Category Archives: Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin Update Heading Down Again!

Last week Bitcoins made a move down that looks like a zigzag and part of a potential diagonal. I will keep my 4th wave top in Minor degree but, I’m also exploring that the 4th wave can turn into an “A” wave.  Any “B” wave decline from an “A” wave would contain a drop much steeper than anything we see at present.

Sure, I have a very bearish outlook on Bitcoins and all Cryptos but Bitcoins is in a bearish phase from which it may never recover from. I don’t think all those that love Bitcoin don’t even know what a bull market is?   A crash from $20,000 to $6000 in 5-6 weeks is not a bullish phase,  folks!  In order for any asset class to be even close to a bull market, they must consistently display higher lows. Do we see higher lows in the Bitcoin patterns? Not really because Bitcoin “has” to travel well above $20,000 to still be in a bull market.

Some have even declared the Bitcoin correction over, and if it’s over than higher lows show prevail. Since the major top of $20,000 Bitcoin has not created  higher lows that I can see.  They are still pumping out the new ICO’s and we were at 1578 as of this morning. Until that number slows down or even shrinks, then the Bitcoin Mania is still alive.

The total capitalization of the Crypto world is running at $325 billion, and not going anywhere fast. This works out close to about $490 billion that has gone up in smoke! The electrons that are left are buried in a digital graveyard somewhere.

I think Bitcoin will head well below $6000 and then we will run into cost of mining issues. Any analysts should know what happens when the cost of production is much higher than the product you are mining!  Sooner or later all the so called Bitcoin investors  will get tired of Bitcoins not going up and they could also sell out in disgust.

The markets are in turmoil and Bitcoin seems to be doing the same thing.

I may only have the time to look at Bitcoin once a week, because other markets are much more important. The Crypto world is just too small to take down the rest of the world.

Bitcoin Update: Start Of The April Contract

The March Bitcoin Cobe futures contract has stopped working this week, so we must move into the next month of April, 2018.  I can’t go back further than the wave 3 bottom for now, but that may change early next month.  Volume will pickup, but it is so slow that I can’t see anything in the May contract month.  Bitcoin has been hammering up to the $12,000 price level and has now shown its true colors by resuming its bearish trend.

From a potential Minor degree 4th wave top, I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2 count.  This would give us an extended wave 5 decline, but with wave three of the 5th wave would be extended.  From this point forward only the wave 3-4s should play out which would be about 4 more sets.  Each wave 3-4 counter rally will become bigger in degree levels as we progress down.  Sure, this may not work, but it is always the first thing that must get eliminated, forcing us to look for an alternate wave count.

There is no chance for Bitcoin to magically transform back into a bull market, no matter how long you keep Bitcoins in your electronic wallet.  Make no mistake, Bitcoins are considered commodities and the only difference is Bitcoin Miners mine electrons, invisible to the naked eye. When Bitcoins keep crashing in price, then they will approach the cost of mining. I use the $4000 price level for that,  after which we could see Bitcoin miners disappear and go out of business.

Sounds familiar?  It happens all the time in the real metals world, as they all need cheap power to keep running. Bitcoin investors can only bet on one direction, which the Forex crowd has been able to do  since the beginning.

Lack of real short players keeps the Bitcoin patterns rather subdued, with not too many wild reversals. Of course that could start to change.

Right now we have another H&S pattern forming which could be the setup for another downside breakout. Eventually the $6000 price level will also get retraced.

Total Cryptocurrencey capital base is about $328 billion US dollars, down dramatically since the hay days when Cryptos hit $813 billion.

$485 billion US dollars have gone up in smoke in little over 2 months. The pace that new ICOs are coming out is about 11 per week, which should slow down if no new suckers will buy into this Bitcoin madness. The 24 hour Bitcoin volume has also been crushed, so all this does not bode well for Bitcoins prices to soar again.

Even after any 5 wave decline has finished, any Bitcoin charts can start to flat-line never to rise again.

Bitcoin Intraday Update

I have moved the top horizontal line down to the $11,800 price level just so it is viable with this chart, but $12,000 would still be the magic number to break.  The volume related to  these futures contracts is thin to say the least, and I also have to move into the April very soon.  These H&S patterns I’m showing are very bearish signals, as the total capital volume has been crashing for many weeks already.

The speculators, who are the only people playing this Bitcoin contract are net short by a ratio of 1.37:1 which does not help the idea that some super Bitcoin bullish move is just around the corner.  This morning the Bitcoin price took another nosedive,  and all we have to do is wait to see if it retraces into another lower low.

I’m looking for another 3-4-5 wave set, and hopefully we will get some extensions thrown in, to give us a jolly good show.  It’s no longer about a wave count, as there is not enough volume. No volume, no real buyers, and when buyers don’t show up, the price can only go down.  No Tulip buyers showed in February of 1637 and within months the Tulip Mania ended as Tulip prices crashed.

I might not be able to catch the smallest turnings but I will try to catch the bigger reversals.  Bitcoin is “Funny Money”, just like the Super Mario Coins you collect in the video game.

