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Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin Intraday Rally Update

This is the February contract. There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. If this doesn’t improve soon I may be forced to stop wave analysis on these charts. In the last day or so, the total Cryptocurrency capitalization base has  gained back about $156 billion. The total Crypto ICOs are sitting at 1448  with no change today.

You may have noticed I used a “W” wave in Intermediate degree, which I will use just as a temporary unknown position. I want to stress the fact that when I use any WXY thinking, then the “W” wave I use has a very strict rule. This rule is that any first “W” wave we think we see “Must” be a single zigzag!  It can’t be a flat,  as a flat would tell us that we are somewhere in a diagonal wave structure.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio also crashed in a spectacular fashion, making Bitcoins very cheap when we use the gold cash price to compare to. Just the shear fact that this Gold/Bitcoin ratio crashed is sending Bitcoin prices northward, at least in the short term.  Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase?  This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control.

Cryptocurrency Bloodbath Update.

Bitcoin bloodbath highlights these defensive cryptocurrency strategies – MarketWatch

During the night the Crypto coins continued with their decline, which some are calling a,  “Bloodbath”.  Maybe it’s just an old fashioned Meltdown and Specter issue!   🙄  They will use all sorts of  fundamental logic reasoning to explain the Crypto meltdown, but in the end it has nothing to do with logic, but has everything to do with our human emotions.

Some say they are still hoarding Bitcoins but would you hang onto Bitcoins if it were to crash to below $5000? The cost of mining a single Bitcoin is around $3300, so Bitcoin can always crash back down to the cost of mining.

On about the 12th of January the entire Crypto ICO capitalization peaked very close to $736+ Billion. Since then over $300 billion of US dollar capitalization has disappeared into thin air. Bitcoins were created out of thin air, and they are now evaporating right back to where they came from. Is this $300 billion, in the lost and found? Nope, no such luck as Cryptocurrencies capitalization goes up in a puff of electronic smoke.

This market is changing very fast and I think more downside is still to come. The last thing I would trust is any wave count, as all this could be just a one hit wonder. After all, did the price of Tulip bulbs keep going higher and higher with the Elliott Wave pattern?

Not only are US dollar values evaporating back into thin air, the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has “dramatically” shifted in the last month or so. This puts Bitcoins close to the extreme cheap side in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio. Even the Gold/Bitcoin ratio should not be trusted at any extreme.

The investors that went into debt to invest in Bitcoins are going to get hit the hardest as they doubled their leveraged. With all this US dollar value disappearing into thin air, it could bring down the financial system as well.  When the markets really start to implode, they could shed $30-$40 trillion by the time the dust settles.

Besides capital values disappearing into thin air the ICO’s on my list should also start to shrink from the peak of 1450.

Crypto Crash! Bitcoin Sinking To New Lows

Early this morning Bitcoin futures chart plunged to a new record low of 11,900. There should be more downside coming, but so far it has been a choppy decline that looks like it may be a diagonal “C” wave. Usually there is a much bigger pattern difference between the “A5” wave and the “C5” wave.  For all this Bitcoin Mania to be in this true blue price bull market that so many claim is going to happen, we need a strong visible zigzag or flat correction.

I won’t even throw out the triangle pattern as any correction will just about do. Sure, a big jump could happen at any time, but Bitcoin seems to be on a downward spiral that nobody knows when it will end. Cryptocurrencies are being attacked around the world so I can see the lack of bullish enthusiasm for the Bitcoin price.

What happened to buying on the dips of this no brainer bull market? After all, isn’t the Bitcoin price supposed to go to a $1,000,000?   Back in the 70s the experts were all forecasting the $2000 gold price, yet it never reached that price level. Instead gold turned into a 20 year bear and a crushed price.

Investors didn’t learn anything at that time and they sure did not learn anything this time.  Most price forecasts are a figment of one’s imagination, as they are just numbers picked out of thin air.

