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Category Archives: Cryptos

Bitcoin Intraday Rally Update

This is the February contract. There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. If this doesn’t improve soon I may be forced to stop wave analysis on these charts. In the last day or so, the total Cryptocurrency capitalization base has  gained back about $156 billion. The total Crypto ICOs are sitting at 1448  with no change today.

You may have noticed I used a “W” wave in Intermediate degree, which I will use just as a temporary unknown position. I want to stress the fact that when I use any WXY thinking, then the “W” wave I use has a very strict rule. This rule is that any first “W” wave we think we see “Must” be a single zigzag!  It can’t be a flat,  as a flat would tell us that we are somewhere in a diagonal wave structure.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio also crashed in a spectacular fashion, making Bitcoins very cheap when we use the gold cash price to compare to. Just the shear fact that this Gold/Bitcoin ratio crashed is sending Bitcoin prices northward, at least in the short term.  Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase?  This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control.

Cryptocurrency Bloodbath Update.

Bitcoin bloodbath highlights these defensive cryptocurrency strategies – MarketWatch

During the night the Crypto coins continued with their decline, which some are calling a,  “Bloodbath”.  Maybe it’s just an old fashioned Meltdown and Specter issue!   🙄  They will use all sorts of  fundamental logic reasoning to explain the Crypto meltdown, but in the end it has nothing to do with logic, but has everything to do with our human emotions.

Some say they are still hoarding Bitcoins but would you hang onto Bitcoins if it were to crash to below $5000? The cost of mining a single Bitcoin is around $3300, so Bitcoin can always crash back down to the cost of mining.

On about the 12th of January the entire Crypto ICO capitalization peaked very close to $736+ Billion. Since then over $300 billion of US dollar capitalization has disappeared into thin air. Bitcoins were created out of thin air, and they are now evaporating right back to where they came from. Is this $300 billion, in the lost and found? Nope, no such luck as Cryptocurrencies capitalization goes up in a puff of electronic smoke.

This market is changing very fast and I think more downside is still to come. The last thing I would trust is any wave count, as all this could be just a one hit wonder. After all, did the price of Tulip bulbs keep going higher and higher with the Elliott Wave pattern?

Not only are US dollar values evaporating back into thin air, the Gold/Bitcoin ratio has “dramatically” shifted in the last month or so. This puts Bitcoins close to the extreme cheap side in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio. Even the Gold/Bitcoin ratio should not be trusted at any extreme.

The investors that went into debt to invest in Bitcoins are going to get hit the hardest as they doubled their leveraged. With all this US dollar value disappearing into thin air, it could bring down the financial system as well.  When the markets really start to implode, they could shed $30-$40 trillion by the time the dust settles.

Besides capital values disappearing into thin air the ICO’s on my list should also start to shrink from the peak of 1450.

Crypto Crash! Bitcoin Sinking To New Lows

Early this morning Bitcoin futures chart plunged to a new record low of 11,900. There should be more downside coming, but so far it has been a choppy decline that looks like it may be a diagonal “C” wave. Usually there is a much bigger pattern difference between the “A5” wave and the “C5” wave.  For all this Bitcoin Mania to be in this true blue price bull market that so many claim is going to happen, we need a strong visible zigzag or flat correction.

I won’t even throw out the triangle pattern as any correction will just about do. Sure, a big jump could happen at any time, but Bitcoin seems to be on a downward spiral that nobody knows when it will end. Cryptocurrencies are being attacked around the world so I can see the lack of bullish enthusiasm for the Bitcoin price.

What happened to buying on the dips of this no brainer bull market? After all, isn’t the Bitcoin price supposed to go to a $1,000,000?   Back in the 70s the experts were all forecasting the $2000 gold price, yet it never reached that price level. Instead gold turned into a 20 year bear and a crushed price.

Investors didn’t learn anything at that time and they sure did not learn anything this time.  Most price forecasts are a figment of one’s imagination, as they are just numbers picked out of thin air.

A quick scan of my Crytocurrency list shows the “majority” of all the Cryptocurrencies took major price hits this morning as well. It’s not just a Bitcoin problem.  There are 1450 cryptocurrencies posted, with a total market capital soaring to over $720 billion US dollars. Well, this morning about $140 billion of it went up in electronic smoke. All those investors that just borrowed money to jump into this mania are now holding worthless paper. We can’t even call cryptocurrencies  “paper”, but it still took paper dollars to buy into digital coins. In todays world, it’s electrons that go up in smoke much easier than paper can, at least with paper dollars you can use it as toilet paper once it crashes. These numbers are changing very fast as latter this week $200 billion could be lost. There is a lot of money somewhere in the “Lost and Found” department. Good luck finding it as the, “Pot Of Gold” at the end of the Rainbow contains no digital coins.

Dogecoin, Not Again!

