Monthly Archives: December 2017

December, 31, 2017 Year End VIX Update

A year end look at the VIX can give us some insight as to what is going to happen in the next 3-4 years. The VIX peak on your top left matches what I have is the Intermediate degree wave 4 top. What followed this VIX top was a long drawn out decline, with many counter rallies, that all ended with  vertical spikes. A person would be hard pressed to find any clean set of impulse waves during this decline,  except for very small degree level sequences.

What it boils down to is that anything with the VIX are all diagonal wave structures. Our “Little Blue Book” only shows what they call an “ending diagonal”. The fact is, these so called, “Ending Diagonal 5th Waves”,  can and do extend dramatically, far beyond what they ever show us in the EWP book. In the book they also show us pretty idealized charts, all subdividing into nice even wave structures. The simple truth is that you will “Never” find these pretty wave structures, because nothing in the markets is ever even.

What the VIX really shows us is a declining market with a potential wedge like pattern. For the last 3-4  months the VIX is setting up a massive base just below the $9 price level.  The two previous upward spikes came to a screeching halt, at the top trend line, before heading south again.  This base is now the lowest since the last major low in December of 1993, 24 years ago.

With the bottom base line being flat, the VIX bears are getting squeezed into a box. These boxes or uneven triangles can produce wild upward thrusts, that shock  us when they do happen. We will get a surprise if we choose to ignore these VIX bear trap situations.

The first peak we have to beat is the $21 price level, and then the $30 price level. Technically speaking, the VIX should exceed or retrace this entire VIX bear market, so hang onto your hats folks, as the VIX winds are going to start blowing to the northeast, sending stock markets southeast.

OVX, CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (INDEX)

I rarely look at the crude oil volatility index, but I may start to use the OVX a little more frequently. The idea is the same as any other volatility index, but it is strictly related to crude oil.  Any potential future move down in the index, would indicate a bullish phase in oil is coming. The reverse would be true if we think an upward spike in the OVX is going to happen.

We can see the recent wild spike to the upside, and then a reversal and a crash to about a 4 year low. At this time we are sitting at the 21.32 price level, and any further upside would indicate that oil is going to have a bearish move, or bull market correction. At 14 we have a huge double bottom, but if this oil bull market is going to persist, then the OVX should crash well below the 2014 low.

I would just be guessing as to how low the OVX will eventually end up, at the peak of the next big oil bullish run. I love even Fibonacci numbers and at 21,  we are dead on to a Fibonacci. 13, 8, and 5 would be the next logical sequence lows, but how long that will take could be several years or more.

The oil bull market is not over, as chances are good that oil is heading into another correction. Last week saw a huge move in gold, silver and oil, and any oil correction will now happen in early 2018.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Update

During the last 10 days or so, the Mini DJIA has produced a choppy sideways pattern on the verge of breaking to a new record high at any time. Of course the idea of a nice clean single top,  has been quickly trashed. Not until we figure out which peak still belongs to the bullish side and which peaks are over on the bearish side can we build a better picture.

This will take some time to sort out as 4 of the indices I cover are still lagging behind the Nasdaq by a large margin. If a sudden spike to a new record high happens then this is a good thing, as it would be nice to see a better defined top.

Today is the last trading day of the year and if the market stays up for the rest of the day, it pretty well tells me that investors have no fear of the future. “The future is rosy ” mantra, is usually a bad sign. The consensus forecasters are all preaching to the converted, so there is nobody left to come in.  If the average Joe investor can’t convince his buddies that this is a perfect time to get in, then you know this market is already saturated.

Stock funds see biggest weekly outflows in more than two years – MarketWatch

Fund flows do get reported which are mostly ignored by the majority, but the majority can never benefit from this information as the herd moves too slow for all of them to jump ship at the same time.  This is pretty typical at major tops, so it’s nothing new from my perspective. Capital preservation is most important at market tops and this time, “It’s no Different”.  Fund flows preceded every major peak since 2000.

Gold, Silver and Oil have all been soaring, as the US dollar implodes at year’s end. When investors see their paper assets declining, they could look for refuge in gold related assets.

I wish all my readers the very best and a “safe” 2018.

My postings will be curtailed until the 2nd of January 2018.

10-Year T-Notes 1998-2017 Review

In general, when any bond declines in price, the rates go up. Government paper works on what they call the 10-Year T-Notes. Did this party end in late 2012, or are we still faced with a record move to the upside?  This bull market has been going on since 1982 from an inverted Cycle degree wave 3 base, and technically should end with a Cycle degree 4th wave top.  The entire bull market is a very messy pattern as it is next to impossible to find any decent or high quality 5 wave impulse sequences. Stocks are heading down in a potential 4th wave decline, so in that respect we want to keep our options open.

Investors can still seek refuge in T-Notes when carnage hits the stock markets. Long term this Cycle degree 4th wave rally should get completely retraced, but that could still take years before we will know for sure. Following the 2000 bottom, T-notes developed a typical diagonal wave structure which is a challenge to count out at anytime.

Elon Musk plans to launch a Tesla to Mars!

Elon Musk plans to launch a Tesla to Mars — blasting a David Bowie Song — on a SpaceX rocket | Toronto Star

I follow Elon Musk and his space program. I’ve watched most of his rocket liftoffs, and his spectacular failures as well. Elon Musk is certainly a visionary and I respect that. In January 2018 he plans on testing his Falcon Heavy rocket, but he has repeatedly warned that this launch could go badly and even blow up.

Elon Musk plans on launching his own Tsla with this Falcon Heavy launch, so it will prove interesting either way.  Since the 2016 bottom TSLA’s stock price soared in a vertical move as it followed a pattern that works best as a single inverted zigzag. It also fits great into the bigger diagonal wave pattern that TSLA seems to have an abundance of.

In the bigger picture any inverted zigzag can get completely retraced, which means that the $140 price level should get exceeded in the next few years to come. The last high happened in September 2017, ending with a $389 price level. For the last 3 months TSLA stock has been over in the bearish world already and I expect it to continue. This decline is starting like another diagonal and it would be silly to expect anything else.

When TSLA first started every expert analyst on the planet seemed to hate the company, yet the stock price soared. This just goes to show how wrong the expert forecasters can be, and I sure don’t expect this to change. When the media paints us a rosy picture of the future, it coincides well with a major top as there is nobody left to come in.

The Gold/Tsla ratio is at 4.14 today, which is on the very expensive side and until this ratio becomes sane again this TSLA stock will be very expensive.

