Monthly Archives: June 2017

US Dollar Intraday Crash Review

The US dollar has crashed since the June 20th peak and has now started another correction. I’m counting the sideways market as a potential triangle, but it could be leading to a diagonal wave 3 of one higher degree.  I would love to see more downside to the US dollar as that will help any gold related assets as well. On a stronger than anticipated counter rally, we might see it bunch up before it moves higher, but that is not what is happening at this time.

I can start this wave count as a small impulse, which usually means a bigger sequence is coming. When the media starts to act like parrots, regurgitating bearish news on how the US dollar is imploding, and ridicules bearish price forecasts are made, then I would expect to see a real strong rally to unfold. Trapping all the US dollar bears in the process. One thing we can count on, is that in any market, participants are oblivious when they are in a bull or bear trap.

Don’t worry the US dollar is not going to implode and fall to zero, as it will soar again once a major stock bull market starts. The 92 price level would be the next major area of concern, but we have a ways to go before that starts to hit the radar screens. The 93 price level also contains a triple bottom, and triple bottoms are always areas to watch in any asset class. 

In the long run, the bearish phase is still on, as it will take a major change in one of my indicators that I track, before it makes a major reversal.  When the commercials become net long, and speculators become net short, then it will be time to initiate another complete review.  I try to review before the markets force it on me. Constantly reviewing is the only way to find better fitting wave counts, which are buried in the past. Creating different wave counts cosmetically will never work, as we have to look deep into the past and make structural changes. 

VIX Intraday Wild Swing Update

I applied a few wave positions this time, but we have to be aware that we are dealing with extreme diagonal types of waves. On June the 9th the VIX had its last major low,  which has not been exceeded at this time. This has produced a higher low which is the conventional description for a bull market.  

 A massive spike up, and then this morning we had another spike to the downside.  This downside price spike, is what I would like to see hold.  

I mention before that the VIX could see the $15 price level, which stopped close to my invisible top trend line.  The VIX has to crush this $15 price level, if a larger VIX bullish phase is already in progress.  I’m not a big fan of the trend lines being used in the markets, as they have abused trend lines to a point that they no longer make any sense. Besides, any kid with a ruler can draw trend lines, once they know how to join 2 or 3 peaks together. 

I switched to use two parallel lines, as that can work for 3 wave zigzag moves and 5 impulse waves as well. When the markets break away from two parallel lines, chances are good, it’s a correction or a diagonal.  

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash And Rally Review

 

As the majority fuss over the DOW and the SP500, the Nasdaq has not made such a dramatic counter rally today. It is well below it’s June record high, and it should tell us soon if it wants to smash to new record lows. Lower highs give us an idea that a bear market has started, but the lower high pattern can be very deceiving, when a 4th wave is involved. I’ve not put back my Cycle degree wave 3 just yet, as I would like to see this market show us a more convincing bearish move, first. 

As much as an inverted zigzag is showing, many times they turn into diagonal waves, as diagonals are just zigzags connected together.  This all may smooth out over time, but that might be just too much wishful thinking at this time. 

Mini SP500 Intraday Crash And Rally Review: Will The Crash Continue?

The wild swings we have been getting are far from over. To stay on the bullish side this market has to perform and break to new highs, even if it breaks record highs by a very slim margin.  Yes, the counter rally we are getting can count as an inverted zigzag, but we can get fooled, because diagonal waves start out pretty much the exact same way. 

It is critically important to keep an eye on the June top as this is where the count starts from at this time.  The VIX also shot straight up as the market crashed, but the VIX has already crashed in a dramatic fashion. It will remain to be seen if the VIX works its way to another new record low. As sharp as the decline was, I have to keep  the bullish and the bearish wave counts active, at the same time, until at least another new record low is produced. 

The next few weeks will be important, but this market has to decide either way, if this market is a bear disguised as a bull, or a bull acting like a bear to lure us into complacency.  About 2 weeks ago the SP500 soared to new highs with a 3 wave pattern, which can’t be counted as a 5 wave impulse, but yet the majority of expert wave analysis ignore this little known fact. 

Presently we are stuck between a rock and a hard place, while this market decides what it wants to do.  Any Cycle degree wave 3 top does not have a fixed home, as we need to wait if yesterdays crash low, will hold. 

In general, I do not post on any US or Canadian holidays, but I do occasionally break those rules.  

Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Update

The Mini DJIA dropped like a rock on Thursday, trashing a few of my wave counts in both directions. For every one wave count that gets trashed two more alternates can pop up, showing us another potential direction that this market can still go. 

The speed and the angle of this crash sure fits a “C” wave very well.  The entire rally up to the peak was also a diagonal, and the following correction can work as a zigzag, containing an expanded flat inside the 3 wave counter rally. The whole pattern has a flat top and a steep bottom angle which touch at 3 points. This is one of those times that parallel lines are not required.