I have spent enough time on Bitcoins for now and something radical must happen to break Bitcoins out of this bearish mode, and simple news events will not do it. Once a bearish trend takes hold, “no” amount of “jawboning” will cause it to change directions.

The Great Bitcoin Crash Of 2018!

One reason that the Bitcoins demise is useful, is that it is a prelude of what may happen in a Primary degree “C” wave decline. The only thing different will be, in that we should get 5 waves down in Intermediate degree. We are also coming to the end of all March contracts and the April contracts are still very sparse, producing poor quality charts. Any new useful charts in the April contracts may only allow me to go back to the February crash bottom of wave 3.

I dislike using trend lines very much, because they are so abused they end up having little meaning. All 4 bearish trend lines are based on the 2 points of the bottom trend line. I mark the $20,000 price peak as an unknown position, and not as an X wave. The center line gives  us an outline of one lower degree, and the 4th top trend line projects where any early resistance may start.

I may be far too optimistic about a $4000 Bitcoin price crash, as both volume and total Crypto capitalization has been crashing dramatically.  I looked at 114 countries and their mining costs, and I only found 27 that had mining costs below $4000.  Once Bitcoin mining costs exceed the cash price of a single Bitcoin, then Bitcoin miners will begin to shut down.

This is not rocket science folks, but basic Mining 101.  The news you may be hearing about this Crypto world being a “New Era” is all bullshit, as those claims have been made at the tops of “every” market bubble since the 1600’s.

My wave 3 in Minor degree could also be an “A” wave, but I will explore that at a later date. The problem with an “A” wave is that I don’t like to see a zigzag correction in a zigzag.  In order for Bitcoins to still be in a bull market, Bitcoins must eventually surpass $20,000 USD again. Bitcoin charts are not giving us higher highs, so there is no chance that we are still in a Bitcoin bull market.

The Bitcoin world has been bleeding red during most of last week, so those are not optimistic indicators. If any good news does not sustain a rally, then that also indicates that Bitcoin is still in a big bearish phase.

Bitcoin Intraday Bear Market Crash Update

At $9200 support for Bitcoin failed, with a downside breakout. Today’s bottom at $8500 was helped by the previous wave two bull market in early February.  Even though these are futures contracts, the wave patterns are not as violent as any real leveraged futures contracts are. Even when Bitcoins are in a diagonal decline, they still have a smooth flow to them.

It took me awhile to see this, but the different flow pattern is due to the fact that the majority cannot directly short Bitcoins. Since Bitcoin future’s came out, the commercial traders still have “NO” positions in either direction. Only the speculators are playing and they have been net short, since the futures started trading. $12,000 was the magic Bitcoin number to beat and Bitcoin refused the challenge to cross that line.  This has produced a major H&S pattern that not to many Bitcoin investors even see. Those that are into Bitcoin and think they are “investing” can’t even read charts, never mind  learning the basics about, what “Technical Analysis” is. “TA” is an invention created back in the 70’s when computers really started to improve in speed.

At this time I’m very confident in saying that Bitcoin prices can fall well below $5000 and even $4000 would not surprise me. At $4000 USD,  Bitcoin is getting close to the cost of producing a single Bitcoin.  This will force many Bitcoin miners to go out of business.

The total Crypto ICO list will start to shrink when this starts to happen. At this time about 10 per week have been added onto the list.

In the last two months or so, Cryptocurrency capitalization has crashed from $829 billion, to $369 billion. $460 billion has evaporated  in an electronic puff of smoke. This shows me there is no real stomach to jump onto the Bitcoin craze when prices are free falling. Talk to any younger Bitcoin investors and chances are good they know little or nothing about “TA”.

My question is, “at what wave count that my wave 5s in Minor degree will end at”?  Bitcoin, which some call “Super Mario Coins”, or “Bitch Coins”, could eventually “flat line”and never rise from the ashes again. Bitcoin is a commodity with no intrinsic value and no amount of denying this fact will change where Bitcoins will end at. The fact that the SEC will force Crypto exchange registration is a good thing, as all the big illegal players need to be weeded out!

Bitcoin Rally Review: $12,000 Or Bust?


Looking for a different perspective, I decided to use the line type settings. With line type settings most of the erroneous spikes disappear or smooth out, and no gaps will show up. Switching between bars and line settings can also change any wave count.

The first thing I saw was that it can work as a diagonal decline. If the crash to that $6000 bottom is a “C” wave, completing wave 3 in Minor degree, then this Bitcoin bear market is not finished yet.  The problem is, where in this 4th wave rally are we?

I don’t have the magic location, but I love the challenge of counting out a set of 5 waves  that may be impulse related. Besides that, this market decline is good practice because we will get the same puzzle again, once the general markets hit their market lows. The only difference will be that the last part of the DJIA decline will be a 4th wave in Intermediate degree, followed by 5 waves in Minor degree.

Over all volumes in Bitcoin trading has been dramatically curtailed, which tells me Bitcoins as an investment is fading fast.

