April, 11, 2017 Solar Cycle #24 Progress Update, And Other Comments.

 

This type of solar activity chart gets updated when the previous month has completed, and each dot represents the sunspot count at the end of the month. I have labeled some peaks that I deemed were very important,  as gold seemed to top out with the first big move up. This ended close to late 2011, but then a secondary peak formed just above the 100 sunspot count. 

The solar cycle contains many Elliott wave patterns as well, and that the secondary peak,  fits well into an expanded pattern. It would not surprise me if sc#25 will get a bit higher than 100, but that is just a gut feeling based on the pattern. SC #24 was one of the smallest in the last 100 years or so. Tracking the solar cycles for well over 20 years is the reason that climate changes on this planet. Not only does the climate change, but as soon as the solar cycle decline resumes, earthquakes and volcanic activity cranks up, and winters increase in severity.  The claim that the man-made climate change debate is settled is all bullshit, because it is the sun that sustains all life on this planet. Besides, if the science around climate change is settled, then who needs all the scientists working on the problem. 

One of the main reasons why stocks started in a major bull market, was the very fact that sc#24 had started to crank up. All bearish Elliott Wave counts regarding stocks were ruthlessly wiped out by early 2009,  and I’m sure the exact same scenario will happen again after sc#25 starts to crank up. This may still take 3 years or so, as the solar cycle can crawl along the bottom for some time as well. A year or so just before a major bottom, stock market crashes can occur, which has happened many times in history. 

This would correspond to the Cycle degree 4th wave bottom that I am looking for, and 2021 would be the 89 year anniversary from the 1932 bottom. I also had a date around December 2020,  as the potential to end the 20 year cycle, so we have some pretty important things that can happen in the next 2-3 years. 

I’m sure at the next major stock market bottom, the majority of expert wave counters will still be looking for some mysteries super decline yet to happen. These wave analysts would then be in sympathy with the herd, and that is a hidden rule that should never happen. Ignoring all contrarian indicators is a disaster for any large degree wave count, but since 2000 they have done this twice already. This will not change if they just continue using cosmetic wave counting methods.  

Any Primary degree 5 wave failure, calls for an immediate structure review going back 100 years or more. Not too many wave analysts want to do that work or even know how to do it.

All of the best contrarian indicators, should be incorporated into the EWP, and I have done my best to keep talking about these indicators as much as I can.

If the DOW ultimately ends at 8000 or a bit lower, and the majority say it’s going to 5000, then I will be happy to make a DOW 34,000 market forecast.  

One thing is certain the majority will never buy low and sell high, as it is also mathematically impossible for the majority to make money from the majority.