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Category Archives: SIL

GDXJ And SIL ETF Reviews

GDXJ is a gold stock related ETF. The great thing about ETFs is that we don’t have to worry about any single company fundamentals. All we need is a very good understanding, where gold stocks are in their bullish or bearish phases. Recently the story was that investors were dumping gold related assets, to jump onto the Bitcoin Mania bandwagon. Of course the Bitcoin bandwagon has now crashed and is burning in a huge electronic fire. No sooner that this bearish news about gold came out, GDXJ stopped falling and has now started to soar again. GDXJ reacting the opposite way of bearish news, is a very bullish sign in itself.

You won’t find those indicators in your trading tool box, but smart contrarians look for those signs all the time. I see this action during many “ABC” corrections.

During last weeks Bitcoins carnage, and a $9000 price crash, gold stocks kept right on trucking along.  I have dropped my degree levels down to Minor degree again, which means a bullish phase is still coming. Any “C” wave bull market, could send this gold stock related ETF to new record highs.

Any bullish phase ends when many bulls are present, like they were back in mid 2016. I called for a correction at that time, which ended up being about 18 months long. Long drawn corrections are necessary to wash out all those emotional investors, that have no clue about longer term cyclical investing. They panic anytime the market goes against them, forcing them out just before the biggest bullish phase starts to move. I can’t  give any specific “buy” or “Sell” instructions, but I can only relay my bullish or bearish mood at any given time.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio is still relatively cheap as it’s at 37.85:1 at the time of this posting.  This has compressed a bit from a recent base of 40:1. My extreme expensive Gold/GDXJ ratio is 10:1, so we have a long way to go, before this gold market becomes expensive again.

 

SIL has a different bearish phase, that other ETFs didn’t have. SIL just finished a bigger and longer correction, but has now synchronized in time with other turnings. From the 2016 bottom SIL produced a stunning move, which can only happen in a very short time span. The SIL bandwagon also had to crash, producing a bearish phase. Bearish moves in a bull market are necessary to get rid of all those freeloaders, that think they can just jump on at anytime they want. Emotional investors will always get burnt when they chase a bull market, or when they try to take their entire positions all at once.

Contrarians do not do any panic buying or selling, as they were buying during the entire 2015 decline, with GTC orders. Everybody hated gold stocks at that time, but look what happened shortly after. The majority always gets in at a top, and in the case of SIL they left a 360% gain on the table. I believe SIL can break to a new record high again, as this second bullish phase starts to kick in.  At a minimum, SIL would have to completely retrace that mid 2016 peak of $54. This is so close to a Fibonacci 55 number, where a 61% (1.618)  move above $55 will get us close to the $89 price range. SIL would end up just below a major double top.

The thing with anything silver related, is that during its entire life, it contained wild and crazy zigzag moves. These zigzags fit best as diagonal waves. A single zigzag bull market fits very well into any diagonal related run.

The recent Gold/Sil ratio is sitting at about 39.66:1 which is still very decent from my perspective. When the Gold/Sil ratio starts getting closer to 20:1, then we may have to look at the bigger bullish phase again.

Due to the fact that commodities are all leveraged, Elliott Waves don’t always act the same. Fear is the main fundamental that drive commodity prices up or down, not supply and demand numbers. Fear of missing out, fear of gluts and fears of shortages, is the real driver of prices. Hope and greed don’t have very much time to set up between mini panic attacks, while in the stock markets, it could take years for hope and greed to set in.

SIL, Silver Stocks, ETF Review

 

From the early 2016 bottom, this silver stock related ETF, soared much higher than several of the gold stock ETFs. This also makes it a prime candidate for an Intermediate degree top in August of 2016.  A few days ago, SIL may have bottomed, and if this is the case, then at a minimum SIL would have to clear my wave 1 in Minor degree. 

We also have the waves of this zigzag alternate very well, as this set of 5 waves has so far made bigger physical waves than the early 2017 SIL bullish phase. 

This makes for good alternation and is a very common wave structure. Now SIL just has to make a bunch of slick moves, to help confirm what we are potentially seeing at this time. 

The Gold/Sil ratio this morning calculated out at just above 35:1.  This is not an extreme expensive ratio, as we would have to get closer to 20:1 when SIL becomes overbought again. I have been buying silver bullion for myself, as it works like a savings account very well. 

