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Category Archives: Euro

Euro Daily Chart Bull Market Review

Since the very late 2016 bottom the Euro has exploded, and for now I’m using a “D” wave bottom.  What we do have seems to be a good looking impulse, so I will go with that for now.   We could hear about reports that the Euro is done for, but this impulse is not finished as we would still need wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree  to develop.

The Euro is still a bit away from the long term bear market trend line, so that still gives the Euro some bullish room to move.  When the 5th wave starts to finish, then we have to wake up and figure out if it was all just a fake bull run, and that any anticipated “E” wave would never happen.

The commercial traders are all net short the Euro but not by any extreme just yet. If their short positions increase consistently then this would start to send a warning for a strong reversal.

Down at the 1.07 price level, we have a big gap waiting around to get filled. You’ll  have to wait much longer as I don’t think the Euro is going anywhere near that gap until all 5 waves in Minor degree have played out.

This should be just a correction, but it may still need to last longer and travel deeper before another leg up commences.

Euro Bear Market Daily Chart Review

 

 

For close to 21 months the Euro has been going sideways with some death defying crashes thrown in to keep us all guessing.  I look at the euro as a big zigzag drop, and this sideways pattern is just a wave 3-4 still playing out. 

From the May 2016 top, the Euro has declined in one ugly set of waves heading down.  These are not impulse waves, as they don’t even come close, even though I have no critical overlapping.

There may be more downside to come in the short term, but longer term we could see the Euro rally if the US dollar starts on a huge decline. This wave is also very short but wave 1-2 and there are evenly extended. When two waves are extended then the last 5th wave has to be the shorter one. This sure seems to be the case at this time. The commercials have been net long for a long time, but this trend chasing speculators, have been net short for just as long. They both can’t be right and in my experience it is more important what the commercial traders do, than what the emotional trend chasers and money managers are doing. The majority of the time the mass media reports to us, what the trend chasers are doing.  Emotional analysts reporting on emotional speculators, is not what we can base any investment ideas on. 

The Euro is just the flip side of the US dollar, so unless some huge diverging action is about to happen, I can see that the Euro has to go up, while the USD declines.  

 

Euro Bear Market Review: Will The Pain Ever End?

 

e6y00-nov-20-2016

 

We sure seemed to be looking at a double or even triple bottom right now, which could give us a bullish phase heading into next year.  When the USD implodes would it not be fitting that many runs to the Euro for a place to hide out?  I can’t see that the EURO keeps on imploding if gold carries on with its bullish phase. This would indicate a massive diverging shift to come, which I find rather hard to believe.  Only time will tell us what will really happen, but the commercial traders are still net long the Euro, even though the increased their short positions last week.  Can it go lower? Sure the Euro could make a wild spike to the downside, before it soars.  The Euro has tried to break out 2 times since 2015 and I’m sure it will succeed on its 3rd try

Euro Weekly Chart Bear Trap Review

 

e6y00-oct-22-2016

 

I believe the Euro is not as dead as many may think. One way to check are the positions of the commercial and speculator futures traders. The speculators act just like the public does, as they are the trend chasers, price speculation is all that is on their minds. Adding shorts to a perceived bearish decline is the worst way to trade, as you would be digging a deeper and deeper bear trap.  This is what contrarians rely on,  as they know that the herd betting in one direction can never win.

We could see a sudden Euro bull attack, triggering all those buy stops above present prices. This would  instantly convert all the bearish players into bullish players, closing off a nice bear trap in the process. 

This could be a Primary degree bottom so any bullish phase will take some time to play out.  I use late 2015 as my bottom, which was the tail end of a diagonal decline. This inversely matches the US dollar very well.  We also have a higher low which is a sign of a potential start to another bullish phase. 

Euro 2008-2016 Bear Market Review

 

e6y00-oct-19-2016

 

Great looking crash, right? Having a very bearish wave count in sympathy with all the other Euro bears will never work, as  downside would be limited at best.   When we look at the commercial traders positions and we find they have  very big net long positions with their Euro, then this puts up an invisible roadblock, that not too many people ever see or even look for. Analysts use the speculators as the smart money as they are being quoted the majority of times. Speculators belong to the managed money crowd or the hedge fund owners.

When was the last time we heard about hedge funds making money consistently? Overall, they are dropping like flies and can become extinct if they refuse to change. 

