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Category Archives: INDICES

Mini DJIA Intraday Double Top Review

Yesterday morning the DJIA produced another record high of 26,149, after which the mini started a decline. From the beginning of January we’ve had a single move containing 5 waves in Subminuette degree. Subminuette degree is 4 degree levels above the rocky bottom of my degree list, which I cut off at Miniscule degree.   Not using a lower set of degree levels helps to judge potential extensions, and keeps me from wandering into a higher degree, before its time.

Recently the Mini DJIA topped at 26,149 with a square looking top that. I’m not jumping up and down with joy at the thoughts of a small double or even triple top wave structure. It’s the nature of the beast and I have to use several different wave peaks to count from.

It sure would be nice if the DJIA doesn’t break another world record, which the analysts are so good at counting and reporting back to the mainstream.  All I can say is, “Enough already” as we can only listen to the constant squawking parrots for so long.  “Who are all these analysts broadcasting to”? Day in and day out they broadcast to the world looking for the secret group to invest in these markets at record highs.

In reality, there is no secret group, as they are called, ” Retail investors”  which always buy in at the top.  There is something about this group that has bought in at every record high since the 2000 peak.

FUND FLOWS: Concerns Over Frothy Markets Not Stopping Investors

Doing the same thing as the herd will get you the same results as what they are going to get. The, “High Buying” retail crowd, doesn’t have the stomach and the account “headroom”,  (net cash),  to survive even a medium correction, nevermind a Cycle degree correction.  All the DJIA Titanic has to do is list to its side and the retail investor will start to panic and pull monies out again. The professional contrarian and insiders are long gone, this market, only the emotional investors are left to jump in.

In the last 17 years, investors have learned nothing about buying low and selling high as no amount of broadcasting has taught them anything.  Constantly trying to forecast how much higher this market can go, is all Smoke and Mirrors. They have no clue how deep a Cycle degree bear market can go down to but when it does, these same experts will claim how much deeper the markets can crash.

I’m very bearish on all the 5 main stock market indexes, that I cover, but we may have to put up with these intraday gyrations for a bit longer.

At a very minimum the entire Trump rally will get completely wiped out which may only be an Intermediate degree correction, nevermind the Cycle degree correction that we are supposed to get.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

The SP500 is now developing a small degree double top which I can fit into a diagonal 5th wave.  Even now another spike to the upside can still happen.  A correction is coming and it will be bigger than the majority are expecting.  The “Market Gremlin” will raise a shit storm in the next few years as a financial earthquake is coming.  All those pretty “Green”  numbers in a bull market,  turn to “Red” in a bear market.  If you think that a few $300-$400 billion going up in smoke in the Cryptos is a big deal then, you haven’t seen nothing yet as $20-$30 trillion will go up in smoke once the markets hit the “Real” bottom.

Just for starters the entire 2018 rally has to get retraced, followed by retracing the entire Trump rally as well. Two years worth of gains will disappear in a blink of an eye, so don’t fall asleep being complacent with the majority. Investing with the majority will get you the same results as the majority get when the “Big Bear”comes a knocking. The real bears are not going to be so nice, as there will be no knock as they will just smash through the front door.

In this world you are a contrarian or you become the victim, so you do have a choice.

SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday the markets suffered a min type of a crash. It is also a move I like to see coming off another major peak. Due to its sharp decline, there is still the potential left for the markets to charge higher.  All of the January 2018 rally would have to get completely retraced just for openers,  followed by  retracing the entire December bull market as well.  We have to get a decline big enough for the markets to no longer have the time to create a new 2018 record high.

So far we topped off at the 2808 price peak and remains the number to beat in the near term future.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is well into the extreme side, sitting a bit over 2:1 this morning.

Mini DJIA Record High Update

In the last day the DJIA charged up and then instantly reversed heading south. So far we have another world record peak at 26,061 but we have to be aware that it also can still make another mad dash to the upside. In order for the markets being over on the bearish side already, we can keep on getting new record highs. Every new record high can be the last record high, which could mean that the 26,061 price level will end up being the last high of 2018. The VIX has also spiked to newer highs with many gaps opening as well.

Fear is starting to reverberate through the bullish ranks, but this must continue once the markets hit a brick wall.  We need some good looking 5 wave declines  to form,  as 5 wave sequences are the pointers to a new bigger and longer trend.

In the bigger scope of things I’m very bearish even if we get another record high. Not until the majority, (more than 80%), of my contrarian indicators show up, will I turn bullish.

Quick Look At The VIX

Today the stock markets took a big hit, and the VIX soared. The VIX is in a vertical position right now, which usually precedes a correction or a reversal. Once we check the top trend line on the daily VIX chart, we can see that the VIX is pointing to the $14-$15 price range where strong resistance can come from.

We also have two open gaps well below todays VIX prices. It doesn’t necessarily mean that these two gaps, have to get filled on the next trip down, but there is a good chance that the $10.20 gap could get filled.  Any short small correction could happen, then this bullish phase will develop another leg up.

The commercials have had net long positions for a long time while those speculators have been betting on much lower VIX lows.  I’m sure you will read other analysts that report the trader’s positions, but they always tell you what the speculators are doing. The commercials were on the right side while the speculators got themselves into a bear trap! Following a group of traders that consistently trap themselves is not exactly my idea of the smart thing to do.

When the commercials become net short again, then I can see a big reversal with the VIX.

Mini SP500 New World Records!

I normally take a break on any US or Canadian holiday, but occasionally I will break that rule. Soon we will be starting in the third year of a single 5th wave in Intermediate degree. At this time the markets show no signs that they want to slow down, but reversals can happen coming as a complete surprise to the majority.

We can’t have our noses stuck in the intraday level as we always have to look at daily and weekly charts on a regular basis. At the monthly chart scale we are dealing with a vertical move, where we can barely see any of the corrections above. On faster moves we can’t see any corrections on the bigger scale. Extensions happen all the time as they are a fact we can’t deny. Just because we have a single tall 5th wave, doesn’t mean we are jumping into higher degree levels.

We are still in the running to a Cycle degree wave 3 top, so until that happens, I will remain extremely bearish.

