Another Look At The SP500: 2011-2015




One major reason why I see that many of these waves are so choppy, is because the majority of these waves all fit into diagonal waves.  A sequence of 5 diagonal waves, which I call the Diagonal5, has happened most frequently in the 5th and C wave positions. They also develop in the “A” wave positions. Counting these diagonal waves with impulse labeling is wrong.  Between the two they behave radically different. Diagonal bull markets are joined together with zigzags and flats,  while the impulse only corrects with zigzags, flats and triangles.

Here is a good example how we can time travel, when we move just one single wave position around. Before we were looking into the future for the wave 3 position in Cycle degree, and now we have the Cycle degree wave three behind us. ( 2015)  This may only be temporary, but we have to see if the first part of an expanded flat,  is already in progress.

If the Cycle degree has completed, then we have an all new ball game. This will leave many wave counters pulling out their hair, as the mythical fire breathing dragon called, “Primary degree wave 5”, refuses to appear.

We can still take some upside, but we need a sign, to help the next pattern to develop. We could crash back down to 1500-1600 as the first and only “A” wave in Primary degree bottoms. Expanded flats are very rare in any starting triangle, and zigzags do not expand as well. That leaves us with only one pattern at this time.

 The bottom for the 2010-2011 correction may also be another “A” wave base, so there are many places for the trend reversal to happen.  

So far the upward trend, at the intraday level is slowing, so it is getting ready to end or start some other correction. It has not moved enough to create even a better intraday chart. Hopefully this will change later in the week.