Not only are the commercials net long in the Euro, but they are also net long with the CAD,  Swiss Franc, Mexican Peso, and GBP.

Numbers like that make it pretty tough for the Euro to create one more big leg down, We may get more downward moves,  but these should be limited in scope.

Either way the top trend line should get sliced if we are in an “E” wave type move.   When all the euro trader’s positions invert, then we know that the Euro will either correct or just head into another bear market.  

From the May, 2011 peak, the Euro declined in one ugly move, that I can only call a diagonal 5 waves down, as we have some very choppy waves, that make the US dollar waves look pretty mild in comparison. 

You may hear many stories about a nuclear war coming from Russia, but some of that rhetoric is designed to rattle US voters and the new incoming president.  When I was a teen nuclear bombs were being tested all the time. 

Here is an excellent time lapsed video to give you an idea, how bad it was in my younger years. 

Euro, A Primary Degree, Diagonal Perspective.

 

e6y00-2-oct-14-2016

 

Up into 2008, gold and the Euro were best buddies, as the US dollar imploded. Now if the Euro is going to melt down, but gold is supposed to go up, then this would be a blatant Euro divergence from gold. If the Euro still makes a steep plunge but starts to find a base, then we could see a strong Euro rally that will impress us. Of course the USD would have to drop like a rock at the same time. With a spike forming, it would not surprise me that it can turn sooner than we think. 

Looking at the Euro commercial positions, they added about 23,000 contracts, to an already heavy net long position, this is very bullish for the Euro and also means downside would have far more resistance than we may think. Of course the merry band of speculators, have increased their short positions as well. This smells like a Euro bear trap, and until that all reverses, the odds that we get a Euro rally, starts to increase substantially.

 

Euro, Cycle Degree Bear Market, Weekly Chart Review

 

e6y00-oct-12-2016

 

The Euro has gone sideways for well under two years already, but these are not the signs that the Euro is going to go on some sustained bull market, and saving the EU zone from currency destruction. Everything points to the fact that the Euro will eventually head back down much further than previously thought. The USD has cranked up, as the Euro has headed down in the last few weeks.  Sure the Euro can keep going down, but then it’s going down as a diagonal and that would mean we are in a 5th wave, and not some other wave structure.

A short counter rally can still happen as we have two major spikes that could get matched with a third spike.  Another spike in the Euro would also help gold to soar, as for many years gold and the Euro were inseparable.  We will see if there still is a bit of a connection there, as I think there is. Markets have to eventually confirm this, otherwise we have to throw the Euro away as a useful inverse indicator. That will be hard to do, as the Euro is in the USD basket of currencies. 

I will post the Euro when I see a potential turning, but not on the intraday scale, but either daily or weekly charts.  

Euro Weekly Chart Update

 

e6y00-oct-9-2016

 

I recently had this bearish wave count as a potential wave 3 extension.  The Euro’s  present 2016 choppy decline signals a potential 5th wave. The 5th wave is one of the most popular places when diagonals can happen, so this is always a big clue where we may be at.

Either way this bearish rally from the wave (3) bottom to the wave (4) top, was about 12-13 months. The Euro downside should have a lot more time to run as Europe has killed most of its currencies, and the running to safety could send money into the US dollar. 

The Euro is on a Cycle degree decline which is the opposite of the US dollar. When this bottoms, then we could see a Supercycle degree wave (III) bottom, followed by a huge bull market, If it survives.  We may see Euros being pushed around in wheelbarrows, but I could be wrong about that, as they may need dump trucks to do the same thing. The EU has a banking crisis and it would not take very much to set off a mini panic out of the Euro.

Commercials are already net long, so this bodes well for a Primary degree rally still to come, but first a new low has to confirm this sideways pattern was a fake attempt at a bullish run. Sideways action is never a good sign for a great bullish run even though some more upside next week can happen.     

Euro: 1985-2016 Cycle Degree Wave III-IV Review.

 

e6y00-oct-6-2016

 

This week I have started to look and recount many of the commodities that I analyze. I realized that Cycle degree wave III may have been in our past for some time already, but now we have to find the best location for it. Most of the problems we had in doing this, is because the lack of charts that go deep enough in history to find a more detailed chart. We have to get the old Deutche Mark chart, and it will splice into the Euro chart above. 

