Daily Archives: March 1, 2018

Gold Daily Chart Review $1375 Or Bust!

Do you love choppy charts? Well, we have our share of wild moves in this gold market. I may have to change my wave 1-2 in Minor to an “ABC” also in Minor degree. At this time it’s not an important issue, as either way that $1375 price, should still get hit and or exceeded.

Since the late 2016 bottom gold has produced higher lows which is the conventional description of a bull market still in progress. The wild market action in gold in the last month or so, sure suggests a potential correction has taken place. The $1304 price level has been holding, so next week should tell us more.

February’s gyrations could just have finished so gold could see another leg up.  Gold also left a nice spike in its wake, so that also adds to a potential reversal. From the December gold bottom, gold soared $120, which I add onto the $1304 bottom. This ends up at the $1424 price level. If this happens then it may take all of March to play out.

All those that are complaining that the fundamentals in the stock markets haven’t changed, then you are not paying attention to Trump conducting a trade war! President Trump has declared tariff wars on steel and aluminum imports. The bears have tons of fundamental reasons for the markets to crash now. Conducting a trade war at the record stock market peaks of bull markets, is sure to bring down the house.

The last time they crashed the markets with a trade war, was when they past the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of  June 1930!

Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act – Wikipedia


Gold Intraday Crash Update.

In my last gold update, I thought another move north would happen before gold resumed its decline. This did not happen, instead gold dropped like a rock. Since the January peak the pattern has far too many overlapping waves, which sure can fit into a corrective pattern.

The wild bullish moves in the US dollar, was the main reason for gold’s decline. Gold and the US dollar move inversely to each other many times, and therefore once the US dollar rally comes to an end, gold should make a very positive run.

Right now gold has come to a stop at the $1304 price level, but a quick drop below $1300 could still happen. Overall a flat could be forming, where the “C” wave is part of a regular flat. If another fake bull run starts to happen, and it also becomes another zigzag, then we may have to look at a potential 3 sets of zigzags, with a potential “D” wave bullish cycle about to take off.

There is no way that I would count out a wave two correction with a triangle, so any triangle will force a change to that January peak. Another zigzag should travel well above my “B” wave in Subminuette degree which is at the $1360 price level.

As I post gold is still on a rally so hopefully we will get more than just another counter rally. As long as stocks and the US dollar have the potential to decline, then golds strong bullish phase can still happen.

Mini DJIA Bearish Outlook Update

The DJIA has finally peaked last month and now has started an early March decline. March seems to be a popular time for reversals, as the biggest bull market since the depression, started in early March 2009. For now I’m going to stick with the possibility, that we could produce a diagonal set of 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.  This means the possibility of a Cycle degree zigzag correction.

I will run this wave count for as long as I can, and if I’m wrong and the markets make some wild moves that refuse to fit well, then this helps to eliminate the zigzag. Elliott Wave is all about eliminating other probabilities and then if we’re lucky we may end up with a better fitting wave count. In corrections there are “always” 3 simple patterns to chose from, which must be specific to the degree  that we think we are at.  Any  potential Cycle degree correction, has a very specific wave count for three types of “simple” corrections. In a Cycle degree correction, there can be “NO” alphabet wave labels bigger than Primary degree. Trying to count out 5 waves down in Primary degree instantly tells me that the wave analyst thinks they are in a Supercycle degree or higher, wave count already.

As I post the markets were charging back up again, so if this rally starts to break many previous highs, then I may have to throw out this wave count sooner than later.   When this market refuses to constantly push higher, then this historic stock party is over.

The trick is finding that last wave that belongs to the bull market, so we can start the new bearish count.  Oh, this obviously already happened back in January, but how many times did we think it was over, yet it turned and soared once more.

Once investor fatigue sets in,  then it could open the markets for a big “bear” attack.