Daily Archives: January 19, 2018

Crude Oil Intraday Update

Like gold, crude oil also had an impressive rally, but the oil price has now started to back off. Any normal correction could fall back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This would be close to the $58-$56 price range. Of course, if a bigger degree decline is going to happen, then that $56 price level will not hold.  Either way the oil price could decline along with the stock markets. At times the oil price correlates with stocks as oil crashed just before stocks hit a major bottom.

This happening again is a very high probability situation and can’t be ignored. Even though it may not happen, a previous major low in oil could be down between the $48-$44 price levels.

Last weeks Oil COT report had the commercials net short by a wide margin, with the speculators doing the exact opposite thing. It’s the speculators that always chase a trend, as they are adding to their net long positions as the oil market is pointing up. Speculators added 20,444 long positions last week,  just before oil started to suffer a correction. The mass media reports using the speculators numbers, as they think fund managers is the smart money.

I was hoping for more of a compressed Gold/Oil ratio than this present 21:1 ratio. Even before the 2014-2015 oil crash started, crude oil had a 17:1 ratio, which ultimately ended with a 44:1 ratio. On any oil decline, we will eventually see the Gold/Oil ratio start to spread again. This ratio may hit 25 or 30:1, so we have to be aware of this when it happens.

Gold Intraday Gyrations Update

After a great run, gold has now started to back off.  Any top trend line I could use is useless as it would be a race to see which trend line will get sliced first.

Sure, gold can keep right on trucking, but there could be a bigger correction than what the majority is anticipating. A “Flash Crash”,  type of a move would be the perfect outcome. The markets always love to try and fool as many experts as it can and gold is no different.

On other occasions we could see a %61 net crash of a single wave 1 which would be a pretty normal correction. This would be closer to the $1278 price level. It may never happen, but corrections can go very deep with commodities. On the positive side gold can just keep grinding higher, brushing all the corrections to the side until a really big gold correction surprises us all.

When all the gold bulls are making bullish calls, then that’s when the gold market can start a reversal. There may be a bit of a gut move by day’s end, which only gives us until the end of the month for a turning window to show up.

Mini DJIA Intraday Double Top Review

Yesterday morning the DJIA produced another record high of 26,149, after which the mini started a decline. From the beginning of January we’ve had a single move containing 5 waves in Subminuette degree. Subminuette degree is 4 degree levels above the rocky bottom of my degree list, which I cut off at Miniscule degree.   Not using a lower set of degree levels helps to judge potential extensions, and keeps me from wandering into a higher degree, before its time.

Recently the Mini DJIA topped at 26,149 with a square looking top that. I’m not jumping up and down with joy at the thoughts of a small double or even triple top wave structure. It’s the nature of the beast and I have to use several different wave peaks to count from.

It sure would be nice if the DJIA doesn’t break another world record, which the analysts are so good at counting and reporting back to the mainstream.  All I can say is, “Enough already” as we can only listen to the constant squawking parrots for so long.  “Who are all these analysts broadcasting to”? Day in and day out they broadcast to the world looking for the secret group to invest in these markets at record highs.

In reality, there is no secret group, as they are called, ” Retail investors”  which always buy in at the top.  There is something about this group that has bought in at every record high since the 2000 peak.

FUND FLOWS: Concerns Over Frothy Markets Not Stopping Investors

Doing the same thing as the herd will get you the same results as what they are going to get. The, “High Buying” retail crowd, doesn’t have the stomach and the account “headroom”,  (net cash),  to survive even a medium correction, nevermind a Cycle degree correction.  All the DJIA Titanic has to do is list to its side and the retail investor will start to panic and pull monies out again. The professional contrarian and insiders are long gone, this market, only the emotional investors are left to jump in.

In the last 17 years, investors have learned nothing about buying low and selling high as no amount of broadcasting has taught them anything.  Constantly trying to forecast how much higher this market can go, is all Smoke and Mirrors. They have no clue how deep a Cycle degree bear market can go down to but when it does, these same experts will claim how much deeper the markets can crash.

I’m very bearish on all the 5 main stock market indexes, that I cover, but we may have to put up with these intraday gyrations for a bit longer.

At a very minimum the entire Trump rally will get completely wiped out which may only be an Intermediate degree correction, nevermind the Cycle degree correction that we are supposed to get.