Over 1541 Cryptos are presently posted, with a total capitalization of about $445 billion, US dollars. Since its hay days of 2017, about $275  billion US dollars have gone up in digital smoke, and I’m sure that smoke will keep on coming.

Sheila Bair says bitcoin has no intrinsic value — but neither does the dollar – MarketWatch

This describes my sentiments exactly as most Bitcoin investors don’t even know what “intrinsic” value is.

I like 4th waves, but they can be pretty tough to decipher. I consider 4th waves (up or down) to be the most important wave. Keeping my degree levels low still makes sense, because you will “never” see,  5 waves down in Primary degree on a 90 minute, intraday chart. Even 5 waves down in Intermediate degree may never show up!

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.47:1, and has only come close to this 3 times in the last year. A double or triple top in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio does not bode well for the price of Bitcoins. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not have any forecasting value for Bitcoins, but I’m sure this ratio will shrink much more.  A shrinking or compressing ratio means that you need fewer gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin.

If the rally that has completed was a 4th wave rally, then Bitcoins will crash below $6000. Of course, if we are in a triangle that would drag the time out some more.

I’m very bearish on Bitcoins, and hanging on to them when they can crash $4000 makes no sense to me.  Even after all this starts to play out, then Bitcoins price could flat line, just like Tulips did in 1637!

Bitcoin Futures Bullish Phase Review

Since the February bottom Bitcoin did not inspire great confidence that Bitcoins will soar to new record breaking highs. At about the $11,800 price level Bitcoins seems to be running into a brick wall, but as usual looks can be deceiving. We have a pretty good looking H&S forming, but we also know that many times that markets have soared from this type of setup.

Any diagonal bullish phase can still push Bitcoin higher in the near term, so all hope for this bullish phase to halt is not completely lost.

Higher lows are the signs of a bull market. So in order for Bitcoins fit the description of a conventional bull market, it “must” travel well above $20,000 in the future. Since these futures have started trading no commercial traders have taken any positions in any direction. Only the speculators are playing this market, and they are very pessimistic as they have net short positions.

When the experts talk about investing in Bitcoins then they know nothing about leverage. Being a Bitcoin investor will eventually shred your account as the violent moves can destroy anything in its path.

Crypto Craze Has Hydro-Quebec CEO’s Phone ‘Ringing Off the Hook’ – Bloomberg

Big Bitcoin miners are moving to jurisdictions that have cheaper power.

Any major power outages or some solar flare smashing into the earth can stop the Bitcoin network in its tracks. Are investors running into Bitcoins to sidestep the stock markets?,  but if this is true, then when stocks make another huge bullish move, Bitcoins should crash.

As of this morning 1531 ICOs exist, which works out to about 10 new coin offerings per week. Total capitalization is sitting at $450 billion, down quite a bit from the $730 billion it once had. At one time I swore that the Crypto world was heading to a trillion dollars of capitalization, due to the momentum it had. So far the capitalization trend is smashing up against a brick wall.

Cobe Bitcoin Futures Closing in on $12,000

In the last two weeks the Bitcoin bears have been slaughtered and shredded by the bulls sharp horns. Technically speaking, if Bitcoins are in a true bull market, then it “must” break that magic $20,000 price level again. Why “must” Bitcoins break that $20,000 price level?  Because that’s what bull markets do, and what the EWP teaches us is supposed to happen.

I have drawn 3 conventional trend lines, and which line will get sliced first? At close to $12,000 Bitcoin futures are running into potential resistance created in the 2017 decline.

Anonymous Cryptocurrency Trader Buys $400 Million in Bitcoin | Investopedia

Maybe this Bitcoin price rise is all about the mysterious trader that bought $400 million of Bitcoins when Bitcoins slumped in price. News like that can get all the Crypto fans excited. Bitcoin fever is very infectious, so I had to buy a bunch of fake Bitcoins to touch and hold. I ordered them in from China and show them to people. The reaction on peoples faces when they see the coin is priceless!

I showed the coins to my friends and they all wanted 1 or 2 right away. Anyways, I will be getting more Bitcoin collector rounds. I fully understand that any physical Bitcoins we may see are fakes, but they sure can become great collectors items. The Bitcoins I have contain one Troy ounce of pure copper, (99.99%) plated with a thin layer of gold. How much gold plating that are on these coins is unknown, and they may need to get x-rayed to find out.

Ethereum chief warns cryptocurrencies could ‘drop to near-zero at any time’ – MarketWatch

Any of these Cryptos can go to zero, so a physical fake Bitcoin will look nice up on your wall. The Crypto universe is still growing with about 1548 ICO’s on the list.  So far the total capitalization of the Cryptos peaked at about $512 billion this morning, which was the highest in all of February.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is at 8.63:1 this morning from a peak of over 15:1.

The commercials have not opened a single position long or short since Bitcoin futures started to trade. This tells me there is no interest from the commercial trader’s perspective.  Only the trend chasers are chasing Bitcoins down with their net short positions.

Bitcoin Is The Bear Market Over?