Dogecoin (DOGE) $0.012558 (3.04%) | CoinMarketCap

The wild speculation in Kryptocurrencies continues, and this issue of a Dogecoin is just a remake or parody of pets.com, from the 2000 tech bubble days. The names may change, but crazy names in manias are pretty common.  People are buying into this mania by taking on debt on their credit cards. They don’t realize that it doubles their risk exposure to capital loss when they buy anything with borrowed money.

As of this morning there are 1419 Cryptos on my list with a total capitalization close to  $705 billion dollars. Not bad for creating something out of thin air. With ICOs exploding in the new year, this mania is far from over. They say Crypto mining can use as much electricity as all the electric cars combined. Electric cars, Internet of Things, and the growing electrical demand from Hemp farming, will put a huge demand on the electrical grid, and failures are bound to happen.

No way should you treat anything I talk about as investment advice, as any Crypto is about pure speculation and not investing.

Bitcoin Still In A Bearish Phase.

Bitcoin’s price surge looks more like Amazon.com than Pets.com – MarketWatch

There is never any shortage of wild optimism in stories about the perceived Bicoin bull market. The perception that Bitcoin is going to soar is misplaced, as the charts tell us the opposite could be happening. South Koren clampdown on Crypto trading has certainly helped to keep a lid on Bitcoin prices.

CryptoWatch: Cryptocurrencies see $100 billion hit amid South Korean clampdown – MarketWatch

Meltdown and Spectre: what you need to know – Malwarebytes Labs | Malwarebytes Labs

With the recent discovery of chip vulnerabilities, across all  platforms, including Apple products. I consider this a huge issue as Meltdown and Spectre seems to allow direct access, to the ram memory of many devices.  I understand it’s a chip problem and many are scrambling to find a fix.

All I can say is, “stay on top of your updates, and update as soon as they are issued”.

My two parallel lines box in a diagonal move, complete with an expanded wave 4 counter rally. I switched this sideways pattern to a potential 4th wave counter rally with the 5th wave presently in progress. This present counter rally could drop like a rock as another zigzag needs to complete the 5th wave. On the count above, I skipped one wave and only labeled the second wave structure in a sequence. When this breaks to the downside we should be getting close to a new wave 1 but in Minuette degree.

Once that is actually confirmed, then we should expect another counter rally that can come back hard, as the bears get into another bear trap. From nearly $20,000 per Bitcoin to our present $14,000 price level, billions of Bitcoin value disappeared in an electronic puff of smoke.

I was dead wrong about new ICOs slowing down, as they took a rest during the holiday season. In the last week ICOs came back with a vengeance.  Hackers and crooks are attacking many Crypto exchanges and billions of Bitcoins disappear. The example of Cryptos taking a $100 billion hit is an example how Bitcoin value can disappear

There are presently 1408 cryptos out, with more still coming. The total capital of all Cryptos just surged past the $700 billion milestone and it sure still seems to have momentum behind it. At this rate the total capital will soon hit a trillion US dollars. Even $700 billion is impressive, which is pretty good for something created out of thin air.

The last thing I will do is create any intraday trade setups as this is what the majority are already doing. Anybody can create mindless numbers and letters in a computer, but knowing what they mean is a different ball game. From my perspective when the EWP is just used for short term trade setups, means they have no clue where the bigger trend is heading. I believe this is a very inefficient use of the EWP.

Bitcoin Intraday Swan Dive Update.

After a near perfect double top, Bitcoin succumbed to the bears and proceeded to implode. How deep Bitcoin can crash down on this trip remains to be seen, but if the inverted flat has any teeth to it, then the $11, 500 price level will not provide any long term support. All these Cryptos are used for speculation, and it’s only extreme leverage why these Cryptos make such wild moves. I’m not against any speculation, but when markets go down, they produce all sorts of fears. When fear dominates, then irrational decisions become obvious.

Last year saw a massive explosion of different Cryptos coming online, but early in 2018 it seems like new ICOs issues have hit a brick wall.  The last number to beat is 1385, related coin offerings. It will remain to be seen if 2018 remains bullish with many more ICO offerings, but sooner or later the weeding out process will start.

It’s still far too early, for any Gold/Bitcoin ratio calculations to be taken seriously, but spot checking the ratio every few weeks will help.

Bitcoin Intraday Bullish Phase Update

Bitcoin has now moved well past any potential 4th wave rally in Minute degree, which means we have to start another wave count but from a different peak.  Could this present rally turn into the next bullish phase up? It could, but if that’s the case, then we have a long way to go with Bitcoin staying within the two trend lines.

It’s pretty hard to keep bulls caged up just by drawing pretty trend lines, but for any bearish move to continue, the bottom trend line must get sliced.  Also, any $11,500 price level will never hold, as bearish moves always need lower lows, to keep the Bitcoin bears happy. Even now, Bitcoin can produce another major double top, just to make it more miserable to count waves.  Volumes are not really exploding, so interest in Bitcoin futures is not exactly the greatest thing to get all excited about.