Elon Musk Introduces the New Big Falcon Rocket – Highlights – Bing video

If  you think the Falcon Heavy is a big rocket, “you ain’t seen nothing yet”, as he is also developing the BFR, Big Falcon Rocket”, in the next few years.

Mini Nasdaq 100 Bearish Phase Update.

It sure looks like the Nasdaq is leading a trend south. All the other indices are not even close to following the Nasdaq down, but they can always catch up in a hurry.

This Nasdaq bearish phase can still backfire, but there is only one full trading day left for 2017, which does not leave enough time for one more push to the moon.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has dipped below 5:1 again and this should keep on compressing as any Nasdaq bear market intensifies. When this Gold/Nasdaq ratio becomes stupid again, which could take several years or to that 2021 time period, the markets will be ready for a new bullish phase. Until that day comes all the bullish trading accounts will show a major color shift to the red!

US Dollar Intraday Crash Update

The US dollar bearish phase has seemed to kick in again, and is now approaching a classic downside breakout situation at the 92.500 price level.  As bearish as that may be the 90.600 price level could offer the US dollar bears another big surprise.  Ultimately, we want to see the US dollar crash below the wave 1 in Minor degree as that is just one way the wave count can get confirmed.

I have not had to change my potential “D” wave top in Primary degree at this time, so there is lots of room for the US dollar to keep moving down, for the next several years or so. Of course, those pesky counters rallies always get in the way, which many think can be the start of the next big bullish phase. Dollar bulls start to throw in the towel, only surrendering to the bears, after most counter rallies start to fail.

In the future the entire mainstream media will turn bearish towards the US dollar, and gold analysts will be urging you to buy into the gold bull market, to protect yourself against the ravages of inflation. The sad fact is, that this is far too late in the inflation cycle, when gold will do little to protect you.

Crude Oil Intraday $60 Resistance Update.

At this time I’m still able to keep my wave degrees alive, but I know it will need adjusting again in the future. Gasoline displayed any “E” wave as a new low, but crude oil did not. We certainly got the “thrust” that usually follows any triangle. It will also force another degree change, if I like it or not.  For now, another correction seems to be in progress, which may not be finished just yet. We could get a sharp downward move yet, but spikes to the downside are bullish moves in a bull market.

With all the wild moves in gold and oil you would figure that the Gold/Oil ratio would dramatically change but in reality, it changed very little. The ratio today is 21.71:1 which has been floating between 21-22:1. Some analysts have made wild crude oil price forecasts already, but all the crazy future price forecasts you will read about, mean nothing if the Gold/Oil ratio suddenly shifts to below 10:1. This could happen at $89 or the $115 price level.

All the oil bears have been repeatedly demolished as the bull horns do their job. When the markets go up after repeated bearish calls, then this is a clear indicator that oil is still in a bull market.  When that situation starts to reverse, then any oil bullish phase will start to come to an end.

The big oil crash from the mid 2008 peak to the early 2016 bottom, sure can fit as a zigzag, which means that eventually crude oil will retrace its entire 7 1/2 year bear market.

Crude oil stopped just a bit under that $60 price level, which has been a resistance price target for some time. Eventually crude oil will break free again, and soar towards that $89 price target.

Gold On A Run Update: Time For A Rest?

It seems like gold is on a marathon run, hardly taking a breather. No trend lasts forever, even at these small degree intraday levels. This rally changed from bigger wave corrections to smaller corrections that we can hardly count out.  This has the classic diagonal wave structure signature, so until better subdivisions come along, this will have to work as an inverted zigzag.

It could be a slow correction or a mini flash crash like move, with no real firm retracement level in sight. Even though it looks like a vertical move on the daily scale, in this intraday scale it has a bit more of an angle to it.

We are coming up to a potential H&S setup so this may add some resistance as well.  We’ve seen these types of H&S setups many times before, with most of them ending up being extremely bullish.  I don’t expect, this time to be any different.

This gold rally got help from the US dollar decline, causing stupid emotional investors to jump on the bandwagon.  Many investors only care that something keeps going up, as they couldn’t care less about any fundamentals. Without those trend chasers, contrarians have nobody to pick on, or no gold bulls to sell to in the future.

The big bull market in gold is still in progress, and it could take all of next year before it becomes more clear to a greater majority. That day has not arrived, even though gold is pointing up, like what we would see in a final blow-off situation.

The main price level of $1375 still has to get retraced in the short term, while longer term the Gold/Gold-stock ratios, will need to shift to the expensive side.

HMMJ, Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (ETF)

I do not give “Buy or Sell” recommendations on any ETF or single stocks. I can only relay my feelings if I’m bullish or bearish at any given time. I have several Marijuana related stock positions myself, but which ones that will move into a bull market, takes many years of due diligence. Or you trust someone that has done his due diligence already.  I have some people I meet that want to jump on the Hemp bandwagon, but yet when you ask them if they have a Canadian trading account set up, they say, “No”.  These kinds of investors are jumping in with an emotional decision and are many years behind or late.

These types of investors that are getting in because they hear about the Hemp bull market in Canada from friends and news networks, are far too slow or late.

The HMMJ,  Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (ETF) is a prime example of a well advanced bullish phase. HMMJ can keep right on going, but chances are good when you jump in, a correction ensues and this ETF could drop 30-40% in no time at all.

Sure Canada has a great new bull market, but all this hype could end once the legal supply and demand numbers get filled. Unless the numbers tell me different, Canada’s hemp users are not growing by leaps and bounds, but the numbers could eventually run into a brick wall with no new users trying the product.

Any grower has to follow strict Canada Health Board regulations, so there are major hoops that any legal grower has to abide by.

Bitcoin Futures Update

So, you think that the Bitcoun bear market is over? Short term you may be right, but we could also just get the next leg down. This is the Cobe Bitcoin futures and until more volume shows up in the CME Bitcoin futures, I will stick with the Cobe futures charts. On December the 22nd, Bitcoins bottomed at $11,300, and have now surged back to a $16,500 high.

If the bearish scenario remains true, then this $16,500 price level should hold. Since the peak we had a $9000 drop in 5 days, followed by a $5000 rally in 5 days. This does not sound like a stable platform for any real world application, except for speculation. I will not keep a running wave count, but may wait until short term extremes are reached.

This Crypto Mania thing,  is nothing but pure speculation, and we have been warned over and over about the risks involved.