Silver Daily Chart, Bullish Phase Review

 

I have complained many times that silver does not confirm many of the moves that gold makes. Trying to force the same wave count onto silver, or trying to turn its bull market into impulse waves, is a futile effort. For years that is exactly what I was doing, until I realized that the entire silver wave structure, is nothing but a crazy diagonal.  Silver also ended its bullish phase in 2011,  after which it started a decline. Sure,  parts of the silver bear market can be a high grade impulse, but in the end this also falls apart.  A double zigzag could actually be part of a bigger triangle, which ended on a Primary degree “C” wave in late 2016. 

What followed this 2016 bottom, was another very wild ride up. Right from the bottom, any perfect impulse wave structure was trashed rather quickly.  Most of the time this is a warning, that any impending rally would be a potential bear market rally, but how big or how long of a bear market rally,  was debatable. 

Still, this 2016 bottom was so bearish, and silver related stocks were so cheap, that a bull market was bound to happen.  This August 2016 top ended with about a $7 net move, after which it started another grinding decline.  For now at least, silver can be part of a “D” wave bull market, which has lots of room to move to the upside. We already have been in the “C” wave part of this bullish phase, and we need 5 waves up in Minor degree to help confirm it.

In the last days of February 2017 silver peaked and started what looks like a straight move down. Second wave corrections can do this, especially in commodities so I see nothing strange about this move. If and when the 4th wave correction comes, this is when we can get a complex pattern that will keep us scratching our heads for many months,  as the 4th wave correction plays out.  Sure, I can be very wrong, but bullish phases are not that easy to kill. They swing from one extreme and then over to the other extreme, which we can measure with Gold/Sil ratios, and other gold stock ratio calculations as well. None of these contrarian indicators are anywhere near extremes, so this bullish phase is alive and well from my perspective.  

Last week only had 50% bulls present, so that alone tells us that many silver bulls are still out there to come in. Silver had a 24 month low of 16% bulls which in this case was another extreme. Any extreme in  the 80% or higher range,  will start to sound off alarms as this silver market would be starting to get overbought. 

This could happen at a “D” wave top, and we know that “D” waves are all bull traps. The majority cannot tell the difference between a real bull market and a big bear market rally, but the wave analysts eventually have to figure it out.  When they do figure it out that silver is in a bull market, then chances are good that the silver bull market is finished! 

First waves and “D” waves can have very little differences in mood,  and about the only way to tell the difference is by “pattern”.  Price never makes a wave count, as the little blue book clearly shows us. (EWP) 

The silver market imploded in 2011 from a giant, “Stock Mania”  bull attack,  not from some government conspiracy that may or may not have been lurking, in the silver market.  This will happen time and time again, as mainstream stocks will always compete with gold and silver.  

In the long term, silver may hit the $27-$30 price range, after which we can run into some very strong resistance. 

 

SIL, Silver Stocks ETF Review

 

sil-oct-17-2016

 

This SIL bull market was impressive to say the least, but is it over and done deal? I don’t think so but where we are may be not  so simple. At this time SIL can fit into a nice zigzag correction so if that is true, we should see another leg up starting soon.  This last leg could take us very close to my previous second wave which is not a problem, it becomes a big problem once it shoots above this second wave.

Can 4th waves really fly this tall?  Of course they can, provided they are diagonal wave structures.  The 2016 bottom looks perfectly clear enough , but those patterns are put there to fool the lazy wave counters first. It keeps them busy thinking they are chasing a true blue bull market of humungus size and duration. I doubt the US dollar will allow them the luxury of being right. 

SIL, 2016 Potential Bull Trap Review

 

sil-oct-9-2016

 

 I had my suspicions that this entire bullish phase could be a fake or just another bear market rally. Only the market can eventually confirm this, and SIL would have to crash to new lows to make it happen.  Just like many other Fibonacci turning numbers, this time SIL came close to the $55 price level before it turned south.

In September I had a “D” wave top in Minor degree which is now replaced with an Intermediate degree 4th wave top. Not only that it closed a previous gap for the second time at the $47 price level. $47 is 1.382 from $34  which is also a Fibinacci number.  When we go back a few years SIL also rolled around the $34 price level for some time, before it crashed to the $21 price range. Many counter rallies also jumped by the even Fibonacci numbers as it roared from $50 to $80 in less than a year. There were some tally rallies that made 40 and 60% gains which did not put them back into a bull market.