Has the Bitcoin decline stopped and has now returned to a bull market.?  I doubt it, as this present rally is not producing the impulse waves required. Bitcoin definaly sliced through the top trend line so that alone will bump the degree level up by at least one degree.

Iceland to use more energy mining bitcoin than powering its homes | Metro News

Bitcoin mining takes up a massive amounts of electricity and computing power,  where the miners in Iceland consume more power than the entire Icelandic grid needs to run its homes. Many miners are moving to places that have the lowest electricity rates like Quebec.

Even though this rally looks impressive I think Bitcoin can still fall well below $3000 per coin. Of course, this rally could just be coinciding with the stock market rally,  so we will see how long this rally will last once the markets resume their bearish trend. After all it was the Nasdaq bull market that spawned this Bitcoin Mania so Bitcoin Mania can also keep dying right along with the Nasdaq.  A $4000 rally does not make a bull market, but it sure gets the bullish investors excited again,  with the injection of “Hope”. Hope that Bitcoins keep going up in price.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio touched 7.48:1 this afternoon, which is about a 50% crash from its high ratio of 15:1.

The amount of new Cryptos seems to keep going and now registers 1533 ICO’s,  with a total capital base of $467 billion US dollars.

Investors think they can hide Bitcoin gains from the government, but I think this is a big mistake in their thinking. Bitcoins are unstable at best and nobody in their right mind will hold Bitcoins when they start crashing again. Imagine buying a house with the price of $20,000 for a single Bitcoin,  and as soon as you get these Bitcoins they start to crash to $6000 in little more than a month. Bitcoins will crash faster than any real-estate will, so your Bitcoin windfall can turn into a disaster very quickly.

Bitcoin Futures Rally Review

In the last day or so Bitcoin has surged which is not the start of a runaway bull market, but can be a simple inverted zigzag. This grinding bear market has not acted like some fantastic looking flat or zigzag. The moves would be far more violent than we are presently getting.

None of the declines have been sheer vertical drops typical of a C5 wave in a flat or zigzag. I have said in the past that, any asset class that starts from “Zero” can end at “Zero”.

The funny part about this is that the mainstream media is starting to talk like that!

Get Ready for Most Cryptocurrencies to Hit Zero, Goldman Says – Bloomberg

The total Cryptocurrencies numbers have actually dropped in the last few days from 1514 back down to 1506. This number may even decline some more if they keep shelving projects due to lack of interest, bankruptcies, or just too costly to implement.

The Bitcoin ratio is 6.32:1 which is and extreme reading, but who says that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can’t hit 1:1.  One of the lowest readings I have is a ratio of 1.74:1, so any 2:1 ratio would not surprise me. Does this mean that Bitcoins can start into a super bullish phase? I doubt it,  as all Cryptocurrencies can flat line just like Tulips did.

Bitcoin Eradication Program In Progress!

There is little chance that the entire Crypto scene will just suddenly get up and soar to new world records.  Ain’t going to happen! Chances are good Bitcoin will flat line once it crashes well below the $5000 price level. Any lower and it will cost more to mine Bitcoins that what miners can sell it for. They just about need a small nuclear reactor attached to the Bitcoin mining operation to stay profitable.

The bear market pattern in Bitcoins shows nothing that some miracle, “ABC” correction is taking place, so in the long run the wave count could die a slow and painful death.  I have no sympathy for those that are losing their shirt,  as this “mania” was pretty clear from the onset.  We also had enough warnings by mania watchers, that the Bitcoin Mania was out of control.

Pretty soon it will only be worth it for an update once every few weeks as interest in all things Crypto wanes and disappears in the dustbins of history.

Bitcoin Decline Taking A Break?

Last week the Bitcoin slide seems to have come to a halt, at least temporary. Nothing is certain but on Friday Cryptocurrencies jumped by $39 billion, with about 1507 total cryptocurrencies being published. The pace of ICOs seems to be slowing down a bit  with the addition of only one or two ICOs in a week.  If I use trend lines, then I always use them in perfect parallel first, in this case my bottom trend line is the base ending on another spike on Friday.

My wave counts are not trustworthy to say the least, but I see no real switch back to a bull market just yet.  We would need to see a much steeper decline than what we have had so far. So far about $11,520 has been erased from the Bitcoin ledgers, as the world seems to attack this unregulated market. Those people that tell you that Bitcoin is an investment have no clue in what they are talking about as nothing this unstable should be called an investment in the first place.

I ordered in 11 of the fake Bitcoins and I showed my friends my order sheets. They wanted Bitcoins as a novelty item as well, so chances are good I can sell all of them as they will show their Bitcoins to friends as well.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America bar bitcoin buys with a credit card – Business Sector

Bitcoin is under attack on a fronts with most banks no longer willing to allow customers to purchase Bitcoins with their credit cards.

Nothing that has happened after the Bitcoin bubble burst has surprised me one bit, as this Bitcoin Mania could be a one hit wonder! Just in case you just walked out of a cave,  you are witnessing the crash of the biggest mania in market history surpassing even the Tulip Mania  by a long shot.