Heed Warren Buffett’s warning: bitcoin is pure FOMO – MarketWatch

Warren Buffett has been warning us about Bitcoin, and he has seen many Manias in his lifetime.

SEC.gov | Statement on Cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings

The SEC is also warning us about the Cryptocurrency Mania.

The biggest fraud that Bitcoin hype artists are making is that Bitcoin has “intrinsic value”! Bitcoin started out worthless and I’m sure that one day it will return to a “worthless” condition. The crazy notion that, “it’s different this time”, is all pure bullshit.  There have been many “Manias” in the past, and this Bitcoin Mania has a very close resemblance to the Dotcom Mania of the late 1990s.

There are now close to 1373 Cryptos on the list, and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon. When it does, then the weeding out process will start and this crazy Crypto list will start to shrink.

At one time it took close to 16 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin, which is now sitting around 12.2:1. We have no way of knowing what the extreme cheap side of the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can get to, because this could all just be a, “One hit wonder”. Bitcoins could end up with a flat line, like the Tulip prices did back in the early 1600s.  The cheap ratio I do have is about 1.74:1 which is a far cry away from any 12:1 ratio that we have now.

DJIA 2000-2017 Elliott Wave Bull Bear Market Reviews


The chart above is a stretched weekly chart which shows any vertical moves in a more dramatic fashion. The Elliott Wave Principle was observed using the DJIA charts and coincidentally the DJIA and the other indices all have similar patterns and wave counts. Always reviewing the largest degree levels is very important, as we have to make sure that it still fits into the larger picture that we think we are in. The reason why all these 3-4 sets of waves appear, is because we always have to look for wave 3 to be the longest or extended wave. Since 1932 any wave 3 has never been extended, but it’s always been the 5th wave that the experts extended. 5th wave extensions “never” travel across multiple generations as 5th waves are fundamentally very weak.

When the majority of expert wave analysts didn’t see the bull markets coming both times in 2002 and 2009, I knew this SC and GSC degree hype had “MAJOR” flaws in it.  As soon as any part of the largest degree level has failed, then the entire 5 wave sequence from its start, “MUST” be thrown out. Of course, this is too much like work, so the majority of wave analysts just makes a few cosmetic changes, and “bingo”, they end up with a new and improved,  wave pattern. Cosmetic wave counting doesn’t work, and if we just keep making pretty changes, we will miss every major bull market that will ever come in our future.

Just by not being prepared before any high degree bull market starts, makes the Elliott Wave Principle very inefficient and pretty useless. I was brainwashed with this GSC degree mania myself, and once I realized that the DJIA would not implode in 2011, I knew a major flaw was still present in all our wave counts. It’s pretty sad when expert wave analysts miss a bull market and leave 300% gains on the table.

Any person with a very healthy investing account can not afford to miss any bull market in their lives. It takes time to make the mental switch from a long bearish phase and then back to an impending long bullish phase. It takes time to accumulate strong ETF positions so we need lots of early warnings. Even Warren Buffet screamed how bullish he was back in 2008, and my favorite contrarian was turning very bullish as well. It wasn’t until March 2009 that any wave counts were ending, so wave analysts were close to 6 months out, in recognizing that a major bottom has arrived.

In late 2008 conventional conditions were already showing us that the 2008 financial crisis was coming to an end. Insiders buying their own shares back, is a clear sign that the bull market was coming to an end. Insiders don’t buy if the 2009 bottom was just a wave 1 in Primary degree. They already knew that the markets were  oversold on a massive scale, so it was a no-brainer for them to buy stocks. Even the VIX started peaking out in late 2008, which all helped to seal the coffin containing all the stock bears.

My top in 2000 was wave 3 in Intermediate degree with its start in 1982. Once the markets crashed in 2002, it was followed by a 5 year bull market that most wave analysts also missed. From this 1982 bottom it was exactly 20 years to the 2002 bottom, which is part of the 20 year cycle so prevalent in the markets.

Each peak progressively gets higher in degrees, but Supercycle wave 3 is still far away in time and price. SC degree wave 3, never mind GSC degree wave 3, may not end until the 2029 time period.  Not until “All” 5 waves in Cycle degree are found and confirmed, can we progress into any SC degree world.

The 2009-2017 bull market was a very choppy bull market, further confusing us into believing it was just another bearish rally. It wasn’t until the DJIA was past the 2007 peak did wave experts look for alternates.

Hindsight has to be turned into foresight, and I have been very specific with the wave counts that we need to confirm a Cycle degree bear market. This is so we can catch any major errors as soon as possible. When I’m wrong, I’ll be wrong in spectacular fashion.  Short term, wave counts are always foggy to say the least, but we want to get the biggest degree as close as we can, well before any real bottom is in.

When the markets are pointing up, and the majority are all guessing how far that this bull market still has to go, I have already painted the picture for when the markets point down again. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets, and the reason this is so, is because there’s “nobody” left to get in.

The bullish preachers are preaching to the crowd that has been converted for months already. All we need is for the, “Greatest Fool” to  crawl out of his cave and he will be left holding the bag of falling asset prices.

Buy Low, Sell High  is a very important PDF to understand, which combined with the beautiful color PDF chart below, makes a powerful case for contrarian thinking.  ‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Anatomy_of_A_BullandBear_Market_with_Money_Flow_0930.pdf

Like Rick Rule says, ” you’re either a contrarian, or you become a victim”.

If you have progressed, or lucky to have a strong net worth and you would like to enhance the contrarian point of view, then I strongly suggest that you subscribe to  Steven Jon Kaplans True Contrarian Newsletter.  

 

GDXJ And SIL ETF Reviews

GDXJ is a gold stock related ETF. The great thing about ETFs is that we don’t have to worry about any single company fundamentals. All we need is a very good understanding, where gold stocks are in their bullish or bearish phases. Recently the story was that investors were dumping gold related assets, to jump onto the Bitcoin Mania bandwagon. Of course the Bitcoin bandwagon has now crashed and is burning in a huge electronic fire. No sooner that this bearish news about gold came out, GDXJ stopped falling and has now started to soar again. GDXJ reacting the opposite way of bearish news, is a very bullish sign in itself.

You won’t find those indicators in your trading tool box, but smart contrarians look for those signs all the time. I see this action during many “ABC” corrections.

During last weeks Bitcoins carnage, and a $9000 price crash, gold stocks kept right on trucking along.  I have dropped my degree levels down to Minor degree again, which means a bullish phase is still coming. Any “C” wave bull market, could send this gold stock related ETF to new record highs.