A quick scan of my Crytocurrency list shows the “majority” of all the Cryptocurrencies took major price hits this morning as well. It’s not just a Bitcoin problem.  There are 1450 cryptocurrencies posted, with a total market capital soaring to over $720 billion US dollars. Well, this morning about $140 billion of it went up in electronic smoke. All those investors that just borrowed money to jump into this mania are now holding worthless paper. We can’t even call cryptocurrencies  “paper”, but it still took paper dollars to buy into digital coins. In todays world, it’s electrons that go up in smoke much easier than paper can, at least with paper dollars you can use it as toilet paper once it crashes. These numbers are changing very fast as latter this week $200 billion could be lost. There is a lot of money somewhere in the “Lost and Found” department. Good luck finding it as the, “Pot Of Gold” at the end of the Rainbow contains no digital coins.

Bitcoin Intraday Swan Dive Update.

After a near perfect double top, Bitcoin succumbed to the bears and proceeded to implode. How deep Bitcoin can crash down on this trip remains to be seen, but if the inverted flat has any teeth to it, then the $11, 500 price level will not provide any long term support. All these Cryptos are used for speculation, and it’s only extreme leverage why these Cryptos make such wild moves. I’m not against any speculation, but when markets go down, they produce all sorts of fears. When fear dominates, then irrational decisions become obvious.

Last year saw a massive explosion of different Cryptos coming online, but early in 2018 it seems like new ICOs issues have hit a brick wall.  The last number to beat is 1385, related coin offerings. It will remain to be seen if 2018 remains bullish with many more ICO offerings, but sooner or later the weeding out process will start.

It’s still far too early, for any Gold/Bitcoin ratio calculations to be taken seriously, but spot checking the ratio every few weeks will help.

Bitcoin Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Bitcoin has now moved well past any potential 4th wave rally in Minute degree, which means we have to start another wave count but from a different peak.  Could this present rally turn into the next bullish phase up? It could, but if that’s the case, then we have a long way to go with Bitcoin staying within the two trend lines.

It’s pretty hard to keep bulls caged up just by drawing pretty trend lines, but for any bearish move to continue, the bottom trend line must get sliced.  Also, any $11,500 price level will never hold, as bearish moves always need lower lows, to keep the Bitcoin bears happy. Even now, Bitcoin can produce another major double top, just to make it more miserable to count waves.  Volumes are not really exploding, so interest in Bitcoin futures is not exactly the greatest thing to get all excited about.

From my perspective, Bitcoin and all other Cryptos are just speculative asset classes, that many are calling Bitcoin an “investment”.  Any currency is just a medium of exchange to measure and compare, like any desktop ruler or measuring tape. Buying or owning a bunch of “rulers” has no intrinsic value. Sure, we can have numbers on these currencies, but in reality currencies are constantly shifting in value, but the numbers on the bills never change.

When currencies implode,  they just print something with an extra zero in front of the decimal point, and the semi full of cash can now fit into your basic wheelbarrow.  The longer Bitcoin takes in developing a new direction, the more impatient Bitcoin traders will get.

As of this morning there are now 1384 Cryptos on the list, and when new Crypto issues start to slow down, then this list should stop growing as well. The worst case scenario would be that the Crypto list starts to shrink or stagnate. This week I noticed the first possible sign of stagnation, but that could be just due to the holiday season or even a misprint.  I would like to have more evidence of this potential stagnation, which still could take weeks to clear up.

It now takes 12.26 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which compressed a bit, from the 15.9:1 ratio I once calculated.

Nasdaq And Bitcoin Mania, Two Peas In A Pod

While the Nasdaq gyrates around, and investors have long forgotten the 2009 bottom, then it’s always a good time to look back to the 2009 bottom. 

 Bitcoin Wave Zero, started in July 2010 about 15 months after the Nasdaq  turned around in early 2009. It’s silly to think that this crypto mania  is special or the start of a new era. There is nothing new about it as the markets have crashed when new electronic equipment was installed. 

While there is only one Nasdaq, we can’t say that about the Crypto Mania that’s going on.  Some think there are about 1000 different cryptocurrencies in the process of being created. Shit, that’s far more varieties of cryptocurrencies  than there ever was in different types of Tulips!