As it sits right now, and after a 3 wave crash, this market can blast to new record highs about as fast as it came down. Well, maybe not quite as fast, but technically the DOW should break to a new record high just one more time. I would expect another zigzag type of a move, and all it needs to do is break higher, by the slimmest of margins.

Of course it can drop like a rock and keep right on heading south as well, but if that is going to happen, it should do it sooner than later.

For a bigger bearish market to take hold, the DJIA has to decline much further before it can no longer recover. To put it bluntly, this 2017 top has been much harder to count out than the other two peaks in 2000 and 2007. I think it is due more to the fact that we are at a Cycle degree top, which makes the other peaks in our past, sequentially lower in degrees and more sensitive. 

You have to remember that the wave 3 peak in mid June, is the tallest peak in all of recorded stock market history, including old British market history as well.  It still amazes me that we are counting little bitty wave patterns at record peaks, trying to figure out when it’s going to get serious with the next set of impending corrections. 

From my Cycle degree perspective, finding a potential 4th wave is important to me as they help to give us a location. They also contain a warning that the next bullish phase will come to an end, followed by a much bigger correction. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash Review

This morning the markets crashed, trashing any mythical support we may have had with that triple bottom at the 5640 price level. In order to be over on the bearish side, and no longer on the bullish side, the Nasdaq can come back hard, but in this case the Nasdaq must not exceed the recent wave 2 top, at the 5770 price level.

These markets can come back so hard that it’s not safe, to claim that the big one is here, or to brag about some super duper SC degree crash is coming.  A Cycle degree crash has to come first, and from my perspective a 4th wave correction.  It could take another full three years for any Cycle degree 4th wave correction to play out, which may be a flat or a zigzag.  A zigzag is my second choice,and there is a very good probability that 2009 lows will not be exceeded.  The threat of a triangle 4th wave is last on the list, as solar cycle #25 will have started closer to the 2021 time period. 

  Once solar cycle #25 starts, we could get a Primary degree 5 wave bull market, which could last 8 years. 2029 is a good reference point, for the completion of Cycle degree wave 5, and SC degree wave 3 would also be close to completing. 

A comet is supposed to swing around again by 2029, and I can just imagine the doom and gloom that the media will exploit when that time arrives. 

I have been following the cycles of the sun for many decades and we are nowhere near any major bottom. Usually there is major market upheaval, a year or so before any bottom, which happened during the 2008-2009 time period as well.  Solar Cycle #24 peaked in 2014 when the same comet also came close to earth. 

Crude Oil Intraday Rally Review

Crude oil has soared a bit further than I would like, so I had to go over the wave count to look for wave 3 to be extended. There is a  spike that I have to ignore, down at the wave 2 position, but otherwise we are looking at a diagonal run that has terminated this morning. We could get a deep correction, say down to the $43.60 price level, but it could make just a small correction, and carry on with the next leg. 

Another leg up would be ideal, but we could get fooled with this being just another 4th wave rally. Crude oil in a daily chart is a very ugly wave pattern, so we could get surprises that can’t be factored in. If a new low were to happen then the “B” wave in Minor degree would be trashed.  Any diagonal belongs to the 5 wave family, even though it can contain many zigzags, sequenced together.  

At this time oil is declining, but it is still rather weak, suggesting a correction is in effect. Hopefully we will know by the beginning of next month, if this bullish phase will hold. 

E-Mini SP500 Gyrations Review

Yesterday, the SP500 hit a crash bottom, and then reversed its direction and charge right back up where it once came from. This was a little too far for my liking, so I looked at my daily chart to find the peak, to the start of what could be a triangle.  I’m sure you know about the potential “Thrust” the 5th wave could make.

What is different is that we are in a much bigger diagonal, where the 5th wave itself can be another zigzag. Another zigzag to new record highs would then happen. The first zigzag sure looks like a flat, but the “D” wave could not be a better formed zigzag, pushing the SP500 to new record highs. 

If we look at the triangle as a whole, we can see that each zigzag in one direction, was completely retraced by a zigzag in the opposite direction.  Following the potential “D”wave top, the markets plunged into what looks like another zigzag crash, which I labelled as an “E” wave. 

This “E” wave has not been completely retraced, and I think it should still happen, as we were only 10 points or so away, from breaking a new record high this morning.  If the bulls are still in control, then the top trend line will not hold, as this present correction should find a bottom, and then reverse.  This mornings plunge was very steep, further making the case for a correction. 

Even if  this chart heads to a new low, we could also be in a “D” wave, as the entire triangle could be one wave too early.  I would love to see this as a triangle, because it can give us more certainty, that a much bigger correction is still to come.  

The new baseline is at the 2412 price level, which can get breached, but still soar back with a vengeance.  The SP500 is now getting close to breaking support, so we have to see what happens during the rest of the day.

Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

In the yesterdays oil post, I saw that I made a huge mistake by flipping one degree level. It should be a Micro degree wave one and not a Submicro degree wave 1.  The “C” wave was labeled one degree higher than the wave one was, which must not happen. 

Either way,  we are ending at another potential top, at least in the short term. This could also be another sucker play, that could fit into a 4th wave triangle, so the next anticipated correction could surprise us. Another zigzag, heading down would help to dispel those fears.   When the markets are weak corrections can go very deep and in this case, any previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, could bring us to the $42.50 price level. 

I have a very short diagonal wave 3, but the 5th wave sure seems to have made up for it as that last zigzag extended. 

The Gold/Oil  ratio, compressed a bit and is now sitting at 27.9:1. This is nothing to get exited about at this time, as a bigger oil bull market is still in effect.   

Mini Nasdaq 100 Intraday Rally Review: Marching To A Different Drummer.

The Nasdaq always seems to be the bad boy, which refuses to march along with the others in an exact fashion. What else is new? It seems the Nasdaq is playing the leading role, but still is far away from making any new world record highs. The markets have topped in early June, in what is the highest point in all of its entire history.  Records were constantly broken, which sounds more like the Olympics than the stock markets.  In the end the Nasdaq could provide us as a leading indicator, as it surely did in 2009.

Are we going to get another lower high once this rally finishes? The invisible trend line that would connect the two tops, will give us a rough target where it may top at. Hopefully the Nasdaq will run out of steam before it gets there. Apple has also seen a very strong top, which must be exceeded if the bigger bullish phase is not finished just yet. 

As long as the Nasdaq is on the bearish side, any bad news can push the markets down, which is usually a surprise.  We will see how the rest of the week goes. We are also coming up to 2 holidays that can keep this market soaring at least, until after July the 4th, Independence Day holiday. 

With hackers attacking the western nations, it would not surprise me one bit, if the stock exchanges get hacked and everybody is locked out. The powers in control would have to shut all markets down and declare a 3 day holiday.  Once the so called holiday is lifted, then investors may have a real reason to sell! Shutting down computer systems, and then demanding Bitcoin as ransom payments to unlock their computers, seems to be a popular method that hackers are using these days. 

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Attack Update

In a blink of an eye the SP500 drops like a rock, then soared this morning, and is still going as I post. There is a good chance that this market is already over on the bigger bearish side, and we should get another “lower high” to confirm it.   

Since I have a Micro degree wave 2 top, at the 2447 price level, then this rally cannot go past that point.  It’s the pattern that’s  important,  and any wave 2 top cannot be exceeded. It can retrace up to 99.9999%,  but not 100%. 

Active investors or emotional day traders move the markets, because the average Joe is too busy drinking beer and having barbecues.  Being an average investor does not work. They may be up on paper during a bull market, but in a big bearish phase, that paper becomes worthless.

 In short the markets have to keep making lower highs, but that idea will not work if another 4th wave was still in progress. Lower lows, and lower highs, sure didn’t work in the 2015 bear market and it will not work now. 

E-Mini SP500 Intraday Crash Review With VIX Commentary

Keeping an eye on the VIX helps to confirm that fear is being injected back into the stock markets. So far all bottom open gaps,  have been closed off. Also, no gaps have opened for the start of this VIX rally, which also is a very good sign.  At least the threat of an instant VIX crash is reduced, but corrections can happen after every vertical move. 

The big VIX, is the ” Mother Of All Diagonal wave structures”, so any VIX wave counts, will overlap in many of the critical waves.

 I reworked the entire May and June rally to the 19th of June peak as diagonal “C” wave. This has  ended with another 3 wave move to record highs.  This record finished with a 2452 price peak,  and is now hell bent on going south like geese in the winter.

 

 

That’s what it looks like, but I would like to see more, so there is no hope for this stock market to add on another leg to another record high.

 

I have mentioned it many times that any new record high could also be the last record high, but that would also be the last high for this year. At the 2415 price level  the SP500 would hit the line in the sand, but this bottom could be more like quicksand. Wild counter rallies should always be expected, as the speculators are still in a bear trap. 

It is very important to understand that any 3 wave move to new highs can be just part of a bigger diagonal or even an ending triangle. Even though I came close to exhausting my wave count options, there is sill a wild card left of another potential big 3 wave move to the upside.  The odds of that happening would be reduced as soon as the SP500 slips well below that 2415 price level.

WTI Crude oil Intraday Rally Review

About 6 days ago, crude oil hit a bottom. It has now been in a rally that has waves in it that overlap at critical counts. This instantly suggests another diagonal sequence has started. The challenging part about this is that crude oil can be on a bigger “B” wave bullish phase, so until another rally comes to an end with another spike, I will work this rally as a potential “C” wave in Minor degree.

