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Category Archives: Gasoline

Gasoline Daily Chart And Potential Bull Trap Update

Since the June 2016 bottom gasoline futures also blasted off in a record run. I believe this could be a 5th wave rally, with better formed impulse wave structures than oil has with the same degree wave structure.  When the mainstream starts to get bullish then this is a sign that an impending correction is coming. Just a simple bull market correction or a downright bearish move is the big question? In any case markets can crash back down to any previous 4th wave dip,of one lesser degree which is wave 4 in Minute degree.  Even if another full leg up were to happen, this oil chart could crash 60% or more, just to get warmed up. Any big correction must not travel to new record lows, as then gasoline would have been just another bear market rally.

Gasoline: Another Leg Up?

I think there is a big chance that this gasoline futures chart could be on another leg up as a 5th wave. It would also play out as another potential diagonal 5th wave, so it could end up being as choppy if not worse, than anything we’ve had so far. At this point a zigzag has completed, and if the majority does not find a new Tesla in their garage this holiday season, I don’t see gasoline crashing just yet. 

I refrain as much as possible from reciting all the fundamental reasons why gasoline goes up and down, besides, nobody will remember any fundamental reasoning even a few months from now.  We know that there is turmoil in the refining sectors when pipelines blow up or  break. It all depends on how investors react to any given news about an asset class. 

Good healthy corrections are necessary, so that prices never become very predictable. I rule out a triangle at this time because the pattern is too smooth to fit into a triangle.  Hopefully this will carry on into the spring of 2018, as gasoline continues to defy the bears. 

Putting Out The Fire With Gasoline!

David Bowie – Putting out the fire (Gasoline).wmv – YouTube

                                As you can tell, I’m a big fan of David Bowie’s music, and when I create this gasoline chart this song always come to mind. 


Gasoline has been on a rampage, but with many overlapping wave positions that kill the generally accepted impulse wave formations. RBOB gas has charged to new record bull market highs, which still has a bit to go before another big correction could happen.  The gasoline pattern will be a bit different than crude oil as the added step of processing has a huge impact with any supply and demand situation.  

Once the bull market started in early 2016 a huge gap opened up which we can clearly see in the monthly charts. This mother of all gaps will get closed, but it may take until after this entire bullish cycle has completed. A small spike is starting to form, but that can also push a bit higher.

There are huge differences between daily and weekly charts. I use the standard 500 bars in a chart, but many times I do switch them to 1500 bars, which keeps the entire bullish phase in view.

At the $2 price level, we could run into stiff resistance, with the $3 price being a distant possibility.

Gasoline 2008-2017 Weekly Chart Elliott Wave Count Review

Gasoline futures have a very different wave pattern from the 2008, than crude oil has. At the 2016 low, gasoline did not implode to a new record low so its not a big single zigzag gasoline bear market. It sure can be a triangle, and an ugly one at that. At this time I will use Cycle degree wave 3 at the top in 2008, but I may have to adjust this in the future.

The start of the 2016 bull market turned into a choppy mess very quickly.  When an impulse is this hard to count out, then we must be open minded to a big bearish rally. The two trend lines do not do it justice as gasoline could spike much further, than what the trend lines suggest.  The general public really can’t tell the difference between a fake bull market or a real one. The only way wave analysts  know the difference is what the patterns looks and behaves like.

Recently gasoline  made a huge spike to the upside which didn’t show up on many charts. This move diverged for crude oil, which is understandable, because they go through different processes. When I saw that massive spike, I thought this would produce a longer and deeper correction.

Below present prices, I have a small gap at the $1.54 price level. I think this gap still has to get filled, before gasoline prices can move much higher again.

Further below, between $1.05 and $1.25 we have a monster gap that Godzilla could walk through, but this gap should remain open for the entire crude oil and gasoline bullish phases still in progress.  In the long run this monster gap will get closed when the next big bearish phase starts to end.

Harvey And Gasoline Don’t Mix Well!

When it comes to analyzing some of these futures charts, it is very easy to manipulate the wave patterns. Turn it to a weekly chart, we get waves that don’t overlap, but then turn that same chart to a daily chart setting, we get completely different wave patterns.

Crude oil plunged this morning while gasoline futures ran to the upside. This sounds logical as Hurricane Harvey hit the core of  Americas gasoline production. 

Hurricane Harvey Has Knocked Out 25 Percent of Gulf Gas Production

The media have proclaimed that Harvey  is a ‘catastrophic’  or ‘unprecedented’ event.  These catch words are  used to keep brainwashing us that the end of the world is coming and not just a hurricane that happened once in 10 years. 

The problem with gasoline and distillate products is that they all need to be run through a refinery, which do get shut down for many reasons, including hurricanes and flooding. Many refineries took early steps to protect themselves, and I’m sure once the flooding subsides things will get back to normal. 

It just proves that the fundamentals of  any asset class can be very unstable and unpredictable. It was no surprise to the people that watched the hurricane coming on their satellite feeds.  Of course, this all helps in chopping down any inventories, which will show up  in prices at the pumps. 

The 2008 peak could be the Cycle degree top, followed by a potential zigzag that still needs to play out.  The 2014-2016 crash did not go as low as crude oil so that gives gasoline a completely different pattern.  Some of these rallies and plunges have lasted 2-3 years, so I don’t think this bull market is going to last much longer than the longest run we have had so far. 

Between $1.10 and $1.30 we have a huge gap that is still open. In a future bear market this big gap will still get closed, but for now this gap is not an issue. 

 

RBOB Gasoline Blendstock 2008-2017 Review


Since crude oil is being stubborn in trying to find a bottom, so looking at the Gasoline Blendstock futures may give a better bigger scale picture.  Well, that hope was dashed, when I saw that gasoline did not exceed the 2008 crash low. Besides not producing a new record low in 2016, we also have what looks like a huge gap still open. This gap will get closed, but I doubt it will get closed this time around.

This gap also tells us that after some future bull market top, gasoline can once again crash and go well below the gap, closing it in the process.  For now I will keep a potential triangle going, with the “A” wave, already completed. I can’t say that much for any potential Minor degree “B” wave being completed. 

With a potential triangle still in progress, we could get strong  resistance, at the top declining trend line.   This may still take all of 2017 before we can see that this market is confirming anything. There are many refining production problems that can happen, with maintenance shutdowns, or terrorists blowing up pipelines. 

Short term we can still see downside, but longer term I look at it from a big bullish phase still to come.