Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin Update Heading Down Again!

Last week Bitcoins made a move down that looks like a zigzag and part of a potential diagonal. I will keep my 4th wave top in Minor degree but, I’m also exploring that the 4th wave can turn into an “A” wave.  Any “B” wave decline from an “A” wave would contain a drop much steeper than anything we see at present.

Sure, I have a very bearish outlook on Bitcoins and all Cryptos but Bitcoins is in a bearish phase from which it may never recover from. I don’t think all those that love Bitcoin don’t even know what a bull market is?   A crash from $20,000 to $6000 in 5-6 weeks is not a bullish phase,  folks!  In order for any asset class to be even close to a bull market, they must consistently display higher lows. Do we see higher lows in the Bitcoin patterns? Not really because Bitcoin “has” to travel well above $20,000 to still be in a bull market.

Some have even declared the Bitcoin correction over, and if it’s over than higher lows show prevail. Since the major top of $20,000 Bitcoin has not created  higher lows that I can see.  They are still pumping out the new ICO’s and we were at 1578 as of this morning. Until that number slows down or even shrinks, then the Bitcoin Mania is still alive.

The total capitalization of the Crypto world is running at $325 billion, and not going anywhere fast. This works out close to about $490 billion that has gone up in smoke! The electrons that are left are buried in a digital graveyard somewhere.

I think Bitcoin will head well below $6000 and then we will run into cost of mining issues. Any analysts should know what happens when the cost of production is much higher than the product you are mining!  Sooner or later all the so called Bitcoin investors  will get tired of Bitcoins not going up and they could also sell out in disgust.

The markets are in turmoil and Bitcoin seems to be doing the same thing.

I may only have the time to look at Bitcoin once a week, because other markets are much more important. The Crypto world is just too small to take down the rest of the world.

Bitcoin Update: Start Of The April Contract

The March Bitcoin Cobe futures contract has stopped working this week, so we must move into the next month of April, 2018.  I can’t go back further than the wave 3 bottom for now, but that may change early next month.  Volume will pickup, but it is so slow that I can’t see anything in the May contract month.  Bitcoin has been hammering up to the $12,000 price level and has now shown its true colors by resuming its bearish trend.

From a potential Minor degree 4th wave top, I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 count.  This would give us an extended wave 5 decline, but with wave three of the 5th wave would be extended.  From this point forward only the wave 3-4s should play out which would be about 4 more sets.  Each wave 3-4 counter rally will become bigger in degree levels as we progress down.  Sure, this may not work, but it is always the first thing that must get eliminated, forcing us to look for an alternate wave count.

There is no chance for Bitcoin to magically transform back into a bull market, no matter how long you keep Bitcoins in your electronic wallet.  Make no mistake, Bitcoins are considered commodities and the only difference is Bitcoin Miners mine electrons, invisible to the naked eye. When Bitcoins keep crashing in price, then they will approach the cost of mining. I use the $4000 price level for that,  after which we could see Bitcoin miners disappear and go out of business.

Sounds familiar?  It happens all the time in the real metals world, as they all need cheap power to keep running. Bitcoin investors can only bet on one direction, which the Forex crowd has been able to do  since the beginning.

Lack of real short players keeps the Bitcoin patterns rather subdued, with not too many wild reversals. Of course that could start to change.

Right now we have another H&S pattern forming which could be the setup for another downside breakout. Eventually the $6000 price level will also get retraced.

Total Cryptocurrencey capital base is about $328 billion US dollars, down dramatically since the hay days when Cryptos hit $813 billion.

$485 billion US dollars have gone up in smoke in little over 2 months. The pace that new ICOs are coming out is about 11 per week, which should slow down if no new suckers will buy into this Bitcoin madness. The 24 hour Bitcoin volume has also been crushed, so all this does not bode well for Bitcoins prices to soar again.

Even after any 5 wave decline has finished, any Bitcoin charts can start to flat-line never to rise again.

Bitcoin Intraday Update

I have moved the top horizontal line down to the $11,800 price level just so it is viable with this chart, but $12,000 would still be the magic number to break.  The volume related to  these futures contracts is thin to say the least, and I also have to move into the April very soon.  These H&S patterns I’m showing are very bearish signals, as the total capital volume has been crashing for many weeks already.

The speculators, who are the only people playing this Bitcoin contract are net short by a ratio of 1.37:1 which does not help the idea that some super Bitcoin bullish move is just around the corner.  This morning the Bitcoin price took another nosedive,  and all we have to do is wait to see if it retraces into another lower low.

I’m looking for another 3-4-5 wave set, and hopefully we will get some extensions thrown in, to give us a jolly good show.  It’s no longer about a wave count, as there is not enough volume. No volume, no real buyers, and when buyers don’t show up, the price can only go down.  No Tulip buyers showed in February of 1637 and within months the Tulip Mania ended as Tulip prices crashed.

I might not be able to catch the smallest turnings but I will try to catch the bigger reversals.  Bitcoin is “Funny Money”, just like the Super Mario Coins you collect in the video game.

I have spent enough time on Bitcoins for now and something radical must happen to break Bitcoins out of this bearish mode, and simple news events will not do it. Once a bearish trend takes hold, “no” amount of “jawboning” will cause it to change directions.

The Great Bitcoin Crash Of 2018!

One reason that the Bitcoins demise is useful, is that it is a prelude of what may happen in a Primary degree “C” wave decline. The only thing different will be, in that we should get 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. We are also coming to the end of all March contracts and the April contracts are still very sparse, producing poor quality charts. Any new useful charts in the April contracts may only allow me to go back to the February crash bottom of wave 3.

I dislike using trend lines very much, because they are so abused they end up having little meaning. All 4 bearish trend lines are based on the 2 points of the bottom trend line. I mark the $20,000 price peak as an unknown position, and not as an X wave. The center line gives  us an outline of one lower degree, and the 4th top trend line projects where any early resistance may start.