The Gold/Oil ratio has not made any radical shift, and is now sitting at a bit over 28:1.  Many may be thinking that oil is dead, and that electric cars will take over. I doubt that very much, as 80% of the world uses fossil fuels to generate power, and electric cars would not sell if they are not subsidized by the tax payer. Crude oil is still in a bigger bullish phase where we could see oil above $89 again. 

Another bullish phase right in the middle of another expert declared world oil glut is pretty normal. Either oil plunges to new record lows, below the late 2015 low, or it will eventually soar again well over the near term $60 price level. One of these scenarios will end up being the winner. I believe in the contrarians ability to read the markets better than the mainstream ever can. 

Oil is making another correction as I post, so it will be a test to see if another leg up appears.

Deloitte: Oil Firms Face Increasingly Sophisticated Cyber Attacks | OilPrice.com

Very few people don’t understand that international hacking has spread dramatically, and oil seems to be another popular asset class that they can attack. Hackers hacked the NSA hacking tools and then sent them out on the internet for other hackers to use.

Cyber warfare is in full swing, and there seems to be no end in sight at this time. 

E-Mini DOW 30 Intraday Decline Review

Just before I worked on this chart, I looked at the DJIA from a weekly chart perspective. We would need a magnifying glass to see any movement at all. The 3 degrees I am starting with, is still not small enough as I have used up Micro, Submicro and Miniscule degree levels. I would have to dip into my extra 3 custom degree levels to keep going. 

This is not a big deal, as degree levels can be adjusted when we progress for another few more weeks. The markets are now soaring as I post, so it will be critical for this rally to stop, and then reverse. When the markets constantly produce, lower highs, with lower lows as well, then this is a good sign that the markets are over on a bigger bearish side already. 

Violent swings in both directions, end up attacking bulls and bears alike, as they both get into mini traps. I included Cycle degree wave 3 for the big top, but it’s not glued down just yet. Everybody that has been reading my work for any length of time, knows what the three choices are. 

In the beginning very few people know that a bear market is even coming, as we would have to hit a 20% correction before the herd of analysts will declare it a bear market.  This is still over 4000 DOW points away, which would retrace the entire Trump rally. 

Gold Intraday New Low Review

What looked like a promising run on another leg up, gold died this morning and crashed to a new low. Now we have what looks like a set of 5 waves heading down.   This could all bring us to another “A” wave if we are just part of the way through. Gold could react violently to the upside, but gold would run out of steam at some point. 

Right from the early June peak, gold started with a diagonal move,  so that set the tone for the rest of the decline. Is there a chance that one single zigzag, is still in progress? There sure is,  but then I would want to see gold head a bit lower in the short term. 

Longer term I’m very bullish on gold, but short term it sure does not look like it is heading north.  Looks are deceiving with Elliott Waves, especially in commodities where diagonal waves seem to dominate.  Silver is another one of those assets that have extreme diagonal waves in its structure. When I see analysts struggling to fill in a silver bull market with impulse waves, then I know they don’t understand diagonal wave structures. 

E-Mini DOW 30 Intraday Rally And Crash Review

We are still dealing with diagonal wave structures, and at this time it sure looks like another inverted zigzag has completed. Now we have another mean looking spike to the downside, which should take out the short term support  for wave 1.  I start with very small degree levels, and in this case wave 2 in Micro degree has already ended.

To confirm this particular move the DJIA should travel to newer lows, but unless some real wild little diagonal moves up, are still in effect, we can have a bullish reaction, breakout to new record highs.

At the 21,220 price level the DOW could produce a H&S type setup, which could be bullish in the short term, but would be a bearish setup at a bigger scale.

On a Cycle degree scale this market is going down, and once the emotional day traders find out they are not making any gains, then they will sell. The only reason they are in this market because it was going up. They love to buy high, as they shun anything that is pointing down. Insiders (smart money) are long gone out of this market, as a big group of insiders increased their pace of selling in May.

We are coming up with dual July holiday dates next week, so there will be reduced postings during that time.

Mini SP500 Intraday Update

Last week the SP500 started to build a base and then started to soar. Last night the Sp500 carried on and now has peaked as I post.  Sure, I would like to see this rally come to a screeching halt, as it also has gone vertical on a smaller scale. A vertical move is a very fast move, which usually happens before an impending correction, or on the ends before any major reversals. There are errant spikes that do not show up when we  switch to line mode, but this seems to happen across many futures contracts. 

Just as fast as the SP500 has gone up, it can reverse and head straight back down, leaving the little spike in its wake.  Our mid June peak, has to hold as any start to a bear market has to produce lower highs as well.  Lower highs are produced by inverted flats and zigzags, which is the exact opposite of what happens in a bull market. 

All this stock market has to do is retrace this rally and crash below this quadruple base we see now.   This will help to confirm that a bigger bearish move, is already happening.  

On a very small scale, oil and the SP500 can crash together, which it is doing right now. The media will spin this in different ways, but in the longer run, they could separate and go their own merry way again. 

