Mini Nasdaq.

Nasdaq, Another Record High

Our last record high in the Nasdaq 100 was 6350. After one day this record is still holding but jumping up and down anticipating a bigger correction may be a bit mature.  OMG, What else is new!   There could still be a  bullish zigzag left to go, and the only way that may not happen is if the Nasdaq keeps heading south.  On the chart above, we have about 4 potential patterns where the Nasdaq could stop, price wise. I’m not looking for a short term temporary bottom if  a Cycle degree wave 3 has completed.  Nobody can guess any Fibonacci retracement level, because we all have different wave counts.  At what price level is the Nasdaq bear market going to halt at, followed by an 8 year bull market?  Nobody will know for sure as everybody will have a different idea, of the degree level we are at in the first place. 

I assure you they are manipulating us to think in Supercycle or Grand Supercycle degree levels. The more fear they can manipulate us with, the more books they can sell.  This bullish phase has frustrated many of the early bears, and at this rate, we have to wait until the Nasdaq corrects well below the chart I have posted. 

The 2008 crash barely lasted a year, and that was a Primary Degree correction, so why should the next correction suddenly take decades or longer to play out. The last SC degree crash and bear market that followed, only took 3 years to complete.  Any Cycle degree correction could also take about 3 or 4 years, then that would be pretty normal from my perspective.  Right now the Nasdaq is still struggling at this small degree level, and we may know more by the end of the day. 

Mini Nasdaq Weekly Chart 2009-2017 Bull Market Review

This morning the Nasdaq hit another record high of 6334 but may still add on more points before another correction is due. One trend line is all we need as two of them will not fit well.  Look at the angle of the bull market, and how it cuts very close to a 45 degree angle, or corner to corner.  How long this market can keep gyrating without a major correction is uncertain at this time, but markets do have a knack of fooling us with surprise moves.  I like to catch as many of the surprise moves that I can but it doesn’t always work that way. 

From my perspective, I have a clear vision of a single idealized wave count, and I use this idealized picture as my reference point, for all the different simple corrections that we may find. Most of all it is important to eliminate 2 of the corrective waves, but also to get the highest degree of this correction.  This helps in keeping all wave positions within Cycle degree, so we don’t  end up with the  SC or GSC degree forecast. Unless all Cycle degree peaks are found we can’t move forward into the next highest degree. 

The Nasdaq is about the best forming impulse wave, when compared to the others, but any 5th wave can be very choppy due to diagonal wave structures.  In 2016 we did have an expanded “B” wave top pattern, and it did not let us down as another leg up materialized.

Then from 2016,  the bull market started to go crazy which works best with extending the last 5th wave in Minor degree. It makes wave 1 and wave 5 about even, with wave 3 still being the longest and the extended wave. 

Harry Dent, who is just a book writer says the DOW will fall to 5000. When we actually go look we can see there is nothing down there, but it would take us back to 1996 price levels.  1996 coincides with the end of solar cycle#22 and the start of solar cycle #23, which just kept the bull market going. 

Now if the Nasdaq were to fall along with the DJIA then the Nasdaq could fall to 600-700. Again, there is nothing down at the 1996 price level to support anything,  so I know those numbers are arbitrary numbers,  picked out of thin air. Manipulating the masses with fear is very normal as it sells books. 

All this can take the next 3-4 years to play out and to surprise us again, the Nasdaq could stop well short of the 2009 bottom, before a brand new bull market starts with the start of solar cycle #25. 

I checked the Gold/Nasdaq ratio and it was 4.94. It took 4.94 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, which is the most expensive ratio I have recorded in the last few years. The record expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have,  is about 4.  To get real cheap this ratio would have to get closer to 1.18 again. 

November, 1, 2017 Nasdaq Another Record High Review

This morning, even the Nasdaq joined in, establishing another world record high. This time we topped at the 6284 price level before it started to reverse.   Not having double or even triple tops, sure helps in finding a location to start from. This still doesn’t rule out any small degree expanded pattern that may be lurking in this pattern, but if that is the case then a floor on the price level must happen.  This could happen at the 6200 price level or a bit lower, but it can’t retrace all of the October rally.

Today is the first day of a new month and stocks all seemed to have reacted at the same time. It doesn’t always happen so exact, but it’s about as close to the end of the month we can get. 