Tomorrow will be a new moon date, which can produce amazing reversals, when they feel like it. It could still take until the end of the month for this to play out, but I look at mid week times as potential turnings as well. The longer and higher this goes, just means it has much deeper to fall when the next bear market arrives.

Crude oil may crash along with the stock market, so we have to be aware of that potential situation as well.

Today the Gold/SP500 ratio is still around 2:1,  which it has been for 3 months. When a ratio is at an extreme and it seems to be stuck there, then I look at it as a warning for a major double top in the Gold/Sp500 ratio. In the end, we want to use less gold to buy a single unit of the SP500, which is close to,  (.75:1) Not until we get close to this cheap ratio again will the markets become oversold again.

Here’s what could trigger a 30% stock-market melt-up, says investor Bill Miller – MarketWatch

The markets breaking all these record highs are starting to bore me to no end! 🙄  Enough already! It sounds like the market analysts are stuck on repeat, or they are getting creative in calling for another melt-up.  It’s amazing how they can call higher and higher bull market targets when they didn’t even see the bull market coming back in 2009.

The higher calls mean nothing in the big picture as nobody knows what the markets will correct down to once those targets have been hit. Nobody is saying, ” Oh BTW, once SP500 reaches 2800, then expect a correction to 700″! Identifying bull and bear markets “after” they have turned means nothing in the big picture as the herd is always late getting in and late getting out.

Forecasting big price moves means the fundamentals are going to change as well. This is why, “fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

I’m sure that at the next bear market low, we will see dramatically different fundamental news come out, and I will be very surprised if we are not in a recession as well. I mean a recession, not a depression!  When all the analysts are in consensus agreement that a recession has arrived, it will be over. A new bull market will start again and eventually move 500%, not this boring 400% 5th wave move, we are presently in.

Solar Cycle #24 And DJIA 1975-2018 Elliott Wave Review

The sunspot number has now been updated to the December end of 2017. The majority couldn’t care less about any influences our sun has on the stock markets back here on earth. Many have researched this connection, as I have done for the last 20 years. Each black dot is a month end calculation of sunspot activity.

We had two major peaks in sunspot activity, one correlated well with the 2011 gold peak and the January 2014 peak coincided before my wave 3  in Intermediate degree ended.  The 2002-2008 sunspot count starting to decline, but the markets loved it at least until 2007.

It may still take a full 3 years until sc#24 ends, and when sc#25 starts from this 2021 time frame, then the markets should follow suite.  Many times the markets experience great upheaval just a year or so before the solar cycle hits a bottom. With the Fed change coming this February, there is usually some upheaval in the markets as well, especially if the markets have already crossed over to the bearish side.  In the end sc#24 produced the biggest bull market since the depression, lasting well over 8 years now.

In the next 2-3 years the stock bears can do a lot of damage, but once 2021 rolls around and the sunspot polarity has started to flip, then we had better look for a brand new bull market to start. If you think investors are any smarter today than what they were with the 2000 or 2007 peaks, then you are sadly mistaken. The average majority will never learn that the “majority” can’t win at this game of accumulating wealth.

The sad part about the solar cycles is that even the wave analysts ignore them, as in March of 2009 they still had very bearish wave counts still to be completed.  Yet the markets turned up in 2009 and never looked back as the bearish wave counting herd were caught in a bear trap. When we are caught in any type of a trap we are ill prepared for what comes next. The markets were already showing signs of an impending reversal in late 2008.

 

I just love to show readers the linear version of the DOW as the bullish phase from the 2016 bottom to our present top is one of the most vertical moves I have ever  tried to count. I show 2 sets of 5 wave sequences in Intermediate degree, with no other degree levels labeled. I use no other indicators or prices, and I spew out little or no fundamental reasoning when markets go up or down. Markets will always act in such a fashion to never let the majority win. Sure, during any bull market it is perceived that the majority are winning, but that is only wealth on paper. During a big bear market, all this paper wealth starts to disappear and years of bullish progress go up in smoke.

The first set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree,  are much bigger physical moves. The 2015-2016 bearish phase contained a much smaller intermediate degree 4th wave. There is nothing wrong with that as there is a one degree difference between the two 5 wave sets. There are 2 sets of wave 3 positions not labeled which is deliberate, so it will force any wave analysts to scratch this time, wondering what is supposed to be between the 2 sets of 5 waves.

This market has soared since the 2016 bottom, but it also shows next to no corrections from a monthly chart perspective.  This is a bad omen in the bigger scope of things, as the markets do correct back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  The DOW 15,000 price level is a previous 4th wave alright, but it’s the previous 4th wave of a Primary degree that a Cycle degree has to correct down to.

In 2009 the markets went a bit lower than the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which has no real meaning or future implications at this time. Many 4th waves travel below previous 4th waves of one lesser degree. Besides the markets have a tendency to fool the majority of participants and so to piss off all the mega bears, the markets will “not”  go below the 2009 lows again.  They could  turn earlier than expected, and start to soar. You can thank solar cycle #25 for the next big bull market, as those investors that follow or believe in the “grand” or “super” theory will be left empty handed again.

I see this as a massive missed opportunity, which makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient,  if we keep on missing major bull markets. As long as wave analysts are happy painting mindless numbers and letters on the charts, then they will never enjoy catching a 5 or 8 year bull moves when they do come.

Every failed wave count must be followed by a serious look at the “entire” wave structure. A minimum of two higher degree levels than the failed wave degree must be initiated instantly.  In 2009 Primary degree wave 1 failed so the “ENTIRE” 5 wave sequence in Supercycle degree must be counted again. Modern wave analysts have refused to do this as it’s just too much like work. If you spend your time looking at many other wave counts, virtually every wave position today is still spewing out SC and GSC degree wave counts.

For the last 5 years I have shifted to Cycle degree wave analysis. Until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, “NO” SC or GSC degree wave counts can find a base.

Impending Access Change Notice.

I plan on eliminating all aspects of membership categories by the end of January.  The goal is to make my site open to all visitors.  

I may start this by deleting the Free User Membership login option first. Nobody should lose their free access if things go well. All the PayPal donation links will remain for those that want to help pay for any costs of running this blog.