2017 Wheat Glut Review! Will the Glut Be Over Soon?

Dusty Fields Signal a Peak for the Global Wheat Glut – Bloomberg

When I read the story about the wheat glut, I was a bit surprised the wheat prices were still rather high. Like the story says, production and local weather should reduce any supply, which means that the glut will soon be over. There is very little in the shape of good clean impulse waves, so the 5 waves in Minor degree are diagonals. Large degree diagonals do happen, and many end with a zigzag ride to new highs.

I looked back further than 1980, with the potential for a 4th wave bottom in late 1999. Do you think the sun has any effect on global wheat production? It sure does as wheat prices could be used like a canary in a coal mine. In 1980 wheat prices peaked along with the solar cycle peak. Then wheat prices went sideways and down, but not before wheat prices peaked, at the bottom of the 1996 solar cycle.

From early 1996 wheat prices crashed and then soared in a wild ride, peaking  once again in early 2008. This tells us that wheat prices retreat when we get a start to another solar cycle. Even though it alternates, there are just too many peaks and gullies, when wheat prices were repelled or attracted like a magnet.

This will be very interesting to see if what wheat is showing us, is just another correction. Wheat prices could soar in the next 3-4 years, as it may take that long before solar cycle #24 ends. Wheat is not going to soar because of man-made global warming, it’s going to soar because of the solar cycles.

The bearish phase from the early 2008 top, is just a bit over 8 years long, which is pretty close to a Fibonacci number. I love the even Fibonacci numbers as they can supply good turning dates, to large bull market and even bear market runs. 

RUA, Russell 3000 Index Review

I thought I would show the wave positions of the Russell 3000, which gives us a broad look at the markets in the USA. My lowest degree is Minor degree, then Intermediate, with Primary degree wave 5 completing in 2017.  Cycle degree wave 3 will show once this market progresses with the next bear market.  Since 2000 we have 3 peaks that all need to find a label, that will last for the next 89-144 years. Guessing or just making cosmetic changes does not work with the EWP, because any single change has to be checked to make sure it still fits in the sequence to the higher degrees.

With respect to the highest degree level all my work is a minimum of two degrees lower than the majority of expert wave analysts are, so you will find no SC or GSC degree wave positions in any markets today.  Notice there are 2 sets of 4th waves in Intermediate degree, but they are in different positions and different in physical sizes as well. 

When we draw a line across the bottom at the 400 price level, we can see that the markets would be building  another huge base. We know this index cannot go to zero, but I was stupid enough in late 2008 to try 5 waves down in Primary degree, as well. Every attempt at finding wave 2 in a Primary degree rally failed.

When an extended wave 3 bull market starts to complete, we will keep getting 3-4-5 wave sequences into the early 21st century. (2129)?

In early 2009 all the expert wave analysts didn’t see the big bull market coming, which gives no time for the contrarians to accumulate large positions.  There were many indicators in late 2008 that hinted strongly that the 2008 market crash was coming to an end, but all the wave analysts never paid attention to them. 

If Cycle degree wave 3 is ahead this year, then another wave 4 bear market will happen. It’s the 5th wave following any 4th wave in Cycle degree, that has to be drawn out in an idealized fashion. This is so we clearly see what the Idealized pattern has to be for what we need next.  The idealized pattern has been posted already so we can’t claim that we will be surprised by the next crash and the next Cycle degree bull market.

When we reach the bottom of  solar cycle #24 and solar cycle #25 has turned the corner, we can bet that the majority will be running from stocks, clicking the “sell” button as fast as they can.  Trillions of dollars gets thrown about by the power of a single finger.

Sure the bull market looks impressive, but a large group of insiders has left the “building”  already in May.  😎 

Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Update

In the last 3 days, gold has turned a corner. How big of a turning is always debatable, but the start sure looks like it contained an impulse. I started with a Micro degree and ended up using the smallest degree down to the Miniscule level. When need be, I will always adjust the degree levels, but at this time I think I can run it for a bit longer.

Any great impulse start can change to diagonal waves very quickly as this may just lead to another “A” wave for a diagonal wave 3.

Gold has the best chance of showing a much bigger impulse, so I remain bullish until the next potential strong correction. I will have to adjust my degree levels if we are heading up to a “D” wave, instead of a 5th wave in Intermediate degree.

Either way, the bigger bullish phase is not over, as higher lows help to confirm it. Any downside to the markets will just push the fearful to jump on the gold bandwagon again.  Gold always has to compete with the general stock market, but they have also moved together in the past. 2008-2011 was one of those times.

Gold stocks all saw bullish activity again today, which also helps to confirm gold’s bull market. Gold stocks did not thrash around like gold, which is also a very good sign. Not until all gold stocks become rather expensive to gold, do we have to take another major look at the bigger picture. 