As I post the markets are still heading down, but there is no sense in arriving at conclusions too early. I just looked at the Nasdaq from the 2000 peak, and without a doubt the Nasdaq is walking to a different drummer. I will stand by my perspective that a Cycle degree wave 3 peak will eventually form, which would synchronize the Nasdaq with the DJIA and SP500 much better than it ever has. How long that will last is anyones guess, as the Nasdaq may never break any new record lows below that 2009 bottom. 

The biggest bull market since the depression eventually will come to an end, and all we can do is track every new record high. 

All bottom gaps in the VIX have been closed off with $9.80 being our present base. 

In the long run the Nasdaq should also develop a Cycle degree bottom, but in the short term we need a bit more clarity than what we’ve been getting. 

Nasdaq Hits Another Record Intraday High!

We can now add 6250 as another new world record high to the Nasdaq long streak. It just keeps going and going just like the Energizer Bunny in commercials. 

Yes, there could be another record high, but each new high is also the time for another correction.  It looks like five waves have formed, but a long zigzag will also work at this time.   So many times, a decline has started after which it soared again that it is better to be cautious, than calling for an imminent crash. 

I will not be a happy camper until at least the October low is completely retraced.  Many turnings can happen at the end of the month as well, so late this week we may know more.

 Stock Market Optimism Approaches Days of Roman Empire | Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International also sees the very bullish mood which they compare to the heights of  the Roman Empire. I will not go that far as the degrees are very different. It suggests that EWI is thinking about any top higher than SC degree. I firmly believe that we are closer to a Cycle degree wave 3 top than any other degree we can come up with.

Once again, I’m sure any higher degree wave count will not give them a price bottom and they will miss the start to another major bull market. Any wave analyst that starts a wave count of 5 waves in Primary degree will be wrong, just like they were in the 2008-2009 market bottom.

Everybody loves stocks right now, which is a complete reversal from the bearish mood the majority had in 2009. It has now taken well over 8 years, but we are also at a 10 year peak to peak record high with all the other indexes except for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has major different tops which may be due to the fact that an invisible expanded top may have happened in 2000. 

Stocks have become more synchronized with each other so that makes for a good case for a worldwide stock decline.

This is a chart of the 6 biggest stock markets in the USA where 6 charts are used. Any major Cycle degree decline could push charts well below the 2011 lows. 

Any big bearish phase may last until the 2021 time period when sc#25 starts to crank up again. 


Nasdaq Intraday New Record High: Going For The Moon!

Once again the Nasdaq soars to a new world record high. This morning the Nasdaq peaked at 6180 before it started to correct again. As we can see the Nasdaq has gone, “Vertical”  this morning.  These moves can never be maintained for very long, as a vertical move also represents speed. Besides that we have a 3 wave rally that has been pushed to new record highs.  It’s not 5 waves until waves 3-4-5 show up, and push it much higher one more time. 

Diagonal waves behave just like this so we have to wait it out to see if a 4th wave is going to form. Even bad trend lines will not help us very much as any 4th wave may find support at the 6120 price level.  We have about 3 trading sessions before the end of the month, so this market could still fool around by trying to go higher. If the last move is part of a zigzag, then a complete retracement can happen.

Do you think a bunch of traders were clicking “Buy Orders” this morning because they all reacted to some news all at the same time. Logic does not make the stock market go up and down, as raw emotions do. Even with computer trading and robot algorithms running the show, humans will interfere and usually screw things up. 

Besides a few scary intraday crashes, nothing became of  the 30 year 1987 crash anniversary date. Maybe Halloween will scare investors again, but it’s a pretty scary thought,  if this drags out until 2018.  What we are witnessing is a tech mania that can only end badly. The talking heads will use every excuse under the sun to ignore the fundamentals, and keep reminding us there is nothing to fear as we are in a secular bull market with many years left to go.

I doubt that can happen as insiders have left the “Building” in May of 2017. Only the emotional traders are left in this market, and they could be trapped, because they all can’t get out at the same time.   

Nasdaq Crash Review

After an over night plunge the markets are heading back up as I post. Most of the time the Nasdaq can provide alternate wave counts, and in this case there are no double or triple tops that  we have to content with.  Markets are put on this earth to fool the majority as much as they can, as we know it is mathematically impossible for the majority to get rich.  Paper wealth is not real money as I’m sure a few billion went up in electronic smoke this morning.

I will keep the updates a bit short this morning as the counter rally has been very strong. Until this market keeps pushing south, we are not certain of any wave count we may come up with. Either way it’s a 1987 30 year cycle,  stock market reaction. Don’t get too wrapped up about this 30 year anniversary date, as markets are always changing. Also, there are many controls built into the markets where they would halt trading if panic ensues.