Author Archives: "BB"

Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Update

The Mini DJIA dropped like a rock on Thursday, trashing a few of my wave counts in both directions. For every one wave count that gets trashed two more alternates can pop up, showing us another potential direction that this market can still go. 

The speed and the angle of this crash sure fits a “C” wave very well.  The entire rally up to the peak was also a diagonal, and the following correction can work as a zigzag, containing an expanded flat inside the 3 wave counter rally. The whole pattern has a flat top and a steep bottom angle which touch at 3 points. This is one of those times that parallel lines are not required.

As it sits right now, and after a 3 wave crash, this market can blast to new record highs about as fast as it came down. Well, maybe not quite as fast, but technically the DOW should break to a new record high just one more time. I would expect another zigzag type of a move, and all it needs to do is break higher, by the slimmest of margins.

Of course it can drop like a rock and keep right on heading south as well, but if that is going to happen, it should do it sooner than later.

For a bigger bearish market to take hold, the DJIA has to decline much further before it can no longer recover. To put it bluntly, this 2017 top has been much harder to count out than the other two peaks in 2000 and 2007. I think it is due more to the fact that we are at a Cycle degree top, which makes the other peaks in our past, sequentially lower in degrees and more sensitive. 

You have to remember that the wave 3 peak in mid June, is the tallest peak in all of recorded stock market history, including old British market history as well.  It still amazes me that we are counting little bitty wave patterns at record peaks, trying to figure out when it’s going to get serious with the next set of impending corrections. 

From my Cycle degree perspective, finding a potential 4th wave is important to me as they help to give us a location. They also contain a warning that the next bullish phase will come to an end, followed by a much bigger correction. 

T-Bonds Weekly Chart: Head&Shoulder Review

It seems that I have been working on the T-Bond bull market off and on for decades, but the 35 year bull market was so choppy that impulse waves were next to impossible to find. It wasn’t until about 2013 that I started to focus on looking at the markets from a diagonal perspective. 

 Good impulse waves are next to impossible to find, in a diagonal bull market, but yet many experts count them like impulse waves.  They should be counted like zigzags connected together, with the ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4 and ABC5  labels. A diagonal sequence belongs to the 5 wave impulse sequence, and in the book they call it an ending diagonal. Triangles can act just like diagonals as well, but that still  may be much harder to confirm at this stage. I’m pretty sure that the T-Bond bull market is a Cycle degree, but at this time it is unclear if this was a triangle 4th wave rally or a 5th wave diagonal rally. Both options are just about always open. 

T-Bonds are sitting right at a H&S pattern, and they have started to rally. This bond top, sure looks like there is a potential expanded flat hiding in plain sight, and that the May crash bottom is just the start of a “C” wave bull market phase in Minor degree.

All I would have to do is drop the Minute degree start, down one degree level, and nothing else would need to be changed. Any potential start sure has been looking like pretty good impulse waves, so that would mean most all the other waves will follow along, until we run into 5th waves. This “C” wave sure would be a nice refresher for a change.

I labeled the potential peak above the new record high, but it can go much further  as “C” waves in a zigzags can stretch far out of proportion. Nothing is even in the waves of the real world, and the 1929-1932 crash is a clear example of how zigzags can get bent out of shape. 

The T-Bond bull market may not have died in 2016, and exploring the options would be the smart thing to do.  Either way a new record high would have to be achieved in the longer term. Short term we need 5 waves up in Minute degree, so we have a long  way to go before it is completed. 

US Dollar Daily Chart, Bear Market Review

A bear market would not be the right description if the US dollar erases 8 years of upward progress. There is still a very high probability that the US dollar bull market was a big bear market rally itself, when we completed a “D” wave top in Primary degree.  I think I was too early with my Minute degree wave count, so I have started to extend our present pattern. The recent May crash could also be ending at another zigzag, so we may get a surprise fast move up. 

The US dollar is not going to jump back into a bull market for several more years, but we should see a rather large counter rally when we reach a potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree. This will correspond well with a potential strong top in gold.   The commercials are still net short, with the speculators net long. When all this reverses, then the US dollar would be in a position to produce a very strong rally. This should still be a long way off. 

Short term we may see a small rally, but longer term, my bearish outlook has not changed.  The stock mania regarding the US dollar has gone into hiding, but we could see it return with any good stock market rally. Many will be just short term moves. 

DJIA E-Mini Intraday Update

 

 

The markets are slowly grinding down in a South Easterly direction. These choppy declines can produce surprise counter rallies where the majority thinks they are going on the next leg up in stocks. When you look at this with a weekly chart, it has barely moved, so it justifies scraping the bottom of the degree list.   I moved the Micro degree down which gave us room for the first set of waves in Submicro degree, still keeping the smallest degree at the Miniscule level. 

I have a one diagonal decline, and due to space limitations I counted it as an impulse. In reality, it’s just another diagonal wave structure. So far in this decline I kept it within 3 degree levels, and the time will come when I have to add 3 more degree levels.  For this stock bubble to have burst, it has to continue its choppy gyrations. It will be a challenge to get close as we really don’t know if we are going to get a flat or a zigzag in Cycle degree.  I favor the flat, but I’m sure the markets will throw something else at us, just to confuse the best wave analyst professionals.  

Wave analysts act like a herd as well,  as it is pretty easy to see all the micro, mini, mini and other wave counts, being counted at the atomic degree level. This is useless wave counting,  if we don’t have a clue what the largest degree may be.  My goal has always been to look for and to confirm the highest realistic degree.  This degree is Cycle degree,  as I spent well over a decade chasing SC and GSC degree.  Many times I have already given descriptions of exactly the wave positions we need to correct the three largest degree levels, many are drawn out as idealized charts and templates. 

Short term we are still seeing a bit of a rally in the markets, but it should eventually trend lower. 

 

 

US Dollar Intraday Review: Last Chance

 

 

The US dollar has rallied a bit further than I would like, and this is a signal to review the wave count again.  There may be a desperate attempt to break to new highs, and this wave count would allow it to do just that.   The idea that the USD can still falter in the next few days is never thrown out, as in this case two wave counts are in effect. I make my intraday charts fresh every day, and like to keep one wave count on one chart. 

Most of the time there are always two wave counts in the running, and it is only at the last minute that any wave count, gets down to only one choice. 

We are about three trading days away from the full moon this Sunday, so that may provide us with another turning time period. Full moons are usually bullish for stocks, but I have seen the markets charge right through the new moon and the following full moon as well.

Only time will tell if this top will hold, as it may take the rest of the week to find out.  

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