I may be far too optimistic about a $4000 Bitcoin price crash, as both volume and total Crypto capitalization has been crashing dramatically.  I looked at 114 countries and their mining costs, and I only found 27 that had mining costs below $4000.  Once Bitcoin mining costs exceed the cash price of a single Bitcoin, then Bitcoin miners will begin to shut down.

This is not rocket science folks, but basic Mining 101.  The news you may be hearing about this Crypto world being a “New Era” is all bullshit, as those claims have been made at the tops of “every” market bubble since the 1600’s.

My wave 3 in Minor degree could also be an “A” wave, but I will explore that at a later date. The problem with an “A” wave is that I don’t like to see a zigzag correction in a zigzag.  In order for Bitcoins to still be in a bull market, Bitcoins must eventually surpass $20,000 USD again. Bitcoin charts are not giving us higher highs, so there is no chance that we are still in a Bitcoin bull market.

The Bitcoin world has been bleeding red during most of last week, so those are not optimistic indicators. If any good news does not sustain a rally, then that also indicates that Bitcoin is still in a big bearish phase.

Bitcoin Intraday Bear Market Crash Update

At $9200 support for Bitcoin failed, with a downside breakout. Today’s bottom at $8500 was helped by the previous wave two bull market in early February.  Even though these are futures contracts, the wave patterns are not as violent as any real leveraged futures contracts are. Even when Bitcoins are in a diagonal decline, they still have a smooth flow to them.

It took me awhile to see this, but the different flow pattern is due to the fact that the majority cannot directly short Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin future’s came out, the commercial traders still have “NO” positions in either direction. Only the speculators are playing and they have been net short, since the futures started trading. $12,000 was the magic Bitcoin number to beat and Bitcoin refused the challenge to cross that line.  This has produced a major H&S pattern that not to many Bitcoin investors even see. Those that are into Bitcoin and think they are “investing” can’t even read charts, never mind  learning the basics about, what “Technical Analysis” is. “TA” is an invention created back in the 70’s when computers really started to improve in speed.

At this time I’m very confident in saying that Bitcoin prices can fall well below $5000 and even $4000 would not surprise me. At $4000 USD,  Bitcoin is getting close to the cost of producing a single Bitcoin.  This will force many Bitcoin miners to go out of business.

The total Crypto ICO list will start to shrink when this starts to happen. At this time about 10 per week have been added onto the list.

In the last two months or so, Cryptocurrency capitalization has crashed from $829 billion, to $369 billion. $460 billion has evaporated  in an electronic puff of smoke. This shows me there is no real stomach to jump onto the Bitcoin craze when prices are free falling. Talk to any younger Bitcoin investors and chances are good they know little or nothing about “TA”.

My question is, “at what wave count that my wave 5s in Minor degree will end at”?  Bitcoin, which some call “Super Mario Coins”, or “Bitch Coins”, could eventually “flat line”and never rise from the ashes again. Bitcoin is a commodity with no intrinsic value and no amount of denying this fact will change where Bitcoins will end at. The fact that the SEC will force Crypto exchange registration is a good thing, as all the big illegal players need to be weeded out!

Bitcoin Rally Review: $12,000 Or Bust?


Looking for a different perspective, I decided to use the line type settings. With line type settings most of the erroneous spikes disappear or smooth out, and no gaps will show up. Switching between bars and line settings can also change any wave count.

The first thing I saw was that it can work as a diagonal decline. If the crash to that $6000 bottom is a “C” wave, completing wave 3 in Minor degree, then this Bitcoin bear market is not finished yet.  The problem is, where in this 4th wave rally are we?

I don’t have the magic location, but I love the challenge of counting out a set of 5 waves  that may be impulse related. Besides that, this market decline is good practice because we will get the same puzzle again, once the general markets hit their market lows. The only difference will be that the last part of the DJIA decline will be a 4th wave in Intermediate degree, followed by 5 waves in Minor degree.

Over all volumes in Bitcoin trading has been dramatically curtailed, which tells me Bitcoins as an investment is fading fast.

Over 1541 Cryptos are presently posted, with a total capitalization of about $445 billion, US dollars. Since its hay days of 2017, about $275  billion US dollars have gone up in digital smoke, and I’m sure that smoke will keep on coming.

Sheila Bair says bitcoin has no intrinsic value — but neither does the dollar – MarketWatch

This describes my sentiments exactly as most Bitcoin investors don’t even know what “intrinsic” value is.

I like 4th waves, but they can be pretty tough to decipher. I consider 4th waves (up or down) to be the most important wave. Keeping my degree levels low still makes sense, because you will “never” see,  5 waves down in Primary degree on a 90 minute, intraday chart. Even 5 waves down in Intermediate degree may never show up!

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.47:1, and has only come close to this 3 times in the last year. A double or triple top in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio does not bode well for the price of Bitcoins. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not have any forecasting value for Bitcoins, but I’m sure this ratio will shrink much more.  A shrinking or compressing ratio means that you need fewer gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin.

If the rally that has completed was a 4th wave rally, then Bitcoins will crash below $6000. Of course, if we are in a triangle that would drag the time out some more.

I’m very bearish on Bitcoins, and hanging on to them when they can crash $4000 makes no sense to me.  Even after all this starts to play out, then Bitcoins price could flat line, just like Tulips did in 1637!

Bitcoin Futures Bullish Phase Review

Since the February bottom Bitcoin did not inspire great confidence that Bitcoins will soar to new record breaking highs. At about the $11,800 price level Bitcoins seems to be running into a brick wall, but as usual looks can be deceiving. We have a pretty good looking H&S forming, but we also know that many times that markets have soared from this type of setup.

Any diagonal bullish phase can still push Bitcoin higher in the near term, so all hope for this bullish phase to halt is not completely lost.