The Bitcoin Crash Continues

Bitcoin has now reached a new record low with no end in sight just yet. About $50 billion was erased this morning already and there should be more to come. Even though the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has imploded dramatically it still wants to compress some more. This morning it sat at 6.67:1 still up from a record low of 1.74:1.

There is still no sign that Bitcoin will act like a bull market again, as we could have had a one hit wonder like Tulips were. Those that call Bitcoin an investment should read about all the robberies and hack jobs so common within all of the Cryptocurrencies. More than $10,000 has been wiped off the price of a single Bitcoin. I would have to check some more, but they say that it costs about $3300 to mine one Bitcoin. All major countries seem to be cracking down on this unregulated market, which I expect that to continue.

Bitcoin Bear Market And Robberies Continue!


Japan Gets Tougher On All Crypto Exchanges After Coincheck Hack

Masked Gunmen Steal ‘Fortune’ in Bitcoin in UK Robbery – Bitcoinist.com

Coincheck Confirms Crypto Hack Loss Larger than Mt Gox – CoinDesk

Bitcoin – Millennials Fake Gold | Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge


The news about Bitcoin has not been kind as the real state of Crypto coins revels itself.  All these new Bitcoin billionaires are painting a bulls eye on their faces when they openly brag about their wealth they think they have. Bitcoin has been going sideways, and it still can swing in both directions before it decides on a new trend, or to finish an old trend.

Either way it doesn’t look like Bitcoin is going to go “Vertical” any time soon due to the fact that major groups are stealing Bitcoins by hacking, or now home invasions. From my perspective, this Crypto market is the Wild West, where there is no town marshal. Nobody is responsible for what they do so 100’s of millions USD valued Bitcoins have already gone missing, and many more will still disappear.

I visited my bullion dealer who was very open about the fact that gold owners were coming in and dumping their gold holdings to buy Bitcoins. Dumping gold to buy Bitcoins is like chasing Fool’s Gold thinking its real gold.

There are many fake physical Bitcoins being stamped and sold on the open market as my bullion dealer showed me one. I had to have one, so I ordered 6 fake Bitcoin rounds online, which I will use to see the reactions on peoples faces. These fake Bitcoins have a 99.999% pure gold plating on it and I will find someone to get it tested once I take physical possession of the Bitcoins.

This may not happen for several more weeks, but my gut feeling is that I should have ordered twice as many.  I think people love them as novelty items and I want to show them to people before I think about ordering more. My landed cost for a single fake Bitcoin will be about $4 CAD.

Bitcoin Futures Intraday Update:

In my last post I showed an Intermediate degree “W” wave. Well, We could be in another one.   The one main problem I have with counting it as a zigzag pattern is that the A5 and B5 waves are very close to being the same angle.  Real zigzags are far more violent and contain far more diagonals wave structures as well, so for now I will bury the idea of a zigzag.

I believe we could be starting another new set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, but he only way that can even start to get confirmed is when a new Bitcoin low is reached. In other words Bitcoin patterns have to act the part of an impulse.

Markets have a nasty habit of trashing wave counts and opinions, so when this impending wave count goes off the rails, then most of the wave count has to be instantly trashed. The worst thing we can do is carry garbage wave counts with us into the future. The wave patterns should take a little longer to play out, so we have to have a bit more patience as this bear market starts to get serious.

There are now 1491 Cryptos competing to take money from gullible investors, with the total capitalization back up at about 565 billion US dollars.  These numbers shift dramatically and can swing, many billions in just hours. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio is still  compressed at 8.5:1 and based on that ratio Bitcoins are extremely cheap. Don’t trust this for Bitcoin use, as we could be facing a new decline, but I will still post the Gold/Bitcoin ratio when I can.

They also have a COT report on Bitcoin futures traders positions, and so far not a single commercial trader has taken a single position in any short or long positions.

This speaks volumes as they show no interest in taking any side. The only traders playing with these futures contracts are the speculators which are net short now as they were in the beginning. Even their numbers will not be any help if Bitcoin prices start to flat line.

Bitcoin Takes A Beating Again.

The majority of all Cryptos took another big hit this morning and Bitcoin was no exception. In order for Bitcoin to be in a massive bull market the price eventually has to exceed over $20,000 again.   So far, nothing has indicated that Bitcoin is ready to soar one more time. Yeah, right!  All Cryptocurrencies started from zero, so they can always end up at zero again.  At one time the total capitalization charged up to $736 billion, which has never been breached since. This morning the total capitalization of Cryptos was at $501 billion US dollars.

They took a brief rest during the holidays, but have resumed creating ICOs  at about the same pace. 1465 Cryptocurrenceies are out at this time, with a Gold/Bicoin ratio of 7.86:1. This is close to a rock bottom ratio already, but I must warn readers that the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything in the long run. 3:1 is closer to rock bottom, but even than the Gold/Bitcoin ratio may not mean anything.

I see this all more like a Wild, Wild West show as we have Bitcoin bank robberies, Bitcoin Miner wallet robberies and massive denial of service attacks.