Any bullish phase ends when many bulls are present, like they were back in mid 2016. I called for a correction at that time, which ended up being about 18 months long. Long drawn corrections are necessary to wash out all those emotional investors, that have no clue about longer term cyclical investing. They panic anytime the market goes against them, forcing them out just before the biggest bullish phase starts to move. I can’t  give any specific “buy” or “Sell” instructions, but I can only relay my bullish or bearish mood at any given time.

The Gold/GDXJ ratio is still relatively cheap as it’s at 37.85:1 at the time of this posting.  This has compressed a bit from a recent base of 40:1. My extreme expensive Gold/GDXJ ratio is 10:1, so we have a long way to go, before this gold market becomes expensive again.

 

SIL has a different bearish phase, that other ETFs didn’t have. SIL just finished a bigger and longer correction, but has now synchronized in time with other turnings. From the 2016 bottom SIL produced a stunning move, which can only happen in a very short time span. The SIL bandwagon also had to crash, producing a bearish phase. Bearish moves in a bull market are necessary to get rid of all those freeloaders, that think they can just jump on at anytime they want. Emotional investors will always get burnt when they chase a bull market, or when they try to take their entire positions all at once.

Contrarians do not do any panic buying or selling, as they were buying during the entire 2015 decline, with GTC orders. Everybody hated gold stocks at that time, but look what happened shortly after. The majority always gets in at a top, and in the case of SIL they left a 360% gain on the table. I believe SIL can break to a new record high again, as this second bullish phase starts to kick in.  At a minimum, SIL would have to completely retrace that mid 2016 peak of $54. This is so close to a Fibonacci 55 number, where a 61% (1.618)  move above $55 will get us close to the $89 price range. SIL would end up just below a major double top.

The thing with anything silver related, is that during its entire life, it contained wild and crazy zigzag moves. These zigzags fit best as diagonal waves. A single zigzag bull market fits very well into any diagonal related run.

The recent Gold/Sil ratio is sitting at about 39.66:1 which is still very decent from my perspective. When the Gold/Sil ratio starts getting closer to 20:1, then we may have to look at the bigger bullish phase again.

Due to the fact that commodities are all leveraged, Elliott Waves don’t always act the same. Fear is the main fundamental that drive commodity prices up or down, not supply and demand numbers. Fear of missing out, fear of gluts and fears of shortages, is the real driver of prices. Hope and greed don’t have very much time to set up between mini panic attacks, while in the stock markets, it could take years for hope and greed to set in.

Gold 2011-2017 Review

Since the 2011 peak, gold suffered a bearish phase for about 4 1/2 years before it exploded in 2016.  In general, when a wave count just doesn’t fit well at certain points, then I try and work it from a lower degree perspective. I know that the majority of participants work only from a price perspective, and I get that, but the sad truth is that contrarians don’t work on price. They work on crowd psychology. They also never waste their time drawing a bunch of useless trend lines, nor do they spend their time drawing numbers and letters on any chart. The majority of the trading world works on “Price”, and short term trade setups. One main reason that there are so many short term traders is because they have no clue what the big trend actually is, or what it’s going to switching to.

Gold is extremely cyclical and the contrarians love this. In the cyclical gold market, “If your not a contrarian you become a victim”. Buy Low, Sell High is the contrarian way. When insiders in gold companies are buying their own shares back, then this has to get reported. The same applies when they are selling. In 2013 the gold news was full of insider buying reports and even now gold stock insiders of gold companies are buying into their own shares. I have a contrarian friend I visit regularly, and he constantly looks for insider buying before he takes any positions in any single gold related company.

Ignoring this public information, ignores a great contrarian indicator that helps us in forecasting a bull or bear market in gold and gold stocks.

Any real contrarian cannot afford to miss any big bull market in gold stocks. Sure, many times they are getting in too early, but high net worth individuals need that extra time to accumulate large positions. The idea that we should never add to a losing position is irrelevant to any contrarian. In the contrarian world, it’s all about accumulating positions in preparation for the bullish phase still to come.

I dropped the 2011 top down to a lower degree wave 3 in Intermediate degree. A lower degree level is far more sensitive than higher degree levels are, and the 2011 peak is a prime example. Many were calling for a Gold Supercycle to go to $5000-$10,000, yet gold did the opposite thing and crashed to $1050. For a Cycle degree  wave 3 top in 2011 to be in play, the $1050 price level is not nearly low enough for a Cycle degree correction to be over, but a $1050 Intermediate degree bottom, could fit.

For now, and maybe a bit longer into the new year I will look at the commodity bullish market from an Intermediate degree perspective. Since that $1050 bottom gold jumped 130% before another bearish phase kicked in. This bearish phase that ended in late 2016, is not part of the bigger bearish phase, but it’s part of the new bullish phase that started in 2016. If this is reasonably close, then eventually gold will travel above the $1919 price level. Even if doesn’t perform that well and never makes it to a new high this time, then it will do it at another time in our future.

It would be pretty exciting to see a potential diagonal set of 5 waves develop in gold, but we have to keep our options open as well.  Any big bullish phase in gold will not end just because of a big bearish dip in price. They end when the majority display extreme optimism.  Not owning bullion when the stock market is pointing up, is a constant mistake investors do and have done many times in the past.  When stories come out that investors and fund managers are dumping gold to jump into Bitcoin, it tells me investors have learned nothing about gold. Emotional investors jump on anything that’s going up, and they jump off when it’s going down.

I will try and get a few Gold stock related reviews in,  but will take a break until next week.

Bitcoin Crash, Gold 2.0 Myth Busted

I increased the degree level to where the start is now a Minute degree. During the last 5 days Bitcoin crashed about $9000 and has now recovered a bit. From my perspective, I have not run into a set of good looking declining 5 waves in a very long time. Any little 5th wave acted like a diagonal, which makes Bitcoin wave counting an excellent experience. There could be more of this counter rally to go, but sooner or later the counter rallies will get bigger and take longer to play out.

I started the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count quickly, and so far have not had to change it, but may have to at a later date. Three sets of visible 1-2 waves will certainly give us a wave three extension, until the next 5th wave decline starts. If the last  5th wave contains many choppy wave structures, then that will help to confirm a new higher degree will be forming. Also, any 4th wave triangle that may form will also help in confirming our location.

Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high – MarketWatch

Unless I can see a clear zigzag or flat starting to set up, there will be no telling how deep Bitcoin can crash. We heard the stories about the myth that Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 which has now been exposed as pure bullshit. At one point $200 billion worth of Bitcoins evaporated in a puff of electronic smoke.

This Bitcoin crash changed the Gold/Bitcoin ratio form a peak of 15:1 to a bit under 11:1. This is not even close to the 3:1 ratio we did have at one time. Also, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever rise from the ashes again.  At a 3:1 ratio Bitcoin would have to fall to $3800 USD, which is very close to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.   As of today, the Crypto count is about 1377, with no end in sight just yet. When the list stops growing or even starts to shrink, then this Crypto party is over.

Below, we look at gold and how it reacted to the Bitcoin crash during the same 5 days.

Gold, dipped a bit, but in most part gold completely ignored the crash of Bitcoin. Gold kept chugging along, pushing higher every step of the way. I think gold has more room to make gains in the short term, but it’s starting to form a nice spike on the daily charts.  I didn’t touch my bigger wave count as I just couldn’t find a more convincing alternative at this time. Either way this gold bull market has a long way to go in time, and price.  It’s not the top projected price that’s important, but the mood that will be present, is far more important. Also, the Gold/Hui, and gold ETF ratios should become very expensive.

Mini SP500 Intraday Record High Update.

The SP500 tried a valiant attempt in a decline, but so far has refused to follow through with any conviction. This can be a triangle with an “E” wave to go, which can fail because diagonals waves also start this way.  We need for most of the bull markets previous dips, to get completely retraced.

In the bigger bearish picture,  no support price forecast will hold for any length of time. This will fool us all into thinking that any rally is the start of the next leg up.  At a bare minimum the entire 2016-2017 bullish phase must get retraced in all of the 5 indices that I cover.  Once that target is reached,  the next phase to below the 2011 lows should also happen. We are not going into a SC or GSC bear market like many of the doom sayers are trying to tell us, besides that insider stock buying will be reported which puts a floor the decline. The start of solar cycle #25 will also shred all those bearish moods at that time.

To put it very bluntly, Since the 2000 top, not a single wave count confirming any part or start to any SC or GSC degree, has ever been confirmed. The Little Blue Book” tells us exactly in idealized form,  what patterns and counts we need. For any SC degree correction, we need many 5 wave sequence declines in Intermediate degree, or at least one Primary degree 5 wave decline. Nowhere since the 200o peaks, has this happened.

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom has flexibility in it, as it is not always possible to catch the extensions even as they are happening.  At this time capital preservation is the most important thing, because without that we will never have anything left to buy into the next huge bull market. Everybody hated gold recently, but gold has refused to play along with the gold bears, and has been heading north.

I will not spend that much time on the big markets during the holidays, but will review more gold and gold stock ETF’s when I can.

Bitcoin, Breaking Records On The Way Down

They use the Cobe futures contract for the CME Bitcoin futures. Each contract contains the price of 5 Bitcoins and is always the cash settlement price. They never have to take delivery once the contract expires.

I believe it is the secondary top, that I have that is the real top, followed by a declining  set of 5 wave sequences. I always start with my smallest degree level, which now contains a Miniscule set of 5 waves. Miniscule degree is the bottom of the barrel from a degree stack of 15. I can adjust the degree levels up or down if need be, but right now we would be heading down to a wave 1 in Minor degree which still could take weeks.

Any wave count I produce is strictly experimental in nature, but practicing in counting 5 declining wave structure is like a warmup for the stock markets when they start on their journey south.  I am not an expert on Cryptos by any means, but not counting a declining mania, is too hard to pass up. The new record low that hit this morning is 15,380. We have a long way to go, and at some point in time the pattern must form into a zigzag, flat or triangle “If” another big leg in Bitcoin is to happen.

Bitcoin created all sorts of records on the way up and now is set to make new records on the way down. Either way, we have the potential bursting of Bitcoin Mania,  or it’s just a huge correction. The next weeks and months will tell us more as Bitcoin price moves are very sensitive at this degree scale.

Nasdaq Intraday Bubble Top Review

This morning after reaching another record high of 6545, the Mini Nasdaq plunged, but has now started to rally again. Any  big bearish phase should produce lower highs along its journey heading south. At this time it’s not a done deal, as we know that these markets can make violent moves to the upside as well.

Diagonal wave declines do make zigzag crashes like this as well, so until that recent world record high holds, anything can still happen in the short term. In the long run the 5 main indices I cover, will all terminate at a potential wave 3 in Cycle degree. From any wave 3 top we know that we have 3 idealized possible corrective patterns, which I have been posted for many years already. We could get a big flat or zigzag, with a long drawn out triangle being the last of my choices.

I have so many idealized triangles posted for several higher degree levels, but the chances are good they will never materialize. My search for all 5 waves in Cycle degree is very important, as without them no SC and GSC degree wave counts can exist. All fundamental forecasts based on any SC or GSC degree wave positions  will never work as well.  Sure, we can get a deep recession and if you believe the fundamentalists when they are bearish, then just look back to the 1932 bottom and the huge rally that followed ending with the 1937 peak.  That bull market was a huge 5 year and 473 % gain, in one of the worst depressions in American stock market history.

Some believe this Nasdaq bull has a long way to go, due to some income tax reduction. That idea will have great difficulty in materializing from a price bubble peak. It worked for Regan, when a bull market was just starting,  but It will not work for President Trump!  The odds are much better that in the end, Donald Trump will be blamed for any crash of the stock markets. Just like 1932 or 2009, any bearish bottom towards the 2021 time period will be the breeding grounds for the next big bullish phase.

Having a very bullish wave count in sympathy with the crowd will never work, just like a super bearish wave count in sympathy with all the bears, didn’t work in 2002 and 2009.

Bitcoin Mania Review

I have no plans to give my readers trade setups regarding any Cyryptocurrencies as there are over 1369 Cyrptos like ICOs out already. Whoever names these asset classes, is very creative as it even puts the Dotcom naming to shame, during the late 1990s tech boom.  In any new Crypto like product launch, it brings out the crooks and scammers, to the point where the FCC is overwhelmed with cases and no longer allows trading, until it has time to investigate.

Without the bull market in the tech sector, this Crypto craze would never have started. If the Nasdaq starts with its huge bear market, I don’t think that these  Bitcoin mining companies will keep going up in price.