Higher lows are the signs of a bull market. So in order for Bitcoins fit the description of a conventional bull market, it “must” travel well above $20,000 in the future. Since these futures have started trading no commercial traders have taken any positions in any direction. Only the speculators are playing this market, and they are very pessimistic as they have net short positions.

When the experts talk about investing in Bitcoins then they know nothing about leverage. Being a Bitcoin investor will eventually shred your account as the violent moves can destroy anything in its path.

Crypto Craze Has Hydro-Quebec CEO’s Phone ‘Ringing Off the Hook’ – Bloomberg

Big Bitcoin miners are moving to jurisdictions that have cheaper power.

Any major power outages or some solar flare smashing into the earth can stop the Bitcoin network in its tracks. Are investors running into Bitcoins to sidestep the stock markets?,  but if this is true, then when stocks make another huge bullish move, Bitcoins should crash.

As of this morning 1531 ICOs exist, which works out to about 10 new coin offerings per week. Total capitalization is sitting at $450 billion, down quite a bit from the $730 billion it once had. At one time I swore that the Crypto world was heading to a trillion dollars of capitalization, due to the momentum it had. So far the capitalization trend is smashing up against a brick wall.

Cobe Bitcoin Futures Closing in on $12,000

In the last two weeks the Bitcoin bears have been slaughtered and shredded by the bulls sharp horns. Technically speaking, if Bitcoins are in a true bull market, then it “must” break that magic $20,000 price level again. Why “must” Bitcoins break that $20,000 price level?  Because that’s what bull markets do, and what the EWP teaches us is supposed to happen.

I have drawn 3 conventional trend lines, and which line will get sliced first? At close to $12,000 Bitcoin futures are running into potential resistance created in the 2017 decline.

Anonymous Cryptocurrency Trader Buys $400 Million in Bitcoin | Investopedia

Maybe this Bitcoin price rise is all about the mysterious trader that bought $400 million of Bitcoins when Bitcoins slumped in price. News like that can get all the Crypto fans excited. Bitcoin fever is very infectious, so I had to buy a bunch of fake Bitcoins to touch and hold. I ordered them in from China and show them to people. The reaction on peoples faces when they see the coin is priceless!

I showed the coins to my friends and they all wanted 1 or 2 right away. Anyways, I will be getting more Bitcoin collector rounds. I fully understand that any physical Bitcoins we may see are fakes, but they sure can become great collectors items. The Bitcoins I have contain one Troy ounce of pure copper, (99.99%) plated with a thin layer of gold. How much gold plating that are on these coins is unknown, and they may need to get x-rayed to find out.

Ethereum chief warns cryptocurrencies could ‘drop to near-zero at any time’ – MarketWatch

Any of these Cryptos can go to zero, so a physical fake Bitcoin will look nice up on your wall. The Crypto universe is still growing with about 1548 ICO’s on the list.  So far the total capitalization of the Cryptos peaked at about $512 billion this morning, which was the highest in all of February.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.63:1 this morning from a peak of over 15:1.

The commercials have not opened a single position long or short since Bitcoin futures started to trade. This tells me there is no interest from the commercial trader’s perspective.  Only the trend chasers are chasing Bitcoins down with their net short positions.

Bitcoin Is The Bear Market Over?

Has the Bitcoin decline stopped and has now returned to a bull market.?  I doubt it, as this present rally is not producing the impulse waves required. Bitcoin definaly sliced through the top trend line so that alone will bump the degree level up by at least one degree.

Iceland to use more energy mining bitcoin than powering its homes | Metro News

Bitcoin mining takes up a massive amounts of electricity and computing power,  where the miners in Iceland consume more power than the entire Icelandic grid needs to run its homes. Many miners are moving to places that have the lowest electricity rates like Quebec.

Even though this rally looks impressive I think Bitcoin can still fall well below $3000 per coin. Of course, this rally could just be coinciding with the stock market rally,  so we will see how long this rally will last once the markets resume their bearish trend. After all it was the Nasdaq bull market that spawned this Bitcoin Mania so Bitcoin Mania can also keep dying right along with the Nasdaq.  A $4000 rally does not make a bull market, but it sure gets the bullish investors excited again,  with the injection of “Hope”. Hope that Bitcoins keep going up in price.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio touched 7.48:1 this afternoon, which is about a 50% crash from its high ratio of 15:1.

The amount of new Cryptos seems to keep going and now registers 1533 ICO’s,  with a total capital base of $467 billion US dollars.

Investors think they can hide Bitcoin gains from the government, but I think this is a big mistake in their thinking. Bitcoins are unstable at best and nobody in their right mind will hold Bitcoins when they start crashing again. Imagine buying a house with the price of $20,000 for a single Bitcoin,  and as soon as you get these Bitcoins they start to crash to $6000 in little more than a month. Bitcoins will crash faster than any real-estate will, so your Bitcoin windfall can turn into a disaster very quickly.

Bitcoin Futures Rally Review

In the last day or so Bitcoin has surged which is not the start of a runaway bull market, but can be a simple inverted zigzag. This grinding bear market has not acted like some fantastic looking flat or zigzag. The moves would be far more violent than we are presently getting.

None of the declines have been sheer vertical drops typical of a C5 wave in a flat or zigzag. I have said in the past that, any asset class that starts from “Zero” can end at “Zero”.

The funny part about this is that the mainstream media is starting to talk like that!

Get Ready for Most Cryptocurrencies to Hit Zero, Goldman Says – Bloomberg

The total Cryptocurrencies numbers have actually dropped in the last few days from 1514 back down to 1506. This number may even decline some more if they keep shelving projects due to lack of interest, bankruptcies, or just too costly to implement.