From my perspective, Bitcoin and all other Cryptos are just speculative asset classes, that many are calling Bitcoin an “investment”.  Any currency is just a medium of exchange to measure and compare, like any desktop ruler or measuring tape. Buying or owning a bunch of “rulers” has no intrinsic value. Sure, we can have numbers on these currencies, but in reality currencies are constantly shifting in value, but the numbers on the bills never change.

When currencies implode,  they just print something with an extra zero in front of the decimal point, and the semi full of cash can now fit into your basic wheelbarrow.  The longer Bitcoin takes in developing a new direction, the more impatient Bitcoin traders will get.

As of this morning there are now 1384 Cryptos on the list, and when new Crypto issues start to slow down, then this list should stop growing as well. The worst case scenario would be that the Crypto list starts to shrink or stagnate. This week I noticed the first possible sign of stagnation, but that could be just due to the holiday season or even a misprint.  I would like to have more evidence of this potential stagnation, which still could take weeks to clear up.

It now takes 12.26 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which compressed a bit, from the 15.9:1 ratio I once calculated.

Bitcoin Futures Update

So, you think that the Bitcoun bear market is over? Short term you may be right, but we could also just get the next leg down. This is the Cobe Bitcoin futures and until more volume shows up in the CME Bitcoin futures, I will stick with the Cobe futures charts. On December the 22nd, Bitcoins bottomed at $11,300, and have now surged back to a $16,500 high.

If the bearish scenario remains true, then this $16,500 price level should hold. Since the peak we had a $9000 drop in 5 days, followed by a $5000 rally in 5 days. This does not sound like a stable platform for any real world application, except for speculation. I will not keep a running wave count, but may wait until short term extremes are reached.

This Crypto Mania thing,  is nothing but pure speculation, and we have been warned over and over about the risks involved.

Heed Warren Buffett’s warning: bitcoin is pure FOMO – MarketWatch

Warren Buffett has been warning us about Bitcoin, and he has seen many Manias in his lifetime.

SEC.gov | Statement on Cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings

The SEC is also warning us about the Cryptocurrency Mania.

The biggest fraud that Bitcoin hype artists are making is that Bitcoin has “intrinsic value”! Bitcoin started out worthless and I’m sure that one day it will return to a “worthless” condition. The crazy notion that, “it’s different this time”, is all pure bullshit.  There have been many “Manias” in the past, and this Bitcoin Mania has a very close resemblance to the Dotcom Mania of the late 1990s.

There are now close to 1373 Cryptos on the list, and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon. When it does, then the weeding out process will start and this crazy Crypto list will start to shrink.

At one time it took close to 16 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which is now sitting around 12.2:1. We have no way of knowing what the extreme cheap side of the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can get to, because this could all just be a, “One hit wonder”. Bitcoins could end up with a flat line, like the Tulip prices did back in the early 1600s.  The cheap ratio I do have is about 1.74:1 which is a far cry away from any 12:1 ratio that we have now.

Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

Bitcoin, Breaking Records On The Way Down

They use the Cobe futures contract for the CME Bitcoin futures. Each contract contains the price of 5 Bitcoins and is always the cash settlement price. They never have to take delivery once the contract expires.

I believe it is the secondary top, that I have that is the real top, followed by a declining  set of 5 wave sequences. I always start with my smallest degree level, which now contains a Miniscule set of 5 waves. Miniscule degree is the bottom of the barrel from a degree stack of 15. I can adjust the degree levels up or down if need be, but right now we would be heading down to a wave 1 in Minor degree which still could take weeks.

Any wave count I produce is strictly experimental in nature, but practicing in counting 5 declining wave structure is like a warmup for the stock markets when they start on their journey south.  I am not an expert on Cryptos by any means, but not counting a declining mania, is too hard to pass up. The new record low that hit this morning is 15,380. We have a long way to go, and at some point in time the pattern must form into a zigzag, flat or triangle “If” another big leg in Bitcoin is to happen.

Bitcoin created all sorts of records on the way up and now is set to make new records on the way down. Either way, we have the potential bursting of Bitcoin Mania,  or it’s just a huge correction. The next weeks and months will tell us more as Bitcoin price moves are very sensitive at this degree scale.

Bitcoin Mania Review

I have no plans to give my readers trade setups regarding any Cyryptocurrencies as there are over 1369 Cyrptos like ICOs out already. Whoever names these asset classes, is very creative as it even puts the Dotcom naming to shame, during the late 1990s tech boom.  In any new Crypto like product launch, it brings out the crooks and scammers, to the point where the FCC is overwhelmed with cases and no longer allows trading, until it has time to investigate.

