10-Year T-Notes 1998-2017 Review

In general, when any bond declines in price, the rates go up. Government paper works on what they call the 10-Year T-Notes. Did this party end in late 2012, or are we still faced with a record move to the upside?  This bull market has been going on since 1982 from an inverted Cycle degree wave 3 base, and technically should end with a Cycle degree 4th wave top.  The entire bull market is a very messy pattern as it is next to impossible to find any decent or high quality 5 wave impulse sequences. Stocks are heading down in a potential 4th wave decline, so in that respect we want to keep our options open.

Investors can still seek refuge in T-Notes when carnage hits the stock markets. Long term this Cycle degree 4th wave rally should get completely retraced, but that could still take years before we will know for sure. Following the 2000 bottom, T-notes developed a typical diagonal wave structure which is a challenge to count out at anytime.