The Bitcoin ratio is 6.32:1 which is and extreme reading, but who says that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can’t hit 1:1.  One of the lowest readings I have is a ratio of 1.74:1, so any 2:1 ratio would not surprise me. Does this mean that Bitcoins can start into a super bullish phase? I doubt it,  as all Cryptocurrencies can flat line just like Tulips did.

Bitcoin Eradication Program In Progress!

There is little chance that the entire Crypto scene will just suddenly get up and soar to new world records.  Ain’t going to happen! Chances are good Bitcoin will flat line once it crashes well below the $5000 price level. Any lower and it will cost more to mine Bitcoins that what miners can sell it for. They just about need a small nuclear reactor attached to the Bitcoin mining operation to stay profitable.

The bear market pattern in Bitcoins shows nothing that some miracle, “ABC” correction is taking place, so in the long run the wave count could die a slow and painful death.  I have no sympathy for those that are losing their shirt,  as this “mania” was pretty clear from the onset.  We also had enough warnings by mania watchers, that the Bitcoin Mania was out of control.

Pretty soon it will only be worth it for an update once every few weeks as interest in all things Crypto wanes and disappears in the dustbins of history.

Bitcoin Decline Taking A Break?

Last week the Bitcoin slide seems to have come to a halt, at least temporary. Nothing is certain but on Friday Cryptocurrencies jumped by $39 billion, with about 1507 total cryptocurrencies being published. The pace of ICOs seems to be slowing down a bit  with the addition of only one or two ICOs in a week.  If I use trend lines, then I always use them in perfect parallel first, in this case my bottom trend line is the base ending on another spike on Friday.

My wave counts are not trustworthy to say the least, but I see no real switch back to a bull market just yet.  We would need to see a much steeper decline than what we have had so far. So far about $11,520 has been erased from the Bitcoin ledgers, as the world seems to attack this unregulated market. Those people that tell you that Bitcoin is an investment have no clue in what they are talking about as nothing this unstable should be called an investment in the first place.

I ordered in 11 of the fake Bitcoins and I showed my friends my order sheets. They wanted Bitcoins as a novelty item as well, so chances are good I can sell all of them as they will show their Bitcoins to friends as well.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America bar bitcoin buys with a credit card – Business Sector

Bitcoin is under attack on a fronts with most banks no longer willing to allow customers to purchase Bitcoins with their credit cards.

Nothing that has happened after the Bitcoin bubble burst has surprised me one bit, as this Bitcoin Mania could be a one hit wonder! Just in case you just walked out of a cave,  you are witnessing the crash of the biggest mania in market history surpassing even the Tulip Mania  by a long shot.

The Bitcoin Crash Continues

Bitcoin has now reached a new record low with no end in sight just yet. About $50 billion was erased this morning already and there should be more to come. Even though the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has imploded dramatically it still wants to compress some more. This morning it sat at 6.67:1 still up from a record low of 1.74:1.

There is still no sign that Bitcoin will act like a bull market again, as we could have had a one hit wonder like Tulips were. Those that call Bitcoin an investment should read about all the robberies and hack jobs so common within all of the Cryptocurrencies. More than $10,000 has been wiped off the price of a single Bitcoin. I would have to check some more, but they say that it costs about $3300 to mine one Bitcoin. All major countries seem to be cracking down on this unregulated market, which I expect that to continue.

Bitcoin Bear Market And Robberies Continue!


Japan Gets Tougher On All Crypto Exchanges After Coincheck Hack

Masked Gunmen Steal ‘Fortune’ in Bitcoin in UK Robbery – Bitcoinist.com

Coincheck Confirms Crypto Hack Loss Larger than Mt Gox – CoinDesk

Bitcoin – Millennials Fake Gold | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge


The news about Bitcoin has not been kind as the real state of Crypto coins revels itself.  All these new Bitcoin billionaires are painting a bulls eye on their faces when they openly brag about their wealth they think they have. Bitcoin has been going sideways, and it still can swing in both directions before it decides on a new trend, or to finish an old trend.

Either way it doesn’t look like Bitcoin is going to go “Vertical” any time soon due to the fact that major groups are stealing Bitcoins by hacking, or now home invasions. From my perspective, this Crypto market is the Wild West, where there is no town marshal. Nobody is responsible for what they do so 100’s of millions USD valued Bitcoins have already gone missing, and many more will still disappear.

I visited my bullion dealer who was very open about the fact that gold owners were coming in and dumping their gold holdings to buy Bitcoins. Dumping gold to buy Bitcoins is like chasing Fool’s Gold thinking its real gold.

There are many fake physical Bitcoins being stamped and sold on the open market as my bullion dealer showed me one. I had to have one, so I ordered 6 fake Bitcoin rounds online, which I will use to see the reactions on peoples faces. These fake Bitcoins have a 99.999% pure gold plating on it and I will find someone to get it tested once I take physical possession of the Bitcoins.

This may not happen for several more weeks, but my gut feeling is that I should have ordered twice as many.  I think people love them as novelty items and I want to show them to people before I think about ordering more. My landed cost for a single fake Bitcoin will be about $4 CAD.

Great Bitcoin Robbery V2.0

The cryptocurrency market just suffered a theft worse than Mt. Gox – MarketWatch

Bitcoin Futures Intraday Update:

In my last post I showed an Intermediate degree “W” wave. Well, We could be in another one.   The one main problem I have with counting it as a zigzag pattern is that the A5 and B5 waves are very close to being the same angle.  Real zigzags are far more violent and contain far more diagonals wave structures as well, so for now I will bury the idea of a zigzag.

I believe we could be starting another new set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, but he only way that can even start to get confirmed is when a new Bitcoin low is reached. In other words Bitcoin patterns have to act the part of an impulse.

Markets have a nasty habit of trashing wave counts and opinions, so when this impending wave count goes off the rails, then most of the wave count has to be instantly trashed. The worst thing we can do is carry garbage wave counts with us into the future. The wave patterns should take a little longer to play out, so we have to have a bit more patience as this bear market starts to get serious.