Without the bull market in the tech sector, this Crypto craze would never have started. If the Nasdaq starts with its huge bear market, I don’t think that these  Bitcoin mining companies will keep going up in price.

I created this wave position last night, but never published it until this morning.  Even though Bitcoin made a price jump, I did not have to change my wave positions. I believe that the spike to $20,000 is not the real top, but that the secondary peak of $19,650 is the real top.  All the wave counting in the world will make no sense if we don’t have a specific position to count from. I realized very early that using a higher degree in any Crypto currency,  gives us a false picture as to the size and scope of this potential bull market.  We are lucky to be anywhere near a wave 1 peak in Intermediate degree, but worse yet Bitcoin could implode and turn to digital dust, joining all the other failed attempts in the digital graveyard.

I call the top a wave “Zero”,  as this could be the  potential start of a Bitcoin bear market.  We don’t know what the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can still do, but two readings were pushing over 15:1. Would you buy one Bitcoin with 15.1 ounces of gold?  Gold has intrinsic value, and is a medium of exchange, which no currency in the world can provide. 10 years from now, what do you think will still be around, Bitcoins or Gold?

Since the list of the new ICOs has exploded, I think it is important to watch this list for when it stops growing, and actually starts to shrink. I’m sure there still has to be a huge,”weeding out” process to come and until we know who is left standing, anything can happen.

CME Launches Bitcoin Futures Contracts

 

Cryptocurrency and futures speculation is very risky due to the extreme leverage that many futures contract have. The opinions expressed are strictly personal and are not to be considered as any “Buy” or “Sell” recommendations.  Any Elliott Wave positions I show are strictly a best guess, as it could take many years before any real wave pattern could emerge. At this time I know very little about the specs on these contracts, but they contain 5 Bitcoins per contract.

When Bitcoin futures spiked to $20,000, the contract had a $100,000 US dollar value.  For every $1 that one Bitcoin moves up or down, the futures contract jumps up or down by $5. There are stiff margin requirements, especially  when shorting. The good news is that it’s all based on cash settlement prices, which has no underlying impact on Bitcoin prices.  I have no idea how much leverage that they use just yet, but a general reference point would be 5:1 or the price of one Bitcoin.

I will not make Bitcoin commentary a big thing as there are still huge problems with most Cryptocurrencies. The chart below is a bit longer than 5 days old, so any degree levels I do have are very small.

 

As we can see, the volumes have been extremely low with a huge surge going 300 in a matter of minutes. What we did get tonight is another huge spike to the upside, leaving a huge gap in its wake. Due to the low volume overall, we could get many more gaps open up everywhere. Until this fills out more all gaps will mean little in the big scope of things.  The SP500 also spiked along with Bitcoin futures, but that also can be brushed off as a coincidental event.

When I calculated the Gold/Bitcoin Futures ratio, it worked out to about 15.4. It took 15.4 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. Only once have I recorded anything higher. Still,  we really don’t know where the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can max out at, so we really don’t know if it is in a price bubble even at $20,000

There are currently 1361 Crypto currencies out as of today, but I would expect for the amount of Cryptos to keep growing in the near future.

All Cryptocurrencies | CoinMarketCap

When they stop flooding the markets with Crypto ICOs, then we may get close to our first washout stage.

Potcoin

 

The Crypto scene is up to about 951 so called Cryptocurrencies at this time. It is impossible for me to cover all of them in great detail, and I have no plans on doing so.  Any comments I do have, are strictly personal opinions and should never be taken as investment advice or perceived as a “Buy” or “Sell” recommendation.

Anything in Futures, Forex and now Crypto trading involves high risks due to the extreme leverage that Forex and Futures trading contains. It seems that Cyrptocurrency trading is also extremely leveraged, but until we look at it, one Crypto currency at a time, we will never really know the amount of leverage in each Crypto. Yes, I call it all a “Mania” but that doesn’t necessarily mean, that they are in price bubbles just yet. They also had “Forex Mania” when it started so, “Crypto Mania” is nothing really all that new. One of the best manias was the Dotcom Mania of the late 1990s, until they realized that the majority of IPO’s could never make any money.  There was another mania in the late 1990s, that very few people remember. It was constantly broadcasted and saw headline status until about 2001. Remember the mania that Y2K fears created? Not too many people do.  

Banking For The Cannabis Industry – Digital Currency | PotCoin.com

I made the big mistake of looking at the Crypto world with a rather high Elliott Wave degree level. This can’t happen because all Cryptos started from a Wave Zero location, making Potcoins just about 4 years old.  This is the Potcoin price in US dollars, and there are issues with its development as much of Potcoin is used for person to person exchanges.  They figure Potcoin will be used to make payments between growers and sellers as well. If there is anything to this Potcoin, like a bull market yet to come, then Potcoin should create more vertical moves in the years ahead.