Looking at it now from a Cycle degree perspective, we have to count the entire bear market again. As many times as we have to, to get a find a better fitting wave count. This time it is much easier to count out a diagonal 5 waves,  and I am confident at this time the degree will hold as well.  This 2016 blast to the moon can work out as an expanded pattern, and if this is true, SIL will have no choice than to retrace this entire bull market.

This 4th wave dipped into wave 2 by a slim margin, which also helps to confirm we are in a diagonal decline.

Next week will tell us more but I sure would not want to be holding long positions at this time, Sure, we may get a bounce, but then SIL has a very bearish trend line that it will run into again.  

I also mentioned that silver was lagging far behind so it may have served as a leading indicator as well.

The gold/Sil ratio also hit a very high number, which I recorded this summer around 25:1.  20:1 was my extreme range, so we came very close to it. One extreme is enough to wait until the extreme ratio starts to expand again. Right now we are sitting at 32:1 which is still far away from making SIL stocks cheap enough to consider taking long positions.  It may take until 50:1 or even 60:1 before they are ready to accumulate again.

If anyone suggests to buy on the dips, then they are still assuming and speculating on what they think is still a very bullish market. 

SIL, Silver Stock, ETF Review

 

sil-sept-16-2016

 

SIL has soared with its bullish phase and peaked out in August. SIL is now in a decline, but what type of decline will be important to know to find any bullish support price level.  Even if we peaked on a wave 1 in Intermediate degree, we could still see a net retracement to the 61% level. This could take SIL to the $35 price level. This would be a normal retracement, but eventually that will not hold as well if we are just coming off a “D” wave top.

SIL’s 2016 rally is loaded with open gaps below present prices, so if this bullish phase is a fake, then all these gaps will get closed. Silver itself has lagged far behind SIL so something has to break.  Notice how SIL came within  70 cents of the $55 price level.  So $34 could be a turning point or a temporary support price level as well. $34 also has an open gap,  so the combination could turn very interesting. 

It’s been awhile since I calculated some gold/sil ratios, It is not necessary to always calculate the ratios, but when we get to extremes it is best to take 3-4 readings per week.  The all time expensive SIL ETF hit a ratio of a bit over 20:1 in 2011. On this last run SIL reached a ratio of 25:1 which I have to consider as being very close to an extreme.  This morning the gold/sil ratio was at 30:1 which is better, but not nearly good enough for another major bottom just yet.

All those that talk about buying on the “dips”, are actually telling us that they are very bullish on silver stocks.  Any “D” wave or even a strong 4th wave rally, are big bull traps. The EWP book makes this very clear that a “D” wave is a bull trap. It is very hard to tell the difference between a 1st wave and a “D” wave, as the bullish moods are basically the same.  If any “D” wave trend is very choppy then it becomes and easier decision, but when the look very impulsive like SIL then it becomes much harder to identify. 

SIL, Silver Stock 2011-2016 Review.

 

SIL-Aug-9-2016

 

This SIL bull market has been shooting north since the early 2016 bottom, from the inverse split price of  $15. This works out to about a 346% gain in about 7  months or so.  The 2013 time period could be a point where the markets changed, as there could be an expanded pattern, that started at that time.  This SIL run sure is not a 4th wave as that has already gone far past the 4th wave parameters.  We could be approaching another wave 1 top, as it would be exciting to entertain at this time, but SIL when compared to gold is now rather on the very expensive side.

The two extremes that we see above is enough to give us a set of two ratio numbers. In 2011 the gold/sil ratio hit about 20:1 and the low in 2016, came in at about a 70:1 ratio. To say it more bluntly, silver stocks were extremely  cheap in early 2016. Today we are at the 25.6:1 gold/sil ratio. This already makes SIL very expensive when using gold as money. 

Sure, there is always room to move from an extreme to more of an extreme, but eventually the SIL ETF will have to crash and bring the gold/sil ratio back to the middle, for starters.  Eventually SIL will become extremely cheap again, and that would be the best time to buy back in.  Constantly taking ratio readings is the best way to figure out if anything is cheap or expensive, when using gold as money.  Any insider selling that may occur may be lagging too much,  to be of any use. Besides, nobody really uses the gold/ratio, except for the contrarians that have perfected it far better than I have.   Any indicator that becomes very popular becomes rather worthless to use as well, so a little known ratio is a great indicator to track and observe.  