We are in a tech driven world, but so was the dotcom boom in 2000.  My bet is that once the Nasdaq starts to turn into a bear market, then Bitcoin will follow right along with it.  A  little 25%,  Nasdaq flash crash will not do it, nor will a 60% retracement do it!  We are going into a bear market that very few investors know that’s coming.

When all the experts are painting you a rosy bull market picture of the future, then “Who is left to get in”?  Like Rick Rules says, “Don’t confuse a bull market with brains”! Only emotional people buy in at the top, and they will run as fast as they can once the markets and Bicoin start to head south again. 

Yes, the pattern from 2000-2009 is ugly, but we know where the 4th wave bottom in Primary degree ended. The 5 waves up in the Nasdaq look like the closest to a well formed impulse that you can find. Many smart contrarians know this market is heading down, but we will never know exactly where it will find the real bottom. If I say the Nasdaq will eventually land at 1300, it will go to 1200 just to prove me wrong. 

Nasdaq can rocket to 8,000 and beyond, says Bank of America analyst – MarketWatch

                                                         This news link is a prime example, how bullish experts are at stock market peaks.

Cboe Bitcoin (USD) Jan 2018 The First Few Days

This Bitcoin futures chart is just a few days old, and it would take weeks for the patterns fill out better. I don’t plan on making Bitcoin as part of my regular postings, but I will comment on Bitcoin about it’s mania status. I made a big mistake starting with a large degree sequence, as Elliott Wave doesn’t work that way. We have a wave zero starting location back in 2010, and we have a maximum of 5 waves in Minor degree.  Even then we may only be in a wave 3 of Minor degree, if it does not implode in the next few weeks.

They figure there will be close to 500 different ICOs (Coin offerings)  by the end of this year. This makes the dot.com bubble of 2000 look pretty tame, when compared to Bitcoin. The only reason Bitcoin is this high is because miners are hoarding Bitcoins.

The Inside Story of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin’s $460 Million Disaster | WIRED

I lost my Bitcoins when raiders hacked the Mt Gox exchange, and I see the same things happening today. Bitcoin bank robberies, hack jobs, and stealing wallets does not work well as an investment platform. I have calculated $3500 price drops in just 4-6 hours, so nobody in their right mind would hold a so called asset class with this much instability. The futures contract above (XBTF8) has seen low interest, as smart futures traders are staying away. 

Bitcoin charts with this contract is different than the Bitcoin charts I have been using as Bitcoin prices from the Coindesk site is heading for another record high.   

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio from about a year ago has surged from about 4:1 to a stunning 14:1 ratio. As of today it takes 14 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. This may even become more insane in the weeks to come. 

Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Zero

So you think it’s a good time to invest in Bitcoin? If you are, then consider the fact that you are getting in after about a  7 year bull market has already played out. In July 2010 Bitcoin started at Wave Zero, and within 7 years has soared about 285,000% or more.  

At this time Bitcoin prices have double topped at about $17,000 US dollars. The big question is, where does this Wave Zero fit into the bigger Elliott Wave sequence?   At one time I used Intermediate degree to count out Bitcoin, but I realized that this was far too high of a degree level to start with. Using too high of a degree, when complete corrections only take 4-10 hours does “Not” fit into any Intermediate degree time scale. 

Even the DJIA took a year or so to finish an Intermediate degree 4th wave correction, so why should the same degree only take hours to play out in the Bitcoin charts?  The plain and simple answer is, it can’t. Bitcoin has to start at a much lower degree level, at a minimum by at least 2 degrees. 

In other words, we could just be in a Minor degree wave 3 top, and Intermediate  degree wave 1 is still far away. $3000 price crashes in just hours does not fit an Intermediate degree move. The 2014 peak would fit better as a wave 1-2 in Minor degree. I show this chart to people  when they ask me about Bitcoin, and I always ask if it is smart to get into Bitcoins with a vertical chart  like this? 

Updated December 10

 

I thought I would add a candlestick perspective to Bitcoin. It’s a big mistake to think that Bitcoin is on some higher degree level if we don’t consider that Bitcoin started with a wave zero at about 6 cents.  At this posting Bitcoins double topped at about $17,000 is still holding, so if another leg up is to still to come, then the $17,000 price level will not hold. 