In this case I used Minute degree wave 3-4 as my starting point, and it should eventually keep on producing higher lows.  With a Minute degree start, we still have a full 5 degree levels to use up before we reach a Minor degree wave 1. So many Cryptos can fail and when that happens the chart patterns would Flatline!

Quebec seems to be a hot place for pot related activities, with growing operations also being set up. Potcoin seems to be started in Quebec as well. I do have real money positions in two pot related stocks,  and I own two gold ETF related positions as well.

I’m not against speculation or all Cryptos, as I do own some Goldmoney. I still may create postings for Oilcoin and Goldmoney which have commodity related themes to them.

Some people I meet want to jump on the pot bandwagon, but when you ask them how serious they are, I find they don’t even have an open trading account.  These people are far too late, or far too slow getting into the game, as they get their information from people around them or the news on tv. Pot related IPOs in Canada have been around for a few years already, but picking the right one before it goes vertical is always a “Crapshoot”.

Litecoin Mania, Vertical Spike Review

Litecoin started in April 2013 at Wave Zero, it then created a long base, and then a race to the top of about $320. A euphoric  vertical spike is either a time for a big correction, or the end of the entire hype.  One big mistake that wave analysts are making is that they are using a too high of a degree. For LTC being more than sheer speculation, we would have to see another spike to the downside. 

I have no issue with anyone speculating, but investing in Cryptos is the dangerous part.  Chasing a bull market always will lead to pain as we end up paying insanely elevated prices. The Crypto hype has been intense to say the least, and we would need a correction deep enough where the bearish news becomes intense. You can’t have a bull market without a bearish correction once in  awhile.  Many are calling Crptos Gold 2.0,  but this is the furthest from the truth. The Gold/Crypto ratios tell us that. I use Goldmoney which is backed by gold and we know gold has seen some bearish news lately. 

Cryptos is all about technology, and their rise matched the Nasdaq rise perfectly. If all the Cryptos, decline along with stocks, then that’s pretty good evidence that Cryptos are going to suffer some pain. Bull markets attract  crooks and scammers, which the Crypto world has plenty of stories out to confirm this. 

Nasdaq And Bitcoin Mania, Two Peas In A Pod

While the Nasdaq gyrates around, and investors have long forgotten the 2009 bottom, then it’s always a good time to look back to the 2009 bottom. 

 Bitcoin Wave Zero, started in July 2010 about 15 months after the Nasdaq  turned around in early 2009. It’s silly to think that this crypto mania  is special or the start of a new era. There is nothing new about it as the markets have crashed when new electronic equipment was installed. 

While there is only one Nasdaq, we can’t say that about the Crypto Mania that’s going on.  Some think there are about 1000 different cryptocurrencies in the process of being created. Shit, that’s far more varieties of cryptocurrencies  than there ever was in different types of Tulips!

We are in a tech driven world, but so was the dotcom boom in 2000.  My bet is that once the Nasdaq starts to turn into a bear market, then Bitcoin will follow right along with it.  A  little 25%,  Nasdaq flash crash will not do it, nor will a 60% retracement do it!  We are going into a bear market that very few investors know that’s coming.

When all the experts are painting you a rosy bull market picture of the future, then “Who is left to get in”?  Like Rick Rules says, “Don’t confuse a bull market with brains”! Only emotional people buy in at the top, and they will run as fast as they can once the markets and Bicoin start to head south again. 

Yes, the pattern from 2000-2009 is ugly, but we know where the 4th wave bottom in Primary degree ended. The 5 waves up in the Nasdaq look like the closest to a well formed impulse that you can find. Many smart contrarians know this market is heading down, but we will never know exactly where it will find the real bottom. If I say the Nasdaq will eventually land at 1300, it will go to 1200 just to prove me wrong. 

Nasdaq can rocket to 8,000 and beyond, says Bank of America analyst – MarketWatch

                                                         This news link is a prime example, how bullish experts are at stock market peaks.

Cboe Bitcoin (USD) Jan 2018 The First Few Days

This Bitcoin futures chart is just a few days old, and it would take weeks for the patterns fill out better. I don’t plan on making Bitcoin as part of my regular postings, but I will comment on Bitcoin about it’s mania status. I made a big mistake starting with a large degree sequence, as Elliott Wave doesn’t work that way. We have a wave zero starting location back in 2010, and we have a maximum of 5 waves in Minor degree.  Even then we may only be in a wave 3 of Minor degree, if it does not implode in the next few weeks.

They figure there will be close to 500 different ICOs (Coin offerings)  by the end of this year. This makes the dot.com bubble of 2000 look pretty tame, when compared to Bitcoin. The only reason Bitcoin is this high is because miners are hoarding Bitcoins.