There are now 1491 Cryptos competing to take money from gullible investors, with the total capitalization back up at about 565 billion US dollars.  These numbers shift dramatically and can swing, many billions in just hours. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is still  compressed at 8.5:1 and based on that ratio Bitcoins are extremely cheap. Don’t trust this for Bitcoin use, as we could be facing a new decline, but I will still post the Gold/Bitcoin ratio when I can.

They also have a COT report on Bitcoin futures traders positions, and so far not a single commercial trader has taken a single position in any short or long positions.

This speaks volumes as they show no interest in taking any side. The only traders playing with these futures contracts are the speculators which are net short now as they were in the beginning. Even their numbers will not be any help if Bitcoin prices start to flat line.

Bitcoin Takes A Beating Again.

The majority of all Cryptos took another big hit this morning and Bitcoin was no exception. In order for Bitcoin to be in a massive bull market the price eventually has to exceed over $20,000 again.   So far, nothing has indicated that Bitcoin is ready to soar one more time. Yeah, right!  All Cryptocurrencies started from zero, so they can always end up at zero again.  At one time the total capitalization charged up to $736 billion, which has never been breached since. This morning the total capitalization of Cryptos was at $501 billion US dollars.

They took a brief rest during the holidays, but have resumed creating ICOs  at about the same pace. 1465 Cryptocurrenceies are out at this time, with a Gold/Bicoin ratio of 7.86:1. This is close to a rock bottom ratio already, but I must warn readers that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything in the long run. 3:1 is closer to rock bottom, but even than the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything.

I see this all more like a Wild, Wild West show as we have Bitcoin bank robberies, Bitcoin Miner wallet robberies and massive denial of service attacks.

I’m sure that the Crypto coders also have accidental errors in the code to where each Crypto currency can be hacked. The massive Meltdown and Specter chip vulnerability issue just adds to the problems.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin Missing In relation to Mysterious Death of Exchange CEO – Crypto-Faucets.in

They are still hunting the Bitcoins from the “Great Mt Gox Robbery” where I had my Bitcoins at. Their exchange got hacked and Bitcoins disappeared into thin air.

The investors that think that they are investing in Bitcoins must be smoking something, as I would not invest in anything that has so much fraud associated with it.


Bitcoin Intraday Rally Update

This is the February contract. There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. If this doesn’t improve soon I may be forced to stop wave analysis on these charts. In the last day or so, the total Cryptocurrency capitalization base has  gained back about $156 billion. The total Crypto ICOs are sitting at 1448  with no change today.

You may have noticed I used a “W” wave in Intermediate degree, which I will use just as a temporary unknown position. I want to stress the fact that when I use any WXY thinking, then the “W” wave I use has a very strict rule. This rule is that any first “W” wave we think we see “Must” be a single zigzag!  It can’t be a flat,  as a flat would tell us that we are somewhere in a diagonal wave structure.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio also crashed in a spectacular fashion, making Bitcoins very cheap when we use the gold cash price to compare to. Just the shear fact that this Gold/Bitcoin ratio crashed is sending Bitcoin prices northward, at least in the short term.  Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase?  This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control.

Cryptocurrency Bloodbath Update.

Bitcoin bloodbath highlights these defensive cryptocurrency strategies – MarketWatch

During the night the Crypto coins continued with their decline, which some are calling a,  “Bloodbath”.  Maybe it’s just an old fashioned Meltdown and Specter issue!   🙄  They will use all sorts of  fundamental logic reasoning to explain the Crypto meltdown, but in the end it has nothing to do with logic, but has everything to do with our human emotions.

Some say they are still hoarding Bitcoins but would you hang onto Bitcoins if it were to crash to below $5000? The cost of mining a single Bitcoin is around $3300, so Bitcoin can always crash back down to the cost of mining.

On about the 12th of January the entire Crypto ICO capitalization peaked very close to $736+ Billion. Since then over $300 billion of US dollar capitalization has disappeared into thin air. Bitcoins were created out of thin air, and they are now evaporating right back to where they came from. Is this $300 billion, in the lost and found? Nope, no such luck as Cryptocurrencies capitalization goes up in a puff of electronic smoke.

This market is changing very fast and I think more downside is still to come. The last thing I would trust is any wave count, as all this could be just a one hit wonder. After all, did the price of Tulip bulbs keep going higher and higher with the Elliott Wave pattern?

Not only are US dollar values evaporating back into thin air, the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has “dramatically” shifted in the last month or so. This puts Bitcoins close to the extreme cheap side in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio. Even the Gold/Bitcoin ratio should not be trusted at any extreme.

The investors that went into debt to invest in Bitcoins are going to get hit the hardest as they doubled their leveraged. With all this US dollar value disappearing into thin air, it could bring down the financial system as well.  When the markets really start to implode, they could shed $30-$40 trillion by the time the dust settles.

Besides capital values disappearing into thin air the ICO’s on my list should also start to shrink from the peak of 1450.

Crypto Crash! Bitcoin Sinking To New Lows

Early this morning Bitcoin futures chart plunged to a new record low of 11,900. There should be more downside coming, but so far it has been a choppy decline that looks like it may be a diagonal “C” wave. Usually there is a much bigger pattern difference between the “A5” wave and the “C5” wave.  For all this Bitcoin Mania to be in this true blue price bull market that so many claim is going to happen, we need a strong visible zigzag or flat correction.

I won’t even throw out the triangle pattern as any correction will just about do. Sure, a big jump could happen at any time, but Bitcoin seems to be on a downward spiral that nobody knows when it will end. Cryptocurrencies are being attacked around the world so I can see the lack of bullish enthusiasm for the Bitcoin price.