This Bitcoin Mania could have already popped which would mean “No More” highs will be coming.  A dozen other Crypto currencies are starting up, and none of them are accountable to anyone. It’s all private money and many are speaking out against this Bitcoin craze! 

The problem is that players in a mania don’t recognize they are in one, because if they did, they would have sold out last week. Greed keeps the players locked into a bull market, until panic sets in.  When the miners or hoarders start to dump Bitcoins all at once, then that $13,000 baseline will not hold. 

As far as I understand there over 16 million Bitcoins made, with a maximum target of 21 million.  This gives the Bitcoin market a 258 billion dollar capital base. Of course, once this Bitcoin bubble does pop, you will see all those billions go up in smoke. If you’re real lucky,  you might find them in the digital pit of hell! 

December, 8, 2017 Bitcoin Mania Review

 

Trying to put a wave count to Bitcoin is an exercise in futility. The main reason is that the wave degree levels I’ve been using was far too large. Some of these wild Bitcoin moves are happening in 4-10 hours. One move Bitcoin dropped $3000 in just 10 hrs. Any 10 hour time period is not an Intermediate degree by any stretch of the imagining, so I dropped my degree levels a minimum of 2 degrees. My highest degree level now starts at Minute degree. 

Besides the degree level not even being close, there is another problem with the charts. In the downloaded chart above, we have two peaks with one peak ending just a bit above $17,000 per Bitcoin. This pattern is not what we see in real time on the charts, and it’s another reason why any wave counting is futile.  

 

This chart I clipped from Coindesk, and we can see a double top at $17,000. Everyone knows what a double top can bring, but it will not take too long to see if this double top will hold. My interest in Bitcoin is purely the crowd psychology aspect of it and all the wild stories about Bitcoin losses and robberies. The Bitcoin world is like the “Wild, Wild West 2.0” as every boom cycle attracts all the crooks and scammers as well. This has happened in every mania, I ever looked at, so it’s nothing new from my perspective.

Bitcoin is part of the bigger tech bubble, no different than the tech bubble of the late 1990s. I’m sure Bitcoin will go down in history as the all time greatest mania, ever!  The wild stories coming out about Bitcoin robberies, and massive data overloading, has shut down or crippled Bitcoin trading sites. Online wallets going missing, hard drives thrown away, does not sound like a system that is stable.

Bitcoin miners are hoarding Bitcoins, and they could decide to sell all at once. You can be certain that when they all do decide to sell, the price of Bitcoins will not remain where it is today.   

Money, or Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, a tool to measure something to a piece of paper. That’s just like buying a bunch of plastic rulers, thinking they are an investment. Dozens of private Crypto currencies are coming out, with talk about the Fed issuing “Fedcoin.

Search the internet and you will find this world full of bubbles and manias, which is the most I have ever witnessed.

In the big scope of things we need a huge market correction to wipe out much of this delusional thinking, that is gripping  speculators in late 2017.    

Bitcoin Another Record High At $12,230

I couldn’t help myself but to create a wave count as well.  The specific wave degree may not be the right one at this time, but what followed the “ABC” crash was a diagonal pattern. These diagonals happen in 5th waves, so we have a good understanding where we are, in an Elliott Wave sequence. Just in case there is more upside to come, I used a Primary degree wave 3 as my top. This top hit $12,230 but we have to see if it will hold.

Normally any correction can take Bitcoin back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which puts the $10,000 price level back in the cross hairs. Anywhere between $11,000 and $10,000 would qualify as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

Sometimes it can even go under the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be below $9500! Any more than that and we could be looking at a complete bust of this Bitcoin Maina.

 

The chart above may be a bit old, but Bitcoin already qualifies as one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Horror stories come out, like the one guy losing millions when he tossed his hard drive.

Bitcoin: Man who ‘threw away’ $140m wants to dig up landfill

Gold company’s stock jumps 1300% after switching to bitcoin | MINING.com

In 2000 gold companies switched into the internet craze just before the markets crashed, and gold soared. Now they are doing the exact same thing. One thing that the Bitcoin crowd does not understand, is that Bitcoin is “NOT” gold. Bitcoin has “NO” intrinsic value.