 

Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Review

The DJIA stopped this morning and then started to soar again. How high this counter rally will go all depends if a real top has already completed well over 5 days ago. One thing is certain and that is we have overlapping waves that are not allowed to happen in an impulse. Any starting set of 5 waves can be a diagonal, and that’s what I look for, in the immediate future.

The DJIA has roared back so fast that it was approaching the top trend line already, while I post. Violent moves to the downside and then reverse violent moves to the upside, is the pattern we have to put up now and for the foreseeable future.

We need the markets to hold that bullish top on the 19th to help confirm and potential Cycle degree top we may have. So far it looks good, but in the markets, looks are always deceiving. It’s one of the reasons to be a bit more cautious before I plunk down a Cycle degree wave 3.   I doubt a new price low will have time to play out by the end of today, but by month’s end, with some big holidays in July in Canada and the USA, anything can still happen.

Eventually the summer could end up being pretty slow, so it is a good idea to keep the wave counting options open, at least for the short term. Long term this market is going down, and the only real question is which one of the three bear market patterns,  will we get?

We will hear horror stories about some DJIA 5000 price forecast, which they are playing the Doom and Gloom fear card. The more fear they can spread, the more money they can suck out of our pockets.  I’m pretty sure that future price forecasts of 3000, and 1000 will also hit the media, but those 3 price forecasts will never happen if a SC degree wave 3 is still well over a decade away. SC degree wave 3 is an extended wave as well, which may not finish until 2029, it surely did not end in 1929.

Where is GSC degree in all of this? Well, GSC degree wave 3 is still going strong, but we may not see any GSC  wave 3 peak until 2129. Any GSC degree wave count or forecast you may hear is based on 5th wave extensions not on wave 3 extensions. If someone comes along and can’t believe that wave 3’s are extended, then all we have to do is point to 1929 and remind them that 1929-1932 was a SC degree wave 1-2.  There was no Cycle degree wave 3-4 in the 70s, and until those two main patterns are wiped out and recounted, the debate of degree levels will rage on.

Those SC and GSC degree wave forecasters, have never confirmed any SC or GSC degree waves anywhere, and as a wave analyst, we need very specific wave counts to confirm any higher degree.

In the last 7 years not a single wave counting reader has come forward and told me they want to switch and help confirm any Cycle degree pattern. The EWP today is used as a short term trade setup, and therefore never saw the biggest bull market coming since the depression. This is pretty sad indeed, as missing a huge bull market should never have happened.

Contrarians do a much better job of reading tops and bottoms, and they are some of the wealthiest people in the world.

Insiders have sold out in May, which is not a good foundation for another major leg up.

Due to holidays and long weekends, I try to reduce any wave analysts, on our holidays. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Update

Since the bottom of the 15th of June, the Nasdaq has rallied which counts out as 5 waves. Since the 4th wave overlaps any first wave, this throws out any impulse, we may think we have.  Any impulse, that we could still be in must be an extended wave 3, as we would have to switch this move to a wave 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count.  Any impulse count would send the Nasdaq into new record highs, with very little problems. 

Insider Selling Skyrockets in May

Insider selling soared in May,  which does not bode well for the stock markets to continue into outer space.  I’m looking for some type of 5 wave decline as they indicate the direction of a new trend. The Nasdaq has not broken anymore world records for well over 2 weeks. When the markets do not keep on making record highs, investors and day traders will get pissed off and sell, if they no longer see that they are making gains in a stock bull market. Of course the bull market may have ended already, but since the herd is pretty slow, they may not figure this out, until the markets reach that popular 20% correction price level.  

When they do realize that the 20% dip is here and they claim a 20% bear market, then I would expect this market to make a huge counter rally. That could take the rest of the year to play out, but the last few weeks in October could give us a market crash much like 1987 did 30 years ago.   It only took 3 years for a major bear market to play out from 1929 to 1932, so why should a bear market with one lower degree, be any longer?

Of course doom and gloom is the name of the game as fear is a tool to control the masses. By far the biggest use of fear is done in man-made climate change theory. 

Crude Oil Daily Chart And The $42 Glut!

Crude Slides Into Bear Market as Oversupply Distress Deepens – Bloomberg

The majority of analysts are very bearish towards crude oil, as another oil glut has been declared. Oil has now had a 20% decline which the majority says has entered bear market territory. Since about late 1999 I count this to be the 4th glut, but all at different prices.

Fundamentally a world oil glut could still send oil crashing, but history does not confirm this. Right in the middle of a media declared oil glut, crude oil stopped going down, and then started to  soar. This is not rocket science as it is easy to look back in chart history to confirm it.  The thing is that fundamentals change so fast as world oil production can come to a grinding halt, due to terrorists and dictator controlled economic plans. Even a storm in the gulf will shut down rigs, when they send workers to safety.                          

 Oil Tanker Storage Hits a 2017 Record Despite OPEC’s Cuts – Bloomberg

The favorite trick is to send oil into storage in large oil tankers, and they float around waiting for a port to open. When prices drop like this, then the real consuming oil countries are buying while the traders are selling. 