I created this wave position last night, but never published it until this morning.  Even though Bitcoin made a price jump, I did not have to change my wave positions. I believe that the spike to $20,000 is not the real top, but that the secondary peak of $19,650 is the real top.  All the wave counting in the world will make no sense if we don’t have a specific position to count from. I realized very early that using a higher degree in any Crypto currency,  gives us a false picture as to the size and scope of this potential bull market.  We are lucky to be anywhere near a wave 1 peak in Intermediate degree, but worse yet Bitcoin could implode and turn to digital dust, joining all the other failed attempts in the digital graveyard.

I call the top a wave “Zero”,  as this could be the  potential start of a Bitcoin bear market.  We don’t know what the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can still do, but two readings were pushing over 15:1. Would you buy one Bitcoin with 15.1 ounces of gold?  Gold has intrinsic value, and is a medium of exchange, which no currency in the world can provide. 10 years from now, what do you think will still be around, Bitcoins or Gold?

Since the list of the new ICOs has exploded, I think it is important to watch this list for when it stops growing, and actually starts to shrink. I’m sure there still has to be a huge,”weeding out” process to come and until we know who is left standing, anything can happen.

US Dollar Intraday Price Action Review

In Just a few short weeks the US dollar will be starting its second year in a bear market. The mass media still hasn’t caught on, as they think that the US dollar is still in a bull market. As much as some of these counter rallies look like the return of the “Bull”, they are giving the US dollar bulls false hope. Gold’s steady bullish moves so far, helps to confirm this.

The bullish move that started in September of 2017 works as a diagonal move, and since it took longer to play out, I have to look at it from a Minor degree perspective.  The US dollar may still seem a bit sluggish heading down, but I’m sure the US dollar will still have some, “Bad hair days”.

Very bearish stock action this morning helps to make my case, that the bearish action of the US dollar will continue.  When the headlines tell us to get out of the US dollar, and gold is finishing a vertical move, we can expect a reversal of the US dollar, stock, and gold relationship. The entire US dollar bullish phase that started back in 2008, could have been a big bear market rally, and the only way for that to get confirmed, is when the US dollar breaks below the 2008 lows.

Short term we may still see some US dollar bullish action, but longer term the US dollar is in a big bearish phase.

Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Review

At this time we have a mini type double top with one record high at 24,896. This is a far cry from when the DJIA touched 6500.  It has now gained about 383% and many experts say it will last forever, as we are in a secular bull market. They hated stocks in 2009, but now they love them. This has happened at every major top that we’ve had since the 2000 peak. That is just recent history, as the same mood was present in 1929! Each euphoric top produced a pessimistic bottom, before another major leg up occurred. “Is it going to be different this time”? I doubt it very much!

Remember that when you are listening to all those rosy fundamentals, think about it as,  “Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes”.

Short term this could still be just a correction, but even then the DOW could fall to a previous low of 24,200.  Right now the Mini DJIA is sitting at the bottom of the trend line, which technically will not hold when a bigger correction starts. At this point all we can do is take one new record high at a time, as record of records are being broken.

The Dow just set a record for setting records – MarketWatch

One day the DJIA will break all records of consistently lower lows. I found a very good chart that shows the psychological impact of the market swings from a very bearish low, then back up to a bullish top, and back down again. It is a very high quality chart, and all those readers that don’t understand the big swings I talk about should print it out in full color.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Anatomy_of_A_BullandBear_Market_with_Money_Flow_0930.pdf

The Gold/Dow ratio is a bit more expensive, but not by that much, as it’s presently sitting around 19.77:1. It takes 19.77 gold ounces to buy the DJIA today. Below is another high quality chart, that shows this Gold/Stock relationships.

‎www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/DowJones_GoldPrice.pdf

As you can guess I’m bearish for the long term which could last until the 2021 time period.

“Gold On A Run” Intraday Bullish Action Update.

So far our December, 12th bottom is still holding which is a good thing. Any price move can mean nothing in the bigger scope of things, if we don’t understand the type of pattern that has ended. Recently, many analysts have been bashing gold, as the majority have been selling and running away from the gold markets. Dumping gold and running to Bitcoin or stocks will backfire like it has happened many times before. Calling Bitcoin the new Gold 2.0 is a silly brainwashing tool. Gold, has been around for thousands of years while Bitcoin is only 7 years old. The antics of the herd will never change when emotions take over.

Gold is the “Real” money, as we can exchange into any other currency when we need to. Gold retains its value over time as well. Sure, it swings widely in price, but that just shows how much the price can be compressed into one ounce of gold. Back in 1999 gold had an extreme low price of $253 an ounce, and the majority of all experts hated gold at that time.  Then 11 years later gold’s price had exploded to about $1919, a 758% gain. The hype to own gold in our investment portfolio at the peak was the strongest, yet they didn’t give a shit about owning gold in 1999, when they were calling it the “Ancient relic of the past”.

Recently the fund managers have been throwing gold away (selling), not knowing how much the gold ounce can compress in price.

Chasing a bull market is sheer greed and fear, plus it wrecks havoc with your cost averaging ratio. Any gold bull market is not over until the US dollar starts on a new and very bullish path, which must break 2016 highs. Well, maybe the US dollar implodes to new record lows instead,  like it did from the 2001 peak.

It’s always good to own gold bullion, but only when you buy it when it’s pointing down.

When investors start to see that the Nasdaq and Cryptos are starting to head down, and gold is heading up, what do you think the emotional investors’ reactions will be?

Crude Oil Intraday Update: Up, Down, And Sideways

It may not sound right to many people, but technically, charts can only move in one of three main directions. North, South, and East. When a trend has soared North, we have 2 directions remaining where oil can go next. When it goes sideways, it’s in the process of switching directions. Which trend line will oil hit first? The top one, or the bottom one?

The wave count I’m showing is short term bullish, if a diagonal bullish phase is in progress.  I try not to present many alternates on one chart, as I have to use many of the past wave positions as a reference, for a new wave count. I checked the Gold/Oil ratio and it has compressed  to just a bit below 22:1. This may be due to the fact that we are in the February 2018 contract month, which usually smooths out over time.  Now if this ratio suddenly moved to say, 20:1 or 17:1, then we may be due for a longer correction.

The bearish move can still happen, so the bottom trend line would get sliced in two, once oil charges below $55.  The $60 oil price  is a previous bear market resistance level, so it stands to reason that oil is giving the oil bulls a hard time. I mentioned it many times that bull markets end when their charts are pointing up, but this is not one of those times. The vertical move would be obvious on a weekly or monthly chart as well. Far more bullish media would have to be present, which are still missing today.