It is this Euro chart where I have to inverse the EWP, and not the USD. It is the USD that refuses to implode because it still is in a huge bull market, and the inverse is still true with the Euro. I saw a 1-2, 1-2, and a third 1-2, which is exactly the type of count we would get in an impulse. This can happen going up or down, but with the Euro we are eventually heading down big time. Not until another bullish rally has been completed. The Euro is still resting, but don’t let any counter rally make you think that the Euro is going to the moon. It’s going to go the opposite way and get flushed down the toilet as the bearish mood at that time will be at an extreme. 

In the long run the Euro will get crushed and if it survives after the Cycle degree wave 5 bottom, then we should see an all new bull market in Super Cycle degree. Moving Cycle degree wave 3 into the past, pushes us closer and closer, to all the Supercycle degree wave positions as well. 

If the Euro does “not” hit .55 on the chart above, I will be surprised.  The next new decline should give us one more set of 1-2 waves in Minute degree, but many times they may not peak through. At this level they may be hard to see.  Once this next set of 1-2  waves completes, then the Euro will be about half of the way to its conclusion.

After any Minor degree 5th wave is finished, then only the 3-4-5 wave sequences will show themselves.  I have talked about the 1-2 punch many times, but devoted wave counters are the only ones that will understand these sequences. 

The “Big One”, USD, GBP And The Euro Review

 

B6Y00-June-24-2016

 

This is the GBP which I see as a big triangle in Cycle degree, but what we are seeing is an “E” wave decline in Primary  degree, which contains three moves in intermediate degree.  Chances are good that our present “C” wave decline in the GBP is a diagonal pattern as well, so I will be talking about the diagonal for a long time to come.

E6Y00-June-25-2016

My Euro wave count is a work in progress and needs constant reviewing to figure out where we may be in the big picture. I have mentioned it may times with my wave counts that the Euro still has to decline and make new lows, below what looks like a 4th wave decline.  In the aftermath of Brexit, the only thing left for safe-haven may be gold. 

 

DXY00-2-June-24-2016

 

This US dollar is the key to what is going to happen to gold. It may be a safe-haven along with gold as the USD and gold spiked together.  It looks like an inverted zigzag is still to complete, but if this diagonal pattern is real with the US dollar, we should see that 92 price level broken.  The US dollar would have a battle if another huge leg to the upside were to occur, but this Brexit is also a currency battle as all currencies have been affected.

 Again, I would like to see more US dollar bearish evidence as that would support the new gold wave count perfectly.  I show an all time high as a Primary degree 4th wave top, so if this is true, then there may be a very good chance that the US dollar will see a major decline, but with diagonal waves being the dominate pattern.  Five waves down in Intermediate degree would be the technical description.

 

Euro 2008-2016 Review: Has It Gone Far Enough?

 

E6Y00-May-5-2016

It is always important to review back as far as we can when the short term moves are foggy. At the 2008 peak, I am going back to a potential Primary degree wave 3, and creating the bear market with a diagonal set of waves where waves overlap more, but they still have a basic impulse form to them.

The Euro rallied for 2016, but that was a very choppy rally and waves like that usually retrace themselves completely. For this rally to turn into a “C” wave decline, I do not want to see the Euro hit a new record low but stop short, and give us a double bottom.  This would allow a flat to complete, meaning a powerful “C” wave bull market would follow.

Any bull market in the Euro is a good thing for gold as it is one of the inverse currencies that I watch, with the CAD and the AUD being the others.  I have no time to maintain a good wave count on the AUD, but will try and post something on three of them. USD, CAD, EURO.

If the Euro did break to new lows by a small margin, then this would be considered an expanded pattern, and any rally we would get would have a limited life span as well.  Any future rally can break into my wave 1, which would be very close to the top trend line as well.

Every posting, I will try and include or create a Parent category, where I can add several other asset classes of the same type.

I am still getting used to this editor and I end up making errors, but the short story is that all the single currencies that I do look at, should be under the Currencies parent category. I will also include Tag words, but will start to back off using “Elliott Wave Count” as everything on this web site is Elliott Wave related in some way 

Since I am expecting a decline, then in the short term this would not be good for gold and gold stocks. 

The commercials are still net long on the Euro but they added to their short positions last week. I take that as a bit of a bearish signal. In my old bullish consensus reports the Euro hit a low of only 10% bulls, which in the longer term, is very bullish.