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Category Archives: US Dollar

US Dollar Daily Chart, Bear Market Review

A bear market would not be the right description if the US dollar erases 8 years of upward progress. There is still a very high probability that the US dollar bull market was a big bear market rally itself, when we completed a “D” wave top in Primary degree.  I think I was too early with my Minute degree wave count, so I have started to extend our present pattern. The recent May crash could also be ending at another zigzag, so we may get a surprise fast move up. 

The US dollar is not going to jump back into a bull market for several more years, but we should see a rather large counter rally when we reach a potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree. This will correspond well with a potential strong top in gold.   The commercials are still net short, with the speculators net long. When all this reverses, then the US dollar would be in a position to produce a very strong rally. This should still be a long way off. 

Short term we may see a small rally, but longer term, my bearish outlook has not changed.  The stock mania regarding the US dollar has gone into hiding, but we could see it return with any good stock market rally. Many will be just short term moves. 

US Dollar Intraday Review: Last Chance

 

 

The US dollar has rallied a bit further than I would like, and this is a signal to review the wave count again.  There may be a desperate attempt to break to new highs, and this wave count would allow it to do just that.   The idea that the USD can still falter in the next few days is never thrown out, as in this case two wave counts are in effect. I make my intraday charts fresh every day, and like to keep one wave count on one chart. 

Most of the time there are always two wave counts in the running, and it is only at the last minute that any wave count, gets down to only one choice. 

We are about three trading days away from the full moon this Sunday, so that may provide us with another turning time period. Full moons are usually bullish for stocks, but I have seen the markets charge right through the new moon and the following full moon as well.

Only time will tell if this top will hold, as it may take the rest of the week to find out.