The Inside Story of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin’s $460 Million Disaster | WIRED

I lost my Bitcoins when raiders hacked the Mt Gox exchange, and I see the same things happening today. Bitcoin bank robberies, hack jobs, and stealing wallets does not work well as an investment platform. I have calculated $3500 price drops in just 4-6 hours, so nobody in their right mind would hold a so called asset class with this much instability. The futures contract above (XBTF8) has seen low interest, as smart futures traders are staying away. 

Bitcoin charts with this contract is different than the Bitcoin charts I have been using as Bitcoin prices from the Coindesk site is heading for another record high.   

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio from about a year ago has surged from about 4:1 to a stunning 14:1 ratio. As of today it takes 14 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin. This may even become more insane in the weeks to come. 

Bitcoin: Elliott Wave Zero

So you think it’s a good time to invest in Bitcoin? If you are, then consider the fact that you are getting in after about a  7 year bull market has already played out. In July 2010 Bitcoin started at Wave Zero, and within 7 years has soared about 285,000% or more.  

At this time Bitcoin prices have double topped at about $17,000 US dollars. The big question is, where does this Wave Zero fit into the bigger Elliott Wave sequence?   At one time I used Intermediate degree to count out Bitcoin, but I realized that this was far too high of a degree level to start with. Using too high of a degree, when complete corrections only take 4-10 hours does “Not” fit into any Intermediate degree time scale. 

Even the DJIA took a year or so to finish an Intermediate degree 4th wave correction, so why should the same degree only take hours to play out in the Bitcoin charts?  The plain and simple answer is, it can’t. Bitcoin has to start at a much lower degree level, at a minimum by at least 2 degrees. 

In other words, we could just be in a Minor degree wave 3 top, and Intermediate  degree wave 1 is still far away. $3000 price crashes in just hours does not fit an Intermediate degree move. The 2014 peak would fit better as a wave 1-2 in Minor degree. I show this chart to people  when they ask me about Bitcoin, and I always ask if it is smart to get into Bitcoins with a vertical chart  like this? 

Updated December 10

 

I thought I would add a candlestick perspective to Bitcoin. It’s a big mistake to think that Bitcoin is on some higher degree level if we don’t consider that Bitcoin started with a wave zero at about 6 cents.  At this posting Bitcoins double topped at about $17,000 is still holding, so if another leg up is to still to come, then the $17,000 price level will not hold. 

This Bitcoin Mania could have already popped which would mean “No More” highs will be coming.  A dozen other Crypto currencies are starting up, and none of them are accountable to anyone. It’s all private money and many are speaking out against this Bitcoin craze! 

The problem is that players in a mania don’t recognize they are in one, because if they did, they would have sold out last week. Greed keeps the players locked into a bull market, until panic sets in.  When the miners or hoarders start to dump Bitcoins all at once, then that $13,000 baseline will not hold. 

As far as I understand there over 16 million Bitcoins made, with a maximum target of 21 million.  This gives the Bitcoin market a 258 billion dollar capital base. Of course, once this Bitcoin bubble does pop, you will see all those billions go up in smoke. If you’re real lucky,  you might find them in the digital pit of hell! 

December, 8, 2017 Bitcoin Mania Review

 

Trying to put a wave count to Bitcoin is an exercise in futility. The main reason is that the wave degree levels I’ve been using was far too large. Some of these wild Bitcoin moves are happening in 4-10 hours. One move Bitcoin dropped $3000 in just 10 hrs. Any 10 hour time period is not an Intermediate degree by any stretch of the imagining, so I dropped my degree levels a minimum of 2 degrees. My highest degree level now starts at Minute degree. 

Besides the degree level not even being close, there is another problem with the charts. In the downloaded chart above, we have two peaks with one peak ending just a bit above $17,000 per Bitcoin. This pattern is not what we see in real time on the charts, and it’s another reason why any wave counting is futile.  

 

This chart I clipped from Coindesk, and we can see a double top at $17,000. Everyone knows what a double top can bring, but it will not take too long to see if this double top will hold. My interest in Bitcoin is purely the crowd psychology aspect of it and all the wild stories about Bitcoin losses and robberies. The Bitcoin world is like the “Wild, Wild West 2.0” as every boom cycle attracts all the crooks and scammers as well. This has happened in every mania, I ever looked at, so it’s nothing new from my perspective.

Bitcoin is part of the bigger tech bubble, no different than the tech bubble of the late 1990s. I’m sure Bitcoin will go down in history as the all time greatest mania, ever!  The wild stories coming out about Bitcoin robberies, and massive data overloading, has shut down or crippled Bitcoin trading sites. Online wallets going missing, hard drives thrown away, does not sound like a system that is stable.

Bitcoin miners are hoarding Bitcoins, and they could decide to sell all at once. You can be certain that when they all do decide to sell, the price of Bitcoins will not remain where it is today.   

Money, or Bitcoin is just a medium of exchange, a tool to measure something to a piece of paper. That’s just like buying a bunch of plastic rulers, thinking they are an investment. Dozens of private Crypto currencies are coming out, with talk about the Fed issuing “Fedcoin.