What happened to buying on the dips of this no brainer bull market? After all, isn’t the Bitcoin price supposed to go to a $1,000,000?   Back in the 70s the experts were all forecasting the $2000 gold price, yet it never reached that price level. Instead gold turned into a 20 year bear and a crushed price.

Investors didn’t learn anything at that time and they sure did not learn anything this time.  Most price forecasts are a figment of one’s imagination, as they are just numbers picked out of thin air.

A quick scan of my Crytocurrency list shows the “majority” of all the Cryptocurrencies took major price hits this morning as well. It’s not just a Bitcoin problem.  There are 1450 cryptocurrencies posted, with a total market capital soaring to over $720 billion US dollars. Well, this morning about $140 billion of it went up in electronic smoke. All those investors that just borrowed money to jump into this mania are now holding worthless paper. We can’t even call cryptocurrencies  “paper”, but it still took paper dollars to buy into digital coins. In todays world, it’s electrons that go up in smoke much easier than paper can, at least with paper dollars you can use it as toilet paper once it crashes. These numbers are changing very fast as latter this week $200 billion could be lost. There is a lot of money somewhere in the “Lost and Found” department. Good luck finding it as the, “Pot Of Gold” at the end of the Rainbow contains no digital coins.

Bitcoin Intraday Swan Dive Update.

After a near perfect double top, Bitcoin succumbed to the bears and proceeded to implode. How deep Bitcoin can crash down on this trip remains to be seen, but if the inverted flat has any teeth to it, then the $11, 500 price level will not provide any long term support. All these Cryptos are used for speculation, and it’s only extreme leverage why these Cryptos make such wild moves. I’m not against any speculation, but when markets go down, they produce all sorts of fears. When fear dominates, then irrational decisions become obvious.

Last year saw a massive explosion of different Cryptos coming online, but early in 2018 it seems like new ICOs issues have hit a brick wall.  The last number to beat is 1385, related coin offerings. It will remain to be seen if 2018 remains bullish with many more ICO offerings, but sooner or later the weeding out process will start.

It’s still far too early, for any Gold/Bitcoin ratio calculations to be taken seriously, but spot checking the ratio every few weeks will help.

Bitcoin Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Bitcoin has now moved well past any potential 4th wave rally in Minute degree, which means we have to start another wave count but from a different peak.  Could this present rally turn into the next bullish phase up? It could, but if that’s the case, then we have a long way to go with Bitcoin staying within the two trend lines.

It’s pretty hard to keep bulls caged up just by drawing pretty trend lines, but for any bearish move to continue, the bottom trend line must get sliced.  Also, any $11,500 price level will never hold, as bearish moves always need lower lows, to keep the Bitcoin bears happy. Even now, Bitcoin can produce another major double top, just to make it more miserable to count waves.  Volumes are not really exploding, so interest in Bitcoin futures is not exactly the greatest thing to get all excited about.

From my perspective, Bitcoin and all other Cryptos are just speculative asset classes, that many are calling Bitcoin an “investment”.  Any currency is just a medium of exchange to measure and compare, like any desktop ruler or measuring tape. Buying or owning a bunch of “rulers” has no intrinsic value. Sure, we can have numbers on these currencies, but in reality currencies are constantly shifting in value, but the numbers on the bills never change.

When currencies implode,  they just print something with an extra zero in front of the decimal point, and the semi full of cash can now fit into your basic wheelbarrow.  The longer Bitcoin takes in developing a new direction, the more impatient Bitcoin traders will get.

As of this morning there are now 1384 Cryptos on the list, and when new Crypto issues start to slow down, then this list should stop growing as well. The worst case scenario would be that the Crypto list starts to shrink or stagnate. This week I noticed the first possible sign of stagnation, but that could be just due to the holiday season or even a misprint.  I would like to have more evidence of this potential stagnation, which still could take weeks to clear up.

It now takes 12.26 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which compressed a bit, from the 15.9:1 ratio I once calculated.

Nasdaq And Bitcoin Mania, Two Peas In A Pod

While the Nasdaq gyrates around, and investors have long forgotten the 2009 bottom, then it’s always a good time to look back to the 2009 bottom. 

 Bitcoin Wave Zero, started in July 2010 about 15 months after the Nasdaq  turned around in early 2009. It’s silly to think that this crypto mania  is special or the start of a new era. There is nothing new about it as the markets have crashed when new electronic equipment was installed. 

While there is only one Nasdaq, we can’t say that about the Crypto Mania that’s going on.  Some think there are about 1000 different cryptocurrencies in the process of being created. Shit, that’s far more varieties of cryptocurrencies  than there ever was in different types of Tulips!

We are in a tech driven world, but so was the dotcom boom in 2000.  My bet is that once the Nasdaq starts to turn into a bear market, then Bitcoin will follow right along with it.  A  little 25%,  Nasdaq flash crash will not do it, nor will a 60% retracement do it!  We are going into a bear market that very few investors know that’s coming.

When all the experts are painting you a rosy bull market picture of the future, then “Who is left to get in”?  Like Rick Rules says, “Don’t confuse a bull market with brains”! Only emotional people buy in at the top, and they will run as fast as they can once the markets and Bicoin start to head south again. 

Yes, the pattern from 2000-2009 is ugly, but we know where the 4th wave bottom in Primary degree ended. The 5 waves up in the Nasdaq look like the closest to a well formed impulse that you can find. Many smart contrarians know this market is heading down, but we will never know exactly where it will find the real bottom. If I say the Nasdaq will eventually land at 1300, it will go to 1200 just to prove me wrong. 

Nasdaq can rocket to 8,000 and beyond, says Bank of America analyst – MarketWatch

                                                         This news link is a prime example, how bullish experts are at stock market peaks.