I’m sure that the Crypto coders also have accidental errors in the code to where each Crypto currency can be hacked. The massive Meltdown and Specter chip vulnerability issue just adds to the problems.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin Missing In relation to Mysterious Death of Exchange CEO – Crypto-Faucets.in

They are still hunting the Bitcoins from the “Great Mt Gox Robbery” where I had my Bitcoins at. Their exchange got hacked and Bitcoins disappeared into thin air.

The investors that think that they are investing in Bitcoins must be smoking something, as I would not invest in anything that has so much fraud associated with it.


Bitcoin Intraday Rally Update

This is the February contract. There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. If this doesn’t improve soon I may be forced to stop wave analysis on these charts. In the last day or so, the total Cryptocurrency capitalization base has  gained back about $156 billion. The total Crypto ICOs are sitting at 1448  with no change today.

You may have noticed I used a “W” wave in Intermediate degree, which I will use just as a temporary unknown position. I want to stress the fact that when I use any WXY thinking, then the “W” wave I use has a very strict rule. This rule is that any first “W” wave we think we see “Must” be a single zigzag!  It can’t be a flat,  as a flat would tell us that we are somewhere in a diagonal wave structure.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio also crashed in a spectacular fashion, making Bitcoins very cheap when we use the gold cash price to compare to. Just the shear fact that this Gold/Bitcoin ratio crashed is sending Bitcoin prices northward, at least in the short term.  Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase?  This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control.

Crypto Crash! Bitcoin Sinking To New Lows

Early this morning Bitcoin futures chart plunged to a new record low of 11,900. There should be more downside coming, but so far it has been a choppy decline that looks like it may be a diagonal “C” wave. Usually there is a much bigger pattern difference between the “A5” wave and the “C5” wave.  For all this Bitcoin Mania to be in this true blue price bull market that so many claim is going to happen, we need a strong visible zigzag or flat correction.

I won’t even throw out the triangle pattern as any correction will just about do. Sure, a big jump could happen at any time, but Bitcoin seems to be on a downward spiral that nobody knows when it will end. Cryptocurrencies are being attacked around the world so I can see the lack of bullish enthusiasm for the Bitcoin price.

What happened to buying on the dips of this no brainer bull market? After all, isn’t the Bitcoin price supposed to go to a $1,000,000?   Back in the 70s the experts were all forecasting the $2000 gold price, yet it never reached that price level. Instead gold turned into a 20 year bear and a crushed price.

Investors didn’t learn anything at that time and they sure did not learn anything this time.  Most price forecasts are a figment of one’s imagination, as they are just numbers picked out of thin air.

A quick scan of my Crytocurrency list shows the “majority” of all the Cryptocurrencies took major price hits this morning as well. It’s not just a Bitcoin problem.  There are 1450 cryptocurrencies posted, with a total market capital soaring to over $720 billion US dollars. Well, this morning about $140 billion of it went up in electronic smoke. All those investors that just borrowed money to jump into this mania are now holding worthless paper. We can’t even call cryptocurrencies  “paper”, but it still took paper dollars to buy into digital coins. In todays world, it’s electrons that go up in smoke much easier than paper can, at least with paper dollars you can use it as toilet paper once it crashes. These numbers are changing very fast as latter this week $200 billion could be lost. There is a lot of money somewhere in the “Lost and Found” department. Good luck finding it as the, “Pot Of Gold” at the end of the Rainbow contains no digital coins.

Bitcoin Still In A Bearish Phase.

Bitcoin’s price surge looks more like Amazon.com than Pets.com – MarketWatch

There is never any shortage of wild optimism in stories about the perceived Bicoin bull market. The perception that Bitcoin is going to soar is misplaced, as the charts tell us the opposite could be happening. South Koren clampdown on Crypto trading has certainly helped to keep a lid on Bitcoin prices.

CryptoWatch: Cryptocurrencies see $100 billion hit amid South Korean clampdown – MarketWatch

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

With the recent discovery of chip vulnerabilities, across all  platforms, including Apple products. I consider this a huge issue as Meltdown and Spectre seems to allow direct access, to the ram memory of many devices.  I understand it’s a chip problem and many are scrambling to find a fix.

All I can say is, “stay on top of your updates, and update as soon as they are issued”.

My two parallel lines box in a diagonal move, complete with an expanded wave 4 counter rally. I switched this sideways pattern to a potential 4th wave counter rally with the 5th wave presently in progress. This present counter rally could drop like a rock as another zigzag needs to complete the 5th wave. On the count above, I skipped one wave and only labeled the second wave structure in a sequence. When this breaks to the downside we should be getting close to a new wave 1 but in Minuette degree.

Once that is actually confirmed, then we should expect another counter rally that can come back hard, as the bears get into another bear trap. From nearly $20,000 per Bitcoin to our present $14,000 price level, billions of Bitcoin value disappeared in an electronic puff of smoke.