Search the internet and you will find this world full of bubbles and manias, which is the most I have ever witnessed.

In the big scope of things we need a huge market correction to wipe out much of this delusional thinking, that is gripping  speculators in late 2017.    

Bitcoin Another Record High At $12,230

I couldn’t help myself but to create a wave count as well.  The specific wave degree may not be the right one at this time, but what followed the “ABC” crash was a diagonal pattern. These diagonals happen in 5th waves, so we have a good understanding where we are, in an Elliott Wave sequence. Just in case there is more upside to come, I used a Primary degree wave 3 as my top. This top hit $12,230 but we have to see if it will hold.

Normally any correction can take Bitcoin back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which puts the $10,000 price level back in the cross hairs. Anywhere between $11,000 and $10,000 would qualify as the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

Sometimes it can even go under the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be below $9500! Any more than that and we could be looking at a complete bust of this Bitcoin Maina.

 

The chart above may be a bit old, but Bitcoin already qualifies as one of the biggest bubbles ever!

Horror stories come out, like the one guy losing millions when he tossed his hard drive.

Bitcoin: Man who ‘threw away’ $140m wants to dig up landfill

Gold company’s stock jumps 1300% after switching to bitcoin | MINING.com

In 2000 gold companies switched into the internet craze just before the markets crashed, and gold soared. Now they are doing the exact same thing. One thing that the Bitcoin crowd does not understand, is that Bitcoin is “NOT” gold. Bitcoin has “NO” intrinsic value.

Right now they are hoarding Bitcoins but the day will come, when the Bitcoin miners start to dump Bitcoins!


Updated Dec, 7, 2017

Bitcoin just keeps on breaking record highs, blasting past and wave count I had.  Our last Bitcoin price was about $15,914.  It is a silly notion when we think that we can pick an exact bubble top. Bitcoin has now started a bit of a correction, but we know not to trust for this price level to hold.   There is a plethora of digital cyrpto currencies coming, so the markets will become swamped, with privately issued money. Even the US government is talking about issuing their own Cyrpto currency. (Fedcoin)

Anybody can buy a Bitcoin Miner and if it contains the right card, you may be lucky to mine one or 2 coins a month.  Majority of Bitcoins are hoarded, and the miners will one day, try and dump them all at the same time.

The Toronto real – estate  scene is a prime example, how people want to dump their holdings all at the same time.  2017 sure looks like the “Year Of The Bubbles”.  In all of  history I have never heard about so many bubbles being active all at the same time.

There is talk about Bitcoin futures, which should give us some better charts,once they come out.

The Gold/Bitcoin ratio achieved 12.77:1 today. This means it takes 12.77 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. It used to be that you could buy 2 Bitcoins with one ounce of gold just a year ago.  That is a dramatic change already and that ratio can keep expanding.

Bitcoin Crashes The Nasdaq On November, 29,2017

 

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At $10,000 I was very bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin blew past $10,000, and peaked at about $11,000 before Bitcoin made a dramatic reversal.  Block Chain servers were overloaded and many trades could not be executed. 

Bitcoin plunges $2000 after wild record ride past $11000 – bitcoinmining.shop

Biggest Crypto Exchanges Hit by Delays With Demand Surging – Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Rally, a Rout and Outages on the Exchanges – Bloomberg

“Demand” surge?? It’s more like being locked out and not able to execute any orders at all. I will not spend the time keeping any wave count on Bitcoin, as it moves extremely fast. It is valuable in that Bitcoin is faster, more like running in “Fast forward”  You can bet robots and algorithms had a lot to do with this crash, even though they scan for robots on many sites. 

Today’s low in Bitcoin was close to $9000,  and I’m sure more losses are to come as the rallies in Bitcoin remain bearish. Billions of Bitcoin dollars went up in smoke, fleecing the Millennials in the process.

 

At the “exact” same time that Bitcoin imploded on November, 29, 2017 the Nasdaq imploded as well. The other indices ignored the Bitcoin and Nasdaq crash and they continued to soar while the Nasdaq was trying to find its footing. The tech sector has the most to lose if the Bitcoin world or Cryptomania can’t mine Bitcoins anymore. 

Bitcoin Mania Hitting $10,000!

I will not keep a wave count with Bitcoin as any mania will just keep crushing  any wave count that we can come up with.  Investing in Bitcoins is a myth as all Bitcoin is, is another vehicle for speculation.  It is used by crooks as blackmail payment, and Bitcoin has been robbed so many times that it boggles the mind.  Hacking Bitcoin seems to be a favorite pastime. If it goes to $10,000 or $20,000 is irrelevant as massive price swings, makes it very unstable for any other use. 