When a friend comes along and says that SIL is going to the moon or silver is going to $200 then just whip out the gold and SIL price and show him how expensive SIL stocks are already.  Of course they may never believe you, which is normal.

Smart contrarians use ratios all the time. I learned from them or borrowed these ratios, as they make a very good addition, to any Elliott Wave Counts. 

SIL, Silver Stock ETF Review. Is This Bull Market Sustainable?

 

SIL-Aug-1-2016

 

 I must admit, that SIL has produced a blistering pace with only a few corrections. This speed and pattern cannot be maintained. This SIL bullish phase is also riddled with gaps which I know that they will all get filled sometime in the future. Yes, we can all get excited about the big SIL rally, but silver itself is lagging far behind SIL so something would have to break, and I don’t think it will be silver catching up to SIL.

Any “D” wave bull market eventually turns into a “Bull Trap”  as “D” waves can act and behave just like a wave one in a true bull market of the same degree.

The 2016 thin, long starting wave is also a classic sign of a potential “A” wave in progress. We may still be a month away from topping out and besides, we may get insider selling news that would instantly kill this bull market as well.  

  

SIL, Silver Stock Review

 

SIL-July-2-2016

 

 

When we look at this silver stock, ETF, bear market, we see waves that overlap so much, that it is difficult to get even a small true impulse 5 wave sequence. Any bear market has at least three core patterns that may happen, so I reworked some of my degree levels, looking for diagonal waves. Diagonal waves are not much different than, say a long drawn out triangle decline, but they are found in two different locations. 

I look at waves to help me figure out the location where we may be, and a diagonal inside a 4th wave bear market is not on the top of my list. A long drawn out triangle in a diagonal 4th wave would fit well. What I counted was a triangle, but the bull market that we are in can also give us diagonal patterns. When a bull market charges up so fast with very small corrections, then this can be the sign of another diagonal bullish move. They are not extended first waves. 

I use an Intermediate degree diagonal wave 4 for the 2016 bottom, and this bull market can have two patterns that we may get. A diagonal, looking like an impulse or an outright obvious zigzag.  In this market pure impulse moves are rare, and most diagonal bull markets will act very much like an impulse.  The fact is there are huge differences as zigzags connect the 5 impulse waves, and they are found in two different locations. 

I show a potential “A” wave as a top, but it could also be the first part of an “ABC1” move. 

There are many patterns out there that wave analysts try to ram or force into a pure impulse 5, but in fact the majority of waves out there, are the diagonal 5 type.  There are big differences between an impulse 5 and a diagonal 5 wave, and I will try to label more of the diagonal waves, as they are fascinating in how the zigzags alternate, in shape and physical size. 

It will still take me some time to check all my big charts for diagonal waves, and produce some better functioning wave counts. The work is in progress as it is impossible for me to find all the diagonal waves. 

A big correction to surprise us will shake out many of  the non believers, but this bull market is far from over. 

In the last few weeks or so I noticed a type of zigzag that repeats itself, as a single zigzag, but it is the way that it alternates, that is even more unique. It shows from my “D” wave to my “E” wave bottom, which could be counted out as 7 waves.

For lack of a better word I nicknamed it the “Slinky”, but it alternates between a leading  impulse 5, and a trialing diagonal 5, a leading long 5, with a  trialing short 5.  They are not double zigzags, but they are single zigzags that join the 5 waves of a diagonal or even triangles. 

There may be a good chance that this SIL decline was a “C” wave decline from an expanded wave 3-4 correction. This would bring in a 5th wave that is also a zigzag. 

We may get a surprise correction, but this SIL bull market is far from over. 

SIL, Silver Stock, ETF Review: Diagonal Wave Count.

 

SIL-June-28-2016

 

When I tried to count this crazy decline, none of it made sense trying to force it into an impulse. (Perfect waves) as there were overlapping waves everywhere. This leaves one other big possibility that it was a diagonal decline. 

Of course I stared at it for some time, but I could see the many zigzag type patterns all connecting together. Now all we have to do is figure out where this diagonal belongs, in a potential Primary degree picture. I may have to knock this all down by one degree at some future date, but we I have lots of time for that. Right now we don’t have a very good bull market, but a correction may be due all the same. If a big Primary degree “B” wave is in progress it could travel to new record highs. 

We have to wait for a big correction to see how it fits in. Even with a correction SIL should still go higher.

There are several open gaps below present prices, which they should get closed off at some future time