Daily Archives: March 8, 2018

March, 8, 2018 Euro Intraday Correction Update

The Euro bullish phase is still in tack, but it must push higher to confirm it.  Another 5 waves up in Subminuette degree will do it, but we need lots of patience to wait out any extensions that may still come. 5th waves are notorious for extending in commodity charts, and may even start out as a diagonal pattern. Commercials are net short with this futures chart, so a screaming sustained bull move is highly unlikely. We would need a strong correction like a wave 2 in Minor degree, but we are still far away from that at this time.

I would love to see a 4th wave triangle first, then I would change my outlook after the “thrust” has completed. These “thrusts” can also be short and sweet and then turn early very quickly. We have a major double top, that the Euro has to break through, and that may not happen until we get closer to the end of the month.

March, 8, 2018 Canadian Dollar Intraday Crash Update

Our downside breakout has happened, but there is still more to go. The September peak ended on a “C5” wave terminating a high quality zigzag in Minor degree.  If this Minor degree top is out by one degree higher, then this shows that the big decline came from a Cycle degree top.  With the Minor degree top, my bull market top in 2008 must be a Primary degree.

I suspect the CAD is going to create a wave 3 extension, which could make any 5th wave shorter. Commercials are net short, so there is no reason to expect the CAD to suddenly turn north in another huge bullish phase. The only support we may get will be temporary,  until the majority are freaking out about how bad our CAD has become. This may not happen until the CAD is well below the 68 cent price level.

These are futures charts and a stand alone asset class, which can be played in both directions. Up or down, long or short is all that matters!  This impending decline may still take a year or two, but after that our Canadian dollar could go into a huge bull market.

All this “Tariff War” hype can get serious, but markets have a tendency to ignore much of the hype or the hype is irrelevant. Canada is going into a recession and the CAD is imploding with it. I don’t think that the USA markets are going to keep soaring, if Canada is slipping into a recession.

March, 8, 2018 Gold Intraday Crash Update

Since the December, 2016 bottom, Gold has created higher lows which is the general accepted pattern that defines a bull market. Gold has finished a correction in early March and is now in another correction, which should not travel to any new low below $1304.  Gold might turn at the $1316 price level, but that remains to be seen. I have mentioned it many times that gold still has to retrace that $1375 price resistance level, and I will stick with that until it happens.

The pattern in the last 6 weeks or so sure looks like a correction, but to confirm it gold must travel above $1375.

Gold’s moves are more dictated by the US dollar when it rallies and declines. As long as the US dollar is still in a bear market, chances are good gold will react the opposite way. Besides the US dollar, the fear of a stock market crash may force a jump into gold.

When gold pushes higher and produces many inverted zigzags, then this will be a signal for yet another correction, but so far that has not been the case. We have about a $10 window to allow gold to still decline, so this would be enough to scare all the gold investors to make panic moves.  I will not fill in many of the previous waves, because this one little correction could fail, and I would have to work a new count anyways.  No gaps below or above present prices have opened up, so that is a good sign.