You can also donate via Goldmoney using my main email address.

 The World’s Most Trusted Name in Precious Metals – Goldmoney

Once this is completed and you still find links up that block your access, then I will try and find the problem, and fix it.   

By May 2018, I will be starting the third year publishing on this blog. This could coincide very well with an all time record high of 500,000 pages being viewed.

Nasdaq Surges To A New Record High

This morning the Nasdaq and the other indices all seemed to hit new record highs. This could still go on an on but every new record high also calls for a correction. How deep or long the next correction will be all depends on the what wave position and the degree we are presently soaring too.  Since that 2015 bottom the markets have surged in one big move that had very small corrections in it. This is producing a vertical move that even the roaring 20’s can’t match. Even the DJIA has a vertical ascent with only small corrections. Eventually all trends come to an end, as bull markets plant the seeds of their own destruction.

When the worlds analysts are constantly blasting out the bullish hype to the rest of the world, “Who are they talking to”?  Only the emotional traders are playing this game and I’m sure the protective sells stops are all starting to bunch up below present prices.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is sitting at a bit above 5:1 which means it takes 5 Troy gold ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA. It has been rolling around this 5:1 ratio since December 2017, so it seems to have run into a potential ceiling. When it does reverse, the Nasdaq ratio will start to compress and eventually start heading back down to a 2:1 ratio.

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

A week or so ago, they found a huge problem in most chip designs and they have been scrambling to get some type of patches out to all the operating systems.  It is important that you take all updates as soon as they come in. Apple has already updated its iPhone OS and the Mac OS, but there may be more to come. All this just adds to the breakdown of fundamentals in the tech industry.

Chinese Workers Abandon Silicon Valley for Riches Back Home – Bloomberg

This exodus out of Silicon Valley takes some American made ideas and exports them back to China. They can become millionaires much easier than in the USA.

Bitcoin Could End Up Using More Power Than Electric Cars – Bloomberg

I laughed when I read about the power consumption used in Bitcoin mining, which just goes to show that power outages can wreck havoc in the tech sector.  Any wild CME from the sun also creates power outages, so this tech world is highly susceptible, not just from hackers.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update

Yesterday this SP500 also peaked at 2760, after which it plunged in price and has now experienced a mini rally. Just like any other potential peak, we need a set of 5 waves in the impending decline, as 5 wave sequences point the way to a bigger trend move. Even on flat corrections we could get a smaller zigzag correction first, and a zigzag has two 5 wave sequences in it.  When the markets are pointing up and the mass media paint us a very rosy picture, they there are not too many players left to jump in.

Any decline will happen in stages, as the last thing we will get is some big 1987 one day super crash. Since 1987 many new circuit breakers have been  installed. Sure, big down days will happen once they see there is no more hope for this bull market. I will remain bearish for the foreseeable future,  until the majority joins us with their bearish mood. When that happens the markets will turn and soar once again. Any bull market top is also planting the seeds for its own destruction, as all the greatest fools are in, convinced that they can find another sucker down the road. As the media spends time looking for those suckers down the road, it may turn out that the fingers are pointing back at themselves.

Mini DJIA Record High Bull Trap Update

This Mini DJIA contract reached a peak of 25,414 yesterday, followed by a wild counter rally that also looks like a counter rally. It may take the rest of the week to clear up, but if this counter rally is over on the bearish side already, then no new record highs should happen.  One main reason is due to the many extensions we have had, but also another main reason is that we are in a much higher degree level than the 2000 and 2007 peaks were. Even a normal correction would retrace this entire small degree 5th wave before the next leg up can occur.

Any bigger correction will have no problem in trashing the 24,650 price level. Any previous bull market low can provide limited support, but eventually we need to end up with a 3 wave Primary degree correction that would send the markets into a very deep bear market. Markets always tend to head back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, and sometimes they even go “under” the previous 4th wave. In this case the previous 4th wave bottom would be the 6500 price level. That 2009 crash bottom went well below the previous 4th wave in Intermediate degree, so technically the markets could do the same thing again.

Markets do have a twisted knack of fooling all the players and non players alike, so just to frustrate us this time around,  the 4th wave will “not” dip below 2009 levels. 😉 Even if it does, it will mean nothing in the big scope of things.

The Gold/DJIA ratio is just a bit above 19:1 where it’s been for over a month already. It takes 19 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the DJIA, and it’s  the highest expensive ratio I have on record.

Nasdaq Intraday New Record High Update

This morning stocks surged up again, as the Nasdaq touched 6690 at its highest point. This small degree 5th wave has widely overlapping moves, that suggest another diagonal 5th wave is developing. It ended with a small spike so we will have to wait latter in the week to see if this peak holds. Sooner or later this January 5 wave sequence, has to correct.  Eventually, it should retrace the entire January rally, before another strong leg up can occur.

There isn’t that much action in the early part of the week, but I would expect things to change by Wenesday.

I have posted most of the 5 indices I cover with my largest degree wave count, and have the idealized version up as well. The bull market, we are tracking started in early 2009 and since then has been on a huge bullish phase that must also come to an end.

At this time any new record high will illicit a counter rally containing a set of 3 waves. Unless, we are ending a bigger degree phase, where stocks can move down with 5 wave patterns.  Longer term I’m very bearish even if another leg gets added on, as the smart money is not entering this stock market price bubble.

The longer the general markets take to pop, our time window to a 2021 bottom becomes shorter as well. Somewhere we would need to get a very steep drop to help speed the process up.

Stunning market declines produce equally stunning bull markets as this Nasdaq has generated about a 640% gain since the 2009 lows. Of course, if we were waiting for the Nasdaq to go much deeper in early 2009, then the bull market started without us. This was barely enough time to take a token position, never mind trying to disperse a larger net worth position that smart money has available. The EWP has turned into a short term trade setup tool, that long term contrarians would never use. Big cycles are a fact of life and choosing to ignore them will be detrimental to our investment accounts.

Solar Cycles drive the business and expansion cycles on earth, and it wasn’t until solar cycle #23 ended until stocks turned and headed north again. By 2021 we should have started solar cycle #25, which will produce another 8 year bull market. Anyone caught with a bearish wave count at that time will get their wave counts shredded, leaving the surprised empty handed again as a new leg starts back up.