Right now they are hoarding Bitcoins but the day will come, when the Bitcoin miners start to dump Bitcoins!


Updated Dec, 7, 2017

Bitcoin just keeps on breaking record highs, blasting past and wave count I had.  Our last Bitcoin price was about $15,914.  It is a silly notion when we think that we can pick an exact bubble top. Bitcoin has now started a bit of a correction, but we know not to trust for this price level to hold.   There is a plethora of digital cyrpto currencies coming, so the markets will become swamped, with privately issued money. Even the US government is talking about issuing their own Cyrpto currency. (Fedcoin)

Anybody can buy a Bitcoin Miner and if it contains the right card, you may be lucky to mine one or 2 coins a month.  Majority of Bitcoins are hoarded, and the miners will one day, try and dump them all at the same time.

The Toronto real – estate  scene is a prime example, how people want to dump their holdings all at the same time.  2017 sure looks like the “Year Of The Bubbles”.  In all of  history I have never heard about so many bubbles being active all at the same time.

There is talk about Bitcoin futures, which should give us some better charts,once they come out.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio achieved 12.77:1 today. This means it takes 12.77 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. It used to be that you could buy 2 Bitcoins with one ounce of gold just a year ago.  That is a dramatic change already and that ratio can keep expanding.

Bitcoin Crashes The Nasdaq On November, 29,2017

 

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At $10,000 I was very bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin blew past $10,000, and peaked at about $11,000 before Bitcoin made a dramatic reversal.  Block Chain servers were overloaded and many trades could not be executed. 

Bitcoin plunges $2000 after wild record ride past $11000 – bitcoinmining.shop

Biggest Crypto Exchanges Hit by Delays With Demand Surging – Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Rally, a Rout and Outages on the Exchanges – Bloomberg

“Demand” surge?? It’s more like being locked out and not able to execute any orders at all. I will not spend the time keeping any wave count on Bitcoin, as it moves extremely fast. It is valuable in that Bitcoin is faster, more like running in “Fast forward”  You can bet robots and algorithms had a lot to do with this crash, even though they scan for robots on many sites. 

Today’s low in Bitcoin was close to $9000,  and I’m sure more losses are to come as the rallies in Bitcoin remain bearish. Billions of Bitcoin dollars went up in smoke, fleecing the Millennials in the process.

 

At the “exact” same time that Bitcoin imploded on November, 29, 2017 the Nasdaq imploded as well. The other indices ignored the Bitcoin and Nasdaq crash and they continued to soar while the Nasdaq was trying to find its footing. The tech sector has the most to lose if the Bitcoin world or Cryptomania can’t mine Bitcoins anymore. 

Bitcoin Mania Hitting $10,000!

I will not keep a wave count with Bitcoin as any mania will just keep crushing  any wave count that we can come up with.  Investing in Bitcoins is a myth as all Bitcoin is, is another vehicle for speculation.  It is used by crooks as blackmail payment, and Bitcoin has been robbed so many times that it boggles the mind.  Hacking Bitcoin seems to be a favorite pastime. If it goes to $10,000 or $20,000 is irrelevant as massive price swings, makes it very unstable for any other use. 

This Bitcoin thing is in a “Mania”  alright,  and the charts below compare Bitcoin to other manias that we’ve had. 

 

 

The Tulip Mania is still the king of bubbles, with the Bitcoin running second.  I disagree with the “Tulipomania” time period as 1634-1637 is a more consistent time period.

 

Crypto Wallet Company Faces More Problems After July Hack – Bloomberg

BitPay Hacked, 5 000 Bitcoins Stolen – CryptoCoinsNews

Bitcoin Mania: The Bitcoin Bubble

 

 

 

Bitcoin Still Breaking Records!

If we want to see a “Mania” then look no further than Bitcoins insane price swings. A new record high of $7454 for one Bitcoin is not normal as nobody in their right mind can do business with an unstable, impossible to touch Crypto currency. Sure, you may see some pictures of Bitcoins but they are not real. 