Some analysts are calling for a very bearish $40 oil market in 2018, but I don’t see it that way at all. Any bearish target is worthless information if oil does crash to $40 but then drives to $89-$115 or more.

The idea is to never waste a bull market in asset classes, but being late chasing a bull market is not what I mean. I like it better when the markets make a firm commitment in one direction, as after that we usually get a soaring reversal.

Any zigzag or flat that is pointing down in a bullish phase ending with a C5 wave, will get completely retraced over time. Since the crash from the 2008 peak looks like an “ABC” pattern, then eventually crude oil should rise above $147 highs.

Mini DJIA Creates Another “New Era” Record High

Markets just keep on extending and the DJIA sure doesn’t want to be left behind. I’m sure that the fear of missing out is driving some of this mania, with Bitcoin mining, playing a huge part in the rise of the DJIA. In short the DJIA blew past any short term expectations, which means that extensions are dominating the markets right now, with most extensions being in a 5th wave.

Since the 2015 bottom, and looking at a monthly linear chart, the DJIA has created a vertical move that will get completely retraced, but the exact timing for a real top is still hard to calculate. Many times these markets would carry on into the following year, so at this point anything can still happen in the short term.

To show us another sign that a bigger correction is in progress, we need this DJIA to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction and then fall below all November lows.

The Gold/Dow ratio is at its highest it’s ever been at a record of 19.71. It now takes 19.71 Troy ounces of gold to buy the Dow. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio was only at 15.4 so it has some ways to go to match the Gold/Dow ratio.  The new moon has arrived but that can just trigger a reversal. Sooner or later investors will start taking year end profits as all the paper gains must be captured before it can become real money.  At these lofty highs,  capital preservation is most important. In the next few years you will see how many of these millionaires today, will no longer be millionaires. Trillions of dollars of paper wealth will go up in electronic smoke and disappear.

Insiders have already captured their cash as they have sold out in May of 2017, but the average investor is still hanging on waiting for better times. In late 2008 insider and contrarian buying helped to put a bottom to the stock markets along with the start of solar cycle #24.  This situation will happen again, but it will never happen when the majority is in a jubilant bullish mood.  A deep bearish mood has to develop first, as bear market bottoms are the breeding grounds of bull markets.

Bitcoin Power: Nasdaq Soars To New Record Highs

Many times I can’t help it,  but to look at this insane market from a science fiction perspective.   We have a Bitcoin mining driven induced mania, that could be putting a huge strain on the demands of electrical power. Without the Nasdaq or tech industry, there would be no Cyrptos, as most of the high flying Bitcoin mining stocks are in the Nasdaq. Ask yourself, “Will these Bitcoin miner stocks keep going up while the Nasdaq crashes?” More and more stories are coming out about the huge power requirement for Crypto mining operations. It’s  getting to a point where you have to build a small nuclear reactor attached to the mining rig for power and cooling demands.  Even the demand for coal for power generation has increased.

The next thing we may read about is that, “97.5% of experts agree Bitcoin mining is the cause of global warming”. They blame the industrial revolution caused global warming, yet a Bitcoin mining revolution draws more power, than the entire industrial revolution ever used. They say that even coal demand is driven by Bitcoin mining. Coal was also used to power the industrial revolution, so what’s the difference today?

Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise – Bloomberg

How Energy Investors Are Getting In On The Bitcoin Boom | OilPrice.com

One day the grid will get overloaded,  triggered by some wild CME from the sun. Many Bitcoin mining operations would come to a grinding halt including many electric cars and trucks.

The Stunning Energy Cost Of Tesla’s Semi-Truck | OilPrice.com

When a new record high is in the making, then I look for a potential correction to materialize. Another correction in a bullish phase can’t go that deep as it would then break out through any trend lines. At a minimum the Nasdaq would have to crash below the 6250 price level, but getting there may not be that simple as this market refuses to die.

CME Launches Bitcoin Futures Contracts

 

Cryptocurrency and futures speculation is very risky due to the extreme leverage that many futures contract have. The opinions expressed are strictly personal and are not to be considered as any “Buy” or “Sell” recommendations.  Any Elliott Wave positions I show are strictly a best guess, as it could take many years before any real wave pattern could emerge. At this time I know very little about the specs on these contracts, but they contain 5 Bitcoins per contract.

When Bitcoin futures spiked to $20,000, the contract had a $100,000 US dollar value.  For every $1 that one Bitcoin moves up or down, the futures contract jumps up or down by $5. There are stiff margin requirements, especially  when shorting. The good news is that it’s all based on cash settlement prices, which has no underlying impact on Bitcoin prices.  I have no idea how much leverage that they use just yet, but a general reference point would be 5:1 or the price of one Bitcoin.

I will not make Bitcoin commentary a big thing as there are still huge problems with most Cryptocurrencies. The chart below is a bit longer than 5 days old, so any degree levels I do have are very small.

 

As we can see, the volumes have been extremely low with a huge surge going 300 in a matter of minutes. What we did get tonight is another huge spike to the upside, leaving a huge gap in its wake. Due to the low volume overall, we could get many more gaps open up everywhere. Until this fills out more all gaps will mean little in the big scope of things.  The SP500 also spiked along with Bitcoin futures, but that also can be brushed off as a coincidental event.

When I calculated the Gold/Bitcoin Futures ratio, it worked out to about 15.4. It took 15.4 gold ounces to buy one Bitcoin. Only once have I recorded anything higher. Still,  we really don’t know where the Gold/Bitcoin ratio can max out at, so we really don’t know if it is in a price bubble even at $20,000

There are currently 1361 Crypto currencies out as of today, but I would expect for the amount of Cryptos to keep growing in the near future.

All Cryptocurrencies | CoinMarketCap

When they stop flooding the markets with Crypto ICOs, then we may get close to our first washout stage.

Potcoin

 

The Crypto scene is up to about 951 so called Cryptocurrencies at this time. It is impossible for me to cover all of them in great detail, and I have no plans on doing so.  Any comments I do have, are strictly personal opinions and should never be taken as investment advice or perceived as a “Buy” or “Sell” recommendation.