It matters little how bearish of a price bottom we may get by 2021 but the next big bull market will leave that Nasdaq 6690 price level in the dust.

S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEX) Update

This TSX chart represents our main Canadian stock index. In the last few weeks and filled with bullish fundamental news flashes, this market has gone virtually nowhere, struggling trying to go higher. The bull market since the 2009 bottom can’t work as an impulse, but fits the pattern of a diagonal 5th wave pretty well.

Wave 4 crashed well into the previous wave 2 position, which has come close to its maximum retracement level. I haven’t developed good large degree wave positions this time,  as the 2009-2018 bullish phase could be a “B” wave triangle top! That could only happen if the 2007 peak was an expanded pattern. The TSX contains a wide spectrum of different sectors, so it’s wave count is going to be elusive.

Our main index is not going to go through a USA stock bear market, where we can expect our stock market to not be influenced by what is happening south of the border. TSX 11,000 and 7500,  are going to be two major support levels that could get retraced, but just getting past the 11,000 price level will be an achievement.

It’s not my top priority to keep detailed wave counts of our TSX index, but I will try and catch some of the bigger degree turns.

E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Index Bull Market Review

This is the cash, futures price chart, expanded to a weekly chart with 1500 bars. I kept the wave count fairly simple, but the most important question is, “what degree and pattern is our present bull market”?  Starting back at the peak of 2000, we had a sideways, and then a fast down move which is a flat. From late 2002 to 2007, the markets gave us another bullish phase lasting close to 5 years.

By mid 2007 this market was ready to implode, and sure enough the world was embroiled in a financial crisis, which it’s still trying to recover from today. I have the early 2009-2018 bullish phase as 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, terminating at a 5th wave in Primary degree.

If this 2009-2018 rally suddenly becomes a 5 wave set in Primary degree, then anyone with this wave count has transported themselves into the future a long time ago. One simple large degree being in the wrong place, can move us around in time by 100-200 years.

Moving wave positions around with no respect for the sequential math involved, is the fault of consensus analytics, it’s not the failure of the EWP.

If our wave counts cause us to miss complete bull markets, then it’s “high time” to throw out our original premises and start again.  The general guideline I use is, “if a Primary degree 5 wave set fails in any direction, then at a very minimum, you have to completely recount all wave structures going back two higher degree levels”.

A Primary degree failure must force us to review all past SC, and Cycle degree positions. Any kid with a hacked EWP book can baffle us with the mindless use of numbers and letters. What good does trying to count all the mini, mini, micro mini wave structures, if we end up missing an entire 8 year bull market? Sure, I count the small intraday wave structures, but I do that with my finger pointed at the screen or from a printout.

In the next 2-3 years, it will be important to recognize a large “ABC” pattern when it starts to finish, as after this “ABC” pattern has completed, another 8 year bull market would be ready to rise from the ashes again. Below the 2011 low of 400, is the minimum retracement that we would need. More downside than that is not a problem for any impending bear market. I like to be specific in what I must have or must get, so it becomes easier to notice early when we are wrong.

Russell 2000, 2000-2018 Update And The Impending Bear Market

As the world is hypnotized by the biased news coverage of the Nasdaq, DOW and the SP500, not very many wave analysts think the Russell 2000 is important. It’s important because of that big triple bottom base just below the 350 price level. Since 1998 all three bottoms were built on 4th wave bases. This is a huge base which has implications of providing the landing spot for another 4th wave bottom, but in Cycle degree. When the time comes, I’m sure the mass media will try and distract us all, by creating super bearish forecasts in the other indexes that I cover.

The Russell 2000 is not going to go to zero, and the Russell 2000 might be one of the indices that will show its bottom first. Since the 2002 bottom the next  bottom has increased by one degree. After 2032 we could be at a Supercycle degree 4th wave bottom.

Even if the Russell 2000 goes deeper than anticipated, it will not change any big wave count or degree labeling I presently have. Price is not the dominate factor in forecasting, but the pattern is. The Russell 2000 could land at 400, 350 or even reach the 300 price level, but it will not change the sequential degree levels one bit.

All the analysts are forecasting rosy fundamentals in support for higher prices yet to come. Ok, but who are all these bullish forecasters preaching to, which haven’t  heard about this bull market?  They are talking in a building that is full of average Joe investors already which means there is nobody left to come in!  Only the retail sector of investors is jumping in, but historically they always get in at record highs.

The professional contrarians have already, “left the building “, but analysts call this “profit taking”, justifying the continuation of this bull market. They will use any type of  an excuse, and twist everything to justify the reasoning for this market to keep going higher.

All of the 5 major indices that I cover have been in world record price territories, never before seen in financial history. It will not miraculously correct 20% in just a few months, and then carry on with a new leg to the upside, it could still take 2-3 years. From 1929-1932 it took 3 years to play out a SC degree correction, so a Cycle degree correction, will not take a generation or decades to play out.

Nasdaq Rocket To The Moon!

I was compelled to post the Nasdaq again. The start of 2018 sure came in the a bang, or should I say the roar of a Falcon Heavy blasting off. I will use the December 2017 decline as a triangle as they seem to be pretty rare in financial history.  What a triangle tells me is that once the “thrust” is finished, I must also look for a higher degree.  We have no shortage of higher degrees to pick from as I could stack at least three more degree levels at this impending top.

This market needs a much bigger correction than what the majority thinks we are going to get. Being brainwashed by the 20% bear market guideline is a joke, when you look at the 2000-2002 Nasdaq crash.  A 20% correction would do nothing for all the fundamentals to re-adjust. From the early 2009 bottom, the Nasdaq soared with many corrections along the way. It wasn’t until the 2011 bottom that the markets switched into “Stock Mania Mode”.  Gold crashed, stocks and the US dollar soared.

From the early 2009 bottom to our present top calculates out as a 630% gain. That puts the other 4 indices I track, to shame.  All the wave counting in the world will mean very little if we don’t identify 2009-2018 as a 5 wave sequence, complete with an expanded wave 3-4 correction. My take is that this huge bull market is a single wave structure containing 5 waves in Intermediate degree.