Cboe Bitcoin (USD) Jan 2018 The First Few Days

This Bitcoin futures chart is just a few days old, and it would take weeks for the patterns fill out better. I don’t plan on making Bitcoin as part of my regular postings, but I will comment on Bitcoin about it’s mania status. I made a big mistake starting with a large degree sequence, as Elliott Wave doesn’t work that way. We have a wave zero starting location back in 2010, and we have a maximum of 5 waves in Minor degree.  Even then we may only be in a wave 3 of Minor degree, if it does not implode in the next few weeks.

They figure there will be close to 500 different ICOs (Coin offerings)  by the end of this year. This makes the dot.com bubble of 2000 look pretty tame, when compared to Bitcoin. The only reason Bitcoin is this high is because miners are hoarding Bitcoins.

The Inside Story of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin’s $460 Million Disaster | WIRED

I lost my Bitcoins when raiders hacked the Mt Gox exchange, and I see the same things happening today. Bitcoin bank robberies, hack jobs, and stealing wallets does not work well as an investment platform. I have calculated $3500 price drops in just 4-6 hours, so nobody in their right mind would hold a so called asset class with this much instability. The futures contract above (XBTF8) has seen low interest, as smart futures traders are staying away. 

Bitcoin charts with this contract is different than the Bitcoin charts I have been using as Bitcoin prices from the Coindesk site is heading for another record high.   

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio from about a year ago has surged from about 4:1 to a stunning 14:1 ratio. As of today it takes 14 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. This may even become more insane in the weeks to come. 

Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Zero

So you think it’s a good time to invest in Bitcoin? If you are, then consider the fact that you are getting in after about a  7 year bull market has already played out. In July 2010 Bitcoin started at Wave Zero, and within 7 years has soared about 285,000% or more.  

At this time Bitcoin prices have double topped at about $17,000 US dollars. The big question is, where does this Wave Zero fit into the bigger Elliott Wave sequence?   At one time I used Intermediate degree to count out Bitcoin, but I realized that this was far too high of a degree level to start with. Using too high of a degree, when complete corrections only take 4-10 hours does “Not” fit into any Intermediate degree time scale. 

Even the DJIA took a year or so to finish an Intermediate degree 4th wave correction, so why should the same degree only take hours to play out in the Bitcoin charts?  The plain and simple answer is, it can’t. Bitcoin has to start at a much lower degree level, at a minimum by at least 2 degrees. 

In other words, we could just be in a Minor degree wave 3 top, and Intermediate  degree wave 1 is still far away. $3000 price crashes in just hours does not fit an Intermediate degree move. The 2014 peak would fit better as a wave 1-2 in Minor degree. I show this chart to people  when they ask me about Bitcoin, and I always ask if it is smart to get into Bitcoins with a vertical chart  like this? 

Updated December 10


I thought I would add a candlestick perspective to Bitcoin. It’s a big mistake to think that Bitcoin is on some higher degree level if we don’t consider that Bitcoin started with a wave zero at about 6 cents.  At this posting Bitcoins double topped at about $17,000 is still holding, so if another leg up is to still to come, then the $17,000 price level will not hold. 

This Bitcoin Mania could have already popped which would mean “No More” highs will be coming.  A dozen other Crypto currencies are starting up, and none of them are accountable to anyone. It’s all private money and many are speaking out against this Bitcoin craze! 

The problem is that players in a mania don’t recognize they are in one, because if they did, they would have sold out last week. Greed keeps the players locked into a bull market, until panic sets in.  When the miners or hoarders start to dump Bitcoins all at once, then that $13,000 baseline will not hold. 

As far as I understand there over 16 million Bitcoins made, with a maximum target of 21 million.  This gives the Bitcoin market a 258 billion dollar capital base. Of course, once this Bitcoin bubble does pop, you will see all those billions go up in smoke. If you’re real lucky,  you might find them in the digital pit of hell! 

December, 8, 2017 Bitcoin Mania Review


Trying to put a wave count to Bitcoin is an exercise in futility. The main reason is that the wave degree levels I’ve been using was far too large. Some of these wild Bitcoin moves are happening in 4-10 hours. One move Bitcoin dropped $3000 in just 10 hrs. Any 10 hour time period is not an Intermediate degree by any stretch of the imagining, so I dropped my degree levels a minimum of 2 degrees. My highest degree level now starts at Minute degree. 

Besides the degree level not even being close, there is another problem with the charts. In the downloaded chart above, we have two peaks with one peak ending just a bit above $17,000 per Bitcoin. This pattern is not what we see in real time on the charts, and it’s another reason why any wave counting is futile.  


This chart I clipped from Coindesk, and we can see a double top at $17,000. Everyone knows what a double top can bring, but it will not take too long to see if this double top will hold. My interest in Bitcoin is purely the crowd psychology aspect of it and all the wild stories about Bitcoin losses and robberies. The Bitcoin world is like the “Wild, Wild West 2.0” as every boom cycle attracts all the crooks and scammers as well. This has happened in every mania, I ever looked at, so it’s nothing new from my perspective.

Bitcoin is part of the bigger tech bubble, no different than the tech bubble of the late 1990s. I’m sure Bitcoin will go down in history as the all time greatest mania, ever!  The wild stories coming out about Bitcoin robberies, and massive data overloading, has shut down or crippled Bitcoin trading sites. Online wallets going missing, hard drives thrown away, does not sound like a system that is stable.

Bitcoin miners are hoarding Bitcoins, and they could decide to sell all at once. You can be certain that when they all do decide to sell, the price of Bitcoins will not remain where it is today.   

Money, or Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, a tool to measure something to a piece of paper. That’s just like buying a bunch of plastic rulers, thinking they are an investment. Dozens of private Crypto currencies are coming out, with talk about the Fed issuing “Fedcoin.

Search the internet and you will find this world full of bubbles and manias, which is the most I have ever witnessed.

In the big scope of things we need a huge market correction to wipe out much of this delusional thinking, that is gripping  speculators in late 2017.    

