Daily Archives: June 14, 2017

Quick Gold Intraday Bullish Review

In the last day or so, gold has reversed with enthusiasm as it started to charge back up. This could be the start of another leg up, but it is starting like a diagonal.  We also have a great H&S pattern which can be very bullish, in this stage of the game. The depth of the correction is also very close to what I was expecting, so at this time all systems are a go for the next phase up. 

We need to see gold surpass the June peak, by a wide margin and then carry on to take out the $1375 price level. The present wave 1 peak created a double top which gold has to leave in the dust, if the next leg up is true. 

Mini DOW 30 Review: Another New Record High

This morning the DJIA seems to have peaked yet again, and then very quickly reversed.  After constantly breaking new record highs, the DOW is ripe for a big correction. How big of a correction all depends on the size of the degree top we may be coming to.

The million dollar question is if it is a Cycle, SC or a GSC degree top?  Fear or fear mongering is the name of the game, and the more fear they can spread, the more we are brainwashed and manipulated.  Since the 70’s we have been brainwashed by Elliott Wave enthusiasts, that a GSC degree depression is coming. DOW 5000, 3000 and even DOW 1000 have been forecast by the wave counting experts. 

I think this market will fool us into thinking extremely bearish thoughts, but it would not surprise me if the DOW never even cleared the 2009 lows.   Why should the markets do something that the majority of wave analysts, have been trying to forecast, since 2000?

Since 2000 not a single wave count has developed, that even begins to confirm SC or GSC degree. Very specific wave counts have to show up before we ever get into any SC degree guess work.  I get very annoyed when I see a high degree wave count, based on some mythical past where 5th waves are the extended waves.  With stocks wave 3 is always the extended wave, and rarely does the 5th wave extend. Back in the 1900s we had a Cycle degree 5th wave extension, where 5 waves up in Primary degree was a long diagonal, and not the pretty impulse waves that analysts seem to see. 

Any Cycle degree 4th wave bottom is still far away and it could take until 2021 before we actually see a bigger and better picture. 

 

Silver Daily Chart Review: Up And Away?

Silver started to bottom yesterday and now has soared this morning. This could be the start of the next leg up from a pretty steep, and straight decline.  Another very steep and much longer decline ended in early May which could all work as wave two corrective declines.  

Last month I showed a potential wave 1-2 for the 2016 decline, but there is too high of a chance that the 2016 top was an “A” wave top in Minor degree.  The entire silver bull market going way back to the 1993 bottom can only fit into a diagonal which are zigzags connected together, producing the wild spikes and overlapping patterns, that make up the silver market. We have to search far and wide to see some clean impulse waves, and even then they are small degree moves. 

In silver, I have to keep wave positions on two separate patterns, and the above pattern has an “A” wave top but in Minor degree.  It has to be in Minor degree if the 4th wave bottom is in Intermediate degree. Silver has done this many times in the past, so it will be interesting to see if silver will hold this pattern on a 5th wave.

A few other asset classes also could work as a 5th wave zigzag, so silver is not the only one.  In the long run an “ABC” zigzag bull market is very much the same as a 1-2-3 impulse wave count.  Until wave 3 materializes, we can work both patterns.  When this does happen, other indicators should also start to show up, so it is not just one thing we have to look for when the next major peak hits again. 

Even now silver could roar up as another zigzag to a wave one as well, which would make the present wave 1 peak a bit too early.

I’m sure you have heard of $200 silver forecasts, but since 1980 silver couldn’t even manage to hit $50 never mind $200.  If we are really lucky maybe silver will give us another triple top, around the $49 price level, but until that actually happens, any price forecasts are just mythical numbers thrown out to the public based on fundamental analysts.  

Longer term I’m bullish on silver, and now we need more evidence to keep the silver bull market alive and kicking.