Others may have a 5 wave count in Primary degree, but this tells me their past wave counts are in SC degree already. That’s just like time traveling on paper, but then all Fibonacci even numbers would not make any sense as well. These big degree wave analysts just love to be special, as they think because markets travel in big and tall waves, that we must be in a higher degree.

This is the furthest from the truth as big moves do stretch and extend making small degrees look like big degree moves.

At a minimum the Nasdaq chart above has to retrace it’s entire January move, and that is just to get warmed up. For a Cycle degree wave 3 to get confirmed we must get a 3 wave bearish move containing nothing higher than 3 Primary degree letters. At this time I will keep any big triangle pattern at the bottom of my list.

Big bull markets attract the crooks, trend chasers and the novice as well. Most investors don’t know what a “Bull Trap” is, because participants are biased all the time.

In the long run the Nasdaq should also go below the 2011 bull market correction, which would be the 2000 price level. The markets will be oversold before any real price bottom, even gets close. Ignoring the news on any insider buying at that time, will leave you stranded with just a small  token position, and in constant fear of the markets going lower. I’m sure insiders of most publicly listed companies do not show their fear when they buy low, because they know that the business cycle will return. It’s more like the solar cycles that are responsible for the business cycle, but politicians love to take credit for saving the stock markets.

This market seems to want to frustrate anyone that is bearish to early, but it takes time to switch mental states before it happens, as once it does start on its correction there will be no time for the majority to react.

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Record High Update

The last part of December, 2017 we saw the Nasdaq decline, but this decline didn’t last that long once 2018 rolled around. The bulls still dominate this show, but with the wild gyrations going on we know this market is becoming unstable.  At this time we have two previous 4th wave bottoms, where we can find support. Where it stops is unknown at this time, but we also know that markets can travel well below any previous 4th wave bottom.

For any correction to have meaning, this Nasdaq must crash well below 6240. That will just barely get the Nasada bears warmed up, never mind completing a full correction.  How deep the Nasdaq bear market can, or will go, all depends on the degree level, that we are presently ending.

The Nasdaq is also coming to a Cycle degree wave 3 end, but it sure can fool us in the short term. At this intraday scale the charts can blow low degree moves very quickly as the market patterns are pretty sensitive. If all those expert wave analysts are counting the Nasdaq as a 5 wave structure in Primary degree, then they are too early by at least 2 degree levels. They will also be late in calling a bottom when it does arrive, just like what happened in early 2009.

I may not know at any specific time, as to the exact wave count I may be on, but I do have a very strong idea when I see a wave count, that it will never fit or work.

This morning the Gold/Nasdaq ratio was a bit above 5:1 which is the highest ratio I have recorded in the last year or so. One day we will kiss this 5:1 ratio goodbye, and start heading down to 2:1 again.

VIX Intraday Crash Update

The VIX crashed pretty good at the start of 2018. We are also at a 2 month long base,  just below that $9 price level. A record high for stocks and record lows for the VIX does not bode well for 2018. Analysts will twist the VIX results to justify the continuation of the bull market, giving even more incentive to stay long in these stock markets. Many question how much higher this market can go, but in reality they should be spending their time in figuring out how low these markets will eventually go.

The contrarians can scream off the top of a mountain that this stock market is expensive, but we know that the majority have never been listening in the first place.

At this recent VIX bottom the charts look like the algorithms are back at it again as the patterns are very tight and near vertical up and down.

The Mini SP500 soared to new record highs this morning as well, topping the 2728 price level. Another VIX bear trap and stock bull traps seem to be setting up at this time.

DJIA Intraday New Record High Update

After a choppy sideways move, the Mini DJIA stock bulls decided they had enough of that and then charged up in another little choppy leg to the upside. This sideways action can fit into a small triangle fairly well, but we may not end up with a big “trust”. The markets are generally getting weaker from a fundamental perspective. That doesn’t mean that the markets can’t push higher, as emotional investors can do amazing things when they catch bullshit fever.

At the time of this posting the DJIA had spiked to 24,986 already, and it could still take until noon PST  before a reversal may happen.

From the March 2009 bottom to our present top, the DJIA has seen a gain of 384%. Not bad considering the majority of experts just figured out that we were in a recession in 2009.

From 1921 to the peak in 1937, there were two 5 wave type bull markets, one gained 595%,  and the other gained 473%. Yet the majority never saw the bull market coming.

Even the expert wave analysts were still calling for DOW 1000 in early 2009, but yet the market turned and started to soar. The contrarians of the day were very bullish as insiders were already buying in late 2008. Insiders don’t buy their own stocks back on a “whim” and they sure don’t sell on a “whim”. It may take them years before they decide to sell again.

The last thing that will work is a bearish wave count after insiders have been buying for many months already. We just finished the bottom of  solar cycle #23 so the big bearish cry babies never had a chance, as all bearish wave counts were doomed.

The chart below is a bit old, but the end target for Cycle degree wave 3 position is still the same.

All the wave counting in the world will mean nothing if we have no clue from where we are counting from. Even though the majority of  wave counting failures has happened since 2000, none of the expert wave analysis went back to 1929 and started a new wave count. When we point our fingers to the wave that was in the middle of the depression, all we can see is a single spike to the downside. This was a wave 2 SC degree crash where the “B” wave counter rally lasted about 5-6 months.

This was a Cycle degree “B” wave bull market lasting a very short time, so I’m sure a “B” wave rally in Primary degree could even be shorter.

In the middle of the depression the market turned up and soared 473% in 5 years, completely ignoring all fundamental conditions at that time. The market also did this in 2002 and again in 2009. Bull markets end when the majority have contracted “bullshit fever”. Only the completely brainwashed bulls love to buy high, and sell higher. The smart money has left the building a long time ago and they will not be back until they see their company’s prospects are going to turn around.

The Gold/Dow ratio helps in determining how expensive the markets really are. This morning we were at about 19:1 which is a bit below the average for December of 2017. It takes 19 gold ounces to buy one unit of the DOW, and we would need to get closer to an 8:1 ratio before the DJIA becomes cheap again.

SP500 Intraday World Record High Again!