I was dead wrong about new ICOs slowing down, as they took a rest during the holiday season. In the last week ICOs came back with a vengeance.  Hackers and crooks are attacking many Crypto exchanges and billions of Bitcoins disappear. The example of Cryptos taking a $100 billion hit is an example how Bitcoin value can disappear

There are presently 1408 cryptos out, with more still coming. The total capital of all Cryptos just surged past the $700 billion milestone and it sure still seems to have momentum behind it. At this rate the total capital will soon hit a trillion US dollars. Even $700 billion is impressive, which is pretty good for something created out of thin air.

The last thing I will do is create any intraday trade setups as this is what the majority are already doing. Anybody can create mindless numbers and letters in a computer, but knowing what they mean is a different ball game. From my perspective when the EWP is just used for short term trade setups, means they have no clue where the bigger trend is heading. I believe this is a very inefficient use of the EWP.

Bitcoin Intraday Swan Dive Update.

After a near perfect double top, Bitcoin succumbed to the bears and proceeded to implode. How deep Bitcoin can crash down on this trip remains to be seen, but if the inverted flat has any teeth to it, then the $11, 500 price level will not provide any long term support. All these Cryptos are used for speculation, and it’s only extreme leverage why these Cryptos make such wild moves. I’m not against any speculation, but when markets go down, they produce all sorts of fears. When fear dominates, then irrational decisions become obvious.

Last year saw a massive explosion of different Cryptos coming online, but early in 2018 it seems like new ICOs issues have hit a brick wall.  The last number to beat is 1385, related coin offerings. It will remain to be seen if 2018 remains bullish with many more ICO offerings, but sooner or later the weeding out process will start.

It’s still far too early, for any Gold/Bitcoin ratio calculations to be taken seriously, but spot checking the ratio every few weeks will help.

Bitcoin Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Bitcoin has now moved well past any potential 4th wave rally in Minute degree, which means we have to start another wave count but from a different peak.  Could this present rally turn into the next bullish phase up? It could, but if that’s the case, then we have a long way to go with Bitcoin staying within the two trend lines.

It’s pretty hard to keep bulls caged up just by drawing pretty trend lines, but for any bearish move to continue, the bottom trend line must get sliced.  Also, any $11,500 price level will never hold, as bearish moves always need lower lows, to keep the Bitcoin bears happy. Even now, Bitcoin can produce another major double top, just to make it more miserable to count waves.  Volumes are not really exploding, so interest in Bitcoin futures is not exactly the greatest thing to get all excited about.

From my perspective, Bitcoin and all other Cryptos are just speculative asset classes, that many are calling Bitcoin an “investment”.  Any currency is just a medium of exchange to measure and compare, like any desktop ruler or measuring tape. Buying or owning a bunch of “rulers” has no intrinsic value. Sure, we can have numbers on these currencies, but in reality currencies are constantly shifting in value, but the numbers on the bills never change.

When currencies implode,  they just print something with an extra zero in front of the decimal point, and the semi full of cash can now fit into your basic wheelbarrow.  The longer Bitcoin takes in developing a new direction, the more impatient Bitcoin traders will get.

As of this morning there are now 1384 Cryptos on the list, and when new Crypto issues start to slow down, then this list should stop growing as well. The worst case scenario would be that the Crypto list starts to shrink or stagnate. This week I noticed the first possible sign of stagnation, but that could be just due to the holiday season or even a misprint.  I would like to have more evidence of this potential stagnation, which still could take weeks to clear up.

It now takes 12.26 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which compressed a bit, from the 15.9:1 ratio I once calculated.

Bitcoin Futures Update

So, you think that the Bitcoun bear market is over? Short term you may be right, but we could also just get the next leg down. This is the Cobe Bitcoin futures and until more volume shows up in the CME Bitcoin futures, I will stick with the Cobe futures charts. On December the 22nd, Bitcoins bottomed at $11,300, and have now surged back to a $16,500 high.

If the bearish scenario remains true, then this $16,500 price level should hold. Since the peak we had a $9000 drop in 5 days, followed by a $5000 rally in 5 days. This does not sound like a stable platform for any real world application, except for speculation. I will not keep a running wave count, but may wait until short term extremes are reached.

This Crypto Mania thing,  is nothing but pure speculation, and we have been warned over and over about the risks involved.

Heed Warren Buffett’s warning: bitcoin is pure FOMO – MarketWatch

Warren Buffett has been warning us about Bitcoin, and he has seen many Manias in his lifetime.

SEC.gov | Statement on Cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings

The SEC is also warning us about the Cryptocurrency Mania.

The biggest fraud that Bitcoin hype artists are making is that Bitcoin has “intrinsic value”! Bitcoin started out worthless and I’m sure that one day it will return to a “worthless” condition. The crazy notion that, “it’s different this time”, is all pure bullshit.  There have been many “Manias” in the past, and this Bitcoin Mania has a very close resemblance to the Dotcom Mania of the late 1990s.

There are now close to 1373 Cryptos on the list, and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon. When it does, then the weeding out process will start and this crazy Crypto list will start to shrink.

At one time it took close to 16 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which is now sitting around 12.2:1. We have no way of knowing what the extreme cheap side of the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can get to, because this could all just be a, “One hit wonder”. Bitcoins could end up with a flat line, like the Tulip prices did back in the early 1600s.  The cheap ratio I do have is about 1.74:1 which is a far cry away from any 12:1 ratio that we have now.

Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

Bitcoin, Breaking Records On The Way Down

They use the Cobe futures contract for the CME Bitcoin futures. Each contract contains the price of 5 Bitcoins and is always the cash settlement price. They never have to take delivery once the contract expires.

I believe it is the secondary top, that I have that is the real top, followed by a declining  set of 5 wave sequences. I always start with my smallest degree level, which now contains a Miniscule set of 5 waves. Miniscule degree is the bottom of the barrel from a degree stack of 15. I can adjust the degree levels up or down if need be, but right now we would be heading down to a wave 1 in Minor degree which still could take weeks.

Any wave count I produce is strictly experimental in nature, but practicing in counting 5 declining wave structure is like a warmup for the stock markets when they start on their journey south.  I am not an expert on Cryptos by any means, but not counting a declining mania, is too hard to pass up. The new record low that hit this morning is 15,380. We have a long way to go, and at some point in time the pattern must form into a zigzag, flat or triangle “If” another big leg in Bitcoin is to happen.

Bitcoin created all sorts of records on the way up and now is set to make new records on the way down. Either way, we have the potential bursting of Bitcoin Mania,  or it’s just a huge correction. The next weeks and months will tell us more as Bitcoin price moves are very sensitive at this degree scale.

Bitcoin Mania Review

I have no plans to give my readers trade setups regarding any Cyryptocurrencies as there are over 1369 Cyrptos like ICOs out already. Whoever names these asset classes, is very creative as it even puts the Dotcom naming to shame, during the late 1990s tech boom.  In any new Crypto like product launch, it brings out the crooks and scammers, to the point where the FCC is overwhelmed with cases and no longer allows trading, until it has time to investigate.

Without the bull market in the tech sector, this Crypto craze would never have started. If the Nasdaq starts with its huge bear market, I don’t think that these  Bitcoin mining companies will keep going up in price.

I created this wave position last night, but never published it until this morning.  Even though Bitcoin made a price jump, I did not have to change my wave positions. I believe that the spike to $20,000 is not the real top, but that the secondary peak of $19,650 is the real top.  All the wave counting in the world will make no sense if we don’t have a specific position to count from. I realized very early that using a higher degree in any Crypto currency,  gives us a false picture as to the size and scope of this potential bull market.  We are lucky to be anywhere near a wave 1 peak in Intermediate degree, but worse yet Bitcoin could implode and turn to digital dust, joining all the other failed attempts in the digital graveyard.

I call the top a wave “Zero”,  as this could be the  potential start of a Bitcoin bear market.  We don’t know what the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can still do, but two readings were pushing over 15:1. Would you buy one Bitcoin with 15.1 ounces of gold?  Gold has intrinsic value, and is a medium of exchange, which no currency in the world can provide. 10 years from now, what do you think will still be around, Bitcoins or Gold?

Since the list of the new ICOs has exploded, I think it is important to watch this list for when it stops growing, and actually starts to shrink. I’m sure there still has to be a huge,”weeding out” process to come and until we know who is left standing, anything can happen.

CME Launches Bitcoin Futures Contracts


Cryptocurrency and futures speculation is very risky due to the extreme leverage that many futures contract have. The opinions expressed are strictly personal and are not to be considered as any “Buy” or “Sell” recommendations.  Any Elliott Wave positions I show are strictly a best guess, as it could take many years before any real wave pattern could emerge. At this time I know very little about the specs on these contracts, but they contain 5 Bitcoins per contract.

When Bitcoin futures spiked to $20,000, the contract had a $100,000 US dollar value.  For every $1 that one Bitcoin moves up or down, the futures contract jumps up or down by $5. There are stiff margin requirements, especially  when shorting. The good news is that it’s all based on cash settlement prices, which has no underlying impact on Bitcoin prices.  I have no idea how much leverage that they use just yet, but a general reference point would be 5:1 or the price of one Bitcoin.

I will not make Bitcoin commentary a big thing as there are still huge problems with most Cryptocurrencies. The chart below is a bit longer than 5 days old, so any degree levels I do have are very small.


As we can see, the volumes have been extremely low with a huge surge going 300 in a matter of minutes. What we did get tonight is another huge spike to the upside, leaving a huge gap in its wake. Due to the low volume overall, we could get many more gaps open up everywhere. Until this fills out more all gaps will mean little in the big scope of things.  The SP500 also spiked along with Bitcoin futures, but that also can be brushed off as a coincidental event.

When I calculated the Gold/Bitcoin Futures ratio, it worked out to about 15.4. It took 15.4 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. Only once have I recorded anything higher. Still,  we really don’t know where the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can max out at, so we really don’t know if it is in a price bubble even at $20,000

There are currently 1361 Crypto currencies out as of today, but I would expect for the amount of Cryptos to keep growing in the near future.

All Cryptocurrencies | CoinMarketCap

When they stop flooding the markets with Crypto ICOs, then we may get close to our first washout stage.