This Bitcoin thing is in a “Mania”  alright,  and the charts below compare Bitcoin to other manias that we’ve had. 

 

 

The Tulip Mania is still the king of bubbles, with the Bitcoin running second.  I disagree with the “Tulipomania” time period as 1634-1637 is a more consistent time period.

 

Crypto Wallet Company Faces More Problems After July Hack – Bloomberg

BitPay Hacked, 5 000 Bitcoins Stolen – CryptoCoinsNews

Bitcoin Mania: The Bitcoin Bubble

 

 

 

Bitcoin Still Breaking Records!

If we want to see a “Mania” then look no further than Bitcoins insane price swings. A new record high of $7454 for one Bitcoin is not normal as nobody in their right mind can do business with an unstable, impossible to touch Crypto currency. Sure, you may see some pictures of Bitcoins but they are not real. 

My opinions about Bitcoin is that it will end just like any other mania will end. It takes large  computer server farms to create Bitcoins and they need massive amounts of cooling water to keep running. It’s getting to the point where creating bitcoins are causing climate change due to the fossil fuels the servers need to keep going.  

It is costing more and more to mine Bitcoins and becomes less profitable. Bitcoins price must keep going higher to justify spending money on maintaining the servers.  Once Bitcoin miners wake up to this fact, Bitcoin will fall and not get up. 

How much would it cost to make Bitcoin worthless? Less than you think…

Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable? | Investopedia

28 Barrels of Oil to Mine a Single Bitcoin

 

 

Bitcoin And Tulip Crash Review

Dimon calls bitcoin ‘a fraud’ and may have delivered the biggest blow to the digital currency – MarketWatch

Bitcoin Crashes After Chinese Exchange Says It Will Halt Trading – Bloomberg

‘Dr Doom’ Faber says Trump is killing the dollar — and that’s why people are diving into bitcoin – MarketWatch

 

Those who have been speculating with Bitcoin are now experiencing a crash in its price. Bitcoin topped out on September 1st at $4950. In just a few weeks they say that Bitcoin shed $20 billion. $20b just disappeared in a puff of electronic smoke. At least when the Tulip bubble burst you could still eat the Tulip bulbs. In the book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”, they cover the Tulip Mania very well. At one time I tried to convert a single Tulip to grams of gold to see what a Tulip would be in todays prices, but I gave up after a few weeks of trying.

Tulips or Bitcoin, any bubble will burst when emotional people are involved, and right now the focus is on Bitcoin. The one year chart above does form a very nice Elliott Wave pattern with a potential 4th wave between $2000 and $3000.  At a previous 4th wave we would generally find support, but this is too optimistic, as crashes can go well below the previous 4th wave.

Before you know it, this Bitcoin chart will be back to being a flat line again. Some are betting that Bitcoin will still fall under $3000, but who says that Bitcoin will resume any bull market at all after it crashes?

On that September 1st peak the Gold/Bitcoin ratio hit 3.73:1. It took 3.73 gold ounces to buy one invisible Bitcoin. In early 2017 this ratio was compressed to  where it only took 1.14 gold ounces to buy one single Bitcoin. Could this happen again? Sure it can and it may stay like that forever.

Hacking Coinbase: The Great Bitcoin Bank Robbery

Bitcoin: Hacking Coinbase, Cryptocurrency’s ‘Goldman Sachs’ | Fortune.com

 

 

 

 

The Bitcoin Mania: Has The Bubble Popped?

 

The Bitcoin Mania seems to have gone vertical, but has now backed off substantially. In no way, shape or form, would I agree with Bitcoin being an investment, as there are just too many things wrong with it. 21 million coins will not cut it for Bitcoin to go mainstream. There are many competitive E-currencies coming out which I think most of them will fail as well.

I do not have the time to create detailed wave counts for Bitcoin charts as  it is not an asset class, and has no real correlation to other assets. In May on about the 25th, Bitcoin peaked at about the $2766 price level, and has now proceeded to crash in what looks like a clean impulse wave at this time. Bitcoin prices seemed to move at extreme speeds, and it still has to fall well below $1600, before any bottom could happen. It would not surprise me if Bitcion eventually fell below that $1000 price level.

Since we  have no real Bitcoin coinage to touch and feel, you are paying the price of an invisible electronic dollar.

It is next to impossible to figure out if Bitcoin is cheap or expensive, and it would be a good idea to create a Gold/Bitcoin ratio. I have started one, but need to do more calculations to get a better picture.

In July, 2016 Bitcoin was low in price, when we could buy 2.74 Bitcoins with one gold Troy ounce.  With the recent top it took 2.74 Troy ounces of gold, just to buy one Bitcoin!  This is a very dramatic shift in the Gold/Bitcoin ratio.

Another interesting point I noticed, was that Bitcoin crashed exactly on the new moon date.

I only posted this because Bitcoin is in the news, and intense news usually can give us a major top.