 

For awhile the SP500 started going sideways  late last year, but has now charged up to new world record highs.  This morning we are staring at the highest peak of the SP500 in all its recorded history, and it still may not be at an end.  One good thing is that I like to see a well defined top, which can make it much easier to count down from, when it starts to happen.  Any new record high, can also turn into a potential turning point, which still could take this week to play out.

Employment reports come out on the first Friday of the month, so this still could send the market into a wild frenzy in both directions during this week.

We need some decent looking impulse like declines, because 5 waves point us towards a new direction. Any nice 5 wave decline will never last all that long, as it can turn into a zigzag very quickly.  We are witnessing a 5th wave extension alright, but remember, 5th waves are never that strong from a fundamental perspective.

The big goal is to find a permanent home for a Cycle degree wave 3 because without it, we can’t find the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, and we would certainly not find the Cycle degree 5th wave peak as well.  The reason we are just approaching a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree is because the majority of wave analysts all are working from a 4th wave base, while all my work is done from a wave 2 base.

Working from a 4th wave base always puts us into a higher degree long before any wave structures have been confirmed. Working at degree levels too high, makes us very insensitive or prone to wait for the “big one”, when we should be fully loaded for the bull market to come. When our future wave counts are telling us more downside is to come, but insiders are buying their own stocks back, then that bearish wave count, has no chance in hell of ever being achieved. I’m not talking about any company share buy back program, which I see as a complete waste of shareholder money.

In the next day or two we could see another reversal, but until we see a single spike to the upside remain, anything can still happen in the short term.

December, 31, 2017 Year End VIX Update

A year end look at the VIX can give us some insight as to what is going to happen in the next 3-4 years. The VIX peak on your top left matches what I have is the Intermediate degree wave 4 top. What followed this VIX top was a long drawn out decline, with many counter rallies, that all ended with  vertical spikes. A person would be hard pressed to find any clean set of impulse waves during this decline,  except for very small degree level sequences.

What it boils down to is that anything with the VIX are all diagonal wave structures. Our “Little Blue Book” only shows what they call an “ending diagonal”. The fact is, these so called, “Ending Diagonal 5th Waves”,  can and do extend dramatically, far beyond what they ever show us in the EWP book. In the book they also show us pretty idealized charts, all subdividing into nice even wave structures. The simple truth is that you will “Never” find these pretty wave structures, because nothing in the markets is ever even.

What the VIX really shows us is a declining market with a potential wedge like pattern. For the last 3-4  months the VIX is setting up a massive base just below the $9 price level.  The two previous upward spikes came to a screeching halt, at the top trend line, before heading south again.  This base is now the lowest since the last major low in December of 1993, 24 years ago.

With the bottom base line being flat, the VIX bears are getting squeezed into a box. These boxes or uneven triangles can produce wild upward thrusts, that shock  us when they do happen. We will get a surprise if we choose to ignore these VIX bear trap situations.

The first peak we have to beat is the $21 price level, and then the $30 price level. Technically speaking, the VIX should exceed or retrace this entire VIX bear market, so hang onto your hats folks, as the VIX winds are going to start blowing to the northeast, sending stock markets southeast.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Update

During the last 10 days or so, the Mini DJIA has produced a choppy sideways pattern on the verge of breaking to a new record high at any time. Of course the idea of a nice clean single top,  has been quickly trashed. Not until we figure out which peak still belongs to the bullish side and which peaks are over on the bearish side can we build a better picture.

This will take some time to sort out as 4 of the indices I cover are still lagging behind the Nasdaq by a large margin. If a sudden spike to a new record high happens then this is a good thing, as it would be nice to see a better defined top.

Today is the last trading day of the year and if the market stays up for the rest of the day, it pretty well tells me that investors have no fear of the future. “The future is rosy ” mantra, is usually a bad sign. The consensus forecasters are all preaching to the converted, so there is nobody left to come in.  If the average Joe investor can’t convince his buddies that this is a perfect time to get in, then you know this market is already saturated.

Stock funds see biggest weekly outflows in more than two years – MarketWatch

Fund flows do get reported which are mostly ignored by the majority, but the majority can never benefit from this information as the herd moves too slow for all of them to jump ship at the same time.  This is pretty typical at major tops, so it’s nothing new from my perspective. Capital preservation is most important at market tops and this time, “It’s no Different”.  Fund flows preceded every major peak since 2000.

Gold, Silver and Oil have all been soaring, as the US dollar implodes at year’s end. When investors see their paper assets declining, they could look for refuge in gold related assets.

I wish all my readers the very best and a “safe” 2018.

My postings will be curtailed until the 2nd of January 2018.

Mini Nasdaq 100 Bearish Phase Update.

It sure looks like the Nasdaq is leading a trend south. All the other indices are not even close to following the Nasdaq down, but they can always catch up in a hurry.

This Nasdaq bearish phase can still backfire, but there is only one full trading day left for 2017, which does not leave enough time for one more push to the moon.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has dipped below 5:1 again and this should keep on compressing as any Nasdaq bear market intensifies. When this Gold/Nasdaq ratio becomes stupid again, which could take several years or to that 2021 time period, the markets will be ready for a new bullish phase. Until that day comes all the bullish trading accounts will show a major color shift to the red!

DJIA 2000-2017 Elliott Wave Bull Bear Market Reviews


The chart above is a stretched weekly chart which shows any vertical moves in a more dramatic fashion. The Elliott Wave Principle was observed using the DJIA charts and coincidentally the DJIA and the other indices all have similar patterns and wave counts. Always reviewing the largest degree levels is very important, as we have to make sure that it still fits into the larger picture that we think we are in. The reason why all these 3-4 sets of waves appear, is because we always have to look for wave 3 to be the longest or extended wave. Since 1932 any wave 3 has never been extended, but it’s always been the 5th wave that the experts extended. 5th wave extensions “never” travel across multiple generations as 5th waves are fundamentally very weak.