Late yesterday, crude oil had bottomed again, and is making promising moves at this time. Of course, another wild rally and another wild drop can still happen, as the declining waves constantly overlap critical wave structures.  If a “C” wave bull market is still in the cards, then this “C” wave could be a better looking impulse wave, but I sure would not bet my life on it. 

The chance of oil still being in a “D” wave bullish phase is real, and until this market turns and shows us its true colors, oil is keeping us guessing. 

The Gold/Oil ratio has not shifted dramatically, and our present oil glut ratio is a bit under 29:1.  When this ratio compresses and we see a 14 or even a 10 to one ratio, then oil will become very expensive, and any bullish phase would soon implode.   

Mini DJIA Intraday Review: Is There More To Come?

In the last 2-3 days we have seen the markets decline and now has gone  sideways since yesterday. There is no way I can work this as a clean impulse so the diagonal wave counting must continue.  Right now the markets are in a bit of a rally so, and if this movie breaks out, and we are all ready over on the bearish side, then a new top must not happen. 

The longer this takes for the markets to return to making new record highs, the more discouraged investors will get, as they see no more gains.

Insider Selling Skyrockets in May

Regardless of what the wave count may be, insider selling soared last month, while retail investors were buying. Insider selling is a contrarian indicator, and it is warning that this bull market will die.  We are short of steaks to put on the barbecue this summer, so the stock bears have to slice and dice their way through the herd, until no more stocks bulls are left.  

As usual, we should always expect some wild rallies with spikes, until we can recognize that a bigger correction is starting to play out.  We need a lot more short term evidence, to make sure that the peak on the 19th of May will hold. 

I can no longer look at this market as a staunch bull, even though we may hit another record high. One day the daytrading herd will panic, and they will put their mouse over the sell button, and run to the hills. More and more protective sell orders will congregate below present prizes, but any lingering bull market mood will take some time to wear off or disappear.     

E-Mini SP500 Bullish Record Top Review

The SP500 started to turn late last night and has now made a pretty good decline. It is starting to dip into a potential previous wave one peak, but I would like to see a bit deeper into my “A” wave position before a potential diagonal 4th wave can still happen.

At this time the rally to new record highs crossed as a 3 wave pattern and not as a 5 wave pattern. Three wave bull markets are a clear indicator that a diagonal wave structure is in progress.  Now we have to watch and wait to see if this major top will hold.

One of these days the Cycle degree wave 3 will find a permanent home that will last for the next 100 year. Visualizing the idealized extended impulse that we must know how to draw out, is the key to in knowing what to look for. My wave counts are a minimum of two degrees lower, than what the majority of expert wave analysts, are presently using. Why this is so, is because the majority all work from a 4th wave base, (extended 5th waves) while I gave up on that idea in 2013.

The 5th waves are never that strong to extend from the 1932 bottom to our present top in 2017. Not only that, the majority of expert wave analysts see, dual large degree 5th wave extensions. Another 5th wave extension started after the 70’s bear market. Wow, two 5th wave extension in 85 years?  That kind of a setup may work on another planet, but they will never work on earth.

The only time we had a 5th wave extension was from 1987 to 2000, which was only in Minor degree. Many run the 1987 crash as a Primary wave 3-4 degree pattern, which again is a minimum of  two higher degrees than what I see it as.

We are faced with a potential Cycle degree 4th wave stock bear market, which is just a correction to an even bigger bull market to finish. Any 20% bear market correction means nothing, and any price bottom will not hold except on a temporary basis.

Gold Intraday Bearish Phase Review

I’m still counting gold as a potential 5 wave diagonal bull market, but that may have to go into hibernation if this keeps up. We are only about $28 from gold crashing below $1215 which will kill one big part of my bullish scenario. Below $2015 I would have to take that bullish phase from the May bottom,  and look for a potential inverted zigzag. 

There are no real support levels on the way down, as there is no major dip in the May 2017 rally. Even the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree did not hold. Wave 2 bottoms can go well over 60% retracement and at the worst it could retrace 99.9999% of the entire bullish phase before we can call it completely dead. Even an 80% retracement can still happen as well. 

With most corrections I use, 20, 40, 60 or 80% retracements going up and down, but retracement levels do not mean that much when we really don’t know where we are. I spent years calculating retracement levels and rarely do the work they way they calculate them in the EWP. 

Most of the time I have to keep 3 potential wave counts going, and the trick is to eliminate the wave patterns that just refuse to fit well. This is also the main reason why I review the bigger degree charts as much as I do. 

Yes, we still could see a bit of a downside, but this bearish phase has been going on a bit too long for the degree that I’m using.

Longer term I retain my bullish outlook, but I may have to switch back to my “D” wave bull market, if this bearish phase doesn’t turn soon.  