Anything in Futures, Forex and now Crypto trading involves high risks due to the extreme leverage that Forex and Futures trading contains. It seems that Cyrptocurrency trading is also extremely leveraged, but until we look at it, one Crypto currency at a time, we will never really know the amount of leverage in each Crypto. Yes, I call it all a “Mania” but that doesn’t necessarily mean, that they are in price bubbles just yet. They also had “Forex Mania” when it started so, “Crypto Mania” is nothing really all that new. One of the best manias was the Dotcom Mania of the late 1990s, until they realized that the majority of IPO’s could never make any money.  There was another mania in the late 1990s, that very few people remember. It was constantly broadcasted and saw headline status until about 2001. Remember the mania that Y2K fears created? Not too many people do.  

Banking For The Cannabis Industry – Digital Currency | PotCoin.com

I made the big mistake of looking at the Crypto world with a rather high Elliott Wave degree level. This can’t happen because all Cryptos started from a Wave Zero location, making Potcoins just about 4 years old.  This is the Potcoin price in US dollars, and there are issues with its development as much of Potcoin is used for person to person exchanges.  They figure Potcoin will be used to make payments between growers and sellers as well. If there is anything to this Potcoin, like a bull market yet to come, then Potcoin should create more vertical moves in the years ahead.

In this case I used Minute degree wave 3-4 as my starting point, and it should eventually keep on producing higher lows.  With a Minute degree start, we still have a full 5 degree levels to use up before we reach a Minor degree wave 1. So many Cryptos can fail and when that happens the chart patterns would Flatline!

Quebec seems to be a hot place for pot related activities, with growing operations also being set up. Potcoin seems to be started in Quebec as well. I do have real money positions in two pot related stocks,  and I own two gold ETF related positions as well.

I’m not against speculation or all Cryptos, as I do own some Goldmoney. I still may create postings for Oilcoin and Goldmoney which have commodity related themes to them.

Some people I meet want to jump on the pot bandwagon, but when you ask them how serious they are, I find they don’t even have an open trading account.  These people are far too late, or far too slow getting into the game, as they get their information from people around them or the news on tv. Pot related IPOs in Canada have been around for a few years already, but picking the right one before it goes vertical is always a “Crapshoot”.

“Nobody Cares About Gold” Commentary

‘Nobody cares about gold’ as hedge funds seek thrills elsewhere – MY Stock 118

The present stories about the Non Commercial traders dumping gold to join the Cryptos Mania is nothing new folks. Back in 1999 when gold was $260, banks were dumping gold, individual countries were selling gold, which they called the, “Ancient relic from the past”. Stocks were peaking as well, so nobody wanted gold. At that time you could only find 14% bulls present, as published in the Market Vane Reports.  From this ugly bottom gold turned and soared 730% as the majority again never saw it coming.

I documented that turning very well in 1999, as even hedge fund managers were dumping gold when it was $260 an ounce.  Back then, mining companies were switching to the Dotcoms which was also called a “New Era”. Just switch the name Dotcoms for Cryptos and voila, we have another “New Era” 20 years after the first one. “New Era”,  are keywords that come in a bull market just before the stock market starts to turn bearish. . In the end, what we did get was the “Old Era”, bear market and small recession.

The sad part about this news is everybody thinks, that the hedge funds (managed money), is the smart money.  Sad to say, but the media is reporting to you what the dumb money is doing, not what the Commercial traders are doing. It’s the Non-Commercials that chase the markets up and down, and they eventually always get into a trap. Last week it was the Commercial gold traders that closed off their gold short positions and, added to their long positions. Commercial trader activities hardly ever get mentioned in the media, so a one sided reason, just sends fear into the hearts of gold investors,

As soon as the bad news for gold came out, gold soared $20 per ounce.  The problem is, nobody studies gold history anymore, and the herd can’t remember anything as a group, so these cycles happen over and over.  Gold is one of the most cyclical markets on the planet, and the real smart people are the contrarians, buying what so called professional “money managers’, are throwing away! Even the ETF GLD has to sell gold to reduce their shares.

My bet is that when gold crosses $1355, we will read the news about managed money buying gold again. When the emotional investors realize that the stock market and Crypto prices are starting to head down, but gold doesn’t  then what do you think they will do.?

It would be a real pleasant surprise to one day see, gold spiking like Bitcoin has. Most people think price is everything, so when the see the gold price falling they think gold is losing its value. In reality the gold price is going back and hiding in the gold ounce. In 1999 nobody could forecast that a $260 priced gold ounce actually contained $1920 cash.  Right now gold has been pointing down while the US dollar and the DOW have been pointing up. This all looks great for an impending reversal for 2018.

Mini SP500 Intraday New Record High Update.

The markets keep breaking the world record highs, and the SP500 is no exception. After every 5 wave run, even at this small Micro scale, we should expect a change in direction. The only thing that ever changes, is the degree where we think we are counting from. In my case I’m dedicated to finding all 5 waves in Cycle degree first, not SC or GSC degree locations.

SC and GSC degree price commentaries and forecasts are irrelevant in a Cycle degree world.  Everything starts with a wave zero location, and in this case 5 waves up in Cycle degree, started in 1932. By 1937 the markets were finishing a Fibonacci 5 year bull market, which started right in the middle of one of the biggest depressions in stock market history.

Now look back to the 2009 bottom, when the markets ignored all the bearish fundamentals, and proceeded  to soar, leaving the majority in the dust without any strong positions.

In the next 2-3 years we could be facing another major bear market, and you can bet the majority will be left in the dust empty handed again.

Getting caught up in our present euphoric, “New Era, Bitcoin world”, we must keep in mind that bull markets end when the majority are telling us that they can’t end. We have more price bubbles in the world today than we can count on all our fingers and toes, which also indicates a rather high degree top is in play. One degree higher than the 2007 peak to be exact.

December, 15,2017, Gold Daily Chart Update

Our recent gold crash, seems it has turned a corner about 3 days ago, and so far so good.  A wild move in both directions is still possible, but if we just finished an “ABC” correction, then gold, “Must not”, fall below July 2017 lows.  From the July 2016 peak of $1375, gold also created a deep zigzag crash, which eventually must get retraced. Now from the 2017 peak, we have another zigzag looking crash, which “must” also be completely retraced. To say the least we have an interesting setup for gold to rally well into 2018 or longer. 

We have higher lows, through much of the bearish phase, which is a sign of a bull market. “C” wave bull markets can extend past any realistic expectations, because bandwagon jumpers just love to buy high, thinking that a greater fool will take these assets off their hands. We are not anywhere near this euphoric stage, so we have a long way to go, before the big bullish scenario has completed. 

We have two major price hurdles for gold to cross next year, which is the $1355 and $1375 price levels.