When the majority of expert wave analysts didn’t see the bull markets coming both times in 2002 and 2009, I knew this SC and GSC degree hype had “MAJOR” flaws in it.  As soon as any part of the largest degree level has failed, then the entire 5 wave sequence from its start, “MUST” be thrown out. Of course, this is too much like work, so the majority of wave analysts just makes a few cosmetic changes, and “bingo”, they end up with a new and improved,  wave pattern. Cosmetic wave counting doesn’t work, and if we just keep making pretty changes, we will miss every major bull market that will ever come in our future.

Just by not being prepared before any high degree bull market starts, makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient and pretty useless. I was brainwashed with this GSC degree mania myself, and once I realized that the DJIA would not implode in 2011, I knew a major flaw was still present in all our wave counts. It’s pretty sad when expert wave analysts miss a bull market and leave 300% gains on the table.

Any person with a very healthy investing account can not afford to miss any bull market in their lives. It takes time to make the mental switch from a long bearish phase and then back to an impending long bullish phase. It takes time to accumulate strong ETF positions so we need lots of early warnings. Even Warren Buffet screamed how bullish he was back in 2008, and my favorite contrarian was turning very bullish as well. It wasn’t until March 2009 that any wave counts were ending, so wave analysts were close to 6 months out, in recognizing that a major bottom has arrived.

In late 2008 conventional conditions were already showing us that the 2008 financial crisis was coming to an end. Insiders buying their own shares back, is a clear sign that the bull market was coming to an end. Insiders don’t buy if the 2009 bottom was just a wave 1 in Primary degree. They already knew that the markets were  oversold on a massive scale, so it was a no-brainer for them to buy stocks. Even the VIX started peaking out in late 2008, which all helped to seal the coffin containing all the stock bears.

My top in 2000 was wave 3 in Intermediate degree with its start in 1982. Once the markets crashed in 2002, it was followed by a 5 year bull market that most wave analysts also missed. From this 1982 bottom it was exactly 20 years to the 2002 bottom, which is part of the 20 year cycle so prevalent in the markets.

Each peak progressively gets higher in degrees, but Supercycle wave 3 is still far away in time and price. SC degree wave 3, never mind GSC degree wave 3, may not end until the 2029 time period.  Not until “All” 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, can we progress into any SC degree world.

The 2009-2017 bull market was a very choppy bull market, further confusing us into believing it was just another bearish rally. It wasn’t until the DJIA was past the 2007 peak did wave experts look for alternates.

Hindsight has to be turned into foresight, and I have been very specific with the wave counts that we need to confirm a Cycle degree bear market. This is so we can catch any major errors as soon as possible. When I’m wrong, I’ll be wrong in spectacular fashion.  Short term, wave counts are always foggy to say the least, but we want to get the biggest degree as close as we can, well before any real bottom is in.

When the markets are pointing up, and the majority are all guessing how far that this bull market still has to go, I have already painted the picture for when the markets point down again. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and the reason this is so, is because there’s “nobody” left to get in.

The bullish preachers are preaching to the crowd that has been converted for months already. All we need is for the, “Greatest Fool” to  crawl out of his cave and he will be left holding the bag of falling asset prices.

Buy Low, Sell High  is a very important PDF to understand, which combined with the beautiful color PDF chart below, makes a powerful case for contrarian thinking.  ‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Anatomy_of_A_BullandBear_Market_with_Money_Flow_0930.pdf

Like Rick Rule says, ” you’re either a contrarian, or you become a victim”.

If you have progressed, or lucky to have a strong net worth and you would like to enhance the contrarian point of view, then I strongly suggest that you subscribe to  Steven Jon Kaplans True Contrarian Newsletter.  

 

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

Nasdaq Intraday Bubble Top Review

This morning after reaching another record high of 6545, the Mini Nasdaq plunged, but has now started to rally again. Any  big bearish phase should produce lower highs along its journey heading south. At this time it’s not a done deal, as we know that these markets can make violent moves to the upside as well.

Diagonal wave declines do make zigzag crashes like this as well, so until that recent world record high holds, anything can still happen in the short term. In the long run the 5 main indices I cover, will all terminate at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree. From any wave 3 top we know that we have 3 idealized possible corrective patterns, which I have been posted for many years already. We could get a big flat or zigzag, with a long drawn out triangle being the last of my choices.

I have so many idealized triangles posted for several higher degree levels, but the chances are good they will never materialize. My search for all 5 waves in Cycle degree is very important, as without them no SC and GSC degree wave counts can exist. All fundamental forecasts based on any SC or GSC degree wave positions  will never work as well.  Sure, we can get a deep recession and if you believe the fundamentalists when they are bearish, then just look back to the 1932 bottom and the huge rally that followed ending with the 1937 peak.  That bull market was a huge 5 year and 473 % gain, in one of the worst depressions in American stock market history.

Some believe this Nasdaq bull has a long way to go, due to some income tax reduction. That idea will have great difficulty in materializing from a price bubble peak. It worked for Regan, when a bull market was just starting,  but It will not work for President Trump!  The odds are much better that in the end, Donald Trump will be blamed for any crash of the stock markets. Just like 1932 or 2009, any bearish bottom towards the 2021 time period will be the breeding grounds for the next big bullish phase.

Having a very bullish wave count in sympathy with the crowd will never work, just like a super bearish wave count in sympathy with all the bears, didn’t work in 2002 and 2009.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Review

At this time we have a mini type double top with one record high at 24,896. This is a far cry from when the DJIA touched 6500.  It has now gained about 383% and many experts say it will last forever, as we are in a secular bull market. They hated stocks in 2009, but now they love them. This has happened at every major top that we’ve had since the 2000 peak. That is just recent history, as the same mood was present in 1929! Each euphoric top produced a pessimistic bottom, before another major leg up occurred. “Is it going to be different this time”? I doubt it very much!

Remember that when you are listening to all those rosy fundamentals, think about it as,  “Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

Short term this could still be just a correction, but even then the DOW could fall to a previous low of 24,200.  Right now the Mini DJIA is sitting at the bottom of the trend line, which technically will not hold when a bigger correction starts. At this point all we can do is take one new record high at a time, as record of records are being broken.