Crude Oil August Daily Chart Crash Review

Just by switching between daily and weekly charts and with little effort, we can create different wave counts at will.  On a weekly chart the two overlapping waves are very hard to see, and the price peak also changes.  I think the problem is so bad that I see many wave analysts counting with, (WXY) waves.

This morning crude oil stopped at $43 and is in a small rally. It would be nice to see the end of this bearish run, which has now stretched into the 6th month.  Wishing for it to end and really ending is always the chance that we take. We have talked about that $44 price level many times before, and now crude oil is pushing all the bearish buttons, constantly trapping the oil bulls.

At this rate, I may have to switch and count the January 2017 high as a 4th wave top. That would be the worst nightmare position  to be in, but in the long run this super bearish scenario is still a long way away. Mind you, when oil goes down for the kill, it can do this very rapidly, but also turn on a dime when a new low is established.

Due to the little spike we have, I’m expecting a rally, but how long and how far the counter rally can go to, is also a crap shoot.

All the bearish forecasts in the world will mean nothing if they have no clue where the oil price will go after any bearish price low has been achieved.

Nasdaq Intraday Crash Bullish Phase Review

The Nasdaq has never recovered from the, “Big Dip”,  which had its top 10 days ago. Technically the Nasdaq may have crossed the line between a bull market correction and the start of a bear market.  Right now the Nasdaq has just completed a 3 wave run, while the same pattern pushed to new highs with the SP500 and a few other indices. 

Many times analysts may say that the, “Pattern is clear” but I disagree as it all depends on where we count from. They said the pattern was clear back in March 2009, but yet they all missed the biggest bull market since the depression.  The majority of investors are bullish beyond reason, still expecting a long bull market to play out. Short term this can always happen, as this three wave pattern, can turn into a 5 wave pattern by the end of the week.   Diagonals can act like this, and they should be labeled a different way, to distinctly tell them apart from idealized impulse waves. The EWP book does not show us a good example of labeling diagonal waves, but on page 89 Figure 1-19 they do.

Since about 2013 I have used the ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4 and ABC5 labeling method, as to make sure the two are distinctly different. Due to space restrictions, this cannot always be done correctly. Any 5th wave can contain an ending diagonal, so I allow this in all degree levels, up or down.

This market has to show us that inverted zigzags dominate the impending decline, or at least show some bad looking impulse waves.  The Nasdaq has come to a small sharp bottom as I post, so anything can still happen with the rest of this week. 

RBOB Gasoline Blendstock 2008-2017 Review


Since crude oil is being stubborn in trying to find a bottom, so looking at the Gasoline Blendstock futures may give a better bigger scale picture.  Well, that hope was dashed, when I saw that gasoline did not exceed the 2008 crash low. Besides not producing a new record low in 2016, we also have what looks like a huge gap still open. This gap will get closed, but I doubt it will get closed this time around.

This gap also tells us that after some future bull market top, gasoline can once again crash and go well below the gap, closing it in the process.  For now I will keep a potential triangle going, with the “A” wave, already completed. I can’t say that much for any potential Minor degree “B” wave being completed. 

With a potential triangle still in progress, we could get strong  resistance, at the top declining trend line.   This may still take all of 2017 before we can see that this market is confirming anything. There are many refining production problems that can happen, with maintenance shutdowns, or terrorists blowing up pipelines. 

Short term we can still see downside, but longer term I look at it from a big bullish phase still to come.

SP500 Intraday New Record High Review

With all my index wave counts, we have now switched to the September contracts as there are no more June contracts left. There are only 4 contracts in the entire year, so a jump to September is very normal.  The markets, including this SP500 chart have gone wild, with mad emotional swings in both directions. 

The wild swings are signs that this market is unstable, but we know they can carry on like this much longer than we have the patience for.  From the 15th bottom the SP500 has now crossed to new record highs with a 3 wave pattern.  This could be part of a potential ending diagonal as well. The Russell 2000 also had basically the same pattern at the top, which helps to make the case that another correction is due, or the end of a big bull market can finally happen. 

Short term we are running low on the intraday possibilities, so any move down would give us more options to choose from.

These markets are pointing to a potential wave 3 peak in Cycle degree, and I have been building a potential bear market for some time already. Bull market tops are the breeding grounds for bear markets. Visualizing the idealized chart for the next 100 years will give us the wave counts needed to fulfill all the wave 3 extensions still to come. We are nowhere near SC degree wave 3 yet, as SC degree wave 3 must also extend. The wave “zero” start to SC degree wave 3, was in 1932 

 Any wave 3 peak in SC degree is still over a decade away, with any GSC degree top stretching closer to being another 89 to 100 years away. As time goes on,  my language will include SC degree commentary more often as I try to build a picture of what is to come.

Of course if I missed something big, any other pattern could still happen, but like I said options are starting to dwindle. Building a potential big wave count, is also helpful to detect mistakes as early as possible.