My opinions about Bitcoin is that it will end just like any other mania will end. It takes large  computer server farms to create Bitcoins and they need massive amounts of cooling water to keep running. It’s getting to the point where creating bitcoins are causing climate change due to the fossil fuels the servers need to keep going.  

It is costing more and more to mine Bitcoins and becomes less profitable. Bitcoins price must keep going higher to justify spending money on maintaining the servers.  Once Bitcoin miners wake up to this fact, Bitcoin will fall and not get up. 

How much would it cost to make Bitcoin worthless? Less than you think…

Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable? | Investopedia

28 Barrels of Oil to Mine a Single Bitcoin

 

 

Bitcoin And Tulip Crash Review

Dimon calls bitcoin ‘a fraud’ and may have delivered the biggest blow to the digital currency – MarketWatch

Bitcoin Crashes After Chinese Exchange Says It Will Halt Trading – Bloomberg

‘Dr Doom’ Faber says Trump is killing the dollar — and that’s why people are diving into bitcoin – MarketWatch

 

Those who have been speculating with Bitcoin are now experiencing a crash in its price. Bitcoin topped out on September 1st at $4950. In just a few weeks they say that Bitcoin shed $20 billion. $20b just disappeared in a puff of electronic smoke. At least when the Tulip bubble burst you could still eat the Tulip bulbs. In the book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”, they cover the Tulip Mania very well. At one time I tried to convert a single Tulip to grams of gold to see what a Tulip would be in todays prices, but I gave up after a few weeks of trying.

Tulips or Bitcoin, any bubble will burst when emotional people are involved, and right now the focus is on Bitcoin. The one year chart above does form a very nice Elliott Wave pattern with a potential 4th wave between $2000 and $3000.  At a previous 4th wave we would generally find support, but this is too optimistic, as crashes can go well below the previous 4th wave.

Before you know it, this Bitcoin chart will be back to being a flat line again. Some are betting that Bitcoin will still fall under $3000, but who says that Bitcoin will resume any bull market at all after it crashes?

On that September 1st peak the Gold/Bitcoin ratio hit 3.73:1. It took 3.73 gold ounces to buy one invisible Bitcoin. In early 2017 this ratio was compressed to  where it only took 1.14 gold ounces to buy one single Bitcoin. Could this happen again? Sure it can and it may stay like that forever.

Hacking Coinbase: The Great Bitcoin Bank Robbery

Bitcoin: Hacking Coinbase, Cryptocurrency’s ‘Goldman Sachs’ | Fortune.com

 

 

 

 

The Bitcoin Mania: Has The Bubble Popped?

 

The Bitcoin Mania seems to have gone vertical, but has now backed off substantially. In no way, shape or form, would I agree with Bitcoin being an investment, as there are just too many things wrong with it. 21 million coins will not cut it for Bitcoin to go mainstream. There are many competitive E-currencies coming out which I think most of them will fail as well.

I do not have the time to create detailed wave counts for Bitcoin charts as  it is not an asset class, and has no real correlation to other assets. In May on about the 25th, Bitcoin peaked at about the $2766 price level, and has now proceeded to crash in what looks like a clean impulse wave at this time. Bitcoin prices seemed to move at extreme speeds, and it still has to fall well below $1600, before any bottom could happen. It would not surprise me if Bitcion eventually fell below that $1000 price level.

Since we  have no real Bitcoin coinage to touch and feel, you are paying the price of an invisible electronic dollar.

It is next to impossible to figure out if Bitcoin is cheap or expensive, and it would be a good idea to create a Gold/Bitcoin ratio. I have started one, but need to do more calculations to get a better picture.

In July, 2016 Bitcoin was low in price, when we could buy 2.74 Bitcoins with one gold Troy ounce.  With the recent top it took 2.74 Troy ounces of gold, just to buy one Bitcoin!  This is a very dramatic shift in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio.

Another interesting point I noticed, was that Bitcoin crashed exactly on the new moon date.

I only posted this because Bitcoin is in the news, and intense news usually can give us a major top.