The Dow just set a record for setting records – MarketWatch

One day the DJIA will break all records of consistently lower lows. I found a very good chart that shows the psychological impact of the market swings from a very bearish low, then back up to a bullish top, and back down again. It is a very high quality chart, and all those readers that don’t understand the big swings I talk about should print it out in full color.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Anatomy_of_A_BullandBear_Market_with_Money_Flow_0930.pdf

The Gold/Dow ratio is a bit more expensive, but not by that much, as it’s presently sitting around 19.77:1. It takes 19.77 gold ounces to buy the DJIA today. Below is another high quality chart, that shows this Gold/Stock relationships.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/DowJones_GoldPrice.pdf

As you can guess I’m bearish for the long term which could last until the 2021 time period.

Mini DJIA Creates Another “New Era” Record High

Markets just keep on extending and the DJIA sure doesn’t want to be left behind. I’m sure that the fear of missing out is driving some of this mania, with Bitcoin mining, playing a huge part in the rise of the DJIA. In short the DJIA blew past any short term expectations, which means that extensions are dominating the markets right now, with most extensions being in a 5th wave.

Since the 2015 bottom, and looking at a monthly linear chart, the DJIA has created a vertical move that will get completely retraced, but the exact timing for a real top is still hard to calculate. Many times these markets would carry on into the following year, so at this point anything can still happen in the short term.

To show us another sign that a bigger correction is in progress, we need this DJIA to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction and then fall below all November lows.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at its highest it’s ever been at a record of 19.71. It now takes 19.71 Troy ounces of gold to buy the Dow. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio was only at 15.4 so it has some ways to go to match the Gold/Dow ratio.  The new moon has arrived but that can just trigger a reversal. Sooner or later investors will start taking year end profits as all the paper gains must be captured before it can become real money.  At these lofty highs,  capital preservation is most important. In the next few years you will see how many of these millionaires today, will no longer be millionaires. Trillions of dollars of paper wealth will go up in electronic smoke and disappear.

Insiders have already captured their cash as they have sold out in May of 2017, but the average investor is still hanging on waiting for better times. In late 2008 insider and contrarian buying helped to put a bottom to the stock markets along with the start of solar cycle #24.  This situation will happen again, but it will never happen when the majority is in a jubilant bullish mood.  A deep bearish mood has to develop first, as bear market bottoms are the breeding grounds of bull markets.

Bitcoin Power: Nasdaq Soars To New Record Highs

Many times I can’t help it,  but to look at this insane market from a science fiction perspective.   We have a Bitcoin mining driven induced mania, that could be putting a huge strain on the demands of electrical power. Without the Nasdaq or tech industry, there would be no Cyrptos, as most of the high flying Bitcoin mining stocks are in the Nasdaq. Ask yourself, “Will these Bitcoin miner stocks keep going up while the Nasdaq crashes?” More and more stories are coming out about the huge power requirement for Crypto mining operations. It’s  getting to a point where you have to build a small nuclear reactor attached to the mining rig for power and cooling demands.  Even the demand for coal for power generation has increased.

The next thing we may read about is that, “97.5% of experts agree Bitcoin mining is the cause of global warming”. They blame the industrial revolution caused global warming, yet a Bitcoin mining revolution draws more power, than the entire industrial revolution ever used. They say that even coal demand is driven by Bitcoin mining. Coal was also used to power the industrial revolution, so what’s the difference today?

Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise – Bloomberg

How Energy Investors Are Getting In On The Bitcoin Boom | OilPrice.com

One day the grid will get overloaded,  triggered by some wild CME from the sun. Many Bitcoin mining operations would come to a grinding halt including many electric cars and trucks.

The Stunning Energy Cost Of Tesla’s Semi-Truck | OilPrice.com

When a new record high is in the making, then I look for a potential correction to materialize. Another correction in a bullish phase can’t go that deep as it would then break out through any trend lines. At a minimum the Nasdaq would have to crash below the 6250 price level, but getting there may not be that simple as this market refuses to die.

“Nobody Cares About Gold” Commentary

‘Nobody cares about gold’ as hedge funds seek thrills elsewhere – MY Stock 118

The present stories about the Non Commercial traders dumping gold to join the Cryptos Mania is nothing new folks. Back in 1999 when gold was $260, banks were dumping gold, individual countries were selling gold, which they called the, “Ancient relic from the past”. Stocks were peaking as well, so nobody wanted gold. At that time you could only find 14% bulls present, as published in the Market Vane Reports.  From this ugly bottom gold turned and soared 730% as the majority again never saw it coming.

I documented that turning very well in 1999, as even hedge fund managers were dumping gold when it was $260 an ounce.  Back then, mining companies were switching to the Dotcoms which was also called a “New Era”. Just switch the name Dotcoms for Cryptos and voila, we have another “New Era” 20 years after the first one. “New Era”,  are keywords that come in a bull market just before the stock market starts to turn bearish. . In the end, what we did get was the “Old Era”, bear market and small recession.

The sad part about this news is everybody thinks, that the hedge funds (managed money), is the smart money.  Sad to say, but the media is reporting to you what the dumb money is doing, not what the Commercial traders are doing. It’s the Non-Commercials that chase the markets up and down, and they eventually always get into a trap. Last week it was the Commercial gold traders that closed off their gold short positions and, added to their long positions. Commercial trader activities hardly ever get mentioned in the media, so a one sided reason, just sends fear into the hearts of gold investors,

As soon as the bad news for gold came out, gold soared $20 per ounce.  The problem is, nobody studies gold history anymore, and the herd can’t remember anything as a group, so these cycles happen over and over.  Gold is one of the most cyclical markets on the planet, and the real smart people are the contrarians, buying what so called professional “money managers’, are throwing away! Even the ETF GLD has to sell gold to reduce their shares.

My bet is that when gold crosses $1355, we will read the news about managed money buying gold again. When the emotional investors realize that the stock market and Crypto prices are starting to head down, but gold doesn’t  then what do you think they will do.?

It would be a real pleasant surprise to one day see, gold spiking like Bitcoin has. Most people think price is everything, so when the see the gold price falling they think gold is losing its value. In reality the gold price is going back and hiding in the gold ounce. In 1999 nobody could forecast that a $260 priced gold ounce actually contained $1920 cash.  Right now gold has been pointing down while the US dollar and the DOW have been pointing up. This all looks great for an impending reversal for 2018.