Bitcoin Another Record High At $12,230

I couldn’t help myself but to create a wave count as well.  The specific wave degree may not be the right one at this time, but what followed the “ABC” crash was a diagonal pattern. These diagonals happen in 5th waves, so we have a good understanding where we are, in an Elliott Wave sequence. Just in case there is more upside to come, I used a Primary degree wave 3 as my top. This top hit $12,230 but we have to see if it will hold.

Normally any correction can take Bitcoin back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which puts the $10,000 price level back in the cross hairs. Anywhere between $11,000 and $10,000 would qualify as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

Sometimes it can even go under the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be below $9500! Any more than that and we could be looking at a complete bust of this Bitcoin Maina.


The chart above may be a bit old, but Bitcoin already qualifies as one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Horror stories come out, like the one guy losing millions when he tossed his hard drive.

Bitcoin: Man who ‘threw away’ $140m wants to dig up landfill

Gold company’s stock jumps 1300% after switching to bitcoin | MINING.com

In 2000 gold companies switched into the internet craze just before the markets crashed, and gold soared. Now they are doing the exact same thing. One thing that the Bitcoin crowd does not understand, is that Bitcoin is “NOT” gold. Bitcoin has “NO” intrinsic value.

Right now they are hoarding Bitcoins but the day will come, when the Bitcoin miners start to dump Bitcoins!

Updated Dec, 7, 2017

Bitcoin just keeps on breaking record highs, blasting past and wave count I had.  Our last Bitcoin price was about $15,914.  It is a silly notion when we think that we can pick an exact bubble top. Bitcoin has now started a bit of a correction, but we know not to trust for this price level to hold.   There is a plethora of digital cyrpto currencies coming, so the markets will become swamped, with privately issued money. Even the US government is talking about issuing their own Cyrpto currency. (Fedcoin)

Anybody can buy a Bitcoin Miner and if it contains the right card, you may be lucky to mine one or 2 coins a month.  Majority of Bitcoins are hoarded, and the miners will one day, try and dump them all at the same time.

The Toronto real – estate  scene is a prime example, how people want to dump their holdings all at the same time.  2017 sure looks like the “Year Of The Bubbles”.  In all of  history I have never heard about so many bubbles being active all at the same time.

There is talk about Bitcoin futures, which should give us some better charts,once they come out.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio achieved 12.77:1 today. This means it takes 12.77 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. It used to be that you could buy 2 Bitcoins with one ounce of gold just a year ago.  That is a dramatic change already and that ratio can keep expanding.

Bitcoin Crashes The Nasdaq On November, 29,2017



At $10,000 I was very bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin blew past $10,000, and peaked at about $11,000 before Bitcoin made a dramatic reversal.  Block Chain servers were overloaded and many trades could not be executed. 

Bitcoin plunges $2000 after wild record ride past $11000 – bitcoinmining.shop

Biggest Crypto Exchanges Hit by Delays With Demand Surging – Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Rally, a Rout and Outages on the Exchanges – Bloomberg

“Demand” surge?? It’s more like being locked out and not able to execute any orders at all. I will not spend the time keeping any wave count on Bitcoin, as it moves extremely fast. It is valuable in that Bitcoin is faster, more like running in “Fast forward”  You can bet robots and algorithms had a lot to do with this crash, even though they scan for robots on many sites. 

Today’s low in Bitcoin was close to $9000,  and I’m sure more losses are to come as the rallies in Bitcoin remain bearish. Billions of Bitcoin dollars went up in smoke, fleecing the Millennials in the process.


At the “exact” same time that Bitcoin imploded on November, 29, 2017 the Nasdaq imploded as well. The other indices ignored the Bitcoin and Nasdaq crash and they continued to soar while the Nasdaq was trying to find its footing. The tech sector has the most to lose if the Bitcoin world or Cryptomania can’t mine Bitcoins anymore. 

Bitcoin Mania Hitting $10,000!

I will not keep a wave count with Bitcoin as any mania will just keep crushing  any wave count that we can come up with.  Investing in Bitcoins is a myth as all Bitcoin is, is another vehicle for speculation.  It is used by crooks as blackmail payment, and Bitcoin has been robbed so many times that it boggles the mind.  Hacking Bitcoin seems to be a favorite pastime. If it goes to $10,000 or $20,000 is irrelevant as massive price swings, makes it very unstable for any other use. 

This Bitcoin thing is in a “Mania”  alright,  and the charts below compare Bitcoin to other manias that we’ve had. 



The Tulip Mania is still the king of bubbles, with the Bitcoin running second.  I disagree with the “Tulipomania” time period as 1634-1637 is a more consistent time period.


Crypto Wallet Company Faces More Problems After July Hack – Bloomberg

BitPay Hacked, 5 000 Bitcoins Stolen – CryptoCoinsNews

Bitcoin Mania: The Bitcoin Bubble




Bitcoin Still Breaking Records!

If we want to see a “Mania” then look no further than Bitcoins insane price swings. A new record high of $7454 for one Bitcoin is not normal as nobody in their right mind can do business with an unstable, impossible to touch Crypto currency. Sure, you may see some pictures of Bitcoins but they are not real. 

My opinions about Bitcoin is that it will end just like any other mania will end. It takes large  computer server farms to create Bitcoins and they need massive amounts of cooling water to keep running. It’s getting to the point where creating bitcoins are causing climate change due to the fossil fuels the servers need to keep going.  

It is costing more and more to mine Bitcoins and becomes less profitable. Bitcoins price must keep going higher to justify spending money on maintaining the servers.  Once Bitcoin miners wake up to this fact, Bitcoin will fall and not get up. 

How much would it cost to make Bitcoin worthless? Less than you think…

Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable? | Investopedia

28 Barrels of Oil